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+---- Thread: *Week 5 Prop Recap; Week 6 Prop Bets (/showthread.php?tid=45217)
*Week 5 Prop Recap; Week 6 Prop Bets - CROney3 - 04-26-2023
Welp, it was a bit of a rude welcome back to prop betting. I’m hoping that was the worst week of the season in terms of bets. Processing the money part in the casino for these bets was an eye opener as many of us bet the over on Sconnie, so the casino get a lot of money from those bets. It also looks like I have some competition now as @Sebster posts his measly 10 word article on his bets and @Ultimatedestroye has started his own. (update, even @Chicken Lips has started their own) So I’m really going to have to dig deep (after this 2nd glass of whiskey) to make sure we can win some money together. As always, let’s start with a review of the previous week bets.
![[Image: a3kSe7V.png]](https://i.imgur.com/a3kSe7V.png)
Absolute Unit (YKW) – over 21.5 Completions; Well, fuck this. The under was sure to hit, but nooooo, they had to go to overtime where Unit got 2 completions to hit the over. This will count as a loss (because I will for sure take the W if overtime gives me the win) but the process was right on this one.
Howard Coward (AUS) – over 75.5 Rush yds; I think this was one of the easier bets that we’ll see. Austin appears to want to give Howard the majority of the carries and it’s working out. He’s doing damage on the ground and so it’s tough to go away from him. I think we’ll be seeing similar results for an upcoming prop bet….
Sconnie McSix (SJS) – under 6.5 Receptions; So much for calling this a slam dunk. I guess not even dunks are 100% completed. For some reason, 11 targets went to their 3rd string, 275 TPE, receiver. I can’t imagine everyone that lost money on this bet was because of my article. So I’m jotting this down as an anomaly.
Ray Baker (HON) – under 10.5 Points; So, I will fully admit to my fuck up on this one in my previous article. In the table I post, I said I’m taking the under, so if you used that and won, congrats. But if you were a nerd and wanted to read my thought process on this bet, you were led astray as I said I’m taking the over. It was a relatively low scoring affair for Hon as they scored 3 touchdowns and only attempted 2 field goals (where Baker made one). This is the fickleness of kicker props that it comes down to opportunities and can be hard to predict.
Pan Cakes (NYS) – over 7.5 Pancakes; Yeah I just don’t know how to predict these ones. Pan Cakes crushed the over with 11 pancakes. New York rushed 33 times and passed 36 times, so I’m guessing the volume of plays helped but I can’t discern when the pancakes happen so I’m leaning on coin flips for these types of bets. I should have known but what can ya do. Unless it looks insanely obvious, I don’t think I’ll put money down on these ones.
King Zeus (SAR) – over 8.5 PDs + Tackles; This was a skin-of-the-teeth type result but I’ll take it. I did not expect only 1 pass deflection but combined with the 8 tackles, that gets us what we needed. I didn’t include this in my parlay as I was not confident in it but I guess I should have replaced the Sconnie bet with this one. Sarasota’s defense is one of the best, and Zeus is one of the reasons why, so I’m not surprised this one hit.
Alright, on to the rookie (except 2 of the players) oriented week 6 props. I already did some surface level analysis prior to this research so I’m curious to see if that holds up.
![[Image: CJKtMc7.png]](https://i.imgur.com/CJKtMc7.png)
Willier Miller (SAR) – o/u 255.5 Pass yds; Miller is having a phenomenal rookie season, leading all QB’s in quarterback rating. He’s averaging just under 300 yards and 40 attempts per game, so Sarasota has no issues with airing it out. Where this week gets interesting is that they face Berlin, who has one of the best defenses in the league. Side note, I have no idea how Berlin is 1-4 as they have TPE at all major positions and somehow have only scored 65 points in 5 games. Anyways, this is immovable object meets unstoppable force. Baltimore is one of the pass happiest offenses and barely managed to bet over the 255 line, so because of that, I’m taking the under on this one.
Howard Coward (AUS) – o/u 65.5 Rush yds; I almost wanted to stop saying these bets are slam dunks because the sim is gonna sim, but hot damn does this feel like a slam dunk if there ever was one. Coward is the main back in this offense and since he began handling the majority of the carries, it’s been smooth sailing. That doesn’t even begin to mention how their opponent this week, Chicago, has one of the worst run defenses this season, allowing 148 yards per game. With those 2 factors, this is an easy over bet and I’m putting this in my parlay.
Dick Grayson (NOLA) – o/u 72.5 Receiving yds; Grayson, who’s not actually a rookie, has been thrust into the WR2 role for New Orleans after they traded away Mada in their fire sale. Averaging over 10 targets per game, which may surely increase with the upgraded role, on a pass happy offense due to a terrible run game, I can’t imagine Grayson won’t dink and dunk their way to the over on this one. They go against Honolulu this week, which has surprisingly had a pretty stout defense, but still allows 240 yards receiving per game. With those factors combined, I think Grayson hits the over this week. This is one where I could see the sim being the sim and the result will be under so I’m not putting money on it.
NCADV RAINN (COL) – o/u 4.5 Receptions; RAINN, the former QB turned receiver, has had about 8 targets per game this season. That’s worked out to about 5.4 receptions per game. Offenses against Cape Town, their opponent this week, have been attempting over 40 passes per game. With the volume of expected passes and the typical work that RAINN receives, I’m taking the over on this one.
John Stark VIII (OCO) – o/u 6.5 Tackles; My main man @UptownCord is having a great rookie season. You’d think the TPE for a rookie LB would matter but not so much in this offense. He’s averaging about 6 tackles a game, so this feels like a coin flip bet. They go up against San Jose this week, which is definitely more pass heavy in nature. As someone who has their tight end Penne on their roster, I’m not blind to the lack of receptions by that position, meaning most of their receptions are to the wide receivers, indicating it may be tough for Stark to hit the over. I would not be surprised if he gets the over, but I’m guessing the under on this one, which is actually a flip of what I had decided on last night.
Bengal Tigerheart (BAL) – o/u 6.5 Pancakes; I’m going to keep this one short. Tigerheart is the other player that’s not a rookie and has been CRUSHING it this season. Averaging 10 pancakes a game (with 0 sacks allowed), Bengal has been a fantasy revelation for those willing to make the waiver claim. Baltimore loves to pass, so that helps with the pancake numbers. And Yellowknife, while having a great defense and defensive line, still allow at least 1 lineman to get over 7 pancakes a game. I know I said earlier that these types of bets are coin flips and I won’t be betting on them, but I lied. This one seems like easy money and I’m taking the over.
Jayme Jayne Jay-Jaymison (AZ) – o/u 2.5 Punts inside 20; Yeah, I hate kicking props. These types all come down to opportunities and so you’re guessing gamescript. Which, even real life football but especially sim football, is a fool’s errand. That being said, JJJJ is tied for 2nd in punt attempts so far at just over 6 per game. JJJJ is also in 2nd place for punts inside the 20 at just under 3 per game, so this prop isn’t out of the realm of possibility. New York has been allowing just over 5 punts per game. I originally had guessed that JJJJ would hit the over but after looking a little bit closer, I don’t think there will be enough opportunities to get 3 punts inside the 20, so I’m guessing the under. But who fucking knows.
I am very confident in the 3 bets I’ve marked that I’m doing a 3-leg parlay on those. I’ll also put an extra bet on both the Coward and RAINN bets as I can see the sim getting screwy on the pancake prop. I’m so glad that I have some extra competition this season to keep me from resting on my (terrible) laurels. Again, don’t take this advice at all if you’re actually interested in winning money.
RE: Week 5 Prop Recap; Week 6 Prop Bets - Chicken Lips - 04-26-2023
first, but also nice picks. I think Grayson is going to be a wash. but we will see tomorrow!
RE: Week 5 Prop Recap; Week 6 Prop Bets - wizard_literal - 04-26-2023
Good advice!
RE: Week 5 Prop Recap; Week 6 Prop Bets - DREAMSLOTH - 04-26-2023
can't read, took advice
RE: Week 5 Prop Recap; Week 6 Prop Bets - CROney3 - 04-26-2023
(04-26-2023, 10:19 AM)wizard_literal Wrote: Good advice!No it's really not but it makes me money so yolo
RE: Week 5 Prop Recap; Week 6 Prop Bets - CROney3 - 04-26-2023
(04-26-2023, 10:46 AM)DREAMSLOTH Wrote: can't read, took adviceYou put your picks in before this came out, so that was probably the smart move.
RE: Week 5 Prop Recap; Week 6 Prop Bets - DREAMSLOTH - 04-26-2023
(04-26-2023, 01:36 PM)CROney3 Wrote:(04-26-2023, 10:46 AM)DREAMSLOTH Wrote: can't read, took adviceYou put your picks in before this came out, so that was probably the smart move.
if this came out before I made my picks, you can bet they would've been different
