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*S44 Playoff Picture - IceBear32 - 10-29-2023 Here is my attempt at these final few weeks and how the playoffs could unfold. Who you need to be rooting for to get your team into the playoffs. Disclaimer that I could be completely wrong, especially when it comes to the 3 way ties. Looks like we are set up for an exciting last week with only 2 teams ( CTC & BAL ) having their playoff spots clinched.  ASFC Honolulu Hahalua  Current record: 10-3 (1 seed) Remaining schedule: @ Arizona @ Chicago Vs Austin Honolulu can clinch a playoff spot with a win in any of their last 3 games or with an Arizona loss in their last 3 weeks. With a H2H matchup in week 14 Hon can lock in their spot and put Arizona on the outside looking in with just 2 weeks left. No matter the results of the w14 matchup with Arizona and assuming they take care of business at Chicago, there is a huge week 16 matchup with Austin. This game could play a big roll in the one seed and the top team earning the bye week. Austin Copperheads  Current Record: 9-4 (2 seed) Remaining schedule: @ New York Silverbacks Vs Arizona @ Honolulu  By far the hardest of the remaining schedule and a scary history of this final week, the Copperheads week will play a big role in the seeding of the ASFC. With a current 2 game lead over Arizona they can clinch by going 2-1 in this final week, or hope for Arizona to have a couple losses. Their Head to head matchup in week 15 will either open the doors for the outlaws or give them the big edge to clinch playoffs. They will likely have torn interest in the HON @ AZ game in week 14. A HON win will give them a little breathing room for playoffs but will still remain a game or more behind for the one seed depending on their matchup in New York finishes out. New York Silverbacks  Current record: 8-5 (3 seed) Remaining schedule: Vs Austin @ Orange County Otters  @ San Jose Sabercats New York has the easiest of the top 4 ASFC schedules as we finish up these last few weeks. They only face 1 of the other top 4 teams and that is in their week 14 matchup as they host Austin. A huge game for New York as they are focused on making the playoffs and just as worried about seeding. A loss in week 14 to AUS and an Arizona win over Honolulu would have them and Arizona tied for that 3 seed heading into the last two weeks. A win would move them into second place over Austin with the same record but the head to head tiebreaker going to New York. Arizona Outlaws  Current record: 7-6 (miss playoffs) Remaining schedule: Vs Honolulu @ Austin @ Orange County Otters Arizona is currently on the outside looking in with just 3 weeks left. The Arizona 18 season playoff streak is in jeopardy. As mentioned the week 14 matchup with Honolulu is huge to set the tone for their potential comeback for a playoff spot. Arizona does not hold fate in their own hands currently but still have a chance if they have a good final few weeks. Not an easy task as they have the current 1 and 2 seeds on the schedule who will still be fighting for seeding. Don’t count out OCO in that week 16 matchup. Orange county will be trying their best to play spoiler as revenge for last season's week 16 loss to keep them out of the playoffs.   OCO - ELIMINATED. They can be involved in a 3 way tie with NY and AZ for that 3 spot. This tie would result in them being the 5 seed still based on their conference record.   SJS & NOLA  are Eliminated and looking to play spoiler. SJS will have a week 16 matchup vs NYS and Week 14 matchup vs BAL. NOLA can play spoiler to BER on week 16 who could still be fighting for the NSFC 3 seed. They face each other on week 15, where both teams will be fighting for draft position ASFC top games: Week 14 Honolulu @ Arizona Week 14 Austin @ New York Week 15 Arizona @ Austin Week 16 Austin @ Honolulu With 2 of these games happening in week 14, these matchups should paint a better picture for the final standings. Additionally keeping an eye on how the red hot Austin team finishes the season will play a huge factor in where these teams will land. I do love the possibility of 3 teams sitting at 11-5 to end the season. I believe that would result in NY as 1 seed, AUS as 2 seed, and HON as 3 seed due to tiebreakers. (Need fact checked here though) ASFC Predictions: With home field advantage playing such a big role in some of these top matchups it's hard not to weigh in favor of the home team in the close ones. HON: 2-1 final week and a 12-4 record. 1 seed & bye NYS: 3-0 final week and a 11-5 record, 2 seed HFA in divisional round AUS: 1-2 final week and a 10-6 record, 3 seed AZ: 2-1 final week and 1 a 9-7 record, miss playoffs NSFC Cape Town Crash  Current record: 11-2 (1 seed) Remaining schedule: @ Chicago Vs Sarasota Vs Yellowknife Cape Town has Clinched playoffs and at worst will receive home field advantage in the divisional round. Cape Town will need to continue to win in the battle for both the one seed in the NSFC and for potential home field advantage in the Ultimus. BAL / HON / AUS have the potential to steal that with a bad final stretch from Cape Town. Cape Town's final stretch will also play a big role for that final seed. If SAR or YKW are able to upset Cape Town that’ll give those teams a big boost to snag that final spot.  Baltimore Hawks  Current record: 10-3 (2 seed) Remaining schedule: Vs San Jose @ Yellowknife Vs Chicago Baltimore has clinched playoffs and home field advantage in the divisional round. With an easier final 3 weeks Baltimore will be sure to take care of business as they are still in the hunt for that 1 seed over Cape Town. They went 1-1 vs each other so would likely come down to conference standings which CTC has a 2 game lead in. That means CTC would have to drop 2 out of their final 3 games to overtake that 1 seed. Baltimore will more likely be focusing on who they will be playing in the divisional round and pushing for the season long expected conference championship between Cape Town and themselves.  Sarasota Sailfish  Current record: 7-6 (3 seed) Remaining schedule: Vs Berlin @ Cape Town Vs Colorado Currently sitting in that last playoff spot they have a big week 14 matchup vs Berlin. A Berlin win would have them tying SAR record wise and would move them into that 3 spot with the head to head tiebreaker going to Berlin. In week 15 they will head to Cape Town to hope to pull the upset to keep hopes alive for the playoffs. They will finish out their season at COL who always seems to give Sarasota a run for their money. Berlin Fire Salamanders  Current record: 6-7 (4 seed) Remaining schedule: @ Sarasota Vs Colorado Vs New Orleans Berlin seems to have the easiest schedule remaining of the NSFC teams which could give them the edge for that 3 seed. The week 14 matchup will either give them the inside track for the playoffs or will nearly eliminate them, giving Sarasota a 2 game lead with 2 games left. There is still a chance at an end of season tie if they are to lose week 16 but that tiebreaker would likely boil down past conference record to “Points For” where Sarasota has a 25 point advantage going into week 14. Seems like a do or die for Berlin in this Sarasota matchup. Yellowknife Wraiths  Current record: 6-7 (5 seed) Remaining schedule: @ Colorado Vs Baltimore @ Cape Town Yellowknife seems to be on the opposite end of things with one of the harder 3 weeks left. They will go to Colorado in week 14 and finish off the season facing the current 1 and 2 seeds. Berlin currently has the tiebreaker vs Yellowknife when it comes head to head. So they will need Berlin to win vs SAR in week 14 but then lose out, while also winning 2 of their last 3. So Yellowknife is not completely out of the hunt; they are a likely candidate to miss the playoffs this season. If they are to steal a win vs CTC or BAL they could play a big role in the 1-2 seeding. Colorado Yeti  Current record: 4-9 (6 seed) Remaining schedule: Vs Yellowknife @ Berlin @ Sarasota Colorado is alive but has MANY moving pieces that need to happen before they can repeat their playoff trip from last season. They would need to force a 3 way tie with BER and SAR to be able to make the playoffs. This is possible with the below situation. Need Sarasota to go 0-3 Need Yellowknife to go 0-3 Need Berlin to win week 14 vs Sarasota and lose out (1-2) Win their final 3 games vs SAR / BER / NOLA This would result in: SAR 7-9 BER 7-9 YKW 6-7 COL 7-9 In this situation COL wins the tiebreakers over SAR and BER by going 4-0 in those games. Chicago  Eliminated and chasing 1oa. They will have a lot of interest in the week 15 matchup of SJS and NOLA. Could create a 3 way tie for 1oa.   NSFC top games: Week 14 Berlin @ Sarasota This is by far the most important game leading up to the playoffs. This game can give SAR a huge advantage in these last few weeks or completely open the door for multiple teams to still have a shot. Week 15 Sarasota @ Cape Town Predictions: As mentioned in the ASFC section, it’s hard not to give the advantage to the home teams in this final stretch. This is outside the matchups of the 1 and 2 seeds who are significantly better than the rest of the conference at this point. CTC: 3-0 final week and a 14-2 record - 1 seed, bye, home field advantage if make to Ultimus  BAL: 3-0 final week and a 13-3 record - 2 seed HFA in divisional round, and HFA in Ultimus SAR: 2-1 final week and a 9-7 record - 3 seed BER: 2-1 final week and an 8-8 record - first team out YKW: 1-2 final week and a 7-9 record - 5 seed top 5/6 pick in draft COL: 0-3 final week and a 4-12 record - 6 seed and a top 4 pick in S45 draft Going to be a fun week of some dots football! RE: S44 Playoff Picture - Frostbite - 10-29-2023 Let’s just skip to s45 playoff picture