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+---- Thread: *Playoff Simmed Projections (/showthread.php?tid=42163)
*Playoff Simmed Projections - DarknessRising - 11-15-2022
Well hasn't this season been an interesting one to follow?
I would take a safe bet against anyone, that no one will get perfect season predictions from this season, or even be just one off, with the amount of upset and surprise that has been taking place over the course of the 14 weeks so far. Two teams who went for picks and tanking, see one winless, Honolulu, and the other occupying a playoff spot and has been for more than half the season in Baltimore. Whilst other teams who moved all in and given up multiple 1st round picks, see themselves looking on from the outside, bound to have an early pick....except they dont have it no more, looking at you New Orleans and Philadelphia.
For reference, here is how the league did the NSFC season predictions:
![[Image: image.png]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/343466514621399060/1041898591020646490/image.png)
This is 228 users predictions, from that, Baltimore was a strong last place, and only 5 people, 2.2% of entries, had them placed in the playoffs. People saw a strong top two with Sarasota and Yellowknife, followed by a close fight for the final seed spot between Chicago and Philly, whilst Berlin and Colorado kept it competitive for the non-playoff but not last ranks. As it currently sits, the favourites to win the conference are fourth seed, Philly and Chicago are not fighting closely for that 3rd spot, but either completely out or nearly out respectively, whilst Baltimore and Berlin sit in playoff spots, with 1 of them at least making it into the post-season.
With that said, we can see how both NSFC and ASFC are in close contention with just 2 weeks of games left, shown buy how many teams may still have a chance to earn a playoff birth.
Honolulu, Colorado and Philadelphia are completely out, over 2 games behind current playoff spots. Was expected of Honolulu and Colorado may not have been predicited to be last, but down the bottom as well, whilst Philly's trade that you will hear about for seasons to come, is probably going to be held against them in reality when they have only gone backwards in results.
New Orleans and Chicago both sit 2 games out at the moment, and without going into full details and situations, may have the slimiest of chances to get in, requiring both games to be won, and a lot of results to go their way, perhaps even then getting into margins of victory to find a way in. New Orleans is the harder of the two to see happen, since they would need New York and Austin, who are tied at the 3rd seed spot two games ahead, to lose out where New York faces Honolulu in Week 16, a resoundingly expected free W for them. If this free win does transpire, then that one game costs NOLA, without considering them needing to beat New York themselves, as well as San Jose. Chicago on the other hand, face Austin and Philly, and whilst no direct matchup at a glance will cost them, with a lot of divisional games going on, its a tough pill to swallow but they should be planning for a top 8 pick rather than a playoff run.
Besides those 5 teams, everyone is either tied or one game off from playoffs. Arizona sits clear in a clinched first seed, whilst Yellowknife sit only one game ahead of a tied 2nd place, and 2 ahead of 4th place, making it potentially possible they could miss playoffs? Unlikely but I am not doing the math on that. This leaves, San Jose, Austin, New York and Orange County fighting for two spots in the ASFC and Berlin, Baltimore and Sarasota fighting in the NSFC.
So, what is the meat of this article and the projections look like?
For this, I simmed from the week 14 file 25 times and tallied up the results for each matchup, so we can see both expected wins and the rough chance the current strats in place for teams give. We can then use the expected wins of each week to give us a predicted end of season standings and see who might or might not make playoffs through a really foggy crystal ball.
Week 15 Games
Yellowknife @ Philly - Yellowknife wins 14 times, Philly 11 - 56% win rate
Whilst Yellowknife may be top of the conference at the moment, and Philly out of post-season contention, the game seems to be closer than many might expect. Despite their results, Philly is a strong team and at home here, so whilst momentum and season outcome may make you think Yellowknife have a better chance then 56%, its no sure win for them, who are by far teh focus of this match as it will move them in a very superior position for the first seed spot and subseqent first round bye of playoffs.
Arizona @ San Jose - Arizona wins 17 times, San Jose 8 - 68% win rate
First seed verse second seed, and whilst San Jose are hosting the clinched first seed Outlaws, it does not do much for them. Arizona are predicited to have a comfortable chance of extending their wins and lead in the conference, whilst the lost for San Jose could see them in a three way tie for 2 playoff spots and lose their pillow of comfort they currently have to make a playoff run.
Sarasota @ Baltimore - Sarasota win 25 times - 100% win rate
Well, seems like in theory that Baltimore are showing what they are expected to be like. Not a single win for the hawks, with observations showing alot of blowout scores as well. This prediction would see Sarasota then tie the Hawks on 8 wins and potential a face off for the final playoff spot based on week 16 games, where Sar has the slightly easier opponent. If Baltimore do continue their upset form and ignoring what math tells them, a win here would secure them a playoff spot, potentially eliminating Sarasota as well if Berlin goes on to win
Chicago @ Austin - Austin win 16 times, Chicago 9 times - 64% win rate
Chicago's chances are hanging by a thread, and this could be the final cut that drops them into no post-season blues. Austin are in a hotly contended battle to make the playoffs and need to ensure that they dont get tripped up here. 65% win rate at home seems reasonable, and they just need to get the job done considering they have Arizona, the regular season champions, in week 16 away, whilst their rivals for playoffs have much easier matchups.
New York @ New Orleans - New Orleans win 16 times, New York 8 times - 64% win rate
New Orleans want to keep their chances alive, and need a win here to do it. New York have a new secured W in week 16 being home to the currently winless Honolulu, so this is the game for them to focus on in their playoff pursuit par the most unlikely of results. NOLA home and are a great team, hence their projected deceently favours win rate from test sims, but on form, ain't no way you betting the house on this game.
Honolulu @ Orange County - Orange County win 24 times, Honolulu 1 - 96% win rate
Berlin @ Colorado - Berlin win 17 times, Colorado 8 times - 68% win rate
Berlin continue to push for playoffs and with an easier opponent and the easier of their two remaining matchups, gonna want to secure the win to get closer to that. Colorado are looking to only play spoilers here at home and give their fans something to cheer about, but it doesn't seem all too likely based on sims.
Overall - Sarasota v Baltimore probably the most important game to watch, as they could set one team in, if not set the entire NSFC seeded teams if Baltimore get the W and Berlin get their expected win. As for the NSFC, we could see a situation where Austin and San Jose tie on 9 wins in playoff spots, whilst New York and Orange County sit one game behind and have lots of outcomes viable for their playoff seeding. Of note, Honolulu, the winless worst team in the league due to their tanking, do not have the lowest win-rate chance, so good on them that is something to be proud of.
Week 16 Games
Sarasota @ Berlin - Sarasota win 16 times, Berlin 9 times - 64% win rate
Well, a massive matchup for playoff implications and potential seeding. It could all be for naught based on week 15 results, or it could be for home field advantage in a rematch come the wildcard games, or a possible seeding for the fishes and a bye for the salamanders. Lots depends on the week 15 results but it shall be a good match nonetheless with some sort of reason to watch. Sarasota overcome being the away team by a comfortable margin, lending to them actually being a better team on paper by a fair chunk, but who knows what we have install for us.
Yellowknife @ Baltimore - Yellowknife wins 24 times, Baltimore once - 96% win rate
Well, at least this time Baltimore got a win out of 25 sims. Yellowknife seem to cruise into playoffs and a likely first seed with a near guaranteed win by the predictions put forth here. Once more however, no one saw Baltimore getting anywhere close to a sniff of a playoff spot, so clearly math is irrelevant to them. They may need a giant upset here to get into playoffs if they lose to the sailfish in week 15, and their two main rivals for a post-season appearance could help or hinder them, as it may see them need to win regardless or not even be concerned by this games results by the time it rolls around.
Philly @ Chicago - Philly wins 18 times, Chicago 7 time - 72% win rate
Two dejected teams thinking what could have been with this season, Philly take it apparently decently whilst being the away team. Even if they win out its gonna be a bitter taste to them, whilst Chicago not only are unlikely to make playoffs, are showing up as unlikely to get either of the two remaining wins they must get to have a chance. May see some good football from some very depressed players who want to just move into off-season already.
San Jose @New Orleans - New Orleans wins 16 times, San Jose 9 - 64% win rate
Unlike Chicago, New Orleans are projected to win both of their games which is necessary for their chances, however unlikely it is to happen, at least seeing them end their dismal season on a high if it comes true. San Jose on the other hand, dont get much of a let of after facing Arizona and could see themselves crash out of a playoff spot with two hard matchups in their way.
Honolulu @ New York - New York wins 24 times, Honolulu 1 - 96%
Once more, Honolulu show some fight in winning 1 game, and could play a massive last second spoiler to New York (Note: This one win game in the final seconds of OT, after a 56 yard FG with 1 second left in regular time by HON to get it there in the first place). New York would be seeing this as a easy W and insurance to get into the playoffs, and I don't think anyone can blame them for that, but oh god if they screw it up here in week 16 and miss playoffs, prepare to be clowned monkeys.
Austin @ Arizona - Arizona wins 20 times, Austin wins 5 times - 80% win rate
Arizona once more cruises across the line, but the focus is all on Austin. A very tight playoff race and going against the best regular season team whilst on the road to the only team who hasn't lost a home game, strap in Copperheads. I am not sure if that 80% win rate is too high or too low considering all factors. You would strongly assume an Arizona victory, and Austin will need to not rely on this game to see them though, hoping other results from the week or after week 15 games, they don't need to worry about toppling the giants just yet.
Colorado @ Orange County - Orange County win 17 times, Colorado 8 times - 68% win rate
Colorado are out of contention and its a potential spoiler game for the guys and girls and animals in orange. Orange County could be in a decent chance of what could be seen as stealing a playoff spot, with probably the easiest run home of the contending ASFC teams with HON/COL, two eliminated from post-season teams. It would put them to 9 wins, which probably ends up being the minimum needed so is still no guarantee, but a strong chance they get there means the pressure falls to other teams rather then them.
Overall - Lots of banging matches for the NSFC, Sarasota v Berlin could be a all or nothing game for a final playoff spot or to secure themselves whilst the other awaits Baltimore V Yellowknife and hope Baltimore don't cause more chaos this season. As for the ASFC, New York and Orange County see themselves with "easy" matchups, whilst San Jose and Austin face stiff competition, making a very interesting and tale of two tapes ending to the season. Expect to see a tied results for playoff seeding occuring with an unforutnate team missing out.|
What does the Predicted Standings become?
ASFC
Arizona Outlaws - 14-2 - 2 wins predicted
San Jose SaberCats - 9-7 - 0 wins predicted
New York Silverbacks - 9-7 - 1 win predicted
Orange County Otters - 9-7 - 2 wins predicted
Austin Copperheads - 9-7 - 1 win predicted
New Orleans Second line - 8-6 - 2 wins predicted
Honolulu Hahalua - 0-16 - 0 wins predicted
Note: Order of tied teams is not indicitive of who is more likely to make it
Well, it seems that everyone likes the number 9, a four way tie is to be expected. From observations, a 3 or 4 way tie at 9 wins tends to be the occurrence, and will see heartbreak for a team being over .500 wins sent packing. NOLA despite favourites in remaining game, seem to be no chance and I beleive on looking, are actually eliminated already, backed up with them never making playoffs in the 25 sims. Its going to be a 4 team race for 2 spots that is the interest here, any big upsets in their games could see them secure or cost themselves, before Head-2-Head and likely further with Points For/Against to be considered to split these teams apart
NSFC
Yellowknife Wraiths - 11-5 - 2 wins predicted
Berlin Fire Salamanders - 9-7 - 1 win predicted
Sarasota Sailfish - 9-7 - 2 wins predicted
Baltimore Hawks - 8-8 - 0 wins predicted
Chicago Butchers - 6-10 - 0 wins predicted
Philadelphia Liberty - 6-10 - 1 win predicted
Colorado Yeti - 5-11 - 0 wins predicted
It seems the miracle Hawks run is destined to land them outside of playoffs. They are gonna need an upset win to either force a tie or see themselves swap with the Sailfish, they just have to win a game to be in a good spot. Yeti inherit last place as Philly get a last minute win for morale whilst Chicago would need all hell to break lose with SAR/YKW/BAL/BER games, to all go a certain way across both weeks, and getting two apparent upsets, to have a chance. Eyes must go to both Sarasota games, predicted to win against Baltimore and Berlin, they will be the biggest game changers for seeding in my opinion.
That is all, I know looking at playoff equation math would be much more interesting, but I am not prepared to look at that with all these random potential outcomes that will see PF/PA coming into it, and with 2 games of results to affect that its not something I wish to predict. After week 15, we can see how accurate the predictions where, potentially what the new starts give for week 16 game predictions, and then look at playoff math with only 1 round left. Otherwise, enjoy the tnese time, this season as a Hawk as been an asbolute blast as we wage chaos into the league, and the fact that there is still theoirtically 5 teams in each conference that can make playoffs is ludicrious and I am all for it. We are gonna see .500 and teams above that miss out on playoffs it seems, probably due to the bottom teams aka Honolulu, getting less wins than normal and causing the middle teams in each conference to have a few more than normal seasons in the past.
Whatever happens, go the hawks and oh boy its going to be interesting and I cannot wait to know what happens.
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2798 words it showsRE: Playoff Simmed Projections - Pat - 11-15-2022
I'm blaming every single user that ranked Philly higher than 5th in their predictions for the season the Liberty have had. It's obvious the sim gods looked down and saw fatih in the false idols of freedom and America and decided to punish the believers.
RE: Playoff Simmed Projections - Nathan - 11-15-2022
Nice article but have you considered that this is Draft Day Sports?
RE: Playoff Simmed Projections - abh89 - 11-15-2022
(11-15-2022, 11:12 AM)DarknessRising Wrote: Week 15 Games
Sarasota @ Baltimore - Sarasota win 25 times - 100% win rate
![[Image: XOqoUzf.png]](https://i.imgur.com/XOqoUzf.png)
RE: Playoff Simmed Projections - Pat - 11-15-2022
(11-15-2022, 04:17 PM)abh89 Wrote:(11-15-2022, 11:12 AM)DarknessRising Wrote: Week 15 Games
Sarasota @ Baltimore - Sarasota win 25 times - 100% win rate
Have you considered that Darkness is on the sim team and WILL make this happen to prove you wrong??
For legal reasons I must state this is a joke and I am not implying nor accusing the sim team of fixing games.
RE: Playoff Simmed Projections - DarknessRising - 11-15-2022
(11-15-2022, 04:42 PM)Pat Wrote:(11-15-2022, 04:17 PM)abh89 Wrote:(11-15-2022, 11:12 AM)DarknessRising Wrote: Week 15 Games
Sarasota @ Baltimore - Sarasota win 25 times - 100% win rate
Have you considered that Darkness is on the sim team and WILL make this happen to prove you wrong??
For legal reasons I must state this is a joke and I am not implying nor accusing the sim team of fixing games.
For legal reasons i must laugh at this and not look so nervously and the stacks of money on my table besides my Ultimus Ring I already received for this season.
RE: Playoff Simmed Projections - Opera_Phantom - 11-16-2022
Can't wait to crash and burn in the conference championship game.
RE: Playoff Simmed Projections - DREAMSLOTH - 11-16-2022
(11-16-2022, 07:11 AM)Opera_Phantom Wrote: Can't wait to crash and burn in the conference championship game.
Ah yes, because that worked out so well for the rest of us *last* season.
RE: Playoff Simmed Projections - Nathan - 11-16-2022
(11-16-2022, 07:11 AM)Opera_Phantom Wrote: Can't wait to crash and burn in the conference championship game.I thought this meme died?
RE: Playoff Simmed Projections - Opera_Phantom - 11-16-2022
(11-16-2022, 01:50 PM)Nathan Wrote:(11-16-2022, 07:11 AM)Opera_Phantom Wrote: Can't wait to crash and burn in the conference championship game.I thought this meme died?
Ooooooor... Did it just take a small 1 season break?