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+---- Thread: *Burfict on Arizona S31 chances (/showthread.php?tid=35543)
*Burfict on Arizona S31 chances - y2bobman - 10-18-2021
Now you could say that there is a little pressure on the Arizona Outlaws to maybe, just maybe, finally bring home an Ultimus trophy under the leadership of the esteemed duo of Crunk and Z whiz. But on the other hand, this new Sim has been doing some crazy things as of late (let's just ignore the whole re sim situation, some of those results were tasty!). I wrote recently that this should be, in some eyes, the best chance the Arizona Outlaws have; the quality S25 roster players at a peak with support around them from regressing and building talent. And it's really weird. Usually I'd be really confident, perhaps almost cocky. We are a great football team, it just doesn't work out on the field when it matters it seems. And this season has been a great example of this. Roster wise we are stronger, but the divisional record doesn't really match up to what we have laid down the last few seasons in terms of a winning percentage.
So because the sim will do whatever it wants, I'm going to do the same. I'm going to make a prediction on how things are going to pan out for us. And first up is the wildcard game against the Honoluli Hahalua.
Honolulu have had a really good season. Considering they were 6 and 10 in season 30, to go above .500 and end on 9 and 7 is impressive. I mean the Arizona Outlaws on the other hand have fallen from a dominant 14 and 2 to match that Honolulu total of 9 and 7. So on paper, two equally matched teams, the kinda match the neutral can appreciate.
Now in both the competitive games this season the Outlaws have come out on top. In week 4 the tie ended 24 to 17, victory coming in a fourth quarter where they scored 10 unanswered points. Offensively the difference was between the two QBs. Christ Jr. struggled for consistency, throwing 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions for a passing rating of 69.3 (he was also sacked 3 times, including once by good old L'Gazzy Burfict). Compare that to the reigning MVP Cortez, who threw 2 touchdowns, no interceptions and came away with a passing rating of 108.5. Interestingly Honolulu threw the ball 50 times (compared to the Outlaws 30) which suggested a leaning towards the passing game. But it was running back Cobra Kai who took offensive player of the game with two touchdowns; rushing for one and catching the other. Defensively Jadakiss excelled for the Outlaws with the 2 interceptions and as a team they managed 5 pass deflections.
In week 15 the Outlaws came out winners again, this time 16 to 10. Unlike the first fixture they took the lead in the first quarter and thankfully maintained this. Both QBs struggled, sharing 7 sacks between them. Interestingly Honolulu changed their tact, passing a little less (and improving the completion percentage) and rushing more frequently. Kai was their main man again, although shutting him down is easier said than done. The Outlaws running game left empty handed, so those two will be looking to ensure this doesn't repeat itself in the wildcard game. Defensively, well, I'll give myself / L'Gazzy Burfict credit again for a dominant LB performance, as well as Crunk who managed 10 tackles and 3 pass deflections. For Honolulu, star LB Fields was consistent and Lavigne came up with 3 pass deflections.
So where does that leave us. Well, I have to back my team here in the wildcard game and opt for the Arizona Outlaws to take victory. My money is on a standout performance from Deady Memes as he takes in 3 touchdowns (only one of them from 3rd and inches), and defensively from Smart (7 tackles, 2 sacks) and Triplet with a couple of interceptions. Final score, 28-17. Not that me calling this will surprise anyone as I can see its the dominant prediction in the playoff thread.
So on to the ASFC championship game. And this is where I don't feel like I'm being myself, I'm not shouting about the Arizona Outlaws from the rooftops. Perhaps this is rightly so. I mean, the Austin Copperheads have had a great season, finishing with a record of 12 wins and 4 defeats. They also managed to beat the Outlaws in both of the games this season.
First up the teams met in week 2 in Arizona, a game which was decided by a field goal with only 22 seconds left on the clock. Looking at the stats from that occasion one thing is clear; the Outlaws did not protect their QB Cortez well enough. And when you don't protect your QB they get sacked, 4 times in this case. And what makes it more frustrating is when on his feet Cortez pulled in a passer rating of over 106 (throwing for 2 touchdowns). Just a quality QB when things go his way. By contrast Daytona struggled to impact via his receivers and it was a committed plan from the two running backs which brought in the points. Defensively I've mentioned Cortez getting sacked 4 times (Thomaslacher with 2 of these) and in truth yhe Outlaws struggled, unable to make a real impact.
Moving on to the second match up and this was very much a clear victory for Austin. The home field advantage (which they will have in the ASFC championship game) proved its worth as they ran out victorious, 44 points to 20.
Again, the Outlaws did not give Cortez enough protection and he went down 3 times. And again, the Copperheads running game proved the difference, or really I should say Vampire did. They rushed for 2 and caught for 2 in a PoG performance. The Outlaws focused on their passing game, giving minimal snaps to their on running back duo threat. Perhaps the coach will mix this up should the teams meet once again? Defensively you can see how hard the Outlaws were made to work just by looking at the number of tackles made, with Smart and Jones up at the top. Austin had the ball a lot, moved it well, and we're the worthy winners.
So where does that leave me in terms of an Outlaws prediction? Well my heart will always be with Arizona.... but I just feel this year we have just not generated the momentum needed to get through this one. I expect it to be close, but can see Austin coming out on top, 24 points to 17. As for L'Gazzy Burfict, well I'm still waiting for a moment for him to make a pick 6. So it would be typical for this to happen in a losing ASFC championship game. It would be the Arizona way. Look out for a strong rushing game from Austin and a faultless kicking game from Cade York for Arizona.
In terms of Ultimus, the winning team will most certainly be all about the As. A team from the ASFC, a team starting with the letter A. Would love my heart to be right though. We shall see.
L'Gazzy Burfict Predictions in full for reference
ASFC Wildcard Game
Honolulu Hahalua 17 - 28 Arizona Outlaws
ASFC Championship Game
Arizona Outlaws 17 - 24 Austin Copperheads
NSFC Wildcard Game
Chicago Butchers 3 - 14 Sarasota Sailfish
NSFC Championship Game
Saraaota Sailfish 31 - 34 Colorado Yeti
Ultimus Game
Austin Copperheads 21 - 20 Colorado Yeti
Ultimus Champions - Austin Copperheads
Disclaimer; I am terrible at predictions so the liklihood of any of these being remotely close, well, you'll see. But I do feel that an ASFC team will be crowned Ultimus champions. If my heart was deciding this all I'd love the Outlaws to take down the Sailfish in the Ultimus game, revenge for what happened in Season 30.
Code:
1303RE: Burfict on Arizona S31 chances - Mooty99 - 10-18-2021
This reality please and thank you
RE: Burfict on Arizona S31 chances - Crodyman - 10-18-2021
W o w
Thought CHI would only get 3?
:simon:
RE: Burfict on Arizona S31 chances - y2bobman - 10-19-2021
(10-18-2021, 11:14 PM)Crodyman Wrote: W o w
Thought CHI would only get 3?
:simon:
To be fair the sim thought the same up until HT.
Never trust my predictions; good luck in the championship game... I'm off to buy a big calculator to figure out this regression business.
RE: Burfict on Arizona S31 chances - Pat - 10-19-2021
(10-19-2021, 02:40 AM)y2bobman Wrote:(10-18-2021, 11:14 PM)Crodyman Wrote: W o w
Thought CHI would only get 3?
:simon:
To be fair the sim thought the same up until HT.
Never trust my predictions; good luck in the championship game... I'm off to buy a big calculator to figure out this regression business.
...does the physical size of the calculator make it do things better?
RE: Burfict on Arizona S31 chances - unconfident - 10-19-2021
(10-19-2021, 08:02 AM)Pat Wrote:(10-19-2021, 02:40 AM)y2bobman Wrote: To be fair the sim thought the same up until HT.
Never trust my predictions; good luck in the championship game... I'm off to buy a big calculator to figure out this regression business.
...does the physical size of the calculator make it do things better?
The bigger the better. At least thats what I've been told. I wouldn't know
RE: Burfict on Arizona S31 chances - Crodyman - 10-19-2021
Oh no. I regress this offseason. S25 boys