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*S33 ISFL Fantasy Rankings - Pvtpenne - 01-03-2022
Well well well, if it isn't fantasy draft season again. Unlike last season I was able to put more time and effort into making these rankings and hopefully that bears fruit throughout the season and I am more correct in S33 than in S32. Last season my rankings were mostly just names with a tid bit of analysis here and there, this season it's going to be much more thorough and I am going to make a lot more money. I believe all of the ISFL rosters are finalized, callups have happened, position changes have happened, the draft is in the past, regression has came and went. The only thing from here on out that can really screw me over is another blockbuster trade like Goat Tank to Berlin, maybe we will get Zoe Watts to YKW or something crazy.
Running Backs
Tier 1: The Good Bellcows
John Huntsman
Cobra Kai
Zach DiNozzo
Goat Tank
Madison Hayes
Lonnie Jackson
I named this tier 'The Good Bellcows' because I expect everyone in this tier to dominate the touches out of their team's backfield; I added the word good in there because we will talk about some 'bellcows' later on that won't see as much volume or don't have quite the TPE of the players in this tier and I think the difference is enough to warrant the qualifier of a 'Good' Bellcow.
Huntsman might be a little surprising at RB1 in my rankings, he kind of came out of nowhere last season surpassing J'Vathon as the RB1 in Sarasota and did pretty well as the lead guy there. I'm bumping him up a little bit from his S32 finish because of how Sarasota's team has changed this offseason. From bringing up a rookie QB, to the TPE gap between Huntsman and J'Vathon widening as well as some other regression across the offense, I expect SAR to run the ball a lot more in S33 with Huntsman being a big beneficiary of that.
Next up is Cobra Kai who has been at the top of the rankings for a few seasons now. The Honolulu offense is pretty similar to that of last season except for the WR2 leaving in free agency. Kai saw a little bit of regression but the rest of the pieces that are still there are nearing their peaks in terms of TPE. In S32 Honolulu had the 2nd fewest rushing attempts and 2nd most passing attempts. Either they run the ball more this season and Kai improves on his S32 fantasy finish or they pass an equal amount and Kai is more involved in the passing game since there are only 2 WRs on the roster. Either way Kai should be having a better season and improving on his RB6 finish from last season.
Zach DiNozzo aka Baby Goat Tank is picking up where GT left off in OCO. Extreme volume, efficiency be damned. DiNozzo had almost 100 more carries than the 2nd highest volume RB and 150 more than #3. I don't expect this to change as the OCO offense is pretty similar and should lean on their best offensive weapon.
Goat Tank all the way down at 4? Am I sure? Well, no I'm not 100% sure about any of this. That said, Berlin has a great QB and some very good receiving options to boot. They had the 4th fewest pass attempts and 3rd most rushing attempts. That said, some of the season they had Jay Cue as well which could have led them to run more in the games they had both awesome RBs. If Berlin approaches S33 with more of a balance attack between rushes and passes, GT could fall a tiny bit in his fantasy finish.
If I could make a Tier 1.5, I would put Madison Hayes in it. I'm not as big of a Hayes believer as the other 4 in this tier, but Hayes could be in for a big season. So what's pushing Hayes up from RB16 in S32 to being ranked RB5 in S33? Well Rejoignez Lordresombre moved from RB to WR and Lordresombre/Hayes were in a pretty close to 50/50 volume split last season. This singular move should propel Hayes up from being borderline relevant in fantasy to being an RB1.
Lonnie Jackson would also make my tier 1.5 if it existed. He was in a like 60/40 touch split last season, but the RB he was splitting with switched to safety. So Jackson will be a bellcow, but I could see Philly being a heavy passing attack. Having a better QB on his team and less TPE than Hayes are why I have them in this order.
Tier 2: The Committees
Jay Cue Jr.
Jim the Vampire
Zoe Watts
Busch Goose
Dante King
Deadly Memes
So this tier is full of 6 RBs from 3 teams, 2 RBs per team that could very well be in full blown committees. If any of these 6 RBs were playing without the other on their team, they would easily be top 5 independently. I'll talk about each pair of RBs now.
Arizona: Jay Cue & Deadly Memes. Arizona went out and traded for Jay Cue to be their RB of the future and to overlap over Memes regression. Cue has a 150 TPE advantage on Memes and with Arizona having a rookie QB and their receiving weapons regressing, they should lean heavily on this duo to carry the offense. They will both be fantasy relevant but I expect Cue to be more valuable in fantasy.
Austin: Jim the Vampire & Zoe Watts. This pair bit me in my rankings last season because Austin basically used Jim the Vampire as a WR to fill a hole at that position and used Watts as a bellcow. Now Austin has 4 WRs on the team as well as a TE so I think this is back to being a RB committee with these 2 players being used mostly as RBs. That said, Jim the Vampire has a 250+ TPE advantage over Watts so if they are used like I expect, Jim should be the better RB for fantasy.
Baltimore: Busch Goose & Dante King. Baltimore is absolutely loaded with offensive weapons. They have a QB at almost 1k TPE, 2 RBs with 1k+ TPE, 3 WRs at or close to 1k TPE and a TE with 1k TPE. The Hawks had the 4th fewest rushing attempts last season and I expect that to change in S33 and for them to rush more. That said with so many offensive weapons I could see this RB pair underperforming these rankings. Goose has a 200 TPE advantage over King so he should have more fantasy value, that said King had more volume last season despite this TPE gap being about the same.
Tier 3: The Fringe
Drip Dad
Brandon Prince
Mason Malone
Mike Rotchburns
Tatsu Nakamura
Jamar Lackson
All of these guys have questions around them and their potential to produce for fantasy. For Drip Dad, Colorado only ran on a shocking 19% of plays in S32 and another play distribution like that isn't out of the question looking at the Yeti's receiving core. Prince and Rotchburns are both lead backs with a couple other RBs on the roster, on what should be relatively low powered offenses. Malone and Lackson are relatively low TPE, but could have high upside depending on how SJS uses them (Lackson might be used as a WR since SJS only has 2 of those on the roster). Nakamura is stuck behind a prime Goat Tank on the depth chart, but could still be a TD vulture in order to rack up that career TD count.
Wide Receivers
Tier 1: Studs
Bayley Cowabunga
Eleven Kendrick-Watts
Raphael Delacour
Bayley Cowabunga had a fantastic S32 and stays untouched by regression, unless the only 3 WRs who scored more fantasy points last season. Not to mention, Austin's QB still has over 1k TPE and the complimentary running attack should be productive as well. In addition, Cowabunga is by far the top receiving option for the Copperheads.
EKW let me down last season, but I'm going back to the well. Why? Because he had a ton of catches, a ton of yards, but just couldn't find the end zone as much as expected of a WR with that many opportunities. On top of that, the WR2 for Honolulu left for different pastures while the rest of the offense mainly stayed clean of regression. Basically I think the offense should be just as good, but EKW could get even more volume; sprinkle in some better touchdown luck and this could be a special season.
Raphael Delacour was a top 5 receiver and I don't see any reason that season can't be repeated. Like I mentioned in the Drip Dad section, Colorado threw the ball 81% of the time. Delacour is still the top dog in COL, COL lost their WR3 and WR4 (~170 catches), Caliban is still close to 1k TPE at the start of the season, and they still should throw a ton. Even if they change their game plan drastically and throw significantly less this season, Delacour will still be servicable.
Tier 2: Solid WR1s
Tugg Speedman
Jake Fencik
Troy Abed
Zach Crossley
Luke Quick
Saleem Spence
Similar to the tier 3 in RBs, most of these WRs have some kind of question mark around them. Speedman and Spence both have lower TPE rookie QBs. Fencik is the top TPE WR in Philly, but his personal TPE is lower relative to most WR1s across the ISFL, that said the QB and offense should still be pretty good. Abed and Quick are both the top TPE WR on team's which have good QBs and good offenses, the big question around them being the rest of the weapons on their individual teams (BAL has 5 other 1k TPE offensive weapons and BER has Goat Tank). Crossley when paired with McKyle (SJS QB) probably have the lowest WR + QB TPE of any WR in the top 2 tiers; that said, he has pretty high upside given relatively minimal competition amongst the SJS receiving options and SJS being a pretty high volume passing attack.
Tier 3: The Nitty Gritty
Sam the Onion Man
Cole Maxwell
Mike Hunt
Darren Pama
Luca Salamanca
Jaycee Higgins
Quinton Crash
Cliff Burton
Mark Walker
Sam the Onion Man, Cole Maxwell, Luca Salamanca, Jaycee Higgins, and Cliff Burton are all WR2s on their team but they are tied to good QBs. Mike Hunt, Quinton Crash, and Mark Walker are all WR1s on their team, but there are question marks around the QB, the WRs TPE, or the teams rush to pass ratio.
Quarterbacks
Tier 1: Mattathias Caliban
Mattathias Caliban
In a tier all to his own we have Caliban. Colorado passed on 81% of passes last season and honestly I don't see that changing a ton at least based on their current roster construction. Caliban has had a few seasons of regression but is still near 1k TPE so his build shouldn't be hurting too much and that is still in the top half of the QBs in the league. In terms of Caliban's weapons, William Lim and Tsuyu Asui are no longer on the team, but Colorado did call up (don't go) Jason Waterfalls to be the WR3 and he is almost at 1k TPE in his own right. Delacour hit a little bit of regression, but not too much. Drip Dad is still a solid RB as well.
Tier 2: Those Who Should be Tier 1
Dexter Zaylren
Gimmy Jaroppolo
Jackie Daytona
Ryan Negs
Dexter Zaylren easily put up the best QB play in the ISFL last season, the only knock to what he did was his volume since Berlin ran the ball so much with Goat Tank. Even with a not great rush to pass ratio for the team's plays Zaylren was a top 4 QB for fantasy. Any kind of increase in passing volume is going to do wonders for him in fantasy. Jaroppolo just has a ton of weapons in Baltimore to choose from, should make it tough for defenses to cover leading to some good numbers. Daytona regressed a little bit, but the vast majority of the offense is returning for S33 at even higher TPE numbers. Negs and Philly are getting hit by regression some (the only 1k+ TPE weapon is the TE), but still should be a good team that puts points on the board.
Tier 3: The Other Guys
Panda McKyle
Joliet Christ Jr.
Panda McKyle and SJS were pretty pass heavy in S33 and volume is king in fantasy. That said they lost their WR2 and regression destroyed their RB1 so the efficiency and therefore the production could be lower this year. Joliet Christ is leading what should be a pretty good Honolulu offense, but the receiving options as a unit are kind of lacking in TPE. That said Honolulu was a very high volume passing attack in S32 so Christ Jr. has some pretty high upside here.
Tight Ends
Tier 1: Borgo
Borgo San Lorenzo
This one is pretty easy, Borgo was by far the TE1 in S32 and I see no resaon for that to change in S33. No regression for Borgo and minimal regression for his QB Negs, but the other receiving options took a hit meaning Borgo could see higher volume this season.
Tier 2: The Pack
Mario Messi
Buffalo Hunter
Sal Ami
Each of these guys has their own individual questions around their potential S33 production, but they still should be better than the other 75% of tight ends in the league. Messi hit a little bit of regression and his QB retired but he is still among the leaders in TPE among TEs. Buffalo Hunter is a pretty good receiving option in YKW, but YKW as a whole didn't have a great offense last season and I don't think very much will change this season, but Hunter should get decent volume. Sal Ami has some high upside being attached to the 2nd highest passing volume in the ISFL and a pretty good QB in Christ Jr. That said, these things applied to him last season, but he only finished as the TE8 in the league.
Tier 3: The Best of the Rest (Maybe)
Adam Spencer
Gronku Muerto
Deshawn Penne
Adam Spencer is among 3 TEs in NOLA, but he was pretty good last season and still the highest TPE of the 3 TEs there. Muerto and Berlin should see more passing volume this season, they do still have some other pretty good receiving options so Muerto isn't going to light the world on fire. Yes, I am shameless and ranked myself, but it wasn't without reason. Deshawn Penne could see some snaps at WR since SJS only has 2 on the roster. This is mostly just an upside pick based on potential volume as most other TEs have plenty of other competition amongst their receiving cores compared to Penne in SJS.
Kickers
Tier 1: I'm Tired and Can't Think of a Good Tier Name For These Kickers
Ikick Ballz
Jean-Jacques Leroy
Freddy Bly
Ballz is my K1 for sure mainly because of the potential FGA volume. Last season Philly kicked the 2nd most field goals and I think as a team they might take a little bit of a dip on offense leading to fewer TDs and more FGAs. Leroy and Bly both had fairly disappointing S32s from a fantasy perspecitve but are tied to what I suspect to be pretty good offenses.
Tier 2: Still No Tier Name For These Kickers
Izuku Campbell
Cade York
Blago Kokot
Campbell is on what should be a very good offense. York and Kokot are both very good kickers that should see a decent number of FGAs.
Defense
Tier 1: The 2000 Ravens
Philadelphia Liberty
Arizona Outlaws
This season I'm basically just looking for sacks and picks, the stats that should be the most predictable that give fantasy points. LBs get sacks, CBs get picks so I'm looking at LB/CB TPE to pick my fantasy defenses. Philly and Arizona both have very good players at those 2 positions and they were the top fantasy defenses of S32.
Tier 2: The 2006 Ravens
Honolulu Hahalua
Berlin Fire Salamanders
Sarasota Sailfish
Colorado Yeti
Baltimore Hawks
All of these teams have decent to good sets of LBs and CBs. Take your pick between these teams really. If you have a friend on one of these teams or are on one of these teams, go with them. Defenses can be kind of random for fantasy scoring, so best of luck.
Offensive Line
Tier 1: David Bakhtiari
Stumpy Jones
Jaja Ding Dong
Adam Mellott
Alexander Franklin
I have to admit I got kind of lazy here and kind of just listed off Offensive Tackles in order of their TPE. All of them do happen to be the top TPE OL on their team and OTs get more pancakes than OGs and Cs so I skipped the top TPE OLs that were OGs and Cs. Of the top 3 OLs in terms of fantasy points last season, 2 retired and the other hit some pretty heavy regression. As always with OLs in fantasy, check after week 1 to make sure the guy you drafted is being played at OT instead of OG or C. If they are OG or C, drop them for an OT off waivers.
Tier 2: Tyron Smith
Icebox Riposte
Beniri T'chawama
Emperor de Pengu
Marc Hamel
The next 4 highest TPE OLs are listed above. A few of them are have another lineman on the team with more TPE, but that other lineman is at OG or C and not OT. Like I said in the last tier, make sure these guys are lining up at tackle after week 1.
Whew, we are finally done. Apologies for the drop off in writing in the last couple of positions, I've been writing this non stop for a couple of hours now so I'm kind of over it. Anyways, if you've read this far, you're the man (or woman) and I hope you are blessed with the best possible luck in S33 with your picks and your team.
RE: S33 ISFL Fantasy Rankings - LordEscanor - 01-04-2022
No Escanor Sama, huh? Belee dat
RE: S33 ISFL Fantasy Rankings - Pvtpenne - 01-04-2022
(01-04-2022, 05:41 AM)LordEscanor Wrote: No Escanor Sama, huh? Belee dat
Probably next season @LordEscanor
RE: S33 ISFL Fantasy Rankings - BOOM™ - 01-05-2022
Thanks for the mention, but I think I've been relegated to waterboy for this season.