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+---- Thread: *Week 10 Sportsbook Recap; Week 11 Analysis (/showthread.php?tid=46176)
*Week 10 Sportsbook Recap; Week 11 Analysis - CROney3 - 07-03-2023
Yuck. Just absolute Yuck. That was definitely a brutal week. Just look at the red in the table below. I have no idea what happened. Many of the props were close (some not at all) so I won’t drivel on and on about how I suck and you shouldn’t listen to me. That’s why I said don’t take my advice. I can get a great week followed by an absolute shit week. I’m usually closer to 50/50 though and week 10 was easily my worst week as a gambler. Well let’s analyze these props, shall we?
![[Image: JLNw3Hb.png]](https://i.imgur.com/JLNw3Hb.png)
Absolute Unit (YKW) – under 20.5 Passing Completions; I was right to keep my confidence level low, but only 16 completions? I figured they would be losing and need more than just 29 passes to stay in this one. Without looking at the play by play or the stream, I’m assuming Cape Town just dominated the clock and so Unit didn’t have enough chances to get to the completion mark. They only punted 3 times and attempted 2 field goals, so not a great overall day for the offense. I knew it’d be close but I guess I was wrong on which side it would be. Bummer.
Leandre Diarra (OCO) – over 84.5 Rushing Yards; Welp, this one made me look silly. I think I remember him busting out like a 47 yard run in the 1st quarter and I knew it was over at that point. Diarra ended up with 159 yards on only 15 carries. I didn’t think he’d out carry Tyler One by 7 carries but he just kept ripping off long gains. So I’ll eat the Big L on this one. Another bummer.
Sconnie McSix (BER) – under 5.5 Receptions; So they ended up passing 42 times, which you like to see on these types of props. And McSix saw 13 targets, so even getting half of those would have hit the over. But Harley Andrews was all over McSix this game and so those targets just couldn’t get converted. I’m chalking this one up to right process, wrong results. McSix saw the targets, Berlin passed a lot, but it just wasn’t in the cards this game. Watch out for the next Berlin trade.
Keanu Calhoun (SJS) – under 68.5 Receiving Yards; This was one of my favorite to hit as the yardage seemed absurdly low for someone who will be the #2 receiver at worst or #1 at best. He ended up being tied for 1st in targets and was just short at 60 yards, so definitely a bummer that he couldn’t get 1 or 2 more catches to put him over. Only 30 pass attempts for San Jose was also likely a contributing factor to the under hitting.
Bengal Tigerheart (BAL) – over 7.5 Pancakes; I wish I had put more on this one as it was the only one I got right. And Bengal crushed it this week. I don’t have much to analyze for this one, just that Tigerheart is #1 in my heart.
Joseph Reed (CHI) – under 1.5 Negative Plays; Wow, goes all season getting at least 1 negative play each game and ends up with 0 this game. Reed was able to help fund the casino quite a bit as anyone that took this prop took the over. I definitely have no idea how to analyze this one. Colorado had plenty of offensive opportunities for Reed to rack up some plays, but only ended up with 3 tackles. So, another bummer but what can you do.
Spottie O'Dopaliscious (AZ) – over 2.5 Pass Deflections; Spottie is still leading the league in pass deflections after getting 3 more against New Orleans. Arizona dominated, forcing New Orleans to not be able to lean on Crane at all. I knew it was possible to hit the over but didn’t think it was likely so I incorrectly took the under. Ugh, that’s what I get for not trusting my teammate. If there’s a running theme with these, it’s that they’re a bummer. This one included.
I felt like my process was right for most of these but man it still hurts to get almost all of them wrong. Especially coming off of a pretty good week. As George Washington once said, even if you lose some bets, there are still more to be had.
![[Image: SldTTfS.png]](https://i.imgur.com/SldTTfS.png)
Donovan Winters (AZ) – o/u 1.5 Interceptions + Fumbles; So far this season, wINTers has 8 interceptions and 6 fumbles. Unfortunately, I have no idea how to look at the fumbles for each game for Winters. Fumbles also seem pretty random so it’ll be tough to even anticipate if any will occur. What I can look at is Sarasota’s defense, which is slightly above average in terms of interceptions per game at just under 1. They are also 9th in terms of forced fumbles. Sarasota has a decent run defense and so Arizona will look to run it all over Sarasota with Nedelko. With the likely limited passing opportunities, I’m assuming Winters will only toss 1 pick and won’t fumble, so I’ll take the under on this one. My confidence level on it is right in the middle at 3.
Armor Queen (BER) – o/u 0.5 Rushing TDs; So far, Queen only has 5 touchdowns on the season, which is crazy given the amount of carries on the season. Berlin’s offense just can’t move the ball despite their high-TPE players as they are currently 12th in the league in scoring per game. Berlin goes up against San Jose this week, who has a worse run defense than pass defense in terms of yardage, so I can see Queen taking one to the house given their usage. The opportunities are definitely there to get 1, as you have to go all the way back to week 3 against Austin as the last time they didn’t allow a rushing TD. So I’ll take the over on this one, with a higher confidence in a 4.
Mandrews McHollywood (NYS) – o/u - 6.5 Receptions; McHollywood is having a fantastic season so far, averaging 6.3 receptions, 90.8 yards, and 1.0 touchdowns per game. Easily the #1 target in New York, this should be a slam dunk going up against a drowning Yellowknife team. The Wraiths are currently 12th in the league in terms of receiving yards per game and are #1 in offensive scoring per game. This leads me to believe it will be a high scoring game where New York will want to throw the ball, leading McHollywood to get fed and hit the over. Since I’m mostly going on gamescript, I’m taking the over but a low confidence level of 2.
Austin Copperheads – o/u 3.5 Sacks; Austin currently has 37 sacks as a team this season, which is 3rd in the league. Only 3 times this season has Baltimore, their opponent, allowed more than 3 sacks in a game. But, Baltimore has given up at least 3 sacks in 8 of their 10 games, so they are definitely right there for this prop to hit the over. Funny enough, Austin has only hit 4 sacks or more in 4 games this season. For those 2 combined reasons (number of games at 4+ sacks for Austin and against Baltimore), I’m taking the under, at a conservative 3 confidence level.
Orlando Doom (COL) – o/u 2.5 Punts Inside 20; So this is going to be a coinflip. Doom is below average in punting opportunities (4.8 per game) but tied for 3rd in punts inside the 20 (2.5 per game). So over half of their punts are pinned inside the 20, which is crazy. Going against New Orleans, there should be a good chance for Colorado to move the ball enough to get into range for Doom to get a few inside the 20. New Orleans allows many opportunities for punting and so I think this is an easy over. I’m taking the over at a full 5 confidence level.
Brian Duke (CHI) – o/u 6.5 Tackles; I have literally never heard of Brian Duke so this should be a fun one. Duke is averaging 6.8 tackles per game for Chicago. Duke has gotten 7 tackles or more in 6 out of their 10 games. Duke always seems to be right around the 7 mark, give or take a few, with a couple of outliers. So this one is definitely going to come down to game script. They are at Honolulu tonight, who typically run enough plays to allow multiple defenders to get over 7 tackles. I’ll take the over on this one, but not super confident at level 2.
Oh man, it can’t get much worse than last week, so I’m hoping I can nail a few of these to get me back into the green. I hope you all have a wonderful 4th of July and celebrate responsibly. Even if you don’t celebrate the 4th of July, I hope you all have an amazing time doing whatever you’re doing. Good luck to all you bettors out there and let’s make some money!
RE: Week 10 Sportsbook Recap; Week 11 Analysis - DREAMSLOTH - 07-03-2023
Thank you for the free advice again. I am using this to gamble and I hope it brings you great joy.
RE: Week 10 Sportsbook Recap; Week 11 Analysis - CROney3 - 07-03-2023
(07-03-2023, 05:21 PM)DREAMSLOTH Wrote: Thank you for the free advice again. I am using this to gamble and I hope it brings you great joy.It does not, as I cannot stand the thought of a fellow ISFL-er lose money to the casino.
RE: Week 10 Sportsbook Recap; Week 11 Analysis - DREAMSLOTH - 07-04-2023
(07-03-2023, 06:35 PM)CROney3 Wrote:(07-03-2023, 05:21 PM)DREAMSLOTH Wrote: Thank you for the free advice again. I am using this to gamble and I hope it brings you great joy.It does not, as I cannot stand the thought of a fellow ISFL-er lose money to the casino.
You lost me money
