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+---- Thread: *S42 Recap: Week 12 Edition (/showthread.php?tid=46205)
*S42 Recap: Week 12 Edition - ztarwarz - 07-06-2023
This season hasn’t had a ton of surprises in terms of team class; no prospective bottom feeder turning into a contender and no top tier team having to fight to make the playoffs…yet.
That being said, there is one team who had a 4-2 first part of the season and has now completely fallen off the pace.
Yellowknife had a share of the NSFC lead when I last covered the current season. They had the worst point differential of the 4 teams with that record in the NSFC, but they had beaten the Hawks away and both Berlin and Sarasota at home. However, the season has gone completely downhill since then. The Wraiths were unlucky to be walked off at the last second by Honolulu, and did beat the Butchers away, but every other game they've had has been a multi possession loss (not counting the last second touchdown to bring it to one possession down against Arizona), including giving up 31 straight points to the Sabercats.
Both the Second Line and the Butchers can basically be immediately glossed over. It is interesting to note that the Second Line required back to back Hail Marys to lose against playoff teams, but otherwise, these are two teams that are tanking, have made midseason moves to tank even harder, and have lost every single one of their last 6 games since I last covered them.
There are a pair of teams who had 1 win when we last checked in but have since gone 4-2. Of these two, the Yeti are much more of a mirage, or rather a scheduling quirk. The best team they've beaten over the past six weeks has been the Sabercats, and that took a walk off field goal at home to win by 3. Their other wins have been against the Second Line and the Butchers, twice. The Yeti's two opponents that are actually in playoff contention have both ran all over them, literally. Both the Fire Salamanders and the Hawks ran for over 6 yards per carry. The Sabercats are much more interesting; indeed, they could have been in the playoff hunt with one or two different results. Their only losses in the last 6 weeks have come off of last minute scores, and they've beaten the Otters both home and away, and both the Wraiths and Copperheads away, neither of which were even all that close. If either of their losses in this stretch had been wins, or if they had beaten the Second Line as they should have earlier in the season, then they'd have a shot at the playoffs right now; as is they're still 3 games back and almost definitely out of it.
The final team to cover not in playoff contention is the Otters. They have been completely unexceptional in all but one way. They have the exact same record over their most recent six games as their first six, at 2-4, have not managed to beat a better team over those six games than the Butchers, have only lost one game by a significant amount due to last second touchdowns, the only exceptional thing about this team is that they boast a positive point differential (+0.4 per game) while having a 4-8 record.
So then we get into the playoff push. There are 4 teams in each conference fighting for 3 spots, with one team having a single game lead over everyone else. This applies to both conferences, so let's start with the conference that is currently worse by one game.
The Hawks are the team in the driver's seat in the NSFC, and bring the best defense in the league and an average offense to the table. Their point differential is great at +7.1, but they have not exactly had a comfortable last six games. They've gone 4-2, but only one win against a team that mattered, at home vs Arizona, was by multiple possessions. Their other 3 wins were a blowout of the Yeti, a Hail Mary to walk off the Hahalua, and a field goal with a minute left to beat the Sailfish by a single point. The big sticking point for the Hawks, though, are their losses over this stretch. Away to the Crash and the Copperheads, the Hawks got blown out in both games by a combined 55-3 score. Their final 4 games are a pretty easy end to the year comparatively, though. They have only one away game, against a Yellowknife team that traded their best player to Baltimore midseason, and they still have a matchup vs the Butchers. Their other two home games are against Berlin and Sarasota, two playoff contenders. That being said, Baltimore does have an issue that could pop up if they fall back into the mix: their conference record is currently 5-3, technically tied for the best in the conference, but losing any of their remaining games would put them at the same mark as every other playoff contender besides the also 5-3 Sailfish. And in general, both of their remaining games against playoff contenders are likely to decide tiebreakers; a loss to the Sailfish would guarantee a worse conference record in a tie, and Berlin would win a tiebreaker via head to head. Also, if I remember correctly, the next tiebreaker after the conference record is points for and not point differential for some reason? If so that would put the Hawks 15 points behind the Crash with 4 games to go for that tiebreaker. If it is point differential, then the Hawks do currently possess the best in the conference. And all of these problems only matter if the Hawks lose a game they will be favored in anyways.
By point differential, the Sailfish are the weakest playoff contender in either conference, with a measly +0.4 per game, the exact same mark that the 4-8 Otters boast. They have a top 3 offense but a bottom 5 defense by points. Yet, they do have a 7-5 record and a 3-3 record over the last six. Their 3 losses were a close game against the Hawks and then effectively double digit losses to both the Copperheads and the Outlaws; they were down by 21 points with less than a minute to go to the Outlaws and managed a last minute touchdown, an onside kick recovery, and a Hail Mary to only lose by 7 on the scoreboard despite in all actuality losing handily. The Sailfish's 3 wins have also been not exactly impressive, with the closest thing to an actually comfortable result being the 3 point win over the Crash in Cape Town in week 12. The other two wins were a touchdown pass on 4th down to beat the Fire Salamanders by a single point, and a last second walkoff touchdown pass to beat the New Orleans Second Line at HOME, AFTER the Second Line traded away their best player. All of these results make me think the Sailfish should have a worse record than they currently do, and I would have them in prime position to miss the playoffs. However, the Sailfish are blessed with arguably the easiest schedule in the entire NSFC to close out the year. They do have a hard game in Week 16 away to Baltimore; however their other 3 games are away to the Butchers, and at home vs the Wraiths and the Yeti. This team should take a 10 win record into Week 16 and fight the Hawks for the 1st seed in the conference directly. That being said, this team has had trouble with worse teams before, so if they somehow lose to the Butchers or the Wraiths it wouldn't be the most shocking thing imaginable. The Sailfish also boast the single best conference record, and swept the Crash, and will most likely win any ties due to that.
The Crash are the lone team who were outside the playoffs looking in 6 weeks ago to currently hold a playoff spot. They also have a pretty soft schedule to close out the season, though I'd say the Sailfish have it slightly easier. It's a question of whether you'd prefer one extremely challenging game and 3 cakewalks to 2 cakewalks and 2 challenges. Over the last 6 weeks, the Crash have gone 4-2, losing to the Sailfish, and to the Copperheads in extremely zany fashion; they were down by 3 points with 5 minutes to go, put together a 7 point lead with a minute and a half to go, gave that lead up in 4 plays that took half a minute, and then threw a pick six a couple plays after that to lose the game. That being said, the Crash arguably looked the strongest of any team over these last 6 weeks; they lost to a pair of playoff contenders by a single possession, and blew out two other playoff contenders, as well as picking up a win over a below average Otters squad and forcing the Wraiths so far out of the playoff conversation that they traded Kumquat Archipelago away. The Crash currently hold the 2nd best point differential in the conference at +4.5, and as mentioned above have a very manageable end to the season. Their two away games are cakewalks against the Butchers and Yeti, and while the Silverbacks and the Fire Salamanders aren't easy opponents, they get to face both of them at home. It's very much worth mentioning that the Crash will lose any tiebreaker that involves the Sailfish, but winning in Week 16 at home would solidify a tiebreaker win over the Fire Salamanders.
Speaking of the Fire Salamanders, they are technically on the outside looking in, and if I had to pick a team of these 4 to miss the playoffs, they'd be it. Not due to quality, necessarily; their +4.3 point differential is a rounding error away from the Crash and far above the Sailfish, though they have kind of been weak over their past 6 games. They have a 3-3 record, got blown out at home by both the Silverbacks and the Crash, took a last minute drive and a missed sub 40 yarder to beat the Sabercats, and their only other wins were over the Butchers and the Yeti. They have 2 home games and 2 away games, but it's the positioning that hurts the most here: they're facing the Otters and the Wraiths at home, both very easy opponents, but those matchups are bookended by away games against the Hawks and the Crash. With 2 games in which they will be hard pressed to win still on their schedule, if I were a betting man I'd put the Salamanders down to miss the playoffs from this position. The Fire Salamanders in and of themselves aren't in a good or bad position tiebreaker-wise, they could guarantee a tiebreaker over the Hawks or lose for sure against the Crash, and they don't have the benefit of the single less conference loss that the Sailfish do. So it feels like the Fire Salamanders have the hardest path to the playoffs, though it immediately becomes far easier if they manage to win their week 13 matchup tomorrow.
Now, onto the ASFC.
Arizona has a single game advantage over its contemporaries, has 3 road games left in the season, and yet manages to have a pretty easy schedule to close it out. Over the past 6 games, this team has simultaneously looked unstoppable and like a paper tiger; losing heavily to the Silverbacks and Hawks in back to back weeks, but winning by multiple possessions (minus last minute TDs) against every other opponent, only one of which wasn't a playoff contender. Beating the Wraiths, the Sailfish, and the Hahalua handily, along with an obligatory blowout of the Second Line, has given the Outlaws quite a lead. With a 7-2 conference record, a +7.6 point differential (top in the league), with a top 5 defense and the best offense in the league, the thing that really gives this team an edge is its opponents for the final 4 games. I'd call 3 of the games extremely winnable with the first 2 being cakewalks, away to the Yeti and at home against the Otters. The final game of the season away to San Jose could be a little troublesome considering how well they've been playing recently, but even then the Sabercats really only have one amazing win since Week 1 against the Copperheads. Arizona does have one major test over the rest of the year: their week 15 matchup away to the Copperheads. However, even losing that would still have them in a very good position: all 3 of the 8-4 teams in the conference play each other, and the only one of them that could even feasibly win a tiebreaker over the Outlaws has an extremely hard schedule left. Really, even with the game against the Copperheads, Arizona arguably has the easiest schedule left of any ASFC playoff contender. I think you could probably pencil this team in for at least a share of the league lead.
The Copperheads have a +5.0 point differential, an above average offense and defense, but have the single worst conference record of any team in the playoffs right now. Over the last 6 games, they went 4-2, blowing out the Hawks and handily beating the Sailfish and Silverbacks, along with making a furious comeback vs the Crash. They've also been blown out by the Sabercats and Silverbacks, so they've had a pretty up and down last 6 weeks. Austin's schedule is basically an inverse of the Outlaws; while Arizona has an easy schedule outside of arguably its hardest possible in-conference matchup, the Copperheads start these final 4 games with what is almost a freebie at home vs the Second Line. Their final 3 games, however, include one matchup that could be a bit tricky considering prior results, away to Orange County, a home match against Arizona, and an away game to Honolulu. When the easiest matchup on paper out of those 3 is a team that earlier in the year blew out the Copperheads by 20 points in Austin, it's an extremely shaky final 3 games of the season for this playoff contender. Over this stretch, Austin could guarantee a tiebreak win over Honolulu, but the Copperheads will be unable to guarantee anything else on their own; only the Silverbacks can even possibly tie the Copperheads in conference record and overall record, and that would require the Silverbacks to win what is probably their single hardest remaining game. Otherwise, any tie will likely see the Copperheads coming out on the worse end.
Honolulu is the shakiest team by point differential in the ASFC playoff hunt, with a mere +1.1, far below the next closest Copperheads mark. Their offense and defense are both below average, they have managed to go 4-2 over the last 6 weeks, and they have had 0 impressive games during that time. Yes, 0. Their losses over this period were a game where they built a 21 point cushion in the 1st quarter against the Hawks, then took exactly 0 advantage of it as the Hawks came back and won, and getting blown out by the Outlaws at home. The kindest thing I can say about their other 4 games is that they beat the Butchers at home by a lot, as they should have. The other 3 games? Having way too much trouble with the Second Line, and then requiring back to back walkoff touchdowns against both the Wraiths and the Second Line. It took a 69 yard touchdown pass with 2 seconds left for them to beat the Second Line at HOME. As might be expected from a team with as easy of a schedule as they have had in the 2nd half thus far, they don't have an easy end to the season either. They're facing the Otters in Orange County, and the Sabercats in San Jose, two extremely doable matchups though it's possible that they could slip up. The real problem are their other two matchups: the Copperheads at home, and the Silverbacks away. Two playoff contenders, one the hottest team in the league right now, going home and away, and even the other games are unlikely to be absolute freebies with how this team has performed recently. That being said, there is one strong point this team has: It will almost definitely win the conference record tiebreaker over any other team in the ASFC; with a 6-2 record, the only team with the same conference record is the Outlaws, who will need to lose one more game than Honolulu in order to go to tiebreakers, and that game is unlikely to be their away date in Colorado. Honolulu flat out will have the advantage over the Silverbacks, as the worst they can do is split the season series, and as long as they beat the Copperheads they will have the conference record advantage there too.
Finally, the Silverbacks have gone on an absolute tear over the last 6 weeks. They now have the 2nd best point differential in the entire league at +7.3, the 2nd best offense, the 2nd best defense, and have went 5-1. They lost their first game of this stretch by 10 points away to Austin, but since then they haven't really been challenged, and it's not like their schedule over this stretch was easy. Home wins over Arizona, Austin, and Yellowknife, along with road wins over Berlin and Orange County put this team in what would be prime position to take the ASFC crown. There's just one problem; their first 6 game stretch was kind of easy and they did not take full advantage. That, along with a tougher than average cross conference matchup spread, means that this team splits the difference between easy and hard games. Granted, their easy games are arguably the easiest pair of games any ASFC team will have over the final month of the season. Playing the Sabercats and the Second Line should be pretty easy, even with the Sabercats' resurgent strength recently. Unfortunately for the Silverbacks, they have a pair of tough ones. First, they will have to go away to the Crash in Week 14. Then, their season finale will be a home game against the Hahalua. If they lose, they'll for sure lose any tiebreak with the Hahalua. Otherwise, this Silverbacks team is arguably the worst off in terms of tiebreakers: they have the same 4 losses as the Copperheads currently do, and no matter what, the Silverbacks will be unable to win a tiebreak over any conference opponent via head to head matchup. As such, they're guaranteed to be on the losing end of a tie in almost every circumstance.
So overall, what do I expect?
My predictions at this point that I'm most confident in are definitely on the NSFC side of the bracket: Hawks, Sailfish, Crash, and Fire Salamanders in that order. It feels like more than a little luck has allowed the Sailfish to sneak into the playoffs, but I think they're there to stay with how easy that end of the season run up is.
About the only thing I'm even the slightest bit confident in is that Arizona has by far the easiest shot to get the 1st seed in the ASFC; they'd need to lose 2 games, or lose 1 and have the Hahalua go undefeated, for them to slip out of that spot, and I don't think that's happening, especially with only a single game that they should have a significant chance to lose. The Hahalua stick out to me as the worst performing team of the 4 ASFC contenders so far this season, and as such I'd probably pick them to miss out on the playoffs entirely, and I think the Silverbacks are most likely to get the 2nd spot this season due to them having the point differential/point for tiebreaker that I believe comes after the conference record tiebreaker.