*Another S37 Mock Draft! - Printable Version +- International Simulation Football League (https://forums.sim-football.com) +-- Forum: Community (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=5) +--- Forum: Media (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=37) +---- Forum: Graded Articles (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=38) +---- Thread: *Another S37 Mock Draft! (/showthread.php?tid=40773)

*Another S37 Mock Draft! - caravaggio - 08-12-2022 Introduction Howdy all, I’m a new player, trying to dive into mock drafts for my first season. The beauty and horror of doing this before I’m even drafted in the DSFL is that I’m still learning who everyone is, what these teams are looking to balance against, and even some of the big sim engine mechanics. That’s to say that I don’t know what I’m doing, and this season I’m going to comment on the shoulders of giants. Stupid question first, do draftees enjoy or hate all these mock draft name links pinging them all week leading up to the draft? I guess I’ll find out next season (hopefully). I’ve read the existing S37 draft media and I’m super impressed by the depth and explanation, and it’s heavily influenced some of my decisions. Big shout out to @DREAMSLOTH, @br0_0ker, and @RockbotRockbo on their amazing analyses so far (I’m sure one or two more will pop up while I write this media). If it looks like I stole some of your insights in my picks, well, I probably did, but not intentionally! But I do want to contribute some new material and data to the league, so here I go. Whims of the Masses The first place I looked when trying to get a snapshot of the draft scene is last week’s point task for first round picks. I was curious how picks fell among the ISFL userbase. I also did this selfishly to get a meta ballot together and try and secure somewhere near the mean TPE score when the draft is revealed. Below is a table summarizing how often each player was selected and what pick. A few interesting (but not shocking) observations before I dig further: Looking at the point task thread, there were 180 selections in the summary table, which is sure to have an absolutely massive spectrum of research and effort, from the guy researching each team need and player affinity, to the guy that picks in order of the drop down menu. Overall, there is a general agreement on early picks, and these are highly correlated to TPE total, which I believe is how the drop down menu was ordered on the form. So this dataset is grossly skewed toward people submitting quick picks and copycat ballots. Depending on what I learn this draft, I may start grading and weighting user success, and try to adjust for very unforeseen circumstances like an unusually high number of trades. After applying a heat map to the selections, some very interesting trends and anomalies emerge. What other takeaways are there? High Stick King was the most selected player, 179 out of 180 submissions. He’s also the betting favorite for number 1 pick of the draft. Unless a team has a very specific position need, he seems like an obvious number 1 pick. Agreement on selection starts to break down after the first few picks, there’s some signs of dissention in pick number 4, and then all hell breaks loose in pick number 5. This looks like it will be the most exciting pick of the draft, and if it’s a quarterback, this decision could cause upheaval and drive multiple trades in the latter half of the first round. Nunccoepi is an anomaly in the readings. He’s the most selected player for the 5th pick of the draft, but if he doesn’t go there, he looks to fall to the end of the first round or into the second round. This is probably due to the crazy depth at quarterback in this class. R0tzbua seems very high given his TPE and special teams role. This is likely due to his activity and bank, but I am very interested to see where he falls. Pick 13 is the most chaotic of the first round, with no one being on more than 17 submissions, and 10 different players selected on 10+ submissions. This feels like a pick where the team is going to sweep up the best available player. Gucci has a seems low given his TPE. This is likely due to his bank and the huge quarterback class The safety position confuses me. Gadget is very high up with a low TPE total and bank, while RyanM1414 was almost completely ignored with very similar TPE, bank, and activity. Now that those new insights are added to the mix, lets stir this pot and get some mock draft picks to look at! Pick 1.01 Berlin Fire Salamanders Team Needs for the Salamanders: WR, S, K/P Mock Pick: WR Matthew Mara - @High Stick King of the Dallas Birddogs Without knowing anything about football, it seems like the Salamanders could really use a Kicker, and that someone like Known Acquaintance would be a great fit for the team. Assumption here is that kickers won’t go quite this high, and you have community fan favorite, Matthew Mara, sitting at the top spot, with his reasonable bank, awesome TPE, and incredibly promising future. How could I pick anyone else in this position? The Salamanders pick later in the first round, and Known Acquaintance may still be available then, but there’s no way Mara would still be around. This seems like a safe pick. Pick 1.02  New York Silverbacks Team Needs for the Silverbacks: DE, DT, CB Mock Pick: CB Jason Oexius - @Moldycheez4 of the Bondi Beach Buccaneers After perusing the New York Roster, the Silverbacks look like they have most of the pieces necessary to grow their team into success, but also have a few weak spots that need to be shored up, especially on the defensive side. I do not think that they will use their pick on a wide receiver nor a linebacker, and that means the choice for them would be Jason Oexius, a great high earner in a position of need. The only thing that jumps out at me is the low bank compared to his other comrades at the top of the draft charts. Is it a risk to go this high? Will it work out? I think it is, and the Silverbacks should jump in and select him, it will benefit their team in the long run. They have several high picks in this draft, and I think they’ll prioritize at least 2 defensive players and maybe one offensive player to balance the class out. Pick 1.03 Colorado Yeti Team Needs for the Yeti: WR, DE, S, LB Mock Pick: LB Charlie Thorsen - @Amidships of the Tijuana Luchadores Colorado is in a great draft position this season, with 2 picks in the top 8. And if the draft unfolds as I have it laid out, they’ll have to make a tough choice on a LB or WR for their pick. Their needs seem to be on the defensive side of things, and that will tip their hands slightly in that direction. I think that the depth of wide receivers is much better than Linebackers this season, and as a result, the Yeti pull the trigger on Charlie, the best linebacker in this draft class, with a healthy bank and amazing potential. At the end of the day, there are multiple great players that will be available to take here, and they can’t really go wrong to grab someone that will improve their team. Pick 1.04 Austin Copperheads Team Needs for the Copperheads: TE, OL, WR Mock Pick: WR Rocky Moreaux - @qWest of the Dallas Birddogs As a novice to the league, I could not really figure out what positions were needed for this team outside of Tight End. When I realized there wasn’t a reasonable number 4 TE pick here, I had to dig deep into other author’s analyses. After much reading and thinking, I settled on WR and OL as their biggest needs outside TE. That leaves them with 2 real choices in picks, either Rocky Moreaux or Dusty Wilson. This was a very hard mock pick for me, but ultimately I went with Rocky based on the overwhelming opinion that he would be a top 4 pick. I think Dusty would thrive here as well, but that’s just how the cookie crumbles. Pick 1.05 Baltimore Hawks Team Needs for the Hawks: QB, TE, LB Mock Pick: QB Preston Beatz - @DarknessRising of the Minnesota Grey Ducks This is the pick of the draft that everyone cares about. Usually number 5 isn’t as important, but you’ve got a team that desperately needs to replace Gimmy Jaroppolo at quarterback, and you’ve got a huge pool of top end quarterbacks in the pool, combined with a bunch of teams that don’t really seem to need anything at the position. What should Baltimore do here? Well, they should absolutely trade down and let one of these other teams fill their roster and know they can’t make a bad decision. That said, my mock draft is a no trade mock draft and I have to choose the QB of Baltimore’s future. So who will it be? Of the 4 super high end quarterbacks, I’m going to go with Preston Beatz, because he was a very late position change into a very crowded QB class, and I’ve got to think it was because he knew he was taken early. From a whopping 2 comments I’ve read about his prior connection with Baltimore, the pick is cast, and the Hawks have their Quarterback for the future. Pick 1.06 New Orleans Second Line Team Needs: DE, LB, CB Mock Pick: LB Jordan Hartline - @RDBSouthPaw of the Bondi Beach Buccaneers Now things start to get really hard for me. I was following the dark green boxes from my graph into the forest, and the league starts disagreeing with itself on what’s best for each team. I guess I should start looking at each team’s big needs and try to attach a pick to those positions, and barring that take an awesome quarterback prospect. New Orleans appears to be in big need of defense (a common need for a draft that has a lot of awesome offensive talent). I selected Jordan here because he seems like the biggest fit into the Second Line needs, but for the next few picks I wouldn’t be shocked if there’s a trade and quarterback selection here to start scooping up these rich guys with the impressive TPE totals. Pick 1.07 New York Silverbacks Team Needs for the Silverbacks: DE, DT, CB Mock Pick: DE Bay Webb - @TheHammer43 of the Dallas Birddogs Back with their second pick in the draft, the New York Silverbacks still have large defensive holes they need to fill. They could take a lineman in Dusty Wilson, they can select one of the multiple awesome quarterbacks available, or they can buckle down and grab a defensive player that fills their needs. Luckily, Bay Webb is still available (at least in this mock draft), and is scooped up without a second thought. I feel like the Silverbacks get a solid draft grade on this pick because there will be multiple “best value” type picks here, and we’ll see how they go. Pick 1.08 Colorado Yeti Team Needs for the Yeti: WR, DE, S, LB Mock Pick: WR Dip Dhillon - @Dip of the Bondi Beach Buccaneers Back to the Yeti, who have some big holes to fill. They got their Linebacker in the first pick, and now they probably need a Wide Receiver the most on their list. Dip Dhilon is right there for the taking, and should make for an easy selection. Other considerations include Dusty Wilson at OL, a quarterback, or even Gadget at safety. Lots of options to fill out the team for the Colorado Yeti here. Pick 1.09 Yellowknife Wraiths Team Needs for the Wraiths: WR, QB, S Mock Pick: QB Nova Montagne - @OrbitingDeath of the London Royals The Wraiths are another team that could really use some quarterback reinforcement, and this is their dream draft, where they’ll probably be content to trade down and take one of the 4 to 6 amazing quarterback prospects. I’ve selected Nova in this position due to his sizeable bank and high likelihood of success. If Yellowknife is smart they’ll consider trading down here and getting some picks in addition to a great quarterback. Pick 1.10 Berlin Fire Salamanders Team Needs for the Salamanders: WR, S, K/P Mock Pick: KP Known Acquaintance – @r0tzbua of the Kansas City Coyotes The team with the number one pick comes back to see what’s left of this deep class and gets another piece they need for success. Known Salamander seems like an obvious pick here given the need and how high up he is in the draft class. Other considerations include a quarterback, offensive lineman, and even a safety to shore up the team. At the end of the day it comes down to who will fit best with the team culture.   Pick 1.11 Honolulu Hahalua Team Needs for the Hahalua: QB, OL, DT, KP Mock Pick: OL Dusty Wilson  - @dustywilson22 of the Kansas City Coyotes Honolulu has many options here, and their team looks healthy and successful. They can take any real pick here as their “Team Needs” are much reduced from what most other teams need. A quarterback from this great class? A dominating offensive lineman? Almost any position out there that will help support the team of the future? Most of the league would kill to be in the Hahalua’s position, and it will be interesting where they think they need to start building to keep their team dominant for seasons to come.   Pick 1.12 Chicago Butchers Team Needs for the Butchers: QB, OL, DE Mock Pick: QB Delores Bickerman - @Kyamprac of the Tijuana Luchadores So many premier quarterbacks this season, and all the teams looking for that perfect fit will just float on in to their match. This may happen for Chicago, which doesn’t have a great slot in the first round, but with their needs and the pool available, should suit them just fine. In this scenario they’ll have their choice of either Delores or Adrian St. Christmas, and I’m sure they’ll find a fit for their team that will carry them into the future.   Pick 1.13 Sarasota Sailfish Team Needs for the Sailfish: RB, TE, LB Mock Pick: RB Michael Touchback - @TacocaT of the Minnesota Grey Ducks We are in the realm of solid teams with few to no holes in their rosters, and at this point my understanding of team needs revolves around who is old and needs to be replaced in upcoming seasons. Given the roster the Sailfish are playing with, Running Back seems the most likely position to push for here, and Michael Touchback sits alone among RBs in this draft. I think he’ll find a home here, and help Sarasota with setup their next big run in the future.   Pick 1.14 Honolulu Hahalua Team Needs for the Hahalua: QB, OL, DT, KP Mock Pick: Adrian St. Christmas - @nunccoepi of the Portland Pythons Honolulu is back with the final pick of the first round. As we said earlier, there are multiple places they can go to improve their team, and after selecting a lineman with pick number 11, they opt to take the last high earning quarterback of the draft class in St. Christmas. This is a huge deal for a player picked 14th in the draft, and just a byproduct of the class composition and team luck. Afterward This concludes the first round of the S37 ISFL draft. As someone the really put some thought into it, I can’t wait to watch the stream and have my picks destroyed repeatedly, and watch trades further muddle who goes where. Ultimately it will help me in understanding the league a little better, and that’s the fun part. RE: Another S37 Mock Draft! - Swanty - 08-12-2022 I love this approach! Great read, thanks for putting it together! RE: Another S37 Mock Draft! - TheHammer43 - 08-12-2022 I know my TPE on my roster page is 187 butttttt I'm capped right now  Boost that draft stock boys!