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*Week 10 Recap and Week 11 Bets - Printable Version

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*Week 10 Recap and Week 11 Bets - CROney3 - 03-13-2023

Overall, this week was a good one from a predictions standpoint! I hit 5 of the 7 props, bringing my 3 week total to 11 hits and 9 misses. I just need to figure out my actual bets a bit better as my last parlay hit was week 7. I’ll get there though. So let’s look at my week 10 recap to see what I got and what I  missed:

[Image: IFEMCty.png]

Preston Beatz (BAL) - Over 299.5 Pass Yds: This game went about how I expected it to, with Beatz passing the ball 53 times compared to 18 rushing attempts by the running backs. Beatz is now tied for most passing attempts and is the yardage leader through 10 games. Baltimore’s passing attack is one to bet on for any upcoming prop bets. I felt like that one was easy and should have doubled down.

Danny Nedelko (AZ) - Over 114.5 Rush Yds: What an absolute MONSTER game by Nedelko. He ended up going for 180 yards and 3 scores. He also ended up with 20 carries compared to only 6 for Blue Jr, which surprised me. Not just because of how they have been using both backs this year, but the game got out of hand quickly so I was surprised they didn’t utilize the backups more. Either way, I was spectacularly wrong on this one and Honolulu’s young defense is one to target for offensive props.

Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee phenssta (COL) - Over 83.5 Rec Yds: Eeeee got a decently long TD score this game, which went for 47 yards. Even removing that long reception, phenssta would have still hit the over on this one. With 13 targets and 9 catches, both above their season averges, phenssta was able to hit the over on this one. I’m starting to get the feeling that non-QB yardage props may be tough to predict.
Dusty Wilson (YKW) - Over 6.5 Pancakes: Yellowknife attempted its season average of 34 passes this game, so I was wrong that they would need to pass MORE but at least it was a close enough game that they continued to pass throughout the game. I saw this prop as a coinflip with a slight hunch towards the over so it feels good to get this one right.

Cruella de Ville (SJS) - Under 7.5 Tackles: Cruella finished the game with 4 tackles (and a sack!), so I should have felt better about this one than I did. Chicago only ran the ball 18 times and only completed 20 passes, so it may have just been a product of lack of opportunities for de Ville. I’m still working on figuring out what leads to more tackles for the defensive positions, so it felt good to get this one right.

OCO Defense - Under 1.5 Int: OCO continued their 1 interception per game average, but could only get a fumble recovery as an additional turnover. Queen Elizabeth II struggled this game, only hitting 50% of the attempted passes as Austin struggled to move the ball. With the sheer number of pass attempts (42), I’m a bit surprised that more weren’t intercepted, but OCO’s defense did a nice job holding the Copperhead offense to only 10 points.

Alfonso Dos Santos (NOLA) - Under 44.5 FG Long: Dos Santos did attempt a 50 yarder this game towards the end of the first half, however it was no good. Then the next drive, a 2 yard rush on 3rd down set Dos Santos up to attempt (and make) a 44 yard field goal. That was the last opportunity for NOLA to allow Dos Santos an attempt near the prop yardage. So it was pretty darn close. Just like in real life, kicking predictions will likely be wonky and will likely just have to be a gut feel more than anything that can be analyzed.

Now let's see what we're working with for Week 11:

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Well this is a weird week for prop bets. And only 6 to choose from. Let's try to break these down.

Creg Jerrith IV (CTC) – o/u 0.5 interceptions: Negs has only thrown 5 interceptions on the year. Arizona has forced the 2nd most interceptions on the year with 16, so something has to give. With Arizona boasting one of the best run defenses in the league, Cape Town will likely pass more often than they would like. With that combination, I’m taking the over that Jerrith only needs 1 pick to hit this one.

Leandre Diarra (OCO) – o/u 6.5 carries + receptions: I had never heard of Leandre prior to this bet, so when I looked up the name, I see that Diarra is a fullback! OCO is easily the most run heavy team in the league and Diarra is averaging 4.1 carries per game and 3.1 receptions per game. New Orleans has a middle of the road rush defense, so that should be seen as a positive for OCO as they’ll want to continue to run the ball. This is a bit of a gut call as I have not looked into fullbacks at all, but I’m taking the over.

Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee phenssta (COL) – o/u 87.5 Rec Yds: This is pretty much the same bet as last week. The targets and receptions from week 10 are encouraging, however. Going up against last place Baltimore is also encouraging as they are up there with Honolulu in points allowed, meaning phenssta should have plenty of opportunities to break a long one. I’m taking the over on this bet.

David Doug (CHI) – o/u 1.5 punts inside 20: Another position I have not spent any time on, punting! Quickly looking over the stats, Doug is averaging 1.8 punts inside the 20. I feel like this is random, flip-of-the-coin type bet that you’re basically at the mercy of the sim. I don’t think Chicago will have more than a couple punts this game, so I’m taking the under.

Lalu Muhammad Zohri (CHI) – o/u 0.5 sacks allowed: Well this is a new one! I figured an offensive lineman would be used on this type of prop bet, but looks like I’m trying to figure out how this one will play out. So far, Zohri has let up 6 sacks this season. Chicago is middle of the road for pass attempts, and going against Berlin, I don’t think they’ll need to pass more than usual. Zohri will be tasked with running out the clock instead of keeping St. Christmas upright. I’m taking the under.

Spottie O’Dopaliscious (AZ) – o/u 1.5 pass deflections: Averaging 1.9 pass deflections per game, Spottie ranks #7 in the league. As mentioned in the Jerrith section, Cape Town will likely need to pass more against #1 Arizona. I think this is another coin flip type prop, but I’ll be taking the over on this one.

So good luck to everyone this week! I'm taking Jerrith over and phenssta over in my parlay, and I'll be doubling down on Jerrith this week. I really want add in the Diarra prop to the parlay but I have no idea on that one so I'm going to leave it out and hit on the two bets that I'm pretty confident in. Again, this is not advice (or it is advice if you do the opposite)!

RE: Week 10 Recap and Week 11 Bets - furiousPanda - 03-13-2023

money

RE: Week 10 Recap and Week 11 Bets - aeonsjenni - 03-13-2023

Can't wait for the article that comes after you either:

lose all your money to a series of bad bets

or

make like 20,000,000 on a parlay

RE: Week 10 Recap and Week 11 Bets - CROney3 - 03-13-2023

(03-13-2023, 03:09 PM)aeonsjenni Wrote: Can't wait for the article that comes after you either:

lose all your money to a series of bad bets

or

make like 20,000,000 on a parlay
Haha, well thankfully parlays are capped at a 1 mil max so even if they don't hit, I'm not out much. These articles are more than covering my habits, haha.

But I am waiting for the week where I think I have it all figured out and I go for broke  Big Grin

RE: Week 10 Recap and Week 11 Bets - br0_0ker - 03-13-2023

who in the Casino dept loves phenssta so much?