Is Tua the best QB in his class? - Printable Version +- International Simulation Football League (https://forums.sim-football.com) +-- Forum: Community (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=5) +--- Forum: Media (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=37) +---- Forum: Graded Articles (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=38) +---- Thread: Is Tua the best QB in his class? (/showthread.php?tid=42896)

Is Tua the best QB in his class? - domffl - 01-15-2023 The 2020 QB class will likely go down in history as one of the most talented classes of quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen. This class contained four year-one starters that are now all leading their teams in the 2022 NFL playoffs. Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, and, the creme de la creme, Tua Tagovailoa. I know what you’re thinking, “What? You’re delusional. Tua’s the worst one in that list!” To you, I would respond, “You’re absolutely right. But my contract says I must convince you of the exact opposite.” Let’s look at the 2022 season. Like any good statistical measurement, we need to look at averages and a per-game basis instead of total year-long numbers, especially since Tua missed a few games this season due to medical inadequacies and the concussion protocol. So, let me lay out some efficiency metrics: TD rate Tagovailoa - 6.3% (1st-tied with Mahomes) Burrow - 6.0% (3rd) Hurts - 5.2% (10th) Herbert - 3.3% (25th) Pressured Completion Rate Tagovailoa - 49.2% (8th) Burrow - 42.2% (16th) Hurts - 36.3% (25th) Herbert - 57.6% (1st) Air Yards per Game Tagovailoa - 172.3 (1st) Burrow - 152.73 (4th) Hurts - 130.71 (12th) Herbert - 133 (11th) Air Yards per Attempt Tagovailoa - 5.6 (1st, next closest was J. Allen with 4.61) Burrow - 4.06 (13th) Hurts - 4.3 (6th) Herbert - 3.14 (31st) Deep Ball Completions (YEAR LONG) Tagovailoa - 54 (12th-tied) Burrow - 46 (17th-tied) Hurts - 56 (11th) Herbert - 54 (12th-tied) Deep Ball Completion Percentage Tagovailoa - 50% (2nd) Burrow - 43.5% (8th) Hurts - 42.9% (9th) Herbert - 38.9% (13th) Accuracy Rating Tagovailoa - 7.91 (6th-tied) Burrow - 8.38 (1st) Hurts - 8.07 (4th) Herbert - 7.52 (23rd) Red Zone Completion Percentage Tagovailoa - 65.3% (2nd) Burrow - 59.8% (9th) Hurts - 51.1% (22nd) Herbert - 54.8% (16th) Dropped Passes (YEAR LONG) Tagovailoa - 20 Burrow - 23 Hurts - 17 Herbert - 27 Honestly, I don’t feel like I have to do much convincing after looking through those statistics. They speak for themselves. Tua is one of the most deadly deep passers in the league. Sure, he has two of the best deep ball receivers in the league to help support him, but a receiver still needs an accurate quarterback to make those big plays. Tua is him. He’s that guy. He’s not JUST the deep ball gunslinger, he’s also got a deadly short game, as you can see from his league-leading TD rate and his next-to-league-leading Redzone completion percentage. It doesn’t matter what part of the field he is in, he produces a realistic threat to score on any given play. Now you might be saying, “hey, he had two deep ball specialist receivers, the two fastest ball catchers in the league!” And I would respond to you, “You’re absolutely right he did. And he knew it.” But I will humor you and give you some stats from his 2021 season, when he was throwing to rookie Jaylen Waddle, Albert Wilson, Devante Parker, Preston Williams, Jakeem Grant, Mack Hollins, and Mike Gesicki. Not to mention that his backfield was no help. He had the option of handing the ball off to Salvon Ahmed, Myles Gaskin, or Malcolm Brown. Teams didn’t need to stack the box against this pitiful running back group, so they allowed their linebackers to spread out and block more passing lanes. Don’t believe me? Let’s go to the stats. According to FantasyData.com, Myles Gaskin faced the lightest box of any running back in 2021 with an average of 5.34 defenders. Of all rushers with >100 carries, he ranked 1st (77.5%) in percentage of carries against a “light” box, meaning that there were 6 or fewer defenders. For reference, Nick Chubb, arguably the league’s best pure rusher, faced a light box on 25.9% (least in the league) of his carries. So the fact that Tua had ANY success as a passer in 2021 is barely short of miraculous. And though he didn’t play all 16 games, he was still fairly effective, touting the 7th highest completion percentage, 9th highest pressured completion percentage, and tied for 1st in deep ball completion percentage. But perhaps the biggest difference between the 2021 season and the 2022 season is Tua’s confidence and support that allowed him to throw the deep ball more often. He played 13 games in each season, but he only threw the deep ball 28 times in 2021 vs 54 times in 2022. What made the biggest difference? Four things. Tyreek Hill. With a nickname like “Cheetah,” what more do you expect? There is no QB that can overthrow the quickster, and hardly a defensive back that can cover him. All Tua had to do was see if there was a single-high safety and if he pulled to the weak side after the snap, he would simply loft it up for Hill to run under. That’s simple maths. QB plus Tyreek Hill equals more deep throws. Raheem Mostert. What? A 30 year old, injury prone running back made a difference? You bet your biscuit he did. He’s no bruiser and won’t move a pile like Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry, but if Raheem Mostert finds an open seam between the tackles, you better hope your safety is fast enough to cut him off. Mostert has home-run ability on every handoff. During week 1 of the 2021 season, he set the record for the fastest run any NFL player has had since 2018, reaching a top speed of 22.73 miles per hour, topping DK Metcalf’s top speed on his infamous chase down of Budda Baker on a goal line interception, where he reached 22.63 miles per hour. Then, in week 2 of that same season, he topped himself again, reaching a top speed of 23.09 miles per hour on an 80-yard touchdown run, marking the fastest an NFL player has run in the previous 5 years. Defenses knew this, so they made sure not to leave him too light a box when he was in the backfield. In 2022, Mostert faced a light box on only 39.8% of his rushes (compare to 77.5% of  Gaskin’s rushes in 2021!). Jeff Wilson, Jr. The Dolphins know Mostert was 30 years old and had likely lost a spring to his step. So they brought in his counterpart while he was in San Francisco, Jeff Wilson, Jr. Imagine a 3 year younger version of Mostert. That’s this guy. Maybe a touch slower on top end speed, but still deadly fast and a touch quicker. Mike McDaniel. His first season as a head coach after spending 5 years on the offensive coaching team in San Francisco. He knew the strengths of both Mostert and Wilson, Jr. so he brought them with him to Miami. And what a good thing he did. Even though they did not lead the league in rushing yards, they played an enormous part in allowing Tua to work. Mike McDaniel has been regarded by his offensive creativity and Miami front office hoped that he would bring some of that from the innovative 49ers offense to the Dolphins. For the most part, he did. But he’s only getting started. As this offense enters their 2nd season under McDaniel, expect to see a much more efficient offense who will be exceptionally fun to watch. So, through all this, did I convince you? I think I almost convinced myself, not gonna lie. Tua has the tools to make any NFL throw as well as All-Pro level game processing. The biggest question mark about Tua is simply: can he stay healthy? If he can play a full 16 games, you will see a true franchise quarterback, one around which the Dolphins should build their team. Thanks to @DarknessRising for paying money to make me push buttons on my screen and thanks to you, reader, for thinking I might possibly know what I’m talking about. RE: Is Tua the best QB in his class? - BenDover - 01-15-2023 tuna turndaballova RE: Is Tua the best QB in his class? - DarknessRising - 01-15-2023 RE: Is Tua the best QB in his class? - CeeKay - 01-15-2023 YES HE IS! ITS #HERBOVER RE: Is Tua the best QB in his class? - Repgnar - 01-15-2023 "now all leading their teams in the 2022 NFL playoffs" Posted an hour ago and last I checked Herbert ain't leading nothing in the playoffs. Tom Brady about to swoop in and steal this offense from Tua anyways. RE: Is Tua the best QB in his class? - domffl - 01-15-2023 Oh, I forgot to add this.