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*Tuba's S45 Fantasy Guide - TubaDeus - 11-22-2023
Welcome back to ISFL Fantasy Football season! Sure, you could also call it the start of the ISFL season, but who cares about actual simulation football when you could be playing fantasy simulation football? Of course, just like with fantasy football for the ISFL's lesser cousin, the NFL, it helps to have something of a guide to help you through your draft. The Simulation Football Writer's Guild put together a set of consensus rankings that most of you have probably already seen, if you want a more even keeled approach. These rankings below, however, will just be my rankings along with my thoughts on why I placed everyone where I did.
Without further ado, let's dive in!
Quarterbacks
1) Nova Montagne
Nova Montagne is coming off a stellar season, finishing S44 as the QB1 (albeit narrowly). There's still fierce competition for the title of fantasy QB1 going into S45, but Montagne is well positioned to defend her title. Yeah, regression took a bite out of Montagne and her top receiver, but Honolulu came prepared with two more up and coming wideouts in the chamber so the passing game shouldn't miss a beat. What gives Montagne a slight edge over the competition in my eyes is a backfield that finely balances being good enough to provide a powerful, balanced offensive attack without being so good as to detract from the passing game.
2) Preston Beatz
Beatz barely trailed Montagne last season, and he enters S45 looking like he should be right in the mix for the title of fantasy QB1 yet again. Much like Montagne, Beatz lost a bit of arm due to regression, and his top receiver lost a step as well. However, also just like Montagne, Baltimore made sure to load up on weapons to keep the passing game firing on all cylinders. Where Beatz deviates from Montagne is in Baltimore's running game. The Hawks replaced their entire backfield this offseason, handing the reins over to a pair of rookies. On the one hand, this likely means Baltimore will be even more pass heavy than last season, and volume is never a bad thing for fantasy purposes. However, any attack that becomes too one-dimensional often finds itself losing effectiveness. We'll have to wait and see which one of these effects outweighs the other, but Beatz should be a solid fantasy option regardless.
3) Willier Miller
The last of S44's elite QB crew, Miller flew a bit under the radar compared to Montagne and Beatz but was every bit as effective for fantasy purposes as he finished just 5.7 points off the lead. Sarasota's MO has long been a ridiculously pass heavy offense, and there's little reason to believe that will change this season with Miller hitting his peak alongside a pair of ~1k TPE receivers. He should once again challenge for the title of fantasy QB1.
4) Wolfie McDummy Jr
After a stellar first two seasons, Wolfie took a major step back in year three. Your guess is as good as mine as to why, but looking forward there are plenty of reasons to expect a major bounce back. McDummy himself has grown substantially and is now among the better QBs in the league. He may not have elite weapons, but his receiving corps certainly isn't anything to sneeze at either. To top it off, Colorado's running game is pretty close to nonexistent so McDummy should be airing it out more often than not. With plenty of volume and hopefully improved efficiency, McDummy should return to the realm of fantasy relevance.
5) Creg Jerrith IV
Jerrith kinda came out of nowhere last season. Who would have expected such a run heavy team to produce the overall QB4? He won't be sneaking up on anyone this season, though, as the TPE balance in Cape Town's offense is starting to tilt toward the passing game. Namely, Jerrith's receivers have seen some major upgrades over the last season. I still don't expect Cape Town to come out slinging the rock all the time, but a little more volume with continued excellent efficiency should keep Jerrith relevant for fantasy purposes.
6) Blaine Falco
In stark contrast to Jerrith, Falco stumbled last season despite appearing to be set up for success. It was in no small part due to New York's dedication to the running game, but also because Falco just didn't throw with as much efficiency as seasons past. The reliance on the run game is probably going to continue to limit Falco's volume, but with such a talented receiving corps it's difficult to believe he won't see improved efficiency.
7) Lloyd Bannings
Much like Jerrith, Bannings came out of nowhere last season as the Otters surprisingly opened up their passing game instead of relying on their running game. Despite his low TPE, Bannings successfully leaned on his solid receiving corps to finish as the QB6, with a sizable gap over QB7. Orange County enters S45 with an even better receiving corps and arguably a worse running game, but Bannings himself is still a tad lower in TPE than you'd like to see for trustworthy performance. There's some serious upside here if you're willing to gamble, just so long as you're aware of the potential downside of a lower TPE QB.
8) Adrian St Christmas
Despite Berlin's offensive woes last season, St Christmas actually did quite well for himself en route to a QB5 finish. However, Father Time comes for us all, and the Fire Salamanders have been hit harder than most. St Christmas himself is noticeably withering due to age, and so is the majority of his once stacked receiving corps. St Christmas isn't dead yet and there's some youthful talent in his receiving corps, but it's not what it once was. I expect a drop off as St Christmas enters the twilight of his career.
Running Backs
1) Danny Nedelko
There were some major moves this offseason that completely changed the running back landscape. With the dust settled, I see three backs that are all essentially tied as the RB1 in my eyes. However, given the nature of rankings I have to pick one of them to be the actual RB1, so here we are. Arizona has proven over and over that they are committed to pushing Nedelko into the Hall of Fame, going so far as to utterly waste the first half of Sherwin Blue Jr's career before shifting him to linebacker this offseason. Given their dedication to giving Nedelko every opportunity they possibly can, my money is on Nedelko seeing the best volume of the top three backs, and therefore likely producing the best fantasy season.
2) Frank Dux
With a full season to integrate into New York's offense, Dux exploded in his second season as he finished as the RB2 overall, well ahead of the rest of the competition. Going into S45, Dux no longer has to compete with Michaelangelo McTurtle after the latter retired, and Michael Touchback isn't expected to be much more than a glorified fullback. Dux should own the backfield of the Silverbacks, who just called the 3rd most run plays in the league last season. New York boasts an all around great offense that should provide ample scoring opportunities, and a similarly great defense that should give Dux positive game scripts. I would expect his S44 performance to be his floor.
3) Nakiri Ayame
With Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin departing in free agency, Ayame now has a clear path to owning the backfield of a juggernaut Cape Town offense. Given their improved receiving talent in addition to losing half of their wonderous backfield duo, I wouldn't expect quite as much rushing volume for Ayame as for Nedelko or Dux. However, Cape Town's offense should provide plenty of scoring opportunities to keep Ayame in the conversation.
4) Kyle Crane
Crane's breakout was bound to happen sooner or later. Apparently Crane decided sooner. New Orleans' workhorse back wasn't terribly efficient, but was the engine of the offense as he made an impact as both a runner and a receiver. Scoring 16 total touchdowns certainly didn't hurt either. As the Second Line's young core starts to hit its stride, expect Crane's efficiency to improve, which could be enough to truly vault Crane into the company of the elite fantasy backs.
5) Money Tolliver
On the one hand, Tolliver has a very similar setup to the big three backs this season; minimal competition for touches on an offense that is clearly geared toward running. However, whereas Arizona, New York, and Cape Town all boast some of the best offenses in the league, Yellowknife...doesn't. The Wraiths saw significant turnover on the offense as several franchise stalwarts retired to pave the way for the new crop of players. That means there's going to be a learning curve. Tolliver himself will be featured, but will Yellowknife's offense give him enough of a chance to truly shine?
6) Reginald Shrubbery
For those who haven't heard, Otters running back Leandre Diarra has put his baby weight back on to return to his old fullback role. That leaves the door wide open for Shrubbery to become the unquestioned lead back of an Orange County offense primed to really start hitting its stride. It remains to be seen if the Otters will lean more into their passing game after their unexpected shift last season, but a workhorse running back on a good offense is never a bad thing.
7) Howard Coward
Austin returns almost the same offense as last season, except for one key difference; Queen Elizabeth II is no longer under center. With low TPE rookie Jay Cue III now taking snaps, the Copperheads seem poised to lean into their duo of elite running backs. Coward was already outproducing backfield mate Jeff Newman, and now regression has vaulted Coward past Newman in TPE as well. Coward won't be a workhorse, but Austin could very well run the ball enough for him to produce elite numbers anyway.
8) Stetson David
Bean Delphine Jr still played the part of lead back last season, but that didn't stop David from showing out. Now with the balance of TPE shifted thanks to regression, David is poised to take on the role of Honolulu RB1. The Hahalua figure to pass more often than not and Delphine will still be there preventing David from taking over as a true workhorse, but David should have ample opportunity to expand on his impressive part time performance last season.
9) Kumquat Archipelago
Archipelago is old, regressed to a noticeably lower TPE than his backfield mate, and went to quite possibly the most pass heavy team in the league. So why do I have him so high? Simple. Sarasota doesn't currently have a WR3 on the roster. Kumquat went to Sarasota seeking more involvement in the passing game, and I think it's safe to say he found it. In addition to the receiving work he will undoubtedly receive (pun somewhat intended), Archipelago will also fill in an RBBC with backfield mate Ace Anderson, giving him at least some rushing production as well. I wouldn't expect Archipelago to maintain his overall RB1 status that he has so consistently achieved over the last few seasons, but don't sleep on him just because he's old.
10) Jeff Newman
As noted above for backfield mate Howard Coward, Newman is likely to be a beneficiary of a very run heavy Austin team. Honestly I found him very difficult to rank, and I don't actually think an RB10 finish is particularly realistic for him. So why do I have him here? Consider it something of an average. On the one hand, Coward always outproduced Newman despite Newman owning the edge in TPE, so it's reasonable to assume that Newman will fade hard with Coward officially taking the TPE lead. On the other hand, knowing how fluky the sim can be, perhaps Coward was simply the beneficiary of being the RB2 for some unknown reason and that Newman will get to be that beneficiary now. Newman is a gamble, but potentially well worth the risk if you can get him later as my fellow SFWG rankers seem to believe he should be.
11) Ace Anderson
The other half of Sarasota's backfield. Coming off an RB4 finish himself, Anderson now has to share the backfield with defending MVP Kumquat Archipelago. Archipelago wouldn't have signed with the Sailfish if he didn't know he would get a sizable role, which means we have to temper expectations for Anderson for now. However, there should be plenty of work to go around, especially of the receiving variety. Anderson should still be plenty viable for fantasy purposes.
12) Armor Queen
Welcome to the twilight of your career, Armor Queen. Already stumbling to an RB8 finish last season, Queen is yet another regression casualty of a Berlin offense riddled with them. What's more, the Fire Salamanders now have two other running backs for Queen to share the backfield with. Queen is clearly the top dog, but any split of the work is potentially troublesome.
13) Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin
This isn't really the ideal landing spot for the several time 1st team All Pro, but it's the hand we've been dealt. JHM steps in as the lead back in Chicago over S44 breakout star Jake Jefferson, but the Butchers will almost certainly operate with a RBBC. Does Chicago have enough juice to properly feed both of them? My money is on no, especially on a team that's coming off having the 1st overall pick. Expect major regression from both going into S45.
14) Lord Farquaads
San Jose now has two running backs in the pipeline to relieve the inactive Farquaads, but until they get fully up to speed Farquaads is still the best back on the roster. The Sabercats don't exactly boast an elite offense, and Farquaads was already suffering a bit from a split backfield en route to an RB11 finish. It's not going to get better for him as his TPE lead diminishes, even if he is still nominally the lead back.
15) Anakin Skywalker
The better of the two rookies Baltimore called up to replace their last duo. Between Skywalker's low TPE, the split backfield, and Baltimore expected to be quite pass heavy, there likely won't be much production for Skywalker. That never stopped reigning MVP Kumquat Archipelago, though, so perhaps Skywalker has some upside late.
16) Bean Delphine Jr
The roles have been reversed between Delphine and Stetson David, but that isn't necessarily a death knell for Delphine. David was quite productive in the RB2 role for Honolulu last season, so there's little reason to believe Delphine won't be as well. Certainly no longer a fantasy stud, but not dead.
17) Swamp Maiden
Colorado likes to throw the ball more often than not, they have a split backfield, and Maiden is low TPE. The upside here is quite limited. However, if the Yeti find their groove and re-emerge as one of the premier offenses in the league, perhaps Maiden could see enough scoring chances to be relevant.
18) Bertie Mannering-Phipps
The other half of the Hawks' rookie backfield. Mannering-Phipps trails Anakin Skywalker in TPE by a decent amount, but if this backfield is truly an RBBC then all BMP needs are a few touchdowns to even out the score, or perhaps even surpass his backfield mate.
Wide Receivers
1) Johnny Blaze Jr
Don't let Blaze's WR8 finish last season fool you. Blaze still ended S44 with the 4th most catches and tied for 2nd in yards. His poor finish was entirely tied to lack of touchdowns. I have no idea how the WR1 for the one of the more pass happy offenses in the league only managed 5 touchdowns, but I'm chalking that up to a fluke rather than a trend. All Blaze needed was to score touchdowns at a league average rate and he would have been WR3. With fellow Sailfish receiver Thomas Robinson fading with regression, Blaze should once again feature prominently in Sarasota's pass-centric attack. Hopefully with a few more TDs this time.
2) Rocky Moreaux
Another season, another rock solid finish for Moreaux. The Hawks' WR1 is nothing if not consistent, and there's little reason to believe a change is in store for S45. Regression is starting to hurt a bit, but Baltimore figures to pass even more than before with a rookie backfield so the volume should still be there. Expect more of the some from Moreaux.
3) Florida Man
I'd call this a changing of the guard in Honolulu, but Florida Man already was the Hahalua's leading fantasy receiver last season. Now squarely in the driver's seat as Honolulu's actual WR1, Man's production should continue to grow.
4) NCADV RAINN
I whiffed hard on RAINN last season, so what better way to make up for it than doubling down? The Yeti had a strange regression last season, but QB Wolfie McDummy Jr has grown and so has his receiving corps. Colorado should return to passing prominence, which should only mean good things for their nominal WR1. The biggest risk here is whether RAINN stays the WR1 all season. Their previous competition for Colorado's top receiving spot (TE Mister Hogmally) is regressing pretty hard at this point, but now RAINN has a serious challenger in up and coming wideout National Treasure. I personally believe RAINN will have a great bounce back season, but beware the risk.
5) Emile Charles
Sconnie McSix just set the league on fire last season before retiring. I don't see Berlin's passing volume decreasing much in S45, and those targets have to go somewhere. In the wake of McSix's retirement, Charles is the clear top target for the Fire Salamanders and should see plenty of volume to support a strong fantasy season.
6) Austin Morley
Morley has flown under the radar as a valuable fantasy asset for several seasons now. Sure, Chicago's offense has been rather anemic, but Morley has had a stranglehold on the passing game. Whatever passing production they've had has more often than not gone through his hands (quite literally, in the case of S44), and the volume alone more than makes up for any lack of touchdowns. Morley's career is starting to wind down thanks to regression, but he's still the clear WR1 for the Butchers for now.
7) Big McLarge Huge
This marks a second straight season of Huge outperforming expectations, so I think it's time to give him his due. The Otters' WR1 stands to benefit from an offense that is gradually leaning more pass heavy. There is some concern that Orange County's other receivers are good enough to steal some targets, but Huge should still be the primary receiver.
8) National Treasure
Treasure exploded last season en route to a WR3 finish. However, they didn't see that much volume. Their finish was entirely based on absurd efficiency and a ridiculous touchdown rate. It's unlikely Colorado can support another season like that, but at the same time the Yeti passing game in general figures to bounce back after a down season. Plus there's always the chance for Treasure to overtake RAINN as the WR1 in Colorado. There are a lot of unknowns for Treasure going into S45, but there's some incredible potential if the stars align.
9) Keanu Calhoun
Calhoun cruised to a WR4 finish last season while gathering the third most targets in the league. While Calhoun likely has a path to a similar number of targets in S45, the fact remains that San Jose's offense isn't particularly good, QB Josh Patterson still has a decent amount of TPE growth to go through, and Calhoun is still rather low on TPE himself. The question for Calhoun comes down to whether the volume is enough to balance out the inefficiency. The volume alone is enough to give him a safe floor, at least.
10) Shane Turnbull
Turnbull tumbled last season as his WR2 role was largely usurped by MVP Kumquat Archipelago. With Archipelago now in Sarasota, Turnbull has a clear path to a much improved season as Baltimore's unquestioned WR2. The Hawks should throw plenty to keep Turnbull fed.
11) Hank Mardukas
The New Orleans offense came out slinging last season as the Second Line led the league in pass attempts. The single greatest beneficiary of this was none other than Mardukas, who finished second in the league in targets. Mardukas was thoroughly outplayed by fellow wideout Eli Prince - which led to a lackluster fantasy performance for the former - but as Mardukas closes in on 1k TPE and the New Orleans offense in general improves Mardukas should see a sizable jump in production.
12) Octavio Perez
Perez already finished as Honolulu's 2nd best fantasy receiver last season, so his odds of improving aren't exactly looking up when he's fallen to being the Hahalua's actual WR2. That being said, Honolulu's passing game still looks like a juggernaut so Perez should see plenty of volume to support solid production. The big risk here is actually whether Perez eventually falls below the up and coming Speedy Gizmo in the pecking order.
13) Thomas Robinson
Robinson may be getting hit hard by regression, but that doesn't mean he's in bad shape for fantasy. Sarasota still is one of the most pass happy teams in the league, and Robinson has little competition for the WR2 role. There will be enough volume to support at least a decent fantasy season.
14) Benji Aguilera
On the one hand, Aguilera is the clear WR1 for Arizona and QB Donovan Winters III is one of the best QBs in the league by TPE. On the other hand, you have to go back to S38 just find a season where the Outlaws finished in the top 10 in pass attempts (they were #9). Bottom line is that the talent is there, but the volume isn't. Aguilera will have to be one of the most efficient receivers in the league to show any real upside for fantasy.
15) Matthew Mara
The Silverbacks aren't quite as bad as the Outlaws when it comes to passing volume, but they aren't far behind. What's more, New York has three very solid wideouts who are all around the same TPE, which makes it a bit difficult to determine who the WR1 will be. On the surface it looks like Mara has the inside track, but it's likely to be a very fluid situation on a low passing volume team. Unless New York comes out of the gate with guns blazing, there simply won't be enough volume to go around regardless of the talent involved.
16) Kairo Knight
Yet another run focused team wasting away receiving talent. Kairo Knight is one of the best wideouts in the league in terms of TPE, but he's got some notable competition for targets on a team that just doesn't throw all that much. Maybe the departure of star running back JHM will open the gates a bit, which would push Knight up the board in a hurry. He's hard to trust with what we've seen so far, though.
17) Delores Bickerman
I'm just repeating myself at this point. The Copperheads are looking to ease in rookie QB Jay Cue III and boast quite possibly the best RB duo in the league. Passing volume figures to be in short supply, regardless of how good Bickerman is.
18) Really Creative-Name
Finally, something different! The Fire Salamanders look to be gearing up for another high passing volume campaign after finishing last season with the second most attempts. WR1 Emile Charles will be the primary beneficiary and breakout tight end Nick Williams will certainly be involved, but there's really nothing stopping Creative-Name from claiming the WR2 role. There should be enough volume to support some upside for him.
Tight Ends
1) Detective Crashmore
Alright, maybe there's some bias showing through here, but you have to admit Crashmore is in a good spot here. Yeah, Yellowknife is probably going to be a more run focused team with a low TPE rookie playing quarterback, but Crashmore is clearly the top receiving option in a barren receiver room. Whatever the Wraiths manage to do through the air has a very good chance of going through Crashmore.
2) Nick Williams
Berlin enters S45 with an offense geared toward passing, but with little in the way of receiving weapons to work with it. Wideout Emile Charles will certainly be the top target and veteran Really Creative-Name will be involved, but there should easily be enough volume to go around to support Williams as he looks to build on his breakout S44 campaign.
3) Mister Hogmally
The end of an era. Hogmally was such a force at tight end for two reasons: the Yeti pass a ton and they really didn't have anyone notable to throw to other than Hogmally. Colorado's gameplan doesn't figure to change much, but as regression eats away at Hogmally a new generation of Yeti receivers have arrived to replace him. I don't expect Hogmally to keep up his previous pace now that he has serious competition for targets.
4) Kenny Szymborski
As I've said in various places above, I do not expect the Sabercats' offense to be particularly good. However, the lack of ability to score touchdowns does not mean lack of volume. San Jose figures to throw the ball plenty, and with only Calhoun in his way I would expect Szymborski to eat up a good chunk of those targets. Plus there are whispers of Szymborski filling in as WR3 on occasion, which certainly boosts his potential upside.
5) Bread Bowl
Bowl truly erupted out of nowhere last season, posting a solid line as a receiver but really making his mark as the best blocking TE in the league. However, defending his TE2 finish will be difficult. The Otters have a lot of mouths to feed in that passing game, which means Bowl is going to have to post another great blocking season to seriously contend in a quickly improving tight end space. He has a solid floor, but the upside is limited.
6) Ceti Pyxis
And here's the drop off. Pyxis leaves the Baltimore backfield to become their new tight end. However, Pyxis is still clearly behind the Hawks' pair of elite wideouts, which will almost certainly limit her upside. Pyxis will probably also be behind WR3 Sam Mercury in the pecking order, and might even trail the rookie RBs. Long story short, the Hawks will pass a bunch, but Pyxis is far enough down the pecking order that there may not be much left for her.
7) Lucius Salem
The longtime fantasy stalwart has one foot already in retirement at this point and a lot of competition for targets. Still, there's something to be said for Sarasota's dedication to passing the ball early and often.
8) Penger Tolliver
There are only 10 tight ends currently rostered across the league, and I think Tolliver has a better chance at relevance than Colorado's TE2 or NOLA's inactive tight end buried behind a literal sea of wide receivers.
Offensive Linemen
1) Bengal Tigerheart
Left tackle? Check. High TPE? Check. Good, high volume passing offense? Check. Mauler archetype? Check. Tigerheart has been the gold standard of offensive linemen for a few seasons now and there's little reason to expect anything to change.
2) Remi Musgrave-Smythe
Musgrave-Smythe was somewhat disappointing last season as a fantasy producer, finishing as the OL8 despite seemingly possessing all the same advantages as Bengal Tigerheart. However, while the final rank may not look so great, it's worth pointing out that RMS missed being OL3 by a scant 10 points. Between what appears to be an excellent situation and many of the higher finishing OL from last season facing regression, I expect RMS to move move up in S45.
3) Walrus Jones
The highest TPE offensive lineman in the league is now attached to an offense that is gradually getting more pass happy. It's a good situation to be in.
4) Nathan Meagher
Meagher finished S44 as the OL2 by a decent margin, but he may struggle to retain that title in S45. Berlin is still set to be pass happy as anything, but the offense is bleeding TPE from regression and Meagher himself is no exception. He should still be good enough with enough passing volume, but being lower TPE isn't going to help.
5) Fortified Fridge
Fridge himself is certainly an excellent offensive lineman, but finishing S44 tied for 3rd in the fantasy rankings was a bit of a surprise for an offensive lineman of the exceptionally run heavy Outlaws. With few signs pointing to a change in gameplan in Arizona, he'll have to continue to be elite if he wants to challenge for fantasy relevance in Arizona's run happy offense.
6) Justin Willis
There's a changing of the guard in Cape Town. Swantavius Payne is supposedly stepping aside for ascending star Willis to take over as left tackle (which Payne does have a say in, thanks to his contract). Willis himself is still a bit low on TPE compared to what would be ideal, but the Crash are gradually leaning more pass heavy so there's a chance for some nice upside here.
7) Dusty Wilson
Wilson performed surprisingly well in S44, tying for 3rd in the fantasy rankings despite Yellowknife's run heavy attack. That kind of performance will be difficult to repeat, however, as Dusty is regressing and the Wraiths just went through some major turnover in their offensive ranks. Wilson's upside looks questionable as Yellowknife's offense likely takes a sizable step back.
8) Owen Farrell
Farrell is quite low in TPE, but he is the starting left tackle for a San Jose team that figures to be throwing the ball more often than not. It got him to an OL5 finish last season, so it's entirely possible for Farrell to end up fantasy relevant again in S45.
Kickers
Kickers are mostly random and possess minimal variance from top to bottom. There's a reason most fantasy vets will tell you to wait until the last round to take one. However, that doesn't mean some options aren't better than others. Generally speaking, you want to find a kicker attached to a good offense, and one who has at least 4-500 TPE, in that order. My rankings below essentially reflect how I think the offenses of each team will perform, with only minor adjustments for kickers who have particularly high or low TPE.
1) Wing Wang
2) Ray Baker
3) Bob Kickerson
4) Swantavius King
5) Jayme Jayne Jay-Jaymison
6) Eliot Bukowski
7) Golden Foote
8) Master Chief
Defensive Linemen
1) Bruce White
If you've read my guides for previous years, I've pretty thoroughly laid out why defensive tackles rule fantasy scoring. So why do I have a defensive end at the top of my rankings? Well, a little birdy told me that New Orleans plans to split White out at linebacker a fair bit this season. Makes sense, given that NOLA currently only has one linebacker on the roster. If White is indeed taking snaps at outside linebacker, then that means he's going to be getting linebacker production at the defensive line spot. That's a pretty massive advantage.
2) Mo Gago
And after that brief interlude, back to our regularly scheduled programming. Gago is the big man on the Wraiths' defensive line, with little in the way of linebacker talent to beat him to the punch. Gago was DL1 last season and should make a good run at it again this season.
3) MC Hammer
Hammer finds himself in a similar situation as Gago, except Baltimore does have at least one solid linebacker on the roster. Still, Hammer was a top 5 DL last season and there's little reason to suspect a drop off.
4) Carly Rae Jensen
Same as Hammer, except now there are two good linebackers to contend with. Still, Jensen is a very high TPE defensive tackle, so she should perform well enough.
5) Sir Tywrell Xah'Aawrone
I know Arizona knows how to deploy a defensive tackle for maximum production because they did it with longtime Outlaw stalwart Raphael McTurtle, so why Xah'Aawrone finished as the DL14 last season is a mystery to me. What I do know is that Xah'Aawrone has a clear path to relevance as a high TPE defensive tackle with only a pair of linebackers to contend with. Expect some improvement in S45.
6) Lionel Scrimmage
Scrimmage has some serious competition on New York's defensive line, but at least the Silverbacks' linebackers are getting hit by regression. Scrimmage finished last season as the DL4 and is still on the rise, so the potential is certainly there. The main risk is whether Scrimmage will retain the coveted RDT slot in the face of stiff competition from Dub Redd. Be prepared to burn a waiver quickly if Redd wins out.
7) Bridge Burner
Honolulu boasts an all around great defense, with multiple 1k+ TPE players on both the defensive line and in the linebacker corps. It makes it tough for any individual player to really shine, such as Burner only finishing as the DL7 last season. Still, Burner is a 1200 TPE defensive tackle. That's worth something.
8) Alex Armstrong
If only the Sabercats would play a 4-3 defense. Armstrong is currently the best defensive end in the league, but I can confirm from experience that being a defensive end in a 3-4 defense only goes so far. In a league taken over by elite defensive tackles, Armstrong is going to have an uphill battle to fantasy relevance.
Linebackers
1) Sim Sunigh
Orange County's offense is good enough to put pressure on opposing offenses to keep up. Sunigh has very little defensive line talent in front of him to steal his glory and is currently the 3rd highest TPE linebacker in the league. He might have to fight fellow linebacker John Stark VIII for stats, but Sunigh should be an elite linebacker in S45.
2) Max Honestly
Honestly has a little more defensive line talent in front of him than Sunigh, but the tradeoff is that he's the clear LB1 for the Sailfish. He just finished as the LB3 last season and is poised for a repeat performance.
3) Rolud Onyxgut
I do have some concerns that Cape Town's personnel would indicate a 4-3 base defense, and if those fears come to fruition then it'll pretty significantly reduce Onyxgut's upside. As it stands, though, I have been told that the Crash will employ a 3-4 defensive front, giving Onyxgut free rein over a front seven that doesn't have a single player over 800 TPE aside from himself.
4) Sledge Hammer
Hammer was one of the players I planted my flag in last season, and he paid dividends with a banner year. I expect some dropoff in S45 since Hammer is now starting to go through regression, but he still has a great situation for a linebacker.
5) Donte Darius
The linebacker situation in Colorado is a bit strange. Waylen Greene is the 2nd highest TPE linebacker in the entire league, but the Yeti insist on playing him as a MLB. This leaves Darius as the top outside linebacker. It's still a somewhat crowded linebacker corps even then, but at least Darius doesn't have to worry about any elite defensive linemen eating up stats.
6) Cruella de Ville
San Jose's front seven is starting to look quite stacked as it now boasts three players over 1k TPE. De Ville is still the top linebacker and should be the most productive of the front seven, but there's enough competition for stats that de Ville's ceiling is probably a bit lower than the other elite linebackers.
7) Sherwin Blue Jr
Finally, Arizona frees Blue! Blue will immediately step in as the highest TPE linebacker for the Outlaws, even after considering secondary bank TPE from the position swap. He has some competition in the front seven, but Blue has a big enough TPE lead that he should still show up in the stat sheet.
8) Maxwell Friedman
Much like teammate Bridge Burner, Friedman is suffering from success. Honolulu simply has too many good players in the front seven, which limits the impact any individual player can make. Friedman is the best linebacker in the league, but being stuck in the highest TPE defense in the league caps his potential.
Defensive Backs
1) Luigi Lanikai
Honolulu boasts an elite offense, which will likely force opponents to pass to keep up. The Hahalua also have an absolutely elite front seven, so while their secondary is nothing to scoff at it is technically easier to target than running the ball. Lanikai should be targeted often, which gives him some very nice potential.
2) Jake Williams
The Hawks also boast an elite offense, but where Williams might struggle a bit is that Baltimore's defense is easier to attack on the ground than through the air. Still, when you're trying to keep up with Beatz & Co., there's only so much running you can do if you don't want to get left in the dust.
3) Legs McMillion
Cape Town's defense is ultimately pretty well rounded, but the more important factor in McMillion's ranking is that they've consistently been a top offense for several seasons. If you're throwing the ball all over the field just to keep up, the opposing CB1 is going to get plenty of chances.
4) Fronky Fresh
Sarasota's defense sits in a weird position where everything is pretty weak except for a handful of absolute studs. Fresh is one of those studs. Sarasota consistently finds their way to a high scoring offense every season, which puts pressure on opposing teams to keep up. Fresh is well positioned to take advantage of the increased passing volume.
5) Jamdrian LeBayers
Ctrl + c, ctrl + v the entry for Fresh. The only difference between LeBayers' setup in Orange County and Fronky Fresh's setup in Sarasota is that the Otters probably aren't as pass heavy as Sarasota.
6) Bonzi Buddy
I deviate big time from my fellow rankers in placing Buddy this high, and it's not hard to see why. Buddy enters the season after dipping below 900 TPE from regression. That's pretty low for a CB1 in general, and certainly much lower than you'd like to see for a fantasy CB1. Where Buddy has potential, however, is in just how good New York's offense is and just how tough it is to run on them. The Silverbacks have a pass funnel defense, and my money is on Buddy being able to take advantage.
7) Benjamin Duvernay
Duvernay already finished as the DB3 last season, and has continued to gain TPE going into S45. So why the dropoff? It's hard not to feel like so much production for a lower TPE CB is a fluke. Still, the Outlaws boast a strong offense, and their defense generally looks easier to pass on than run on. There's a chance Duvernay could repeat.
8) Brooks Piggott
Unlike pretty much every other player in this section, Piggott is probably not attached to such a good offense. However, San Jose has a killer front seven that will likely be very difficult to run on. If teams find it easier to pass than run on the Sabercats, Piggott could still see enough volume to put up some stats.
RE: Tuba's S45 Fantasy Guide - soevil - 11-22-2023
+5 to JHM.
-5 to Morley
Joe Reed unranked? *feelsuneasyman*
Defending RoTY Nah’sim gonna be top 18 easy.
Sleeper pick Leharm James LB to be a top 10 guy.
Look for one of Chicagos defensive backs (Owidhuse, Savage, or Hugandkiss(!) to beak top 10.
RE: Tuba's S45 Fantasy Guide - TubaDeus - 11-22-2023
(11-22-2023, 06:39 AM)soevil Wrote: +5 to JHM.I actually do have James at #10. Don't see Nah'sim doing quite that well, though, unless he either he usurps the WR1 role from Morley or the Butchers throw enough to make both JHM and Jefferson irrelevant.
-5 to Morley
Joe Reed unranked? *feelsuneasyman*
Defending RoTY Nah’sim gonna be top 18 easy.
Sleeper pick Leharm James LB to be a top 10 guy.
Look for one of Chicagos defensive backs (Owidhuse, Savage, or Hugandkiss(!) to beak top 10.
RE: Tuba's S45 Fantasy Guide - soevil - 11-22-2023
(11-22-2023, 11:10 AM)TubaDeus Wrote:(11-22-2023, 06:39 AM)soevil Wrote: +5 to JHM.I actually do have James at #10. Don't see Nah'sim doing quite that well, though, unless he either he usurps the WR1 role from Morley or the Butchers throw enough to make both JHM and Jefferson irrelevant.
-5 to Morley
Joe Reed unranked? *feelsuneasyman*
Defending RoTY Nah’sim gonna be top 18 easy.
Sleeper pick Leharm James LB to be a top 10 guy.
Look for one of Chicagos defensive backs (Owidhuse, Savage, or Hugandkiss(!) to beak top 10.
Nah’sim is Sim’Blessed. I expect both Morley and Nah’sim to finish between 12-18
RE: Tuba's S45 Fantasy Guide - 18situaseans - 11-22-2023
I use this article to motivate me every season.
RE: Tuba's S45 Fantasy Guide - Ulaire - 11-23-2023
Not even ranked anymore ._.
RE: Tuba's S45 Fantasy Guide - Chicken Lips - 11-23-2023
My team apparently has a lot of sleeper potential or im totally screwed
RE: Tuba's S45 Fantasy Guide - Hydrium - 11-24-2023
I deem your tribute acceptable.