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*Week 13 Prop Recap; Week 14 Prop Bets - CROney3 - 03-19-2023 Well, I hope you are all enjoying March Madness! Or maybe not, depending on how your bracket is going. Mine, not so great anymore.  For week 13, I shouldn't be surprised in more red than green this week since that seems to be the theme. I got a couple nice hits but would have been nice to hit the parlay since I bet some extra on those props. Both the Farrell and OCO/NYS bets really surprised me. More on that after we review the table: Owen Farrell (SJS) – under 299.5 passing yds: I’m just not sure how Farrell didn’t even get close to 300 in this one. Even getting a late 42 yard TD to new wide receiver Sconnie McSix was not enough to be in the realm. Very frustrating game to watch as I cannot put my finger on the reason for the reduced output. Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin (CTC) – over 22.5 rushing attempts: I don’t need to say much about this one. JHM is a beast and Cape Town has no problems with giving him the ball. I’m glad at least one of my bets hit to make up for the other losses, haha. OCO/NYS – under 3.5 rush TDs: Yep, it was definitely a trap. With 2 quick rushing touchdowns in the 2nd quarter, I had some hope on this one that I wouldn’t have to sweat it out. From there, it was a defensive ball game as both teams drove down but suffered stops or turnovers. No one could break a long TD run. I still liked my odds but it just didn’t work out this time. Deshawn Penne (AUS) – over 5.5 receptions: “I do want it on the record that if the over hits, it’ll be 6 catches.” That is a direct quote from my last article. And I nailed it as Penne got a late touchdown catch to get to 6 receptions. I knew it would be close so I’m not going to harp on this one much. Kumquat Archipelago (YKW) – over 89.5 scrimmage yds: I’m not surprised the over it (even though I said under, ugh) but I am surprised at how evenly it was spread out. 64 receiving yards and 65 rushing yards makes for a good day overall. They gave Kumquat 11 carries which seems like it’s above the norm and they made the most of it. Great game for Kumquat! Carissa Van Campen (NOLA) – over 7.5 tackles: Van Campen continued the dominance, getting 8 tackles, 2 TFLs, a sack and a pass deflection. As mentioned, I liked the factors that led to increased opportunities and Carissa took advantage of it. Glad to at least get a defensive one right! Dee Walt (CHI) – under 1.5 PDs: I got lucky on this one I think. Sarasota attempted 49 passes this game, so there should have been plenty of opportunities for Dee to get a 2nd pass deflection. That said, I think this is still a stat that’s hard to guess how it will play out so I’ll take the W’s while I can. Now let’s see what week 14 brings us! Carter Knight (SAR) – o/u 0.5 interceptions: Knight has had a good season in terms of interceptions, only tossing 9 so far on the year. They face off against Berlin this week, who is just above average in total interceptions this season. Knight has currently gone 3 straight games without a pick. I think that means he is due for one and so I’m taking the over. Jay Cue Jr (NOLA) – o/u 15.5 rush attempts: Jay Cue is on the tail end of his career, but if I remember right, has a clause to get all the carries. Averaging over 17 carries a game, Cue should be able to run all over the Austin run defense which is ranked 7th in the league. I’m taking the over on this one and will be using it in my parlay. Waluigi Gronkowski (HON) – o/u 0.5 drops: Gronk is having a fantastic year for Hon. And for my fantasy team, which has been fun to watch. Drops are a funky stat in the sim, which he’s got 7 so far this year. Silverbacks have a pretty good defense so this game will be interesting. Tight ends get fed decently against them. I’m going to go with my gut on this one and say that Gronk does not drop a pass. Cape Town – o/u 27.5 points: Cape Town leans on HJM for their offense so I’d expect him to be the reason that CTC hits the over or under. Colorado has a pretty sneaky defense in terms of yardage, so I’m not sure how their record is what it is. They give up a decent chunk of points and I think Negs tosses a score at the end of the game to put them over. Levy Tate (AUS) – o/u 0.5 FG missed: Tate is averaging the 2nd most field goal attempts on the season but is also the worst kicker in terms of field goal percentage. NOLA has a good defense, so Tate may not get a ton of opportunities this game. However, I think NOLA’s stout defense will bend but not break, allowing Tate to try decently long field goals and with that track record, at least 1 will be wide. I’m taking the over. Caleb Hayden (HON) – o/u 6.5 tackles: Hayden is currently 6th in the league in tackles at 7.2 per game. Caleb got 7 tackles last time Honolulu played against Austin. I don’t have much to analyze on this one as Hayden is just a damn good player and 6.5 seems a little low for a player of this caliber. Well that wraps up my week 13 recap and week 14 analysis. I’m going to go with a 3-leg parlay this week and will add some extra juice on one of the bets. I’m taking the Cue Jr, Cape Town, and Levy Tate overs. I’m going to add a bit extra to the Cue Jr bet as I think that one seems low to me. Good luck to everyone and I hope your March Madness brackets aren’t completely ruined yet! RE: Week 13 Prop Recap; Week 14 Prop Bets - DREAMSLOTH - 03-19-2023 Seems like great advice to me! Please keep doing these analyses, they are awesome reads.