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+---- Thread: *How week 2 impacted your team's playoff odds (/showthread.php?tid=35175)
*How week 2 impacted your team's playoff odds - Ephenssta - 09-17-2021
How did your team’s playoff odds change after your week two performance? Read below to find out! If you missed the first edition of this, you can find that here.
Basically, I took the file, simmed it a bunch, tracked finishing placement within the conference, and then will take a look at how the chances of a team making the playoffs change week by week. After week one, the playoff odds for each team were:
ASFC:
1. Arizona – in playoffs 100% of the time
2. Austin – in playoffs 93% of the time
3. New York – in playoffs 47% of the time
4. San Jose – in playoffs 27% of the time
5. Honolulu – in playoffs 20% of the time
t6. Orange County – in playoffs 7% of the time
t6. New Orleans – in playoffs 7% of the time
NSFC:
The NSFC order is:
1. Sarasota – in playoffs 93% of the time
2. Colorado – in playoffs 80% of the time
3. Philadelphia – in playoffs 40% of the time
4. Berlin – in playoffs 33% of the time
5. Yellowknife – in playoffs 26% of the time
t6. Baltimore – in playoffs 13% of the time
t6. Chicago – in playoffs 13% of the time
As in the last time, we will start in the ASFC conference and go from least to most likely to make the playoffs.
After week one, both Orange County and New Orleans were tied for the least likely teams to make the playoffs out of a tough ASFC conference. This time around, New Orleans has fallen into sole possession of last place, despite beating the Liberty in week 2. With a 1-1 record, it seems a little odd to me that NOLA’s chances aren’t better at this point, but the results are clear. In all the sims I ran, NOLA never managed to make the playoffs and averaged a finishing position of 6.5, which is worse than their average of 6.2 the week before. Their most common finishing position was dead last in the conference and their appearances ranged from fourth to last. I get the feeling this change in their odds has more to do with the performance of other teams than their own, as you would expect a win to boost your playoff odds. Although it also didn’t help that their win came at the expense of a team from the NSFC. A win is still a win, though, and I would definitely look for NOLA’s odds to dramatically improve if they can manage to win a few games within their conference.
While NOLA’s chances of making the playoffs fell to nill, Orange County’s stayed exactly the same despite a week 2 loss to Honolulu. The Otters managed to make the playoffs in about 7% of my sims. While their playoff chances did not change, their average finishing position rose from a low 5.9 in week 1 to a slightly-less-bad 5.1 after week two. The Otters playoff appearances all came from the third seed. Orange County, like NOLA, will have to find a way to win a few conference games if they want to boost their chances. Their best finish was third while their worst finishes saw them sitting in dead last. Their most common landing spot was sixth place. It is interesting to me that despite being 0-2 with a pair of losses to other teams within their conference, they still have better odds in my sims than NOLA. Perhaps the sim gods are just smiling on the Otters farther down the stretch. Only time will tell! For now, hope remains for OCO.
The third least likely team to make the playoffs in the ASFC division are the San Jose SaberCats. The toothy cats lost to New York in week 2 dropping their record to 1-1 early in the season and cutting their chances of making the playoffs almost exactly in half. After week 1, the SaberCats had an average finishing position of 4.6 and a playoff appearance rate of about 27%. Now, their average finishing position is 4.9 (down 0.3) and their playoff appearance rate was slashed to 13.3%. San Jose’s finishes ranged everywhere from the very top of the table to dead last. This is the first significant change to playoff chances we have seen as a result of a team losing a conference game. After week one, it seemed like San Jose was in a great position to capitalize and sneak into the playoffs if the Silverbacks struggled. By losing to the Silverbacks, though, we see San Jose’s chances take a significant hit. Despite this, they still have an outside shot at making the playoffs, and even some hope (though very, very slight) of winning the entire conference.
Next up are the Honolulu Hahalua. The Hahalua are coming off a win against Orange County, bringing their record on the young season to 2-0. They’re certainly off to a hot start this season and both of those wins being within the conference looks very good for them. Despite all this, their playoff appearance rate showed no change between weeks one and two, and their average finishing position actually dropped from 4.3 to 4.6 (-0.3 change). This is possibly the result of a couple things. Most likely, in my mind, is that the small change is due to the fact that the two teams they have won against were teams they were already expected to finish ahead of: NOLA and OCO. Additionally, the 4.3 to 4.6 average finishing position can probably be explained by a small sample size. I’m not running a ton of sims, so some variance can be expected just on that basis alone. The change is small enough that it’s likely not significant here. While the Hahalua are off to a good start and are winning the games they should be winning, to see any real movement they’ll have to manage to pull off some upsets. Until that happens, I don’t expect to see too much change in their playoff appearance rate or their average finishing position.
New York holds onto the third position this week. They beat the SaberCats 24-19, which is a significant win, as discussed in the SJS section. Having a game in hand over a team that was next-in-line for your spot is huge early in the season. The sim results showed that clearly. New York’s expected finishing position rose from 3.8 to 3.3 (+0.5) with the win and their playoff appearance rate improved from 46.7% to an impressive 73.3%. That’s a massive change in the right direction for New York. New York’s best finish in the sims I conducted was 2nd place and their floor was all the way down in sixth. There is still a lot of wiggle room around the middle of the table and New York has a lot of work to do if they want to secure a playoff spot for sure. But this week 2 win was an incredible way for them to bounce back and it did a lot of good towards putting them into the playoffs.
The teams who were favorites for the 1 and 2 seeds in the ASFC played each other in week 2, and Austin managed to pull off the upset. This did a couple things. Austin’s playoff chances were not impacted. They remained exactly the same at 93.3%. BUT, it lowered Arizona’s playoff appearance rate to equaling Austin’s at 93.3%. Additionally, it dropped Arizona’s average finishing position from 1.4 to 1.8 (-0.4) and raised Austin’s from 1.9 to 1.7 (+0.2). Arizona’s most common landing spot dropped from first in the division to second and Austin was more than happy to capitalize. Austin finished first more often than anywhere else. Both teams had a best finishing place of first overall. Austin’s worst finish in my sims was fourth, while Arizona’s worst finish was fifth. After week one, Arizona never finished lower than second. I think this game was a really interesting case study of how one game early in the season can dramatically change the outlook of the rest of the season for a couple teams. While Austin’s chances didn’t increase, Arizona’s took a 7.something% hit and their average finishing position drops them down significantly. Their floor changed to missing the playoffs entirely. Austin’s win here really was impressive. Ultimately, I doubt it changes too much as both of these teams were the heavy favorites to make up the top two, but it is still interesting to see the ripples the game could have. It’s still very early in the season, so there is plenty of time for either of these teams to make up some extra ground or to collapse for the rest of the league to enjoy.
ASFC:
T1: Arizona – made playoffs 93% of the time
T1: Austin – made playoffs 93% of the time
3: New York – made playoffs 73% of the time
4. Honolulu – made playoffs 20% of the time
5. San Jose – made layoffs 13% of the time
6. Orange County – made playoffs 7% of the time
7. New Orleans – made playoffs 0% of the time
Changes from week 1:
Austin and Arizona are now tied at making the playoffs 93% of the time
Honolulu is now more likely to make the playoffs than San Jose
Now, we move on to the other conference: the NSFC. I feel like I keep mixing up the word conference and division. Ultimately, I don’t think it matters, but conference is probably the technically correct terminology and I’ll try to stick to that from here on out.
In sole possession of dead last this time around are the Yellowknife Wraiths. After week one, the Wraiths had a 27% appearance rate in the playoffs. Now, they sit as the only team in the NSFC at 0-2 with both losses being in the conference. In week 2, they lost to Baltimore, which saw their average finishing position drop from 5.5 to an abysmal 6.6 (-1.1). Their playoff appearance rate dropped all the way down to 0%. Their bets finish in the sims I ran was fifth and their worst was seventh. They never made a playoff appearance. I think the Yellowknife situation is just about the opposite of the one we saw in NOLA. NOLA had wins against teams they were expected to be better than, so their appearance rate and finishing position remained about the same. Here, YKW lost a game to a team they were most likely going to finish ahead of, and their chances suffered heavily because of it. Arizona, who also was upset in week 2, was pretty much a lock for the playoffs and one loss isn’t enough to change that. But for a team on the fringe, a single loss can have a massive impact. If Yellowknife was a fringe team before, they don’t appear to be one anymore.
Speaking of Baltimore, they are the next team appearing on the list. With their win over Yellowknife, the Hawks saw some improvement in their results. Their average finishing position changed slightly from 5.3 to 5.1 (+0.2), but again that could be the result either of their win, the small sample size, or some combination of both. In any case, their playoff appearance rate jumped from 13% in week one to 20% after their win. It isn’t a huge jump, but it keeps them in the running for that coveted playoff appearance. The Hawks finished in sixth most frequently, but they never finished below sixth and shot up as high as third. The Hawks are continuing to show some real upside and the rebuild might be starting to pay off for them. I doubt they make too much of a splash this season, but we’ll see how things play out for them in the next couple seasons.
Next on our NSFC list are the Chicago Butchers. Chicago finishes week 2 at 1-1 and are coming off a dominant performance against the hopeful Yeti. That upset, as we have seen in some other games, has a potential to give a team a massive boost. Chicago is not a exception. Their average finishing position rose from 4.8 to 4.1 and their playoff appearance rate saw a dramatic increase from 13% to 33%. The Butchers finished between second and seventh, but finished most frequently in fourth. That kind of a win is exactly what a team needs to not only keep playoff hopes alive, but to significantly boost their chances and position themselves well to capitalize later should a good opportunity present itself. The Butchers are still on the outside looking in at this moment, but are in a generally good position to keep themselves in the mix as the season progresses.
Next up is Berlin. They are the fourth most likely team to make the playoffs at this point in the season. With most of the conference being 1-1 to date, who knows how things will eventually shake out. Berlin is coming off a win against the Sailfish, who appeared to be the early favorites in the NSFC. The win handed Berlin a significant jump in their average finishing position. They went from 4.5 to 3.7 in that regard. Their layoff chances did jump, but by less than I expected. The FireSalamanders now appear in the playoffs 40% of the time, up from 33%. Berlin finished anywhere from 1st to 7th, but their most frequent finishing position was in third. I wonder if the NSFC suffered too many upsets in one week. Sometimes you need a bit of help. Berlin gets that with Colorado and Sarasota both taking a loss, but perhaps the difference is lessened now as a result. In any case, Berlin is even better poised than Chicago to spring on any gap for that third playoff spot. It seems like we should have a good scrap for it between Berlin, Chicago, and Philly with Baltimore having a small shot at getting involved as well.
Philly, who comes next, is in an interesting position this season. So far, they have the best grasp on that third seed. Despite taking a loss to the SecondLine, their average finishing position jumped from 4.1 to 3.8 (yes, that’s worse than Berlin’s). Their playoff chances improved slightly from 40% to 46.7%. Despite the worse average finishing position than Berlin, Philly has slightly better chances at making a playoff appearance based on what we’ve seen so far. Their most frequent finishing position was third, but they also managed to finish anywhere between first and seventh. A handful of teams have appeared across the entire spectrum in the conference, which makes it that much harder to actually predict where people win finish. Because, as stated a few times, Philly seems both in a good position to make the playoffs, but also could be all the way at the bottom of the conference. I don’t think they’ll fall all the way to last, but I do think they have a good chance at appearing anywhere between third and fifth. Anything outside of that range would surprise me, but it’s clearly still possible.
Next up is a significant change from week one. Sarasota’s average finishing position dropped substantially as a result of their loss to Berlin in week two. They fell from an average placement of 1.7 to 2.7, dropping a full place on average. Their playoff chances are still good at 73%, but they are nowhere near the high 93.3% that they were after week one. That tough loss to Berlin really weakened their position atop the table. It is interesting that both teams at the top suffered harsh losses in their second games and saw themselves slipping a little bit as a result. Sarasota’s final resting spot in the standings ranged anywhere form 1st to 6th, which is still an incredible range for a team that is still making the playoffs about three out of every four sims. Their game against the Yeti in week three should be that much more interesting now, as those are the two teams who seem to be the early favorites for the top seed in the conference.
And speaking of the Yeti, they are now the team most likely to make the playoffs in the NSFC this season. Despite a loss to Chicago in week two, the Yeti take advantage of Sarasota’s loss to claim the top spot. Their average finishing position in the post-week 2 sims was 2.0 (up from 2.2), and their most frequent finish was first. They made the playoffs in 86.7% of my sims, which is up from 80% even in week one. The sim clearly isn’t too bothered by that week two loss, which is good because it had me worried. In any case, it’s far too early to relax because the season is young and anything can happen in this sim. Colorado finished anywhere between first and fifth, which is less dramatic than some other teams but still a pretty significant range. The Yeti could realistically miss the playoffs again, but that would take a lot of movement to happen. I expect we’ll see the Yeti back in the postseason.
The final NSFC standings are:
1. Colorado – made the playoffs 87% of the time
2. Sarasota – made the playoffs 73% of the time
3. Philadelphia – made the playoffs 47% of the time
4. Berlin – made the playoffs 40% of the time
5. Chicago – made the playoffs 33% of the time
6. Baltimore – made the playoffs 20% of the time
7. Yellowknife – made the playoffs 0% of the time.
RE: How week 2 impacted your team's playoff odds - Pat - 09-17-2021
Please update this after every sim night (so I guess after W4 next?). This is such a fun read.
RE: How week 2 impacted your team's playoff odds - Mooty99 - 09-17-2021
I have been really enjoying this series so far, thanks and hope it continues!
RE: How week 2 impacted your team's playoff odds - Ephenssta - 09-17-2021
(09-17-2021, 11:32 AM)Pat Wrote: Please update this after every sim night (so I guess after W4 next?). This is such a fun read.
I'd love to. Realistically I'm not sure I'll have the 60-90 minutes after every sim night to do this, but I hope that at the bare minimum I can do a few throughout the season and then have an overview with nice charts and stuff at the end of the season. It's been fun to put together and write, so I'm glad there's some enjoyment on the reading end too!
RE: How week 2 impacted your team's playoff odds - unconfident - 09-17-2021
RE: How week 2 impacted your team's playoff odds - Oles - 09-17-2021
My favorite part of this is the fact that Colorado got messed up at home by us, only for their playoff percentage to increase. What a weird turn of events but the sim do be like that
RE: How week 2 impacted your team's playoff odds - Ephenssta - 09-19-2021
(09-17-2021, 05:04 PM)Oles Wrote: My favorite part of this is the fact that Colorado got messed up at home by us, only for their playoff percentage to increase. What a weird turn of events but the sim do be like that
Yeah, some of the stuff like that is interesting. Shows how much of it depends on not only what your team doing, but also what the other teams in the conference get done (or don't). And it feels like no matter how good or bad the Yeti are, we also split the series against Chicago. Been a rela pain in the butt lately lol