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*Gambling Guide to the NSFL - Printable Version

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*Gambling Guide to the NSFL - iamslm22 - 09-17-2017

Hello everyone! Welcome to a gambler's guide on the NSFL. Thanks to @JuOSu and her awesome ELO rating system we now have spreads for games in the NSFL. That means although we do not have actual gambling in the NSFL by the spread yet, we can pretend! I hope to do an article like this about once a week and preview the games, and go through what actual games I would bet on if there was an actual casino. In this article specifically since this is week 1, I'm going to explain some common gambling bets that I will do. These will include parlays and teasers, and again I'm going to explain all of that on here. I have noticed that some people are confused with the spreads as well, and how to bet them, so I am going to go through on here what it means. ONE OTHER THING that I find very important. I did NOT do any test sims before making these bets. You could obviously run sims and find the exact percentages and make bets based on that. I don't think that's fun so I'm gonna do this based off of what I think is gonna happen, not based off of test sims.

So first things first. The spreads for the games are as follows :
YKW @ BAL (-4.5)
LVL @ COL (-11.5)
SJS @ ARI (-14.5)
PHI @ OCO (-9.5)

So lets start with an explanation on this. The Otters are 9.5 favorites over the Liberty. That means if you were to bet on the Otters by the spread the Otters would have to win by 10 or more points for you to make up your bet. That is because the Otters are considered the better team AND the Otters are at home. (quick FYI, in the NFL home point advantage is worth about 3-4 points in these spreads. That means in a neutral field the Otters would be about 6 points better than the liberty. Throughout this season, I would guess we have about 80% of the games where the home team is favored (some Arizona, Colorado and Las Vegas games are my guess for Road favorites).

Now, in real life you can choose two different kinds of bets: the spread and the money line. The spread was already spoken about above. Money line is just picking the team you want to win, and getting paid based off of the odds. Sounds simple enough right? BUT in most cases the money line is only worth it if you think an underdog can win or you put into a parlay (which I will explain later). Now you might be wondering why I'm bringing up money lines because there are no money lines here. Well using a calculator you can use spreads to reasonably guess what the money lines would be IRL. So using that I'll give the money lines and then explain it.

YKW +190 @ BAL -240
LVL +700 @ COL -1200
SJS +1750 @ ARI -1600
PHI +400 @ OCO -560

Now first things first I will explain what this means. All money lines are based off $100 amounts. Minus means the team is favored and you have to pay more money to get your money back. Plus means the team is the underdog and you get back that much money if bet 100. So if you want to bet on the Hawks, you have to bet risk 240 dollars to win 100 in profit. If you want to on the Wraiths, you can risk 100 dollars to win 190 in profit. Some of you may be wondering why the numbers are so different, that is because of what's known as the "vig." Basically casinos want to make money so the odds in these situations are never even on each side. (in fact when you bet on the spread you usually have to bet 110 to win 100).

The other two kinds of bets there are, are parlays and teasers. We'll start easy with parlays. Parlays are you just betting multiple things will happen. Lets say you bet on three games in a parlay, all three have to win for you to win. The benefit of that is that you get WAY better odds. So in the NSFL the home teams win very often and upsets are pretty rare. Lets say you were feeling bold and wanted to do a four team parlay with all the home teams. The home teams are such big favorites that you would not get your full 100 dollars. If you bet $100 on a four team parlay you would only win $92.18 in profit.

Now teasers can get a little trickier. Basically the idea of a teaser is that you put multiple teams into a bet, and you get better odds on the spread. So you can move the spreads by a certain number of points. Instead of going into depth in here, writing teasers and odds in my own words, I'll link the wikipedia article here. I'm not gonna try to reword in my own words or anything, that's too complicated.

Now that I have explained what these best are I'm gonna get into my three favorite bets of the week. Before I get onto this weeks picks if you have ANY questions at all about what I explained please feel free to comment or message me. I think football gambling (even if you're not betting actual money) is a ton of fun. And it's interesting to do these fake bets to see how you would do. Also obviously this is fake money, but I'm going to keep track of how I'm doing and make my bets.

First bet - $100 on the Legion money line to win $700. Now do I think the Legion are going to win this game? Probably not. Should the Legion be +700? ABSOLUTELY NOT. The Yeti are in FULL ON rebuilding mode, trading away a ton of their talented players, and will be starting with an inactive at Quarterback. In NO circumstances should the Yeti be favored by so much. Now is betting Josh Bercovici on the road a good decision? I have no idea, but he ended his hold out, his offensive line looks better this year, and I believe the Legion will be better than they were last year. Yes losing their star DT will hurt, but I think the Legion could win this game, and the odds are amazing.

Second bet - $110 on the Liberty +9.5 to win $100. The Liberty are much improved this year, and many are expecting them to make the playoffs. I don't necessarily believe the Liberty are going to win this game, but I think they'll be within a score. Both teams were 0-4 in the preseason, but I don't know if that will prove to have any meaning. I'm not super confident in this bet, but I'll take this bet here out of the other choices.

Third bet (big bet of the week) - $220 on the Outlaws - 14.5 to win $200. This is the bet I am most confident in. each week I will end on my big bet of the week, which in this case is the Outlaws spread against San Jose. The last time the Saber Cats came to Arizona the Outlaws won by over 60 and King Bronko threw for 6 TDs. The Outlaws blow people out. They do not keep games close, and I am VERY confident that the Outlaws will win this game by over two scores.

So there you have it. Those are my three bets I would make this week. A total of $420 on the line for this week. Please everyone let me know your thoughts!

1288

GRADED

*Gambling Guide to the NSFL - Archon - 09-17-2017

Awesome guide! Are you going to take bets based on your lines?

*Gambling Guide to the NSFL - iamslm22 - 09-17-2017

(09-17-2017, 08:11 PM)Archon Wrote:Awesome guide! Are you going to take bets based on your lines?

Well I didn't make the lines, @JuOSu did. That's why I think the lines on some of these are a tad off. But if someone was interested I would consider setting it up and setting lines. With the vig, I think the casino would make a ton of money. I know someone had previously mentioned setting up a casino and the HO said no, but that was lord cheater @Noble, himself so who knows.

*Gambling Guide to the NSFL - Archon - 09-17-2017

(09-17-2017, 06:18 PM)iamslm22 Wrote:Well I didn't make the lines, @JuOSu did. That's why I think the lines on some of these are a tad off. But if someone was interested I would consider setting it up and setting lines. With the vig, I think the casino would make a ton of money. I know someone had previously mentioned setting up a casino and the HO said no, but that was lord cheater @Noble, himself so who knows.

What I would find interesting is if someone with deep pockets like @SimmerDownBruhh ran a casino and bankrolled your lines and you two split the vig week to week. Maybe a collaboration with @JuOSu as well to run the numbers racket in the league, some real organized crime shit.

*Gambling Guide to the NSFL - iamslm22 - 09-17-2017

(09-17-2017, 08:21 PM)Archon Wrote:What I would find interesting is if someone with deep pockets like @SimmerDownBruhh ran a casino and bankrolled your lines and you two split the vig week to week. Maybe a collaboration with @JuOSu as well to run the numbers racket in the league, some real organized crime shit.

That would be interesting. I wonder if the HO would allow it. It's an really interesting idea, and it was really fun to think about the different bets.

*Gambling Guide to the NSFL - Rindiee - 09-17-2017

Awesome write-up, glad you could combine real life bets with the NSFL! Good work guys!

*Gambling Guide to the NSFL - JuOSu - 09-18-2017

Really cool article, thanks for the shoutout. I like the money line, I didn't even think of that. Very cool! It would definitely be cool to have a gambling portion where people could gamble properly. I know there was some people who didn't like spreads being used instead of regular predictions. Could go back to regular for the PT and then do spreads and money line for gambling beyond that.

Cool article!

*Gambling Guide to the NSFL - 37thchamber - 09-18-2017

(09-18-2017, 02:53 AM)iamslm22 Wrote:That would be interesting. I wonder if the HO would allow it.
Well... if I offered a bet on the Wraiths-Hawks spread to @Archon now, say... Hawks -3.5, loser pays 100k... if he accepted the bet, that wouldn't violate any rules about user bets, would it?


(and tbh, even if this started up and the HO shut it down, they can't punish you if you haven't actually broken any rules, and the whole thing would be good article bait, lol)

*Gambling Guide to the NSFL - iamslm22 - 09-18-2017

(09-18-2017, 04:35 AM)37thchamber Wrote:Well... if I offered a bet on the Wraiths-Hawks spread to @Archon now, say... Hawks -3.5, loser pays 100k... if he accepted the bet, that wouldn't violate any rules about user bets, would it?


(and tbh, even if this started up and the HO shut it down, they can't punish you if you haven't actually broken any rules, and the whole thing would be good article bait, lol)

I think that would be fine, and I guess you're right. If I took a bunch of bets, I'm sure there would be nothing stopping me from doing so.

*Gambling Guide to the NSFL - 4D Chess - 09-18-2017

(09-18-2017, 02:11 AM)JuOSu Wrote:Really cool article, thanks for the shoutout. I like the money line, I didn't even think of that. Very cool! It would definitely be cool to have a gambling portion where people could gamble properly. I know there was some people who didn't like spreads being used instead of regular predictions. Could go back to regular for the PT and then do spreads and money line for gambling beyond that.

Cool article!

I like this idea! And yeah great article