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*Draft Result Evaluation - Troen - 08-14-2022
Looking at the S37 draft class coming into the draft, it seemed really hard to predict the destinations of players based on most traditional ways I've seen. The class had 6 QBs, all in the top 13 TPE earners (as of the 7/30 update). The 28th-highest TPE earner is only at 140, so on paper the draft looks pretty shallow and with an atypical positional distribution. However, the discussion during the draft video made it clear that a lot of the on-paper attributes like position and TPE sounded like very much a lesser consideration to player attitude and conversations along with willingness to position switch. So, I'm going to present my opinions on how each team did based on the comments about ability to position switch rather than the position the player had when drafted.
Arizona Outlaws
Concerns entering the draft:
Arizona looked to have a fairly complete roster entering the offseason. Their biggest hole/future need (LB) look to already be covered in DSFL callup options. I'm sure they wouldn't hate better earning DL players (and more sim luck), but this roster looks to be in a position where they can focus on luxury picks rather than needs.
Picks:
* R2P11/25OA - RB Danny Nedelko - grabbing the GM here and currently in a position to set up for replacing the huge offensive weapon of Cue Jr. With Riggins IA and no DSFL RB, Crunk picks a solid position option for the team.
* R3P11/39OA - WR Mickey Lauvin - at 71 TPE and reportedly IA at the time of draft, Lauvin looks definitely more like a flyer than a cornerstone. Still, flyers can work out and they do have two older WRs so the position fit seems decent.
Austin Copperheads
Concerns entering the draft:
Everyone knows that tight end isn't a real position and so Austin not having one is perfectly fine. More seriously, I assume the strategy group (which I am not a part of) have found some WR/RB combination to be sufficient. Outside of that obvious positional hole of having actually zero TEs, I think Austin is doing a decent job at doing a youth restructure. S37 looks to have (ironically?) Tight End Eighty-Two's corpse at QB followed by S38 having Queen Elizabeth take the reins (and reign) over. With a plan for QB, the only real gaps to me look like a future need for DT replacements and maybe a way to help keeping the newer draft classes' earning rates up.
Picks:
* R1P4/4OA - QB Delores Bickerman - the draft stream suggested that a position switch is in the cards. In this update post I see a switch to WR, so I'm guessing that's positioning to replace the S27 WR Radetzky in the future. As a followup to S36 WR Beeblebrox, this could give Austin a really strong 1-2 WR tandem for some time.
* R2P4/18OA - OL Brandon Mason - with 2 DSFL OL already, this looks like an odd pick on paper to me. UC on the draft stream stated that Mason is earning well and if that can be sustained that'll be great, but with an IA S34 and an active S36 OL in DSFL already, I wonder if OL was the correct priority here or not.
* R3P4/32OA - K/P Cade York Jr. Jr. - sounds like this is potentially a flyer pick, but for a kicker position that Austin would need to address in the next couple years anyway. So, with little to lose, a lot to gain, and a foot in the door, this seems like a very reasonable selection.
Baltimore Hawks
Concerns entering the draft:
Baltimore looks to me like a team trying to move past the power S28/29 core that got them to the Ultimus in S35 but wasn't up to the challenge this year as regression starts hitting harder and harder. They still have some huge peaks going into S37 (5 players over 1k TPE according to the tracker after picking up the Czargyros duo), but they're running lean with minimal depth and I think making the transition to the next generation of players might be a little rough.
Picks:
* R1P5/5OA - QB Preston Beatz - with current S29 QB Jaroppolo Jr. starting to hit regression harder after peaking at 1118 TPE, Beatz might actually be the future QB? Beatz played most of S36 in the DSFL as a kicker, so really anything is possible. Still, Beatz is the only QB on Baltimore's DSFL roster right now. That's not a direct "yes this is our QB of the future" statement in terms of actually indicating their plans for the position, but it's certainly a possibility. They need a replacement at some point and if Beatz keeps it up then this seems like a great choice for the pick.
* R3P5/33OA - CB Wae Traynes - apparently a PBE player who hasn't quite been a max earning in the ISFL, this is a reasonable pick as an aspiration to replace their S28 CB Mahi'ai. If Traynes does keep up earning at a decent rate, this will look like a great pick in a few year. And if instead Traynes never earns another TPE in the league again, mid third round in this draft is a good spot to take a chance.
* R3P6/34OA - DE D'Sqarius Green V - at 177 TPE at the time of draft, and from a team with little DL depth this seems like a reasonable pick even if Green is IA at this point. Baltimore also addressed the DL through FA by signing S31 DE Czargyros which much more directly helps the position, but an attempt at a younger player as well makes sense given the ages involved.
* R4P5/47OA - K/P Jackson Cannon - with their rostered kicker not having claimed any TPE in 2022, this looks like a low-cost gamble to try and get a kicker. Probably won't manage to get the player back to active status, but the cost is very minimal and the upside is pretty decent, so I like the pick.
Berlin Fire Salamanders
Concerns entering the draft:
Berlin's looking like a young team with some good pieces to contend in S38, but I think they're going to be a non-playoff team again in S37 given zero players over 1k TPE entering the season (they do have the corpse of retired S29 DE HotSalads, but that's not something you can build around). So, I saw their top draft concern as figuring out their front 7 (or 6 if they play base nickel) given the retiring HotSalads, the S27 DE Brando hitting regression hard, and the loss of S24 LB Schell. Potentially getting another receiver for a regressing S28 WR Abed might be nice too, but the defense seems like it has to be the priority.
Picks:
* R1P1/1OA - LB Charlie Thorsen - hitting that position need directly on the position side and also getting an experienced and well-liked person side makes this a great pick. I don't have much to add over the draft commentary other than to thank Amid for helping me plan for my CB build. Good luck in Baltimore!
* R1P10/10OA - LB Jordan Hartline - doubling down on the LB front gives a 4th LB that gives a lot of defensive flexibility. If I read things correctly, Hartline was also the second highest TPE for the S37 class, so this is definitely a good needs to paper strength pick. The player also is known in SHL and so there's a good track record to figure on a good earning future as well.
* R2P1/15OA - K/P Known Acquaintance - Berlin did need a kicker, but it sounds like this was more a user pick than a player pick. Seems pretty reasonable given that the draft was shallow and the user connection.
* R3P1/29OA - DE Thwomp - Berlin will need DEs in the future and the discussion in the draft stream had confidence that the user will avoid past issues. For a third round pick in this draft, the risk is low and the upside is absolutely high if they can pull in a committed and active user, so seems like another reasonable selection.
* R3P8/36OA - RB Aaron Ford - the team's second RB is inactive, the first is apparently becoming less active, and the team heard rumors that the user is going to be active in the league doing Dotts. So, seems like a good flyer option given who else was available.
* R4P1/43OA - CB Barcarri Rambo - the user's known as a player in other leagues, so a reasonable "fingers crossed" pick even if, at 63 TPE, Rambo hasn't done too much in the ISFL yet.
Chicago Butchers
Concerns entering the draft:
Coming off of a league-high 13-3 record and with what looks to me like a pretty solid S30-S32 core, I see Chicago's needs primarily along figuring out future replacements to keep up competitiveness. S27 RB Hayes, S28 LB Hall and CB Soulja, and S29 QB Oles Jr. and WR LOrdreSombre are all hitting regression, and QB in particular isn't a great "draft and make a starter" position. So, I would imagine a QB future as the top option and then new blood for the future at the other positions.
Picks:
* R2P3/17OA - DE Stryker Brown - the Butchers got this and the next pick after trading away their first rounder (12th OA). The draft commentary said that they had enough people they wanted to get that they thought they'd be able to get two, and it apparently worked out. Brown didn't seem like a huge position need, but they said that they valued getting a new user who's known from PBE. Given the higher need at QB, I could see an argument to take one here, but with only Austin (who has a presumptive QB replacement in the DSFL already) before that pick, taking someone that Austin might have makes sense.
* R2P5/19OA - QB Brock Landers Jr. - hits the clear positional need and arguably was too risky, but with so many high-earning QBs the team managed. The user also had a previous high TPE player so that helps build confidence for a position so important to the team. Seems like a great value pick, especially vs. taking the same player 12th and not making the trade.
* R2P13/27OA - RB Blibby Shpoopy - user is known to the Chicago GM and it sounds like the low TPE is due to lack of time rather than inactivity. RB is a position they want to shore up for the future. So, seems like a solid selection that could end up as an amazing one of the user does free up enough time to earn high.
Colorado Yeti
Concerns entering the draft:
Now obviously, I am not the one building the Yeti roster and so it not making sense to me might follow logically. I'm just going to assume they have a plan or reason or something for having 4 RBs and 4 WRs but then drafting 2 more and it makes sense.
That aside, their budget sheet includes S25 CB Ruschmann, S27 RB Dad, and S28 players at WR, OL, and DE so going into the draft I'd figure they'd be inclined to address those positions more than others.
Picks:
* R1P3/3OA - QB Grayson Yates - draft conversation suggested the plan is for Arctic to move to defense, though that's not reflected in the latest update so the plan might be to remain at QB in the DSFL for S37). The commentary didn't get into much depth beyond "good conversation, player position flexible" so I don't know if I have enough information to determine if this is a great pick vs. the other options, but it at least seems like a solid one.
* R1P8/8OA - S Inspector Gadget - a low TPE pick, but apparently missed time in the season due to a medical issue but had a high rate while around. User participated a ton in the LR too, so sounds like this should be a great pick so long as that keeps up. The team does only have one safety on the roster, so I could see Gadget as a psuedo-replacement for Ruschmann who I think hits mandatory retirement next year.
* R1P12/12OA - WR Rocky Moreaux - the result of a trade, the Yeti GM said they were looking for a blue chip prospect over 2 decent selections. Seems like a good choice to replace another top earning WR. The user apparently had a number of demands which may have scared off other teams but that apparently worked to Colorado's advantage since the team could meet them. Seems like a great pick for the team so long as whatever the contract conditions are don't cause a problem in the future.
* R3P3/31OA - WR Jadarius Jones - a 50 TPE player is a pretty wild selection, but the user is apparently a coworker of someone else the team drafted and active in the locker room despite the lack of TPE activity. Third round is definitely a time where you can start taking risky picks with high payoff, and this is one. If anything, I could see the team having tried to go one round later since they're the one with the connection, but that might have been a little too risky if they thought they had a great option here.
* R4P3/45OA - S Dalibor Dvorsky - sounds like an inactive user where the team is crossing its fingers which makes sense for picks this late. Not an impressive pick, but the cost is effectively zero so seems perfectly fine.
Honolulu Hahalua
Concerns entering the draft:
After three straight Ultimus appearances and two wins in a row, Honolulu looks to be using a power core of S28 players at QB, WR, DT, and LB. With those all getting deeper into regression and 16 total players from last year's roster (though not all remain on the team) getting a visit from the TPE thief, I think the team's main concern is balancing a transition to the younger players with remaining competitive. I think their roster still looks stacked for S37, but that's going to run out eventually. I think the lack of a specific need does give them the option to take the best users with the knowledge that the player will be useful eventually rather than having to pick for positional need, which is convenient.
Picks:
* R1P11/11OA - QB Nova Montagne - sounds like this was planned at the time of the Great QB Swap that Honolulu was in a couple seasons back. The user was planning to recreate at QB and wanted to be in Honolulu, so it happened. For this kind of pick, I do wonder a little bit about the fairness of it - if a user refuses to sign with any team other than the one they want to go to, it seems like it devalues giving teams with worse records higher picks? But, that's really a conversation for a different media piece. So purely on team needs and user fit, this seems like a great pick.
* R2P2/16OA - LB Monty Ward - the first of two picks gotten in exchange for their first rounder (14th OA), Honolulu picked up an early 3rd rounder in exchange for dropping two spots. Ward at LB will be positionally useful at some point, and the user is apparently pretty good at media, and going with a known commodity seems pretty decent.
* R3P2/30OA - QB Adrian St. Christmas - this is a selection that seem to have dropped due to the user's plans to be a pure free agent and move around a lot. With a plan specifically indicating that you won't be getting a long-term player, it makes sense that it took so long for a high TPE earner. If anything, I'm interested in why Honolulu made the pick - trying to curry favor if needed later? Like the user even if the player never makes a start for the team? Backup plan in case Montagne goes missing in mysterious circumstances? I have no idea, but it'll at least be interesting to see how the player's career pans out. For Honolulu, though, I have to think there's a chance that this ends up as a pick that doesn't help the team long-term. The draft class is shallow enough that it's probably not going to hurt them much, though, and the pick itself was a throw-in on a trade so it's almost like free money! So I don't hate it, though I do wonder if it's the "optimal" player to grab here.
* R4P4/46OA - RB Dobromil Dvorak - an 82 TPE player who had some great DSFL stats, the user's apparently known but didn't earn too much due to circumstances. If the player can get up to 300+ TPE this ends up looking like a great pick for this late while it's hardly wasted even if it doesn't pan out.
New Orleans Second Line
Concerns entering the draft:
NOLA is definitely a mostly younger team with some really solid S34 players and a trio of older players over 1k TPE. They have a few older players (S26 LB Jones in particular) I think they're looking to find replacements for, and a few of their other draft picks haven't been top earners. I'd judge their top needs entering the draft as CB (where they have one good active and two lower earning) and maybe LB (where they have 2 good-earning younger ones but also have 2 under 230 TPE).
Picks:
* R1P6/6OA - CB Jason Oexius - a hit right in the position, a great paper selection. The GMs also got good feedback from (presumably) the user's DSFL GM as a new user with good activity, so seems like a great pick all around.
* R2P6/20OA - CB Adam Rage - doubling down on the position they're looking to reinforce (though the user is apparently willing to position swap), the GM was DSFL teammates and so they were eager despite the lower TPE earning. Seems like a reasonably selection, especially if they can get the user bumping up to max earning.
* R2P14/28OA - S Deckerd Deshaw - another DSFL teammate, the user's apparently been active there despite the lower TPE total. Safety doesn't look like an immediate need, but if the user isn't max earning that might actually line up timelinewise with S31 S Springer hitting regression so long as Deshaw remains active.
* R3P14/42OA - TE Cardorino Tarotino - as a last pick in this third round, the team sounded more to be hoping the user is willing to return than banking on it. 82 TPE at time of draft does show a decent amount of involvement, and getting drafted to a new team definitely has a chance of pulling a user back from inactivity. Low risk pick that will likely be low reward here, but I'm sure the team has its fingers crossed.
* R4P6/48OA - WR Damien Chambers - as the third to last pick of the draft, very low risk and the GMs noted that the user had completed some tasks that weren't claimed. So, if they can get the user to come back, then the player could end up being relevant. And if not, this probably isn't a worse pick than the other options left.
New York Silverbacks
Concerns entering the draft:
The Silverbacks have no DLine players with over 300 TPE, a real grab bag of safeties, and a need for another good active pass catcher to help out S36 McHollywood at WR or TE. With only 2 LBs I could see them try to pick one up of there's a good option available too, but I'm guessing they're using some of those safeties out of position to help for now.
Picks:
* R1P2/2OA - WR Matthew Mara - going directly for the need at pass catching (and reportedly willing to position switch) and a user who is reported to have a great reputation in other sim leagues, this seems like a great pick. As of the 8/13 update, it seems Mara is both sticking with WR for now and going to remain in the DSFL for S37, but I imagine the player will be a big part of things in S38 and beyond.
* R1P7/7OA - DE Bay Webb - sounded like this was a big user pick who also has decent positional match. Webb's also up to 249 TPE in the 8/13 update and that without getting max equipment yet, so looks like an initially lower TPE might turn into keeping up with the class' leaders. Seems like a very reasonable pick.
* R1P14/14OA - RB Michael Touchback - trading away a third rounder to move up 2 spots, the user apparently was a late joiner in the class but has been active. I'm not sure if the trade was worth it vs. trying to get the same player 2 picks later and keeping the early third rounder, but given that it was a shallow class I can see the logic. Still, the pick on its own seems solid and logical enough.
* R3P7/35OA - K/P Paddy MacGuinness - sounds pretty much like a flyer on a user who had a previous player who was fun even if the player's TPE is low. The Silverbacks' current kicker is an IA FA at 166 TPE, so it wouldn't take too much for this to end up as an upgrade on the field. If they get that plus an active user, that'll make this look like a great pick to me.
* R4P2/44OA - WR Orion Jasper - I believe the highest TPE player left in the draft, the user's previous player was inactive at the time of the draft but came back and made it to a role player in the ISFL. If New York can get lightning to hit a second time, that could result in a great receiving corps for the team in the future. And if Jasper remains IA, wasting a pick this late in the draft isn't a huge cost. Low risk, high upside pick.
Orange County Otters
Concerns entering the draft:
Orange County is a somewhat small team, with only 16 players in the ISFL on their budget sheet as of 8/14. However, they have an S36 kicker that seems like they'll need to call up to have a kicker in S37? Maybe the budget sheet is just out of date. Anyway, beyond that the team looks like it should be pretty good on paper, with the third highest average TPE in the ISFL. That didn't quite work out well enough for them last season, though, as they went 7-9 and missed the playoffs. 7 of their losses were by 7 or fewer points, and 4 were by 3 or fewer, though, so maybe they were just unlucky? I didn't follow their games too closely, so I'm not sure. So anyway, on paper I'd say their biggest needs looked like future selections to cover regression, especially for DE, LB, and CB. Unfortunately, with no picks until late in the third round, the team probably won't be picking up many reinforcements in this draft without trading away more future capital.
Picks:
* R3P12/40OA - DE Larry Fisherman - with no GM-provided notes, I'm not sure if the GMs had any specific reasons for this selection other than hoping the shore up the DLine in the future. The user hasn't been back to the site since the end of June, though, so I'm guessing this is a pick that won't help the team out. I can't say it's a waste exactly, but I don't think I'm seeing anything to suggest that it's the best selection of the remaining players.
* R4P7/49OA - RB Tyler Orator - also no notes from the GMs and also a 50 TPE player, but I'll say that Fisherman at least looks better to me on paper since this user has less time on the site, fewer posts, and fewer threads. So there's that! I'm guessing this pick also won't pan out, but with only 2 options left it's not one I can reasonably complain about the team making.
Phillidelphia Liberty
Concerns entering the draft:
Philly is in the (I'm assuming) awkward position of having a QB who's kinda not a max earner (over 300 TPE behind the class leader). I'm going to assume they've made peace with that, but I could see them thinking about trying to find a max earner here instead. Or, maybe they'll just try to purchase a certain journeyman QB's services at the appropriate time? Other than that, I think the LB group is a little weak overall - 3 players over 600 TPE isn't bad, but with 2 of those being from S31/32 I think it's the area I'd want to try and find an active earner at. They also have a GM at CB, so clearly that's an area they're looking to improve at.
Picks:
* R2P7/21OA - CB Tingis Pingis - GM pick. I'm guessing this was originally intended to be a replacement player for S28 CB Miller, but S34 CB Lariat hasn't updated in nearly 2 months, so I'm guessing Pingus might be a starter sooner than they had hoped for.
* R2P8/22OA - LB Gribbuh Fister - reported by the GMs as a good user and at the position I think the team would like most to upgrade at, so seems very reasonabl to make this pick here. Fister's a bit off the max TPE pace, but even consistent earning at only the current pace would make this a really solid selection.
* R4P8/50OA - WR Toby Hays - as the last pick of the draft, I'm guessing there's nothing possible to criticize about this selection. It sounds like it might have been a meme selection due to the player's name more than anything else, but turning a pick into a joke seems decent value. Obviously actually getting an active player instead would be nice, but I don't think that happens with the last pick of the draft too often (outside of S22 anyway).
Sarasota Sailfish
Concerns entering the draft:
Sarasota seems to be finishing up the move from S26 players to S36 players with 2 of the former and 4 of the latter on the team's budget as of 8/14. The obvious areas to target for the draft seem like those and other regressing players (WR, OL, CB as the top ones), but I'd say this is a team that on paper looks ready to fight for the top in the conference again even with no draft picks.
Picks:
* R1P13/13OA - WR Dip Dhillon - reasonably high TPE with high media earning and positional flexibility make this sound like an amazing pick this far into the first round. The player seems to be remaining at WR and not be getting called up for S37 based on the last update I see, but I could see a callup next year at WR to supplant S28 Spence after regression.
* R2P12/26OA - OL Yuumy Hotdogpie - terrifying name and draft render aside, OL seems like a good selection given the team's only players are S28/29. The user hasn't made an update post since July 30th despite having done some point tasks, so I'm not sure exactly that means as far as a timeline for hitting the TPE point at which they player gets called up. Still, the user has a long history in the league and so I assume the team was comfortable with what they were getting into. I'm figuring this is a decent pick with upside if the user picks up the earn/claim rate.
* R3P13/41OA - WR Duke Smith - 50 TPE WR who caught 3 passes in the DSFL isn't much of a starting point to expect great things from, so I'll just say that this pick is upside. I have to wonder why not take the 100 TPE WR Jasper who went 3 picks later though - sure, Smith's user has been back to the site more recently, but I feel like there has to be higher upside in trying to get another user who has been decently involved in the league before over a new one who hadn't been on the site in 2 weeks. Maybe they had some discord contact that was good? I don't know. Still, not a pick I can hate even if the player never returns.
San Jose Sabercats
Concerns entering the draft:
San Jose seems to be wrapping up the migration from the S26-29 era and into the S34-36 era while having a few high TPE stars to lean on to be competitive. That worked out fairly well last year as they went 10-6 and second in the conference (despite a negative point differential). This season seems like it probably won't go as well given what looks like a switch to a new S35 QB and the point differential, but I don't know how much of that was luck vs. other factors. For the draft, I'd imagine they'll want to look at finding replacements for regressing players in OL, LB, and CB, plus maybe trying to find a higher earning DL player. With no first round pick, though, I'm guessing the strategy will be more best player available.
Picks:
* R2P10/24OA - WR Luther Vox - WR doesn't seem like a terrible position to pick up given that the team is relying on a 1-year FA in S28 Man. Vox's user apparently also missed some time but has returned, so there's definitely hope that the player ends up higher on the TPE bracket as time goes on. Very reasonable pick.
* P3P10/38OA - WR Cornelius King III - double dipping on the WR position, the GM's alt user is apparently (per the draft stream conversation) more involved in tasks than the player's TPE total would suggest. So, if that claim bears out then this seems like the team made a great pick that will help out their receiving future.
Yellowknife Wraiths
Concerns entering the draft:
The top two needs I see entering the draft are a future replacement for S26 DE Taylor, upgrades at LB and CB over the current lower TPE options, and maybe OL to help with some cap pressure. Otherwise, this team seems pretty complete and set to contend with their real problem being that Chicago and Sarasota are too. Yellowknife was just as good defensively as those two in S36 but was behind on the point scoring side. With 4 S35 players on offense, I'm sure the team is hoping that their TPE earning will kick the scoring up a gear this year.
Picks:
* R1P9/9OA - OL Dusty Wilson - this player was the top TPE OL in the draft, so makes a lot of sense from a cap perspective. The GM notes didn't mention it, but the user has been writing a lot of media about the player's team activities and has an impressive bank for a newly created player, so this seems like a great pick even if the TPE at time of draft was behind the class leaders.
* R2P9/23OA - S Ryan Murray - safety didn't seem an immediate need, but one way to avoid having immediate needs is to make picks in advance. So, I can't fault the pick on position fit, and the other options were definitely drying up. Seems pretty reasonable, though the user not posting in nearly 3 weeks might be a mild concern.
* R3P9/37OA - CB Vader Page - hasn't been back to the site since July 17th, so definitely a lower chance of a steal here. Finding a high-earning CB this late in this draft would be amazing, but I have to figure the team knew this is unlikely to pan out.
RE: Draft Result Evaluation - 124715 - 08-14-2022
another high quality article, great read!
RE: *Draft Result Evaluation - dustywilson22 - 08-15-2022
Well Glad to be noticed, but yes I write an article at least 1 every week during the season to recap games and just go through Dusty's life. So If you enjoy stories and want to waste time. My stories are great
