International Simulation Football League
*ISFL Sportsbook S40 Week 8 Recap - Week 9 Bets - Printable Version

+- International Simulation Football League (https://forums.sim-football.com)
+-- Forum: Community (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=5)
+--- Forum: Media (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=37)
+---- Forum: Graded Articles (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=38)
+---- Thread: *ISFL Sportsbook S40 Week 8 Recap - Week 9 Bets (/showthread.php?tid=44074)

*ISFL Sportsbook S40 Week 8 Recap - Week 9 Bets - CROney3 - 03-08-2023

This is not gambling advice. If you lose money by using this, don't be mad at me as I have no idea what I'm doing.

Hi all! 

It seems as though I've started to gain a reputation for being a degenerate gambler. And, well, I suppose it is warranted. And unfortunately, I'm not very good at it! I'm 1 for 3 on user bets so far. While it does make the games more exciting to watch and provides something to look forward to, I will probably be paring down my user bets. So what I will be doing, instead, is trying to figure out the best way to gamble using the Sportsbook! 

I've only recently begun to utilize the Sportsbook for ISFL games. Even though I'm a lowly DSFL'er, I wanted to learn more about the ISFL and its teams/players. As an avid in-real-life fantasy football addict, I figured I would try out the fantasy aspect of the ISFL. It has been a blast and has been a great way to learn about the teams and players, along with provide extra incentive to watch the games. As I've become more familiar with the names of players, I started to look into the over/under bets provided by the Sportsbook. So that is where the idea for this article started!

The goal of this article/series is to look at the prop bets provided by the Sportsbook and see how well (or terrible) I can do on a weekly basis. Since I don't have unlimited money, I can't gamble on every bet, but I still wanted to find out how I'd do if I had to guess the correct answer. I enjoy doing parlay's so I will likely continue doing 2 or 3 leg parlays each week. I want to provide some analysis on each prop as to my thinking of how I am analyzing it. I only started this analysis for week 8, so I'll provide a snapshot of what I thought would happen, what I bet on, and how my picks turned out. Then I'll go into my week 9 prop analysis. I will list the week of the bet, the player, the over/under prop, what my guess is, did I actually bet on it, the final result, and if I hit.

So without further ado, here is my week 8 over/under bets:

[Image: 437denV.png]

So I got 4 out of 6 right, but unfortunately, my 3-leg parlay did not hit as I did not think Newman would get a TD. I won't spend much time going over my analysis for week 8 since it's already over (and I mostly forgot at this point). Going forward, however, will get more analysis.

Here are my week 9 prop bets:
[Image: QEx145y.png]

This one I'm only doing a 2-leg parlay until I can figure out what types of bets I'm better at spotting. I also doubled down on the Live Laughlove bet as I think that one seems like a gimme.

Live Laughlove (QB) - over/under 1.5 TD's: As mentioned, this one seems like a gimme as LLL is near the top of the ISFL in passing touchdowns. While Colorado does play #1 Arizona this week, I still can't imagine a scenario where he doesn't hit the over.

Pet Zuh (RB) - o/u 76.5 rushing yards: I'm sure Pete is having an underwhelming season by his own standards. He's averaging 78.1 yards rushing per game, so just above the line. Sarasota is #4 in the league for passing yards per game but are #11 in rushing yards per game. However, they play OCO this week, which is allowing the 2nd most rushing yards per game to opposing teams at an incredible 128.4 average. I like Zuh to hit the over on this one.

Austin Morley (WR) - o/u 85.5 receiving yards: Morley is averaging just under 6 catches and 84 yards per game this season as Chicago's #1. They are a middle of the road time when it comes to the passing offense. However, they matchup this week again Austin, who has a much more formidable run defense compared to their pass defense. I expect above average passing numbers for Chicago, meaning Morley should be able to hit the over on this one.

President Camacho (WR) - o/u 5.5 receptions: This one seemed like a good value bet, too, as Camacho is averaging 6.4 receptions per game. SJS is #3 in the league for passing offense, so you know Farrell is going to sling it around. However, Cape Town has a very good defense against both the run and the pass. I envision SJS needing to pass the ball quite a bit, and therefore Camacho should be able to hit the over fairly easily. I would be more worried if this was a yardage prop instead of receptions.

Fred Edison (LB) - o/u 8.5 tackles: Edison is tied for the lead in tackles this season (60) which comes to 7.5 per game. Berlin, currently the worst team in the league (record wise), will be facing off against the 2nd worst team in the league, New York. I envision this will be a run-heavy script for both teams, as New York likes to run and their pass defense (#1 overall) is much better than their run defense. That means we may not get many possessions and will limit tackle opportunities. Admittedly, I'm not positive which type of gamescript is better for this type of bet, but that's my current thought process. 8.5 tackles seems like a lot, so I would bet the under (but it wouldn't surprise me to see him hit the over).

Mike Makmur (K) - o/u 8.5 kicking points: I'll keep this one short and sweet. Kicking is random so you're trying to guess a few different factors. Makmur is #2 in XP's made but is 9th in FG made. Currently, Baltimore is #2 scoring offense in the league at 27.8 points per game, while boasting the 2nd worst scoring defense (33.0 points per game). Going against a team, Honolulu, which has an awful defense but great offense, I see this as a high scoring game. So I'm taking the over.

Franz-Udo Culman-Kaiser (OL) - o/u 5.5 pancakes: Much like the tackling prop, I'm still trying to figure out which type of game-script will lead to more pancakes. However, getting 6 pancakes against Yellowknife seems like a tall order. Only 5 non-BOT lineman have done that this season. For that reason, I am taking the under on 5.5 pancakes.

So that concludes my Week 8 recap and Week 9 betting adventure. I'm debating on doing this post for each game or if I want to recap a few weeks at once to save on articles. We'll see how cumbersome it becomes and I appreciate any feedback that y'all have for me!

RE: ISFL Sportsbook S40 Week 8 Recap - Week 9 Bets - Frostbite - 03-08-2023

I’ll bet 5m on each and lyk how it goes

RE: ISFL Sportsbook S40 Week 8 Recap - Week 9 Bets - CROney3 - 03-08-2023

(03-08-2023, 05:50 PM)Frostbite Wrote: I’ll bet 5m on each and lyk how it goes
Don't forget to tip your dealer.