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+---- Thread: *Time value of TPE (/showthread.php?tid=37491)
*Time value of TPE - Troen - 02-06-2022
Not all TPE is of equal value. A single TPE at low totals can increase a stat, while near the cap you need 15 or 25 for those final points. And of course, once you're over the maximum for your player's archetype then all you're doing is ameliorating future regression impact. I think most players understand that kind of TPE value well enough and so I won't discuss it more deeply here.
Instead, I'm going to focus on a form of the time value of TPE. Economic theory enthusiasts might be familiar with the Time value of money which, to summarize, holds that money now is more useful than money in the future. TPE is very similar in the sense that having it now lets you apply it to your player now and see in-game results next week. TPE earned in your second season is less useful than TPE earned in your first season since it can't impact your first season's performance. So, for evaluating the value of TPE, I think the most objective measurement is "TPE seasons in effect" or TPESE - the number of seasons a given TPE is available to your player taking into effect that a single TPE is worth less than 1 in your regression seasons.
(As a side note: TPE is very different than money in that future money is worth an unknown amount in the present whereas TPE has a fixed and known in advance reduction rate. When looking at the time value of money, your future valuations have to consider different inflation environments which will lead to different conclusions. TPE's main variables of future consideration are if you're over the cap or not and in what season of your player's career you will be retiring. A potentially important note is that high-earning players spending their first season of ISFL eligibility in the DSFL will be wasting much of the TPE earned that year since they'll be over the DSFL cap, but once they're called up to the ISFL then it will immediately be of value again. I ignore that potential loss of value in my calculations)
To provide some examples of TPESE calculations:
* If you create a new player with 50 TPE, play 1 season without earning any more TPE, and then retire, your initial TPE were worth 50 TPESE.
* If you create a new player with 50 TPE, play 2 season without earning any more TPE, and then retire, your initial TPE were worth 100 TPESE.
* If you create a new player with 50 TPE, play 1 season without earning any more TPE, gain 50 TPE in the offseason, play one more season, and then retire, your initial TPE were worth 100 TPESE while the offseason TPE were worth 50 TPESE.
* If you earn 50 TPE in the offseason of your last lear prior to regression, go through a 20% regression, play one more season, and then retire, then those TPE were worth 90 TPESE (1*50 for the first season + 0.8*50 for the second season)
As an additional simplification when thinking about TPESE in general, I'm going to assume that TPE earned in a given year average out to 0.5 TPESE. If you want to look at a specific player you could calculate actual percentage of the season in effect for each TPE (or maybe change from "season in effect" to "weeks in effect" if you really want), but when it comes to the average case I'm going to be lazy and assume TPE earning is basically average across each season. I'm also going to ignore the case of trade deadline recreates (despite being one myself) and not create a table for TPE earned before a player's first DSFL season. I additionally am not going to differentiate DSFL season from ISFL seasons or consier league caps at this time. The resulting calculated values can be seen in the table below. The value in the first column on the left is the year the TPE is earned while the various columns show the TPESE value for the TPE earned in that year for the different possible number of seasons your player players before retirement. Note that I am counting all season, not just ISFL seasons - so for example, an S30 player's first year of earning would be S29. If that player retired after S40, that would be their 12th year for my table but their 11th year for the regression rules.
![[Image: tCSyshY.png]](https://i.imgur.com/tCSyshY.png)
I doubt this table will be particularly surprising to anyone who how thought about regression much, but I still think it's a useful way to help remember that earning the most TPE possible as soon as possible is going to help your player's career the most. TPE earned earlier on are in effect longer than those earned later and additionally are more impactful in terms of stat per TPE (though that element is ignored in the table). And of course getting into max earning early in your player's career is a good way to build habits that will help you keep it up for the rest of it. I think that is an aspect that good GMs should care about a lot to encourage in their newer draftees - a 10 year vet forgetting to do a PT is going to have much less of an impact on their player's results than a rookie forgetting. I think this also is a strong signal to new players that trying to maximize cash earning earlier in their careers to be able to afford max level equipment and the most costly weekly training is highly important - max equipment first year is a huge source of TPESE for longer careers, even if it does take a lot of writing or photoshopping to get there. I think it also shows how the rookie tasks are a great tool for newly created accounts to participate in - not only does it help give more money to players to get started, it helps build the pattern of interacting with the league that leads to the habits of updating needed to perform well.
I hope that the TPESE system has provided you a concrete way to think about the time value of TPE. I expect to be spamming more media to afford equipment trying to provide more insights into the league when I have them, so let me know if there's anything you'd like to have me try and analyze.
RE: Time value of TPE - mithrandir - 02-06-2022
Hi Troen. We have never talked on Discord before, but I just wanted to tell you that I always enjoy reading your media. This piece is no exception.
RE: Time value of TPE - zaynzk - 02-06-2022
my boy wicked smart
RE: Time value of TPE - Troen - 02-07-2022
(02-06-2022, 09:20 PM)mithrandir Wrote: Hi Troen. We have never talked on Discord before, but I just wanted to tell you that I always enjoy reading your media. This piece is no exception.
Thanks! I like trying to exploit understand systems.
(02-06-2022, 09:36 PM)zaynzk Wrote: my boy wicked smart
And here I am, not even from Boston
RE: Time value of TPE - Mooty99 - 02-07-2022
Always great to see you back Troen with yet again more killer media