*Week 13 Sportsbook Recap; Week 15 Analysis - Printable Version +- International Simulation Football League (https://forums.sim-football.com) +-- Forum: Community (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=5) +--- Forum: Media (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=37) +---- Forum: Graded Articles (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=38) +---- Thread: *Week 13 Sportsbook Recap; Week 15 Analysis (/showthread.php?tid=46303)

*Week 13 Sportsbook Recap; Week 15 Analysis - CROney3 - 07-12-2023 Well well well, what do we have here? I almost had a perfect week in the sportsbook, only for it to be ruined by OCO, which they like to ruin many things, so not surprised there. But this goes to show that the right bets can make you a ton of money, so I’m happy to have finally cracked the 100 million mark! I missed the week 14 article since I was out of town and the sportsbook dropped late. So I’ll give a quick recap of week 13 and look at week 15. Painted Penguin (CHI) – over 276.5 Passing Yards; Nailed the gamescript even with a win out of Chicago. Just a high scoring game and that always plays well for the over bets. Great game and I’m happy to have included it in my parlay. Orange County - over 114.5 Rushing Yards; 4 rushes for 12 yards. That was the rushing total for their statue quarterback, Adrian St. Christmas. And that was the difference between hitting the over vs getting my under correct. So frustrating, but I figured it would be a close one. I didn’t expect 34 rush attempts so it is what it is. I didn’t bet a lot as I wasn’t confident so I’m more bummed about missing the perfect week. Erwin Kemp (COL) – over 4.5 Receptions; Arizona continued to let multiple opposing pass catchers get over 5 catches a game. Kemp saw 10 targets, which was good to see. I was happy to see 6 catches as I’m always worried about some sort of fuckery involved when it’s super close, but none this time thankfully. I’ll take it! Howard Coward (AUS) – under 99.5 Scrimmage Yards; Phew, glad my confidence level paid off again. As mentioned, I usually want to take the over on any bet that involves going against New Orleans, but I didn’t like the splitting of work between Coward and Newman. And it paid off as Newman had 103 total yards to Coward’s 84. For sim purposes, the 2 headed attack is great. For gambling? Not so much. So I’ll take the big W on this one. Dane Johnson Jr (SAR) – over 7.5 Pancakes; Didn’t need to analyze this one much. Johnson ended with 11 pancakes so you love to see it. Dane continues his pancake domination in the league. Simple as that. Fat Jack (NYS) – under 3.5 Tackles; Yep, San Jose passed a ton (47 attempts) and only ran 14 times, so Fat Jack just didn’t have the opportunities to hit the over. Still got 3 tackles, so more rushing could have easily let him hit the over. But again, as a coinflip bet, I’ll take the win. Jake Williams (BAL) – over 1.5 Pass Deflections; So the gamescript was fairly dead on, as Berlin was playing from behind going into the 4th quarter so they ended up with 39 pass attempts. With Chapman covering McSix, Jake got enough opportunities while covering Dangle to get the 2 needed to hit the over. You love to see it. :pewpew: We did it! Alright, on to week 15. And I’ll fully admit I gambled on week 14 without doing any analysis whatsoever and pretty sure I got rocked. Went 0/7 and lost 17 million, so I’m back under the 100 million mark. Damn. Welp, only one way to make that money back. Adrian St. Christmas (OCO) – o/u 33.5 Passing Attempts; St. Christmas is averaging just under 35 pass attempts per game, which is 11th in the league. I know Orange County likes to run, but being on the road against a good Berlin team, game script screams to me that they will need to pass more than usual. I’m taking the over but I don’t feel great about it so I’ll be using a confidence level of 2 for this bet. Frank Dux (CHI) – o/u 79.5 Rushing Yards; Dux is currently averaging 83 yards a game, good for 6th in the league. Despite Chicago’s abysmal record, it’s nice to see them still using the run game to try to control the clock. With this game being at home and against Sarasota, who is allowing about 100 yards rushing per game, I’m going to take the over with a level 4 confidence level. Louis Blondin (AZ) – o/u 65.5 Receiving Yards; Blondin is Arizona’s leading receiver in both catches and yards. However, Arizona likes to spread the ball out when they do pass (but they definitely prefer to run it with Nedelko). They also go against Austin this week, who is better against the pass in terms of yardage allowed. So that makes me think that Arizona will lean on the run even more, so it’ll likely take a Blondin bomb to hit the over. This is such a low number though that I don’t have a ton of confidence in it, so I’ll take the under with a confidence level of 2. Solace Avenger (HON) – o/u 6.5 Tackles; After a couple games of trying to figure out where to play Solace, I’m pretty sure Hon has figured it out. Solace has seen 7+ tackles in the last 5 games, usually hanging around 9-12. This should be a slug em out type game against San Jose so I’m going with a confidence level of 5 on this one. Orlando Doom (COL) – o/u 5.5 Punt Attempts; Doom is averaging less than 5 punts a game, which is surprising given Colorado’s offense. Last time they played Cape Town, which was on the road, they only punted 3 times. In games they’ve won, Doom doesn’t punt as much. In games they’ve lost, it seems like it’s at least 6 or 7 punts per game. I think Cape Town wins this one, so I’m taking the over with a low confidence level of 1 for this coinflip bet. Baltimore Hawks; o/u 24.5 Points Scored; They scored 30 points last time they played against Yellowknife but that was at home. Now Baltimore is going on the road to Canada. They are only averaging 25.7 points per game. A little tidbit from Tuba Deus this morning said his sim showed Baltimore only hitting the over 30% of the time (albeit they may change up strategies). But with their already low average per game, I’m taking the under with a confidence level of 3. NOLA – o/u 84.5 Rushing Yards; Kyle Crane has all but 6 rushing yards for New Orleans this season. So it’s pretty much on his shoulders to hit this prop. Crane is having a fantastic rookie season while averaging 79 yards per game rushing. It’ll be exciting to watch Crane grow with this team as they are more often than not playing from behind so the sim decides to pass more. But once their young defense gets built up, watch out. That being said, going against New York this week, who is fighting for a playoff spot, is going to make it tough for New Orleans to hit the over on this one. Last time they played, they had 71 yards rushing. With that, I’m taking the under on this one with a confidence level of 4. Alright, let’s get back to making some money! The season is almost over so get your gambling in while you still can. I could use another big week of wins to make up for my ill-informed week 14 gambles. Good luck to everyone!