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*NickyV's Review of NickyV's Last-Second In-Depth Predictions for the S39 Season - nickyvmlp - 02-05-2023
You ever notice how sometimes in sports journalism, people just make outlandish claims or predictions just to get attention, and by the time those attention-grabbing things are proven false, it’s not held to any scrutiny, because that same person has said 50 other ridiculous things since then, so it’s hard to even remember what that original thing was? Yea, that sucks, doesn’t it? Nicky doesn't operate that way!
In today's post, I’m going to look back at all of the claims that I made in the predictions article I hastily wrote, half-drunk in one night the day before Week 1. Because I’m never afraid to be heckled. (Just do it gently, I’m very sensitive.)
Arizona Outlaws - Wendell Sailor has his best season to date, ❌
- throwing for almost 5,000 yards, ❌
- a passer rating north of 110, ❌
- a TD-to-INT ratio of at least 4 to 1, and ✅
- his third MVP. ❌
Wendell’s season would be great by anyone else’s standards but his. He didn’t quite have the passing yards anyone was expecting, but he still had most everything else. I just missed the 110 passer rating mark, as he finished the season with a rating of 109.0, son of a bitch! The 4-1 TD to INT ratio was actually a bit conservative, as it was actually about 5.5 to 1, but it wasn’t quite an MVP season, just a very, very good one.
- Jay Cue Jr. and Danny Nedelko split carries pretty much down the middle, ✅
- but Nedelko has a higher yards per carry than Cue. ✅
This one was basically right on the money. Nedelko had 209 carries to Cue’s 201, and Nedelko edged him out in yards per carry by about two tenths. (And scored ten more TDs than Cue, but that wasn’t on the list, so moving on.)
- At least three receivers will have 1200 yards, ❌
- with the fourth going over 700, ❌
- however none of them finish in the top 5 in receiving yards. ✅
Captain Stinkwater and Louis Blondin did both go over 1200 yards, with 1290 and 1280 respectively, but Kotoni Staggs had his worst season in years, not even cracking 600 yards, with Herc Kirkby not even topping 450. The last part though, I nailed super hard, as Stinkwater and Blondin finished 6th and 7th in receiving yards, with Stinkwater only two yards out of the top five. Will I use my powers of clairvoyance for good or evil? Or the most noble of causes, simulation football media posts.
- Their run defense will see a large decline, falling out of the top 5 in the category. ❌
- They’ll still struggle to get interceptions, ✅
- but fumbles will still happen. ❌
- Expect a lot of shootouts with this team. ❌
Their run D was still bangin, second best in the league, only behind Yellowknife. The interceptions were not there at all, only pulling down 10 all season, but the fumbles? They were basically mid-pack there, and while they did literally happen (16 times, in fact), I think I can safely say I was expecting more. As for the shootouts, by my completely arbitrary definition of the word (both teams scoring at least 30 points), that didn’t happen a single time for Arizona. Even if I lower my standards to 27 points, that’s still only four times this season, which is not “a lot”.
- Final record: 14-2 ❌
- 1st in ASFC ✅
If I’m more than two games off or one position off, I'll call it a miss. Didn't quite dominate like they did last season, but they still won the conference. That's pretty good right?
Overall: 6/16, 38%
Austin Copperheads - Queen Elizabeth isn’t quite as insane as she was in her first season, ✅
- but still puts up impressive numbers ✅
- and keeps this offense ticking. ✅
The Copperheads quarterback did all she needed to do to avoid the dreaded sophomore slump. Her yards and touchdowns did drop off a little, but her interceptions also dropped, and her yards per attempt soared, finishing second in the league in that category, behind only Carter Knight. Statistically speaking, she was probably the second or third best quarterback in the league, and the Austin passing offense (which is what I meant here) was still humming along.
- Johnny Patey sees a major decline in his receiving yards, putting up the lowest numbers he’s seen since his rookie season. ✅
- Meanwhile, Delores Bickerman and Zaphod Beeblebrox match their career highs ❌
- and are both in the running for the All-Pro team. ❌
Going from consistently getting 1500 receiving yards to barely cracking 1000 is a pretty major dropoff by any metric. However, Bickerman and Beeblebrox didn’t really pick up the slack, both going down in receiving yards from last season. Bickerman might have an outside shot for a Second-Team nod, but Beeblebrox is way out of the running, and I did say both of them, sooooo frick.
- Jeff Newman is the #1 runner, ❌
- but doesn’t crack the top 15 in rushing attempts. ✅
I really wanted to give myself this one, but for the moment, Ozamataz Buckshank is still just barely getting more carries than Newman, even if Newman had a better yards per carry average. However, another one I nailed was that Newman finished 16th in the league in rush attempts. BAAAAAANG!!!!
- Joey Din sets a career high in sacks, ❌
- and finishes in the top 5 in the category, ❌
- while Zamir Kahla Jr. gets his first career interception, ✅
- plus three more after that. ❌
There’s a difference between matching and setting a career high in sacks, and Din matched his career high with 10, which was nowhere near the top 5. He finished tied for 20th alongside his teammate, Joe Smokes. ZKJ did in fact get that first career interception, but he only got two on the season, not the four I predicted.
- Final record: 11-5, ✅
- 2nd in the ASFC ✅
Right on the money here. They were tied with Arizona for the lead in the division, but lost the tiebreaker to them. Big win there.
Overall: 8/13, 62%
Baltimore Hawks - King and Goose both finish with under 1000 rushing yards, ✅
- as the Hawks try to include Jake Williams more. ✅
Not quite what I expected out of the gate, but the Hawks seemed to be committed to the future of their offense by making Jake Williams the #1 runner in Baltimore, even with both Dante King and Busch Goose still ahead of him in TPE. Bold strategy, Cotton, but I respect the commitment to the future.
- Preston Beatz continues to not push the envelope and ✅
- the Hawks passing offense ranks in the bottom three in yards and touchdowns. ❌
The Hawks almost had to be conservative with their passing offense as they had basically no one to throw to aside from green as Kermit The Frog’s favorite four-leaf clover Shane Turnbull. They were last in the league in passing yards… but fourth-worst in passing TDs, are you KIDDING ME?
- The defense regresses a bit ✅
- with Woody losing a step ❌
- and Pasta not pulling down as many INTs, ✅
- although the addition of Mabel Pines will be a blessing, as she’ll be either first or second on the team in sacks. ❌
The defense regressed quite a bit more than just “a bit”, they went from third in the league in points allowed to 11th. That’s less than optimal, but you couldn’t put the blame for that on Sheriff Woody, as he was basically just as good as he’s ever been. Maybe a slight drop-off in places but not enough to be described as “losing a step”. Pasta the Turtle going from seven picks to a big, fat turtle egg, though, you just got diagnosed. As for Mabel Pines, she wasn’t quite the savior I thought she’d be, as she only recorded two sacks on the season.
- Final Record: 4-12, ✅
- 6th in NSFC ✅
Actually finished 6-10, but still exactly 6th in their conference, check and check.
Overall: 7/10, 70%
Berlin Fire Salamanders - Roque Santa Cruz wins Offensive Rookie of the Year, ❌
- continuing to keep Berlin’s passing attack going. ❌
Roque is definitely in the running for Offensive Rookie of the Year, but I think it’s more likely to go to Johnny Blaze Jr. for being the only rookie to go over 1000 scrimmage yards. However, he wasn’t quite as good as Bageshwari Singh from last season, putting up worse numbers in almost every single category.
- Hamilton leads all listed tight ends in receiving yards, ❌
- even though he mostly plays receiver. ❌
He led all tight ends in receptions, doesn’t that count? No. Fine… I’m not sure how to check if he played any outside receiver, but my guess is that if he did, he would be averaging more than six yards per reception.
- Their rushing offense is comfortably the worst in the league. ❌
This was close, since they did have the fewest yards per rush in the league, but since it was so close, I couldn’t call it “comfortably the worst”, just “probably the worst”.
- Multiple players on the Berlin defense step into bigger roles and make at least the Second-Team All-Pro. ✅
This one’s a tentative check, but I feel like a lot of Fire Salamanders pulled their weight on defense. Fred Edison was an outside MVP contender for a lot of the season, and is probably 1st-Team at linebacker. Rocco Blade led all DEs in tackles aside from Sarasota’s Harley Andrews, who was almost certainly playing at linebacker. L F.T might be a possibility at safety, but we’ll have to see. If I don’t get two Second-Teamers or better, I’ll come back and change this.
- Prediction: 11-5, ❌
- 2nd in NSFC ❌
*to the sound of a clock ringing* Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. You’re wrong. You’re wrong. You’re wrong.
Overall: 1/8, 13%
Cape Town Crash - Cape Town has a solid first season, ✅
- but it’s not too different from their time in Philly. ✅
Last season in Philly, 7-9. First season in Cape Town, 8-8. Solid, and virtually identical to when they were in Pennsylvania.
- Singh is solid if unspectacular. ❌
I’m gonna say no on this one, just because “solid if unspectacular” usually gives off game manager vibes, and Bageshwari Singh was no game manager. He led the league in interceptions, but aside from that he was third in yards, and fourth in touchdowns. His passer rating was smack-dab in the middle of the league though, so maybe. Tell me what you think.
- JHM breaks double-digit scores for the first time ever. ✅
I never specified what kind of scores, and Jarvis got eight rushing and two receiving. That’s double digits, babeeeeeeeeeeeeey.
- They have two players finish in the top ten in sacks again, ✅
- but they finish near the bottom of the league in takeaways. ❌
Dominos Pizzaman had 14, tied for 5th. Christian Marciano had 13, tied for 7th. Ding-ding. Takeaways weren’t quite as on point, as were about midpack in the category, with 28.
- Final Record: 7-9, ✅
- 5th in ASFC ✅
Almost exactly perfect. Moving on.
Overall: 6/8, 75%
Chicago Butchers - Tron Carter matches his career high in interceptions, ❌
- but it’s still an upgrade from Oles. ❌
Tron Carter turned out to be a pretty big downgrade from Kazimir Oles Jr. Aside from picks, Oles had the edge on him across the board. So much so, that the Butchers are going out and picking up a year’s supply of Adrian St. Christmas so they don’t have to use him again, while Painted Penguin waits in the wings. He didn’t even match his career high in picks, as his 14 was one behind his career high.
- Dux surprisingly gets more carries than Zohri, ❌
- and somehow does as well or better than him in yards per attempt. ❌
Lol nope. Zohri was the star of the show once again in Chicago, with him averaging a full yard per carry more than Dux.
- Morley and Sharpei both hit the millennium mark again, ❌
- and at least one hits double digit touchdowns ❌
- with the other coming close. ❌
Morley came close with 972 yards and nine touchdowns, but Sharpei was nowhere near him and lost a lot of receptions to Frank Dux, who played a lot at receiver while Zohri dominated the touches in the backfield.
- Xavier Valorian breaks double digit sacks, ✅
- and helps the defense show solid improvement. ❌
Barely got the Valorian prediction right, exactly ten sacks. That’ll do. However, their strong defense from last season hit a brick wall. They were slightly worse in yards allowed, and much, much worse in points allowed. And yet…
- Prediction: 8-8, ✅
- 4th in NSFC ✅
One of my worst prediction runs yet ends with a good landing. They finished 7-9, and 5th in the conference. That’s good enough to count.
Overall: 3/11, 27%
Colorado Yeti - The offense continues to put up less than stellar numbers ❌
- and Laughlove starts to feel the cold hand of regression. ❌
Colorado’s offense seemed to really put the pieces together, and were an actually good unit this season. They finished fourth in the league in points scored, and TE Mister Hogmally seemed to really help them over the hump. LLL didn’t seem to put off by the beginning stages of regression, and played as well or better than he had in years.
- Ceti Pyxis rushes for 1000 yards again by sheer volume. ✅
“By sheer volume” implies a low yards per carry, and that perfectly fits Ceti Pyxis’s rushing effort for the season. Just over 1000 rushing yards, and the lowest yards per carry of anyone to hit that milestone.
- Rocky Moreaux finishes in the top 3 in receiving yards, due to him being far and away the best receiver option. ✅
How about top 1? Moreaux was the only receiver this season to crack 1400 yards, which seems low for the league leader, but there you go. He’ll probably make the First-Team All-Pro from that effort.
- The DL duo of Nathan Explosion and Aidan Hutchinson Jr. are both among the leaders at their position in sacks. ❌
Explosion had five, Hutchinson also had five. Not quite leaders of their position.
- Prediction: 3-13, ❌
- last in NSFC ❌
Big wrong here. The turnaround in Colorado is going very well.
Overall: 2/7, 29%
Honolulu Hahalua - The Honolulu offense is not the worst fucking thing I’ve ever witnessed in my life, ✅
I’ve seen the Cats movie, so Honolulu wins there.
- and can keep up with some teams this season. ✅
Bit of a layup here, but even ignoring the games they won, they stayed competitive in a lot of games.
- Montagne is very conservative with the ball ❌
- and doesn't force herself into terrible positions. ✅
Can’t really call the person who led the league in pass attempts “conservative”, but I feel like that was a byproduct of being behind so much. Nova’s interception percentage was actually not terrible, all things considered, so I’ll give her a bit of a pass on this one.
- Friedman wins Defensive Rookie of the Year, ❌
- by simply producing something in this unholy defense. ✅
I think the Defensive Rookie of the Year race is a crowded show with MJF, Caleb Hayden, Antoine Winfield Jr., and Waylen Greene all vying for the title, but I think someone else will take it from him, maybe even his own teammate, Hayden. But he certainly showed a lot of promise, and could be a captain of this defense sooner rather than later.
- And yes, they win a game. I pity the poor team that has that indignity placed on them. ✅
I could’ve made that a two-part prediction, but my own pitying is something I can control, so that seems unfair. They won a game though, three in fact. Mozlotov. The start of good things hopefully.
- Final record: 1-15, ✅
- last in ASFC ✅
I almost called this a miss because Honolulu seemed to exceed expectations here, but it was still within two games, so I guess I’ll be right about this.
Overall: 7/9, 78%
New Orleans Second Line - The Stig leads the league in rushing yards ❌
- and is an MVP finalist again. ❌
Stig was close on this one, finishing second in the league in rushing yards, about 70 yards behind Orange County’s Zane Cold. And if he’s an MVP finalist, then the voters and I feel very different about these kinds of things, because he was a fringe honorable mention in my rankings. He’ll probably get a Second-Team nod, if I had to guess.
- The passing game makes a jump ❌
- and Jones has a significant jump in passing attempts. ✅
Is 35 more attempts a “significant jump”? I’m going to say maybe, but lean towards a yes. I have a feeling this is going to be a pretty bad group for me. The number of attempts though was basically the only thing that improved for New Orleans’s passing attack, as most of Elessar Jones’s stats went down on the season.
- A few members of this defense besides the Czargyros Twins make the All-Pro team. ❌
Morpheus Czargyros had a great season at defensive end, leading his position in sacks. And Orpheus was tied for second in the league in picks. Both of them will probably make the All-Pro team again, maybe even getting First-Team honors, but what about other Second Linemen? De’Aaron Harper II and JR Frankenstero are both possible Second-Teamers, but for now, I’m going to say a tentative no. But I’ll come back if I’m wrong.
- Final record: 10-6, ✅
- third in ASFC ✅
Like with Chicago, even though I didn’t get many of the individual players right, I did get their final record pretty much right. They were 8-8, but they still got the ASFC’s #3 seed.
Overall: 3/7, 43%
New York Silverbacks - They’re fine. ✅
- Final record: 7-9, ✅
- 5th in ASFC ✅
I felt a little bad not going into further detail about New York. I didn’t have a lot to say about them, time was running out, and just kinda gave up for a bit. But I feel less bad knowing that I was basically right, especially considering that I’m almost positive there wasn’t a single Silverback who appeared in my MVP Rankings post, even as an Honorable Mention. Moving right along.
Overall: 3/3, 100%
Orange County Otters - This team will rank in the top 3 in scoring offense, ❌
- and bottom 3 in scoring defense. ✅
I really overestimated the power of playing from behind, this offense was nowhere near as potent as I was hoping for.
- Shinomiya throws for almost 5000 passing yards because he’s in a lot of shootouts, ❌
- while Zane Cold has a relatively down season. ❌
Do QB rushing yards count for triple? Because that’s the only way this one will work. This offense just works better when it focuses on the run, so expecting a ton of passing yards from Kaguya Shinomiya is a recipe for disaster. Especially when Zane Cold is breaking 2000 yards from scrimmage. He’ll probably be the focal point of this offense for years to come.
- Sim Sunigh has a particularly good rookie season, ✅
- and is a finalist for Defensive Rookie of the Year. ❌
Maaaaaaybe? He might make it in as the fifth of five finalists for the award, but I wouldn’t put money on it. He was fourth among rookies in tackles with 94, so he might get in, but for now, I’ll say no.
- Final record: 6-10, ✅
- 6th in ASFC ✅
I’m starting to see how I got 10 TPE when the Season Prediction point task came in, this part is going pretty well for me so far.
Overall: 4/8, 50%
San Jose Sabercats - Owen Ferrell struggles a bit more this season without Louis Blondin, ✅
- but this is still a formidable offense, ✅
- with a ground game that should improve from last season.❌
You look at Owen Ferrell’s stats, and you’d think, “mmmm, there should be another 10 TDs here”. Well, those TDs probably belonged to Blondin. This offense still managed to finish 5th in points allowed, which isn’t that bad. What is that bad was San Jose’s ground game, because despite a 1000+ TPE rusher, a not-terrible defense, and a receiver corps that didn’t get good until the trade deadline, they finished last in rushing yards. I don’t understand anything.
- DeShawn Penne bounces back from his down season, ✅
- and helps the Sabercats to a .500 record. ❌
Define “bounce back season”. He went from 698 receiving yards to 863 receiving yards, is that a lot for a tight end? I think I’ll call it good, and just move on. The overall record, though? One game short. Goddamnit.
- Someone on this defense is in the top 5 in picks, seemingly out of nowhere. ❌
No one on this defense was in the top 5 in picks. Guy Gibson led the team with five, which tied him for sixth. Feck.
- Final record: 8-8, ✅
- 4th in ASFC ✅
Overall: 5/8, 63%
Sarasota Sailfish - Carter Knight finishes top 3 in passing yards ✅
- and touchdowns, ✅
- and is an MVP finalist. ✅
Carter Knight is probably going to win the darn thing this season because he was easily the best quarterback in the league this season, leading the league in yards and touchdowns. I’ve gushed about him enough in my MVP Rankings, so go read those and leave me alone.
- Johnny Blaze Jr. has a breakout season, ✅
- and Sconnie McSix goes over 1400 receiving yards. ❌
I mentioned Johnny Blaze Jr. earlier and how he’ll likely end up as Offensive Rookie of the Year, so that’s a good breakout season, I’d say. Sconnie was pretty good, finishing with 1152 yards, but that’s not quite 1400. Although only one person hit 1400 this season, so *shrug*.
- Three players on defense record 11 sacks or more, ❌
- and three players also record at least four forced fumbles. ❌
Two Sailfish got 12 sacks on the season, Harley Andrews and Lenny Kekua. The next closest had eight. Nope. Even worse, the team leader in forced fumbles for the Sailfish had only three. Nope squared.
- Final record: 12-4, ✅
- 1st in NSFC ✅
Overall: 6/9 (nice), 67%
Yellowknife Wraiths - Their offense will be a bit limited by the young quarterback, ❌
- but I think St. Christmas will grow well so close to the North Pole, and develop with his young, stout offense. ❌
Everyone, point and laugh at the silly pony man for how silly and wrong he was. The Wraiths' offense wasn’t limited by anyone or anything. Adrian St. Christmas wasn’t necessarily the focal point of the offense, and he didn’t really have to be, but he was still really darn good in this offense.
- Both running backs go over 1000 yards on the ground, ❌
- and both receivers do the same through the air. ✅
I was expecting more of an even split in carries between Kumquat Archipelago and Adebayo Akinfenwa, but Kumquat was just too darn good to let that happen, especially near the goal line. Bernd D. Brot and Calvin Spiff pretty easily cleared the 1K barrier, but I feel like that’s easier for a pair of teammates to do. I regret not predicting anything about Yellowknife’s defense, but at the rate this was going, I’d probably call them overrated and smelly.
- Prediction: 10-6, ❌
- 3rd in NSFC ❌
I greatly underestimated how well this offense could cook with a novice at quarterback, and generally missed how good this team could be straight away. My bad.
Overall: 1/6, 17%
Total overall: 62/123, 50%
So what have we learned? Well, for all of my hours of typing, you’d get just as many correct predictions as you’d from flipping a coin, except that doesn’t make me bank. Thanks for the money, suckers!
RE: NickyV's Review of NickyV's Last-Second In-Depth Predictions for the S39 Season - WildfireMicro - 02-05-2023
Every prediction is a crapshoot because the sim does what it wants
RE: NickyV's Review of NickyV's Last-Second In-Depth Predictions for the S39 Season - Baron1898 - 02-05-2023
Kinda rude anti-NYS bias smh
RE: NickyV's Review of NickyV's Last-Second In-Depth Predictions for the S39 Season - nickyvmlp - 02-05-2023
(02-05-2023, 12:01 PM)Baron1898 Wrote: Kinda rude anti-NYS bias smhDidn't mean for it to be like that, I just didn't know what to write about them.