*Lips' Picks Week Six - Printable Version +- International Simulation Football League (https://forums.sim-football.com) +-- Forum: Community (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=5) +--- Forum: Media (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=37) +---- Forum: Graded Articles (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=38) +---- Thread: *Lips' Picks Week Six (/showthread.php?tid=45216)

*Lips' Picks Week Six - Chicken Lips - 04-25-2023 After getting absolutely scorched by @CROney3 on his prop bets and losing my hard earned $100k, I am taking this into my own hands. Let me preface with that I barely understand how to read football stats beyond passing and rushing yards, but I am going to give it my best. Also, I have terrible luck gambling. The last time I was in Vegas I got continually beat down by blackjack after blackjack and as soon as I got up from the table I dropped a $500 chip that seemingly disappeared into the ether. So hopefully any articles I write about these prop bets can help me offset the cost of any stupid decisions. With the disclaimer out of the way here is a summary of my week 5 results and my picks for week 6. Week 5 Summary: Following CrOney’s spotty advice, I bet on the Scoonie Over and the Howard Coward Over going into week 5. Scoonie was a quick let down only receiving 6 completions, running it down to the wire. Ironically, I was more confident in this pick than the Howard Coward line. Howard had other ideas. He absolutely crushed it going for 98 yards blowing out the 75.5 line. Props to him in his sophomore year at NOLA. Due to the casino rake I lost $100,000 on the first week which is not much in the grand scheme of things. This paragraph alone should pay for that. Looks like CrOney also lost 100k, based on his bank history so all things are even. I unfortunately didn’t place any other bets as I wanted to test the water when it came to these prop bets (first time be gentle). Current Profit: (-$100,000) Week 6 Props: Willier Miller (SAR) Passing Yards (255.5) UNDER PP – Willier has shown a lot of promise with multiple games throwing for 300 or more. However this week SAR is up against BER. BER has the top defense in the league right now. Look at week 4 YKW vs BER, that snooze fest of a game was only field goals. No chance Miller puts up more than 255 yards. BER’s last opponents from weeks 1 through 5 through for 217, 128, 212, 264 and 206 respectively. Outside of YKW the other teams are averaging much higher than their totals against BER. Looking at Miller’s performance he has thrown for 355, 263, 302, 359, 201 yards in the previous weeks. His most comparable performance to a previous BER opponent is BAL’s Beatz who has thrown for 423, 248, 441, 264 and 250 yards, even with multiple 400+ yd games Beatz was held to 264 yards against BER. I am giving SAR the win this game but it isn’t going to be because Miller threw bombs down the field. Howard Coward (AUS) Rushing Yards (65.5) OVER PP – Howard Coward crushed the 75.5 rushing yards last week, getting 24 carries and 98 total yards. Granted this was against NOLA, arguably the worst team in the league right now. This week AUS is up against the Chicago Butchers who haven’t shown a propensity to stop the run. AUS has shown that they focusing on running the ball and are letting Howard get the ball and let him do his thing. I went OVER last week and this seems like just as easy as a decision. Dick Grayson (NOLA) Receiving Yards (72.5) UNDER – Last week NOLA traded off Mada so Grayson is sitting at WR#2 and has been getting more targets over previous weeks. NOLA pretty much only has a passing offense, but that isn’t saying much given the overall state of the team. BUT BUT BUT not only is Grayson sitting at about a 50% catch rate NOLA is playing HON this week. HON has shown to have a decent pass defense, preventing some explosive plays. This is by far my weakest pick that I am actually putting money on, but it is partially a bet on the 6-0 HON dream. NCADV RAINN (COL) Receptions (4.5) OVER PP – RAINN has only had one game below 5 receptions and in that he received 4. Also, in that game he received the fewest targets out of the receivers. Since that game he has moved up in target priority.  The Yeti are playing against Cape Town who won’t be a push over and haven’t been able to break up a lot of passes. With Yeti’s pass focused offense likely to see RAINN bust through this line. Originally, I wasn’t sure about this one, but as I am writing this, I feel more confident in this pick over the Dick Grayson line. Adding this to the Parlay. John Stark (OCO) Tackles (6.5) OVER – This is where my knowledge of football stats starts to blur, and the nuance of defense makes me double check myself. In the first 5 games Stark racked up 11, 8, 3, 6, and 4 tackles, giving him an average of 6.4 tackles. Even that average doesn’t want you to hit the over. My gut tells me this one is a coinflip so if you like to really gamble this one is for you. If I had to pick, I’d go over against SJS. Bengal Tigerheart (BAL) Pancakes (6.5) OVER – Another defensive line that I have no real confidence in. Bengal has gotten 9, 9, 18, 6, and 12 pancakes in the last five games. He averages 10.8 a game, so the over seems like the play. With 97 Strength he can take on anybody and knock them down clearly. I’m not sure what goes on in the sim to make a pancake happen but I’m going OVER on this one. Although I don’t have enough confidence to actually bet on this one. James Jayne Jay-Jaymison (AZ) Punts inside the 20 (2.5) ??? – Good luck on this one. I have no clue how to judge this and am not betting on it. Anyone that has insight on this please let me know. Only one game so far has JJJJ not hit this over, but I have no confidence in the sim to kick right. I’ve seen too much in my short time here. That’s all for this week’s props. Earlier today I spent an hour building an excel sheet to track my prop bets so I will keep you all posted on how my progress goes. If anyone wants, I can share the file with you, unfortunately I didn’t make it in an google sheet. Below is a TLR of my week 6 picks for those who hate reading like myself. Week 6: Willier Miller UNDER: $1,000,000 Howard Coward OVER: $1,000,000 Dick Grayson UNDER: $1,000,000 NCADV RAINN OVER: $1,000,000 Parlay: WM U, HC U, NR O Doubling up on the Parlay cause if I win, I want to win big. There may be some better betting strategy to hedge myself but that’s too complicated. I built up a small war chest during 2x media that I am ready to lose. I know my analysis is probably bunk but that is half the fun of gambling, so please feed into my confirmation bias. Alternatively tell me why these are trash picks. Also, curious what bets you all are making so let me know below. P.S. Here is a screenshot of what the excel sheet looks like for anyone curious.