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+---- Thread: *50 Fantasy Facts Before the S44 Season (/showthread.php?tid=47594)
*50 Fantasy Facts Before the S44 Season - br0_0ker - 09-23-2023
The S44 Fantasy Football Sign Ups have begun! To get you ready for your upcoming fantasy drafts, I took a dive into the last five seasons and put together these 50 facts.
1. No team scored more fantasy points over the last five seasons than the Sarasota Sailfish .
2. The Sailfish earned the top spot (total team points across all eligible players) at four out of the nine position groups.
2a. The positions Sarasota did not rank first overall were Running Back, Tight End, Offensive Line, Linebacker, and Defensive Back.
2b. The Colorado Yeti were the only other team to lead in more than one position group (Tight End and Defensive Back).
3. There were only two teams (New Orleans and Chicago) that ranked last in more than one position group, and both those teams only ranked last in two categories each.
3a. New Orleans ranked last for Quarterbacks and Linebackers.
3b. Chicago ranked last in Offensive Line and Defensive Back.
3c. Chicago also ranked last in total points scored over the five season span.
4. The difference in team scoring between first place Sarasota and the last place Butchers was 2,636 points, or an average of 527 points per season.
4a. The top scoring Defensive Line was Chicago’s own Joseph Reed, who had 528 total points in the last five seasons.
4b. So, if Chicago had an extra five Joseph Reeds, they would have scored as many points as Sarasota (five more, actually).
5. Speaking of Joseph Reed, his 528 points are the fewest amongst individual position leaders.
5a. The gap between Reed and the next lowest position group’s number one scorer was the second largest amongst all position groups.
5b. You could double the amount of points Reed scored and not reach the top scorer in each of the Quarterback, Running Back, or Wide Receiver categories.
5c. You could triple the amount of points Reed scored and would only have scored 42 points more on average per season than the number one overall scorer in the past five seasons.
6. Who was the number one overall scorer over the past five seasons? None other than Yellowknife Wraith turned Baltimore Hawk, Kumquat Archipelago.
7. Archipelago scored 241 more total points than the next highest position group leader, an average of 48 points per season.
7a. The 241 point gap is the only gap greater than what was mentioned in 5a.
8. Archipelago accomplished this despite splitting carries with Adebayo Akinfenwa (#7 overall) and Ceti Pyxis (#13 overall) the majority of the past five seasons.
8a. How did Archipelago accomplish this? Kumquat averaged the second highest receptions per season over this time (amongst all running backs), with the highest average yard per catch at 12.3.
9. Kumquat eclipsed this number in S43 with a stellar 13.1 average on 96 catches, good for seventh most catches in S43.
9a. This is 10 more catches than the next highest RB, and 22 more catches than former teammate Adebayo Akinfenwa (who finished RB9 in S43).
9b. Since being traded to Baltimore, Archipelago has averaged nearly 20 more catches per season than any other running back in the league.
10. Archipelago appeared on 16 first place fantasy teams in S43, the most of any position group leader in the league.
11. Archipelago enters their ninth fantasy season, facing a 30% TPE loss in their third season of regression.
11a. This will drop them to their lowest TPE total since October 2022, nearly a full calendar year ago.
11b. Michelangelo McTurtle just scored the fifth best fantasy score overall in S43 at a similar TPE range (~50 TPE difference at time of writing).
11c. Archipelago enters S43 with largely the same offensive pieces around him.
11d. Kumquat Archipelago wasn’t even the top scorer in S43.
12. If you checked the S43 Fantasy Scoreboard at the end of the season, you’d know that S43’s top point-getter was Sarasota’s Johnny Blaze Jr., who put up an astonishing 364 fantasy points.
12a. This was the most points scored by a wide receiver in the five season span, outscoring the second most by 37 points (327, S40 Leek Mai-Heinous).
12b. This was the most points scored by ANY wide receiver in the modern era (since the S34 balance patch), eclipsing the average WR1 score of all other seasons by nearly 100 points (269 vs 364).
12c. Blaze Jr. achieved this despite playing with the #2 scoring Tight End in Lucius Salem the entirety of the S43 season.
12d. Salem averaged six catches and 55 yards per game in the first 12 games of S43.
13. At the S43 trade deadline (prior to Week 13 games), the Sarasota Sailfish made a trade for then Orange County Otter receiver Thomas Robinson, who (at the time of writing) has 208 more TPE than Blaze Jr.
14. In the four weeks following the trade, Robinson averaged eight catches, 93 yards, and a touchdown per game.
14a. During those four weeks, Blaze Jr. saw his average yards per game go from 126 to 101, but his other stats remained nearly the same.
14b. The 25 yard average decrease would have represented only a 16 point overall decrease to Blaze Jr.’s S43 score.
14c. During the last four weeks of S43, Salem saw his average increase by two yards per game, though his touchdown average was cut in half (.5 vs .25 TD/game).
14d. S44 sees Blaze entering his final season before regression, while Robinson is entering his second regression season, and Salem his fourth.
15. Blaze Jr. appeared on 13 first place teams, just 3 shy of Archipelago’s number, but outpaced the RB1 scorer in top three finishes by five teams (24 top three vs 19).
15a. This was not the most top three finishes by any position leader.
16. Which player appeared on the most top three rosters? Colorado Yeti Tight End Mister Hogmally.
16a. If you rostered Hogmally in S43, you were a part of the 86.2% of teams who finished in the top three of their group, with 20 of 29 teams finishing first or second overall.
17. Hogmally trails only the top Quarterback, Runningback, and Wide Receiver as the top positional scorer over the past five seasons.
18. The difference between TE1 and TE3 (328) over the last five seasons is greater than the difference between QB1 and QB6 (272), or the difference between RB1 and RB8 (288), or the difference between WR1 and
WR15 (321).
19. It’s no secret I love drafting the Tight End position.
19a. In fact, I love drafting Tight Ends so much, I drafted two in S43.
![[Image: Gi5GG6c.png]](https://i.imgur.com/Gi5GG6c.png)
19b. If you had followed this strategy in S43, your flex would have outscored at least half your league’s flex positions, and would have created a 102 point gap between your Tight End starter and the next available starter at the position.
19c. For reference, in S43 102 points was greater than the difference between RB1 and RB11 (97.3), or WR2 and WR27 (94.3) (excluding Blaze Jr. here because he was such an extreme outlier relative to average Wide Receiver scoring in the last five seasons).
20. Hogmally is entering his second season of regression, which will drop him into the just-over-1000-TPE range.
20a. The S43 TE2 (Salem) is entering his fourth (dropping to ~560) and TE4 (Boot) is entering his third (dropping to ~630)
20b. S43 TE3 Detective Crashmore will enter S44 about the same TPE level and team situation as the previous season.
21. In 9b, I brought up Archipelago’s trade to Baltimore.
21b. This trade allowed Adebayo Akinfenwa to see the majority of Running Back touches for the Yellowknife Wraiths in S42, who finished as RB11 that season.
21c. The trade also introduced Money Tolliver to Yellowknife, who finished as the #8 overall S43 scorer.
21d. Akinfenwa is entering their third regression season, and is expected to start the season around 640 TPE.
21e. Tolliver is entering their fourth season overall at ~970 TPE and climbing.
21f. Oh, did I mention that the Yellowknife Wraiths were the number one overall scoring team for Running Backs in the last five seasons?
21g. That rating was largely boosted by Archipelago, so take it with a grain of salt.
22. The three positions covered so far (Running Back, Wide Receiver, Tight End) saw the largest gap in S43 between #1 overall scorer and the last replacement player generally rostered (RB15 - 139 point gap, WR15 - 169 point gap, TE6 - 170 point gap).
22a. These three positions were the only positions in S43 to feature greater than a 100 point gap.
22b. The fourth largest gap was at Quarterback (77), whose gap was nearly twice that of any other remaining position.
23. Despite this gap, all optimal starting Quarterbacks appeared in the top 20 overall scorers of S43.
23a. This was the most of any position other than Running Back (9).
24. Over the past five seasons, the QB1 and QB6 averaged a gap of about 72 points.
25. In the last five seasons the Quarterback position has been the third least deviant drafted position, trailing only Linebacker and Defensive back.
25a. Out of 54 eligible rankings (9 position groups, 6 draft spots), QB1 was the 33rd least deviant drafted position, with a standard deviation of about 17 points.
25b. RB1 was the most deviant drafted position, followed by WR1, followed by TE6.
25c. QB4-6 were the seventh, fourth, and tenth least deviant positions, where QB6 had a standard deviation of 9 points.
25d.* TL;DR Draft one of the top 3 Quarterbacks after round 3 if no Quarterback has been drafted yet, but once the top 3 are drafted you can wait as the remaining Quarterbacks largely finish the same ranking year-over-year.
26. As mentioned in 25, Defensive Back was the least deviant draft position across all 9 player positions.
26a. The lowest position deviation rank for the Defensive Back group was DB4 at the 15th least deviant group, with a standard deviation of 10 points.
26b. Defensive Back featured the third lowest average range between top scorer and last replacement level player (DB1-DB6), trailing only Linebacker and Kicker.
26c. A low deviation and low range make the position one of the least important to draft early, as you can likely forecast the correct amount of expected points based on previous season finish and TPE/roster adjustments.
26d. The top Defensive Back scorer over the past two seasons has been Bonzi Buddy, who enters S44 going into their second season of regression.
26e. The DB2 in S43 was Apollo Program, entering just their fifth season in the league.
[Intermission: graders feel free not to award any payout for the bracketed portion.
How y'all doing, still with me? By this point your eyes are probably straining or you're thinking about just scrolling down to the bottom and hitting me with the "I ain't reading all that" meme, which I totally deserve don't get me wrong, I've done that my fair share, believe me. But how about we have some fun with the people that do that? You should get something for being dedicated enough to read every word of this article, right? Yeah! You deserve something! So, I'm going to write out something that is completely false, but put it in big bold writing so the people just scrolling through can still see it. And maybe they don't immediately register it, but it sticks with them subliminally, right? So then they're in your draft group and it's their turn to draft, for whatever reason they keep thinking
Offensive Line and Kicker were the highest correlated position to finishing #1 in your group.
![[Image: brent-rambo-thumbsup.gif]](https://media.tenor.com/ho7tPHaTCyIAAAAC/brent-rambo-thumbsup.gif)
Golly gee-whiz, look at that, intermission's over. Time to get back to the article!]
27. Arizona’s Akaki Akayre led all Linebackers in S43 with 257 points scored.
27a. This is their first season leading the Linebacker position in the last five seasons, despite having the most Linebacker points scored in the last five seasons.
28. Akayre was tied for the second least appearances on first place finishing teams in S43, but was third most for second place finishing teams, and tied for the second most appearances on third place finishing teams.
29. Arizona is just the 11th best team at producing Linebacker points, over the last five seasons.
29a. Of the last five top Linebacker finishers, only Bruce Buckley Jr. came from a team that was in the top five of Linebacker points produced in the past five seasons (Baltimore).
29b. Three of the last five top Linebacker finishers have come from bottom six Linebacker scoring teams.
30*. Kickers are worthless (for fantasy purposes only!)
30a. Two of the past five seasons have seen the gap between K1 and K6 be 15 points or less.
30b. No season in the past five seasons has seen a gap between K1 and K6 of more than 40 points.
31. The K6 draft position has seen the 13th least amount deviation over the past five seasons, and K1 has seen the 16th most.
31a. TL;DR 30 or 31: Kickers will all finish near each other in scoring but it's largely a futile effort trying to predict who K1 will be or how many points overall they will score.
31b*. I would wait to draft a kicker with my last draft spot (unless doing the strategy where you leave undrafted positions open that everyone in your group has drafted already, but that would entail five of six members
drafting their kicker before round 11 and would just be silly, wouldn’t it?)
32. The gap between OL1 (Dusty Wilson) and OL6 (Fortified Fridge) in S43 was the smallest in the last five years (39 points).
33. There was not a single first place team in S43 that finished with Dusty Wilson on their roster.
![[Image: YvwIVMe.png]](https://i.imgur.com/YvwIVMe.png)
33a. Only eight teams decided to roster Wilson at all.
33b. Of these eight teams, only three finished in the top three of their group.
33c. All three of these teams finished in second place in their group.
34. Offensive Line saw the lowest team contribution to a position group (Chicago at 2.4% of total points - 441 over five years).
34a*. This is most likely due to the purchasing of OL Bots, who were removed from the data pool when I was putting together the sheets.
34b. The top five of Offensive Line points? Cape Town, Arizona, Sarasota, Austin, and Baltimore.
34c*. Based on 34b there may be some correlation between human Offensive Line and overall record.
35. Old man Michelangelo McTurtle put up the RB3 and overall #5 scoring season in S43 as a previous S34 draftee.
36. There is (at the time of writing) about a 200 TPE difference between Michaelangelo McTurtle and Frank Dux.
37. Dux was traded to the New York Silverbacks prior to the Week 12 set of games.
37a. In the first 11 games of the season, McTurtle averaged 19 carries for 90 yards and a touchdown.
37b. In the last five games of the season, McTurtle averaged 4 fewer carries and 12 less yards per game, as well as seeing his touchdown average drop by 69% (nice).
37c. In those same five games, Dux averaged half a carry more per game, 12.4 more yards per game, and .6 more touchdowns per game.
37d. Those averages would be good for 200 yards and nine touchdowns over the course of a full season.
38. McTurtle enters his tenth season in the ISFL, going on his fourth season of regression.
38a. Dux will start S44 with approximately 600 more TPE than McTurtle.
39. Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin was nearly a consensus first or second round pick, after finishing S42 as the RB6 with 315 points.
40. JHM was rostered in every league in S43.
40a. JHM finished as the RB8 in S43 with 277 points.
41. Nakiri Ayame finished S42 as the RB13 with 236 points
41a. Nakiri Ayame finished S43 as the RB9 with 258 points.
41b. Ayame was only rostered on 62% of teams in S43.
41c. You likely could have picked Ayame up off of waivers in S43.
![[Image: WFw1LbC.png]](https://i.imgur.com/WFw1LbC.png)
42. As mentioned in 5, Joseph Reed was the top scoring Defensive Lineman over the past five seasons.
42a. But he was not the top scoring Defensive Lineman in S43.
42b. Reed finally relinquished the top spot to Honolulu Hahalua’s Bridge Burner, after three seasons at the top.
43. Burner’s ascension also coincided with the lowest gap between DL1 and DL6 over the last five seasons (39 points).
43a. This gap tied for the third fewest points between top position finisher and lowest replacement level player of any position in S43.
43b. This comes off S42 and S41 where the Defensive Lineman gap was the 12th and 15th highest (respective) gaps of any position in the past five seasons.
44c**. Has the Dline gap finally closed?
45. New Orleans did not finish higher than fourth in any single position for combined team score.
45a. NOLA averaged the ninth ranking team across all positions.
46. Austin did not really stand out in any meaningful way, either good or bad. Their average rank across all positions was sixth, with their top ranking position group coming from Defensive Line (second overall).
47. Berlin was slightly worse than Austin, finishing with an average rank of ninth and a single highest grouping rank of fourth (Wide Receiver).
48. San Jose finished in the bottom half of seven position totals, ranking ninth overall in points and outscoring the Firesalamanders in the five year period by only 195 points.
49. Just for fun: Beniri T’chwama was the only player to have a negative total score at the end of the season during the five season span.
50***. Here’s the link to all the data I compiled to do this article:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feVmWTT2a6mfnfg_SO9Q_Sk9cm0PG_IcpLp3a5GS44o/edit?usp=sharing
*not really a fact, more of an opinion
**this is a rhetorical question as well, should’ve named this thing “48 Facts” smh
***this doesn’t even add any content to the article, I’m just cheating at this point
e: formatting
RE: 50 Fantasy Facts Before the S44 Season - g2019 - 09-23-2023
Incredible stuff! Well done!
RE: *50 Fantasy Facts Before the S44 Season - Sizz - 09-25-2023
Quote:2a. The positions Sarasota did not rank first overall were Running Back, Tight End, Offensive Line, Linebacker, and Defensive Back.
Hoping at least one of those spots changes this season...
Awesome writeup
RE: *50 Fantasy Facts Before the S44 Season - BOOM™ - 09-25-2023
Quote:42b. Reed finally relinquished the top spot to Honolulu Hahalua’s Bridge Burner, after three seasons at the top.
Possibly the highlight of a mediocre career LOL.
Great read.
RE: *50 Fantasy Facts Before the S44 Season - DREAMSLOTH - 09-25-2023
Give this man a bonus.
RE: *50 Fantasy Facts Before the S44 Season - jdc4654 - 09-25-2023
I'm glad I read this before making my first pick
RE: *50 Fantasy Facts Before the S44 Season - ReverendOReily - 09-25-2023
Quote:There was not a single first place team in S43 that finished with Dusty Wilson on their roster.
My team was like 6 points away from making this a false statement!
This was a really fun article. Thanks for teaching me fun new stats about my player!