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*Dominator Power Rankings - ISFL - Printable Version

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*Dominator Power Rankings - ISFL - caleb.grim - 10-28-2023

Time for another edition of Dominator Power Rankings! Only three games left in the ISFL regular season. So part of the exercise today will be looking at each team's playoff chances.

If you want to know more about how Dominator Power Rankings are calculated, please see the original post here.

Previous Editions:

ISFL: Week 4, Week 7, Week 10

DSFL: Week 4, Week 7, Week 10


Onto the rankings!
ISFL Dominator Power Rankings - Week 13

14. NOLA New Orleans Secondline NOLA (3-10)
Last Edition Rank: 14th (-8.523)
Dominator Score: -8.361
% of Time Winning: 23.4%
% of Time Losing: 60.9%

Remaining Games on the Schedule: Orange County, San Jose, at Berlin

The Secondline have been out of the playoff hunt for a little while. The remaining games are really for bragging rights and a chance to play spoiler. However, none of the remaining teams on deck are world beaters so it's conceivable that New Orleans could come up with another victory or two.

Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 3-13 (7th in the ASFC)
13. COL Colorado Yeti COL (4-9)
Last Edition Rank: 11th (-5.025)
Dominator Score: -5.612
% of Time Winning: 29.8%
% of Time Losing: 53.9%

Remaining Games on the Schedule: Yellowknife, at Berlin, at Sarasota

The Yeti are technically still alive in the playoff hunt even after getting blown out in consecutive games to the top teams in the division. Three games back from a playoff spot with three games to go, the Yeti need to win out as well as seeing Sarasota lose all three games and both Yellowknife and Berlin losing at least two of the next three. And then at that point, hope the tiebreakers go their way. One thing to their advantage though is that all three teams directly ahead of them will be facing Colorado over the final week of the season. While the team is currently trending in the wrong direction, the table is set for the improbable if they can turn it around.

Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 4-12 (6th in the NSFC)
12. SJS San Jose SaberCats SJS (2-11)
Last Edition Rank: 12th (-5.130)
Dominator Score: -5.076
% of Time Winning: 28.5%
% of Time Losing: 55.9%

Remaining Games on the Schedule: at Baltimore, at New Orleans, New York

The SaberCats are eliminated from playoff contention having lost 9 games in a row and currently owning the worst record in the ISFL. San Jose doesn't get blown out though as they lead the league in amount of time spent in a one score game (73.1%). While they play both of last year's conference champions (and losses are expected), the game with the Secondline looms large in terms of draft position.

Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 3-13 (6th in the ASFC)
11. CHI Chicago Butchers CHI (3-10)
Last Edition Rank: 13th (-6.179)
Dominator Score: -5.008
% of Time Winning: 32.2%
% of Time Losing: 55.6%

Remaining Games on the Schedule: Cape Town, Honolulu, at Baltimore

With all three remaining games against Ultimus contenders, the Butchers could play spoiler to a team's first round bye chances even if they have no shot to make the playoffs. However, the first overall pick is still in play as well. With a loss to New Orleans but a win against San Jose, it would possibly come down to tiebreakers to determine draft order.

Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 3-13 (7th in the NSFC)
10. BER Berlin Fire Salamanders BER (6-7)
Last Edition Rank: 8th (-0.144)
Dominator Score: -3.719
% of Time Winning: 32.2%
% of Time Losing: 52.3%

Remaining Games on the Schedule: at Sarasota, Colorado, New Orleans

Currently sitting in 4th place, the Fire Salamanders control their own destiny in making the playoffs. Winning out would guarantee Berlin the 3rd seed as they would own the tiebreaker with Sarasota. Having beat Sarasota once already (and Yellowknife twice), the Fire Salamanders have the inside track of the three playoff hopefuls. No game looms bigger on the schedule though than Monday's clash with the Sailfish.

Season Predictions Based on Dominator Rankings: 8-8 (4th in the NSFC)
9. OCO Orange County Otters OCO (5-8)
Last Edition Rank: 10th (-4.268)
Dominator Score: -1.484
% of Time Winning: 36.3%
% of Time Losing: 46.9%

Remaining Games on the Schedule: at New Orleans, New York, Arizona

Sitting at 5th place in a very competitive conference, the Otters have been officially eliminated from playoff contention. While three games back of New York, the Silverbacks already have beaten the Otters once and own a four game lead in conference record tiebreakers. So the Otters are in the spoiler role. With games against New York and Arizona, the likelihood is that only one of those two make the playoffs. The Otters could end up help deciding which.

Season Predictions Based on Dominator Rankings: 6-10 (5th in the ASFC)
8. YKW Yellowknife Wraiths YKW (6-7)
Last Edition Rank: 7th (0.541)
Dominator Score: -0.729
% of Time Winning: 41.7%
% of Time Losing: 42.2%

Remaining Games on the Schedule: at Colorado, Baltimore, at Cape Town

The Wraiths are right in the middle of the race for the 3rd seed in the NSFC but will need some help to get there. Having already lost to both Sarasota and Berlin (twice) and owning the worst conference record of the three, the Wraiths will more than likely need to end up with more wins than either Sarasota or Berlin to make the playoffs. That means winning at least two games and seeing both Sarasota and Berlin implode. Maybe possible but not probable.

Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 7-9 (5th in the NSFC)
7. ARI Arizona Outlaws ARI (7-6)
Last Edition Rank: 6th (1.405)
Dominator Score: -0.229
% of Time Winning: 38.0%
% of Time Losing: 39.7%

Remaining Games on the Schedule: Honolulu, at Austin, at Orange County

The Outlaws are currently sitting in 4th place and have an uphill climb to make the playoffs. Even if they win out, they would need some help. Either New York losing multiple games or Austin losing another game in addition to their game against the Outlaws (Arizona would hold the tiebreaker in this case). Is Arizona's reign of dominance ending?

Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 8-8 (4th in the ASFC)
6. SAR Sarasota Sailfish SAR (7-6)
Last Edition Rank: 9th (-1.604)
Dominator Score: 0.145
% of Time Winning: 37.6%
% of Time Losing: 41.8%

Remaining Games on the Schedule: Berlin, at Cape Town, Colorado

After a slow start to the season, the Sailfish now control their own playoff destiny. With two wins over Baltimore, Sarasota even has an outside chance at the #2 seed. A win over Berlin knocks the Fire Salamanders out of contention and thus the Sailfish would only need one more win or a single loss by Yellowknife. If the Sailfish lose their next game to the Fire Salamanders, all bets are off as the Fire Salamanders would hold the tiebreaker.

Season Prediction Based on Dominator Rankings: 9-7 (3rd in the NSFC)
5. NYS New York Silverbacks NYS (8-5)
Last Edition Rank: 4th (4.921)
Dominator Score: 3.184
% of Time Winning: 47.4%
% of Time Losing: 32.7%

Remaining Games on the Schedule: Austin, at Orange County, at San Jose

Sitting in 3rd place, the Silverbacks could finish anywhere from 1st to 4th. With two easier games to close out the season, it's hard to see the Silverbacks falling to 4th place (though stranger things have happened). Monday's game against the Copperheads could be a preview of a playoff matchup and would go a long way to figuring out exactly where the Silverbacks stand.

Season Predictions Based on Dominator Rankings: 10-6 (3rd in the ASFC)
4. CTC Cape Town Crash CTC (11-2)
Last Edition Rank: 3rd (6.348)
Dominator Score: 4.984
% of Time Winning: 49.7%
% of Time Losing: 28.2%

Remaining Games on the Schedule: at Chicago, Sarasota, Yellowknife

The Crash are sitting in first place and, if they can take care of business, should be able to secure the playoff bye. A total collapse would be needed to fall out of the top spot since they split with Baltimore during the season. Not as dominant as at the start of the season, Cape Town will look to recapture their excellent form to close out the season.

Season Predictions Based on Dominator Rankings: 14-2 (1st in the NSFC)
3. BAL Baltimore Hawks BAL (10-3)
Last Edition Rank: 5th (3.264)
Dominator Score: 6.152
% of Time Winning: 60.1%
% of Time Losing: 25.7%

Remaining Games on the Schedule: San Jose, at Yellowknife, Chicago

Having clinched a playoff spot, the only thing left to figure out is seeding for the Hawks. With either one win or one Sarasota loss, the Hawks will at least have a home playoff game. There is an outside chance to earn the #1 seed (as referenced above), but it would take the Crash losing two of their last three games and the Hawks winning out.

Season Predictions Based on Dominator Rankings: 13-3 (2nd in the NSFC)
2. HON Honolulu Hahalua HON (10-3)
Last Edition Rank: 1st (7.633)
Dominator Score: 7.749
% of Time Winning: 59.3%
% of Time Losing: 24.8%

Remaining Games on the Schedule: at Arizona, at Chicago, Austin

The Hahalua have not quite clinched a playoff spot but it would take a lot of moving parts (plus three straight losses) for them to miss the playoffs. Sitting in first place does give them the inside track at claiming a first round bye but the season finale against Austin will probably be the determining factor for playoff seeding.

Season Predictions Based on Dominator Rankings: 13-3 (1st in the ASFC)
1. AUS Austin Copperheads AUS (9-4)
Last Edition Rank: 2nd (6.761)
Dominator Score: 8.004
% of Time Winning: 63.6%
% of Time Losing: 19.3%

Remaining Games on the Schedule: at New York, Arizona, at Honolulu

The Copperheads have by far the toughest remaining schedule of any team in the ISFL. Three losses and the Copperheads are probably out of the playoffs. Three straight wins and they will have a first round bye. A more likely scenario is somewhere in between. However, this is the hottest team in the ISFL, winning 5 straight. A conference title is within their grasp.

Season Predictions Based on Dominator Rankings: 11-5 (2nd in the ASFC)

That's all for this edition of Dominator Power Rankings. Which teams do you think will make the playoffs?

RE: Dominator Power Rankings - ISFL - jollyjiggs - 10-28-2023

The dominator rankings really hate CTC lmao

RE: Dominator Power Rankings - ISFL - Frostbite - 10-28-2023

Pain

RE: Dominator Power Rankings - ISFL - GrimmCrackers - 10-28-2023

My DSFL team is on top of dominator rankings, and the ISFL team that just drafted me is on top of dominator rankings. Coincidence? I think not

RE: Dominator Power Rankings - ISFL - unconfident - 10-28-2023

Greatest media ever

RE: Dominator Power Rankings - ISFL - caleb.grim - 10-28-2023

(10-28-2023, 12:35 PM)jollyjiggs Wrote: The dominator rankings really hate CTC lmao

It really does. Though is this a weakness in the ratings? Or is CTC maybe not as good as their record would make them out to be?

RE: Dominator Power Rankings - ISFL - jollyjiggs - 10-28-2023

(10-28-2023, 03:00 PM)caleb.grim Wrote:
(10-28-2023, 12:35 PM)jollyjiggs Wrote: The dominator rankings really hate CTC lmao

It really does. Though is this a weakness in the ratings? Or is CTC maybe not as good as their record would make them out to be?
Hmm. We definitely aren't perfect in CTC, but I can't help feel like one bad loss to BAL is weighing us down a lot. I don't think it's a weakness in the ranking system either though. I guess it depends on what the goal of the dominator rankings is. For instance, CTC scores more points per game than AUS, allows less points per game than AUS, and has more wins. However, in games they win, AUS is more likely to maintain a controlling lead and they tend to not play from behind. So they are in essence more likely to dominate a game, however it's not mutually exclusive to being more likely to win a game- at least in my opinion. I also hope I don't sound like I'm coming off as an overly cocky ass haha. We also just don't dominate every game from start to finish, especially the last few weeks, which has hurt us I'm sure.

RE: Dominator Power Rankings - ISFL - caleb.grim - 10-28-2023

(10-28-2023, 03:29 PM)jollyjiggs Wrote:
(10-28-2023, 03:00 PM)caleb.grim Wrote:
(10-28-2023, 12:35 PM)jollyjiggs Wrote: The dominator rankings really hate CTC lmao

It really does. Though is this a weakness in the ratings? Or is CTC maybe not as good as their record would make them out to be?
Hmm. We definitely aren't perfect in CTC, but I can't help feel like one bad loss to BAL is weighing us down a lot. I don't think it's a weakness in the ranking system either though. I guess it depends on what the goal of the dominator rankings is. For instance, CTC scores more points per game than AUS, allows less points per game than AUS, and has more wins. However, in games they win, AUS is more likely to maintain a controlling lead and they tend to not play from behind. So they are in essence more likely to dominate a game, however it's not mutually exclusive to being more likely to win a game- at least in my opinion. I also hope I don't sound like I'm coming off as an overly cocky ass haha. We also just don't dominate every game from start to finish, especially the last few weeks, which has hurt us I'm sure.

You definitely are not coming across cocky! I’ve been thinking of ways to include a bump for actually winning games (and with that, a strength of schedule adjustment). This model doesn’t like come from behind victories. For example, Berlin has (at least) two come from behind wins. Though both of those games had a negative rating for them even though they won.

In terms of bad losses though, being down nine is rated the same as being down 40. The lowest rating is two or more scores behind. So one individual bad loss shouldn’t tank a score. At least in theory!