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*Week 12 Props Recap; Week 13 Prop Bets - CROney3 - 03-16-2023 There’s a lot of green on the graphic below! It was a good week and felt good, especially since I hit all 3 of my parlay bets plus doubled down on Pyxis. Looks like the streak continues of alternating good and bad weeks, so that doesn’t bode well for this week. But we’ll find out! First, let’s recap the week 12 bets. Kaguya Shinomiya (OCO) – over 35.5 rushing yds: Phew, Shinomiya barely hit the over on this one, getting a short run at the end of the game to hit the over. I was getting worried about this one, but OCO pulled out to a good lead so they just ran the clock out. I’ll be more wary of bets like this, good it felt good to hit the over though. Abedayo Akinfenwa (YKW) – over 99.5 rushing yds: Well, Adebayo just went nuts in week 12, eh. It didn’t take long to rack up the yards (or the TD’s!). Pretty sure the over was hit in the 2nd quarter. Not much else to say about this dominating performance. Ceti Pyxis (COL) – over 29.5 receiving yds: This was a tough game for Colorado, but the game script at least went how I thought it would go. Pyxis ended up with 7 catches on 7 targets, easily hitting the over at 83 receiving yards. I’ll keep in mind that Berlin seems to give up the yardage to running backs. I’m glad to see this one hit since I doubled down on it by betting an extra million. Leek Mai-Heinous (HON) – over 82.5 receiving yds: I guess I should have been more confident in Leek. Leek hit the over in the first quarter and finished with a monster game. Like Adebayo, there isn’t much to say on this one other than it was fun to watch a dominating performance. King Zeus (SAR) – over 1.5 pass deflections: The stat line for this game was an interesting one. As mentioned in the last article, New York did not have any one person defend more than 1 pass when they threw less than 30 times. Well, this game saw Savage only attempt 21 passes and only 5 went incomplete. Of those 5, 3(!) were pass deflections by Zeus. What a crazy stat. The pass deflection props will be tough to be consistent on, I think. But this was the only one I got wrong this week, so I’ll take it! Levy Tate (AUS) – under 2.5 punts inside 20: This one was probably pretty close to hitting the over. Tate ended up punting 5 times and got 2 of them inside the 20. Austin just had trouble moving the ball, as I suspected, so there were a few deep shots that had no chance of ending up there. This type of bet is definitely luck (aka sim) driven. Glad to be right, but not hanging my hat on this type of bet. Swantavious Payne (CTC) – under 7.5 pancakes: Even though I had the under, I figured it would be a lot closer than how it actually played out. Cape Town attempted 37 passes (and ran the ball 26 times) so I would have thought that there was enough opportunities for Payne to hit the over. But he only ended up with 4 pancakes, which is surprising to me. HJM actually had more than Payne, with 7 pancakes. Probably another wonky sim statistic that can be hard to predict, but again, I’ll take it. I’m glad that was a good week and my bets paid off! Just means more gambling for the future (after weekly training and equipment is budgeted for, of course). Let’s break down the week 13 props: Owen Farrell (SJS) – o/u 299.5 passing yds: Farrell is 3rd in the league in passing yards and 2nd in attempts. Good news for this bet is that San Jose is going up against Honolulu, which as we know has a high scoring offense but an even higher score allowing (?) defense. Seems like any prop that has a player at their average, and they’re going against Hon, take the over. Edit: I forgot to mention the addition if WR Sconnie McSix. This just provides an even bigger boost to the passing offense Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin (CTC) - 22.5 rushing attempts: Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin, or JHM as I’ll call him, is having an incredible season, leading the league in attempts, yards, and rushing touchdowns. Averaging 24 attempts per game, Cape Town has no problems giving him the ball. Last time they faced Berlin, HJM had 26 carries for 131 yards and 2 touchdowns. I would anticipate that Cape Town will go back to the well on this one and feed the beast. JHM will easily hit the over on this one. OCO/NYS – o/u 3.5 rush TDs: This seems like a trap bet, as these two teams are two of the best rushing teams in the league. Orange County outpaces all teams by far in almost every rushing category. The one category they don’t? Average yards per carry, which is led by none other than New York. With a combined 35 rushing touchdowns on the year, and Orange County being one of the worst rushing defenses on the year, I don’t know how you CAN’T take the over on this one. Deshawn Penne (AUS) – o/u 5.5 receptions: This one definitely screams coinflip. Penne is Austin’s 3rd leading pass catcher and not far behind the other 2. Going against Baltimore, teams have been able to feed their tight ends, so that bodes well for Penne. That being said, I’m taking the under on this one. I do want it on the record that if the over hits, it’ll be 6 catches. Kumquat Archipelago (YKW) – o/u 89.5 scrimmage yds: Yellowknife is just loaded, aren’t they? Last week was Akinfenwa who easily hit the 100 yards needed and this week we’re guessing on his backfield mate in Archipelago. Kumquat is used more in the passing game than in the running game, so that’s  likely the type of yardage needed to hit the over. Colorado has a decent run defense but a poor pass defense. Kumquat had 9 targets last time these teams faced off but didn’t get enough receptions to get the yardage to hit the over. This one has me stumped, but gut feel has the under on this one. Carissa Van Campen (NOLA) – o/u 7.5 tackles: Van Campen is having a hell of year. Tied for 6th in tackles, 2nd in TFLs, and 5th in sacks, Carissa is everywhere. Other than the two blowouts against Honolulu, Arizona has run enough plays to allow at least 1 player to get over 8 tackles. So because of those factors, I’m going to take the over on this one. Dee Walt (CHI) – o/u 1.5 PDs: Dee is having a good year in the PD department. Enough to ensure the over on this one? I’m not sure. Dee is the top safety in the league when it comes to PDs, but I’m still concerned about opportunities (and sim gonna sim). Sarasota is just above average in pass attempts so I think Walt just won’t have enough chances to hit the over. I’m taking the under. A couple of these props seem as easy as taking candy from a baby but this is my week to get more wrong than right. That being said, I’m going to parlay the over bets on Farrell, JHM, and OCO/NYS. I’m going to lay some extra bets on the rushing props. Hopefully this week pays off similar to last week as my side bet with @rake and @uptown for March Madness probably will not pay off. Good luck everyone!