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+---- Thread: *Playoff Teams with Negative Point Differential (/showthread.php?tid=49231)
*Playoff Teams with Negative Point Differential - ztarwarz - 01-19-2024
Every so often, we get a bad, horrendous playoff team. The kind that makes you wonder how they even made it into the top 3 teams in their conference, or if not that, the kind that makes you wonder just how weak that conference truly was. And sometimes, those playoff teams go on to do amazing things despite their perceived low quality. Inspired by the 1 seed with a negative point differential we just saw in the Yeti, I wanted to go over each and every season, find all the teams with a negative point differential, and discuss all of them.
S1 Yeti
Record: 8-6
Point differential per game: -0.2 (3 total)
Seed: 1
Offensive Rank: 3/4
Defensive Rank: 2/4
Playoff Result: 1-1, lost in Ultimus
Conference Record comparison: -2
The Yeti were the only S1 team to make the postseason with a negative point differential, and even then it was only -3 in total. They eked out an 8-6 record, tied for the best in the conference and only one win behind the league leading Outlaws, and won the tiebreaker on head to head, with a 3-1 record over the Yellowknife Wraiths. In the playoffs, they beat the Wraiths again, 13-6, holding them to 1-13 on 3rd down and shutting them out completely in the 2nd half, coming back from a 6-3 deficit. The Ultimus did not go anywhere near as well, with the Yeti throwing a pick 6 on their second drive of the game and never being able to score enough to make up the gap created then and there, losing 6-29 in the first Ultimus. The Yeti were a mediocre team that were very able to beat every other team in the league that season (except the 4-10 Sabercats somehow) but compared to the true class of the league that season, were unable to overcome them in the title game. Really, the S1 Yeti are most notable for being from the season where an average team getting the 1 seed makes the most sense, and also for making the first and last entries of this group a pair.
S2 Hawks
Record: 8-6
Point differential per game: -0.2 (2 total)
Seed: 1
Offensive Rank: 2/4
Defensive Rank: 2/4
Playoff Result: 1-1, lost in Ultimus
Conference Record Comparison: +2
The Hawks were able to come out on top of a 3 way tie for the same 8-6 record in a way that might have been the first case of the Sim screwing someone on "Points For" being the tiebreaker for some reason instead of "Point Differential". That's besides the point, though, as the Hawks would have been the first seed either way due to a better conference record, one win better over the Wraiths and the Yeti. The 14-16 scoreline of their first playoff game against the Wraiths was a bit closer than the Yeti from the year prior, yet statistically they were more dominant, with more yards gained and less yards allowed, and better marks on yards per play. However, the Wraiths were buoyed by a 92 yard kickoff return for a touchdown to make an offense that put together exactly one good drive all day look significantly better. The game against the Outlaws in the Ultimus, now fully in the Er Multi era, went significantly worse. A 33-6 final that had the Hawks shut out until near the end of the 3rd quarter, a 3.6 yards per attempt from the QB, all in all just a team that was significantly outgunned by a cheating Outlaw squad. It's somewhat hard to judge these Hawks and the Yeti; the Yeti were slightly worse everywhere except during the playoffs, where they were slightly better. I think I'd give it to the Hawks, being 4th of 8 in point ranks is better than being 4th of 6.
S3 Liberty
Record: 8-5-1
Point Differential per Game: -0.1 (2 total)
Seed: 2
Offensive Rank: 2/4
Defensive Rank: 3/5
Playoff Result: 0-1, lost in Conference Final
Conference Record Comparison: -1
I assume the rounding of points for and points against work to make this team look better on the point differential than last year despite having factually the same point differential. Of course, this team actually fares the worst out of all three teams gone over so far due to them completely collapsing in the first round of the playoffs against a team that wasn't as good as either of the championship Outlaws from the years prior. By record, this is the best team so far and just appears to be another of the average teams that can easily make the playoffs in a system where 4/8 make it. Then they lost 3-34 in the first round of the playoffs in a fashion that feels unbelievable considering the Liberty won the turnover battle 2-1 and gained over 300 yards. It's not like there were missed field goal attempts, either. It's almost mind boggling to score 3 points with 335 yards and only one turnover. They were even 3/4 on 4th down, so it's not like they just turned it over on 4th a bunch either.
S4 Liberty
Record: 7-7
Point Differential per Game: -6.1 (85 total)
Seed: 2
Offensive Rank: 3/6
Defensive Rank: 3/6
Playoff Result: 0-1, lost in Conference Final
Conference Record Comparison: -10
Now we're getting into the real stinkers; this is a Liberty team that managed to get into the playoffs with a .500 record and only got in due to superior conference record over an opponent with a much better, albeit still negative, point differential. They swept their conference, which isn't really a feat in a year where the conference tops out at 8-6 and your conference as a whole was 10 games worse than their opposite. This is the first example of a downright putrid team making the postseason, and they easily go in last. Except for one small thing: they actually gave their first round opponents in the Wraiths a run for their money. They held a 17-3 lead entering the 4th quarter, and despite throwing it away in the first 7 minutes of that period, they still brought the game back to OT. I'm still putting this team last so far, but this is the first time that it feels like a bad playoff team punched significantly above their weight in the playoffs, like a lot of the worst playoff teams ever have in the real NFL.
S7 Outlaws
Record: 5-9
Point Differential per Game: -5.4 (76 total)
Seed: 2
Offensive Rank: 2/5
Defensive Rank: 4/7
Playoff Result: 0-1, lost in Conference Final
Conference Record Comparison: -4
After a couple seasons which are more notable for how bad the teams at the bottom were than how bad the teams at the bottom of the playoffs were, the Outlaws squeaked in with a point differential aided by a +34 mark over 2 games with the worst team of all time. Granted, the S4 Yeti weren't that much better than the S7 Yeti in all, and the Liberty still put together a +31 mark against them, so it's not like the point differential would suddenly go against them. But seriously, how did this team make the playoffs with that record? Making the playoffs over the similarly 5-9 Sabercats due to a better conference record, it's probably not much of a shock that this team had absolutely no chance in their playoff matchup against the Otters due to their defense stinking it up yet again with a 24-48 showing that wasn't anywhere near that close in the sim. Basically, the entire conference outside of the Otters was abysmal and won a total of 2 games that didn't involve either other members of the 3 way terrible conference, or the Yeti. They also beat up on each other a ton. Due to the abysmal record, this is getting last, probably overall; something tells me a 5-9 record isn't going to be beaten in terms of awfulness, though I could see more teams with worse point differential.
S9 Yeti
Record: 8-6
Point Differential per Game: -1.0 (14 total)
Seed: 2
Offensive Rank: 3/5
Defensive Rank: 3/5
Playoff Result: 0-1, lost in Conference Final
Conference Record Comparison: +4
This is back towards what was usual for this era of the ISFL, a team sneaking in with worse game to game performance but a better record (the Wraiths had a .500 record despite beating their opponents by 4.5 points per game), being an overall average or in this case slightly below average team on both sides of the ball, ending in a playoff game where they actually held up decently well. In their 34-40 loss to the Hawks, they were competitive for the vast majority of that game, being within 1 possession for all but a sub 4 minute stretch of gametime in the early 4th quarter. This is also notable for being the first time that the conference with the negative point differential playoff team were more than a single result in their favor positively.
S10 Otters
Record: 7-7
Point Differential per Game: -3.8 (52 total)
Seed: 2
Offensive Rank: 4/7
Defensive Rank: 2/4
Playoff Result: 0-1, lost in Conference Final
Conference Record Comparison: -4
For the 2nd time out of 2, the ASFC enters a playoff team with a negative point differential in a year where there's a winless team in the other conference and nobody except the conference champion looks better than below average despite getting to beat up on them. These Otters aren't quite as awful as the S7 Outlaws, though they still put together a +39 point differential over their 2 games against the Liberty. Similarly to those Outlaws, one side of the ball was near the bottom of the league, only beating out the winless team for the worst mark in the league that season, and that side of the ball did not live up to their end of the bargain in the playoff game. Although, the Otters defense more than did; they held the Second Line to 10 points and over 100 yards less than they averaged per game, plus a great 5.1 yards per attempt. It's just that the Offense was unable to muster up more than a field goal and thus fell 10-3 despite holding a lead at halftime over the best team in the league that season by point differential.
S12 Liberty
Record: 7-7
Point Differential per Game: -1.5 (21 total)
Seed: 2
Offensive Rank: 2/3
Defensive Rank: 2/5
Playoff Result: 0-1, lost in Conference Final
Conference Record Comparison: -8
This reminds me way too much of the previous Liberty season in S4 for me to not comment on it; it breaks the -1 point per game mark, which I think separates the perfectly average from below average tier, it comes in right behind it in terms of the worst performing conference in these rankings, and just like that S4 team, they took their vastly superior conference opponent, this time the Hawks, all the way to Overtime, only losing 30-24 to a team who had outscored them 108-35 in their previous two meetings that season.
S17 Sabercats
Record: 6-7
Point Differential per Game: -4.0 (52 total)
Seed: 3
Offensive Rank: 4/8
Defensive Rank: 3/6
Playoff Result: 0-1, lost in Wild Card
Conference Record Comparison: -3
This entry leaves the Wraiths as the last team of the original 6 to show up on this list, as well as the first entry from the 6 season period where 6/10 teams made the postseason in 13 game seasons. As such, some really weak teams made the playoffs, including one of the lowest point differential teams to win the Ultimus in S16. However, due to the weakness of the expansion Copperheads and the S16 Yeti, all 6 of the playoff teams that season ended up above 0 for their point differential. These Sabercats were not close at all. With a worse offense than multiple teams that ended up with a worse season than them, and a slightly below average defense, the S16 Sabercats were still able to look OK in the playoff game; however, the 20-13 final score looks a little better than it actually was considering that after the Sabercats cut the lead to seven, the Otters drove for the rest of the game and ran out the clock in field goal range. Considering the Otters jumped out to a 17-0 lead, the final score really doesn't tell how lopsided the actual game was.
S18 Copperheads
Record: 6-7
Point Differential per Game: -1.8 (23 total)
Seed: 3
Offensive Rank: 1/2
Defensive Rank: 5/10
Playoff Result: 0-1, lost in Wild Card
Conference Record Comparison: +3
S18 Yeti
Record: 5-8
Point Differential per Game: -5.3 (68 total)
Seed: 3
Offensive Rank: 5/9
Defensive Rank: 3/7
Playoff Result: 0-1, lost in Wild Card
Conference Record Comparison: -3
These two are getting touched on together for multiple reasons, starting with that they are our first pair of teams to take place in the same season. Both the Yeti and Copperheads came in as the 3 seed in the expanded playoffs, and bowed out in the first round as their low point differential might have you believe. That's all that this really compares between though; the Copperheads were a completely lopsided team with the 2nd best offense in the league and the worst defense (by 40 entire points!) while the Yeti were merely a bad Defense paired with the 2nd worst offense in the league, albeit they were far closer to being the 4th worst than they were to being last. The conference record and point differential also slates heavily in the Copperheads favor. But what really solidifies this as a Tale of Two Teams is that the Copperheads proceeded to play a Copperhead style of game, losing 33-26 to a pretty good Outlaws team (+5.9) for their Wild Card opponent, while the Yeti played a Yeti style of game and thus made me want to put them below the S7 Outlaws for Single Worst Playoff team ever. Against the Baltimore Hawks, a team with a losing record albeit a slightly positive point differential (+1.6), the Yeti proceeded to get completely shut out, losing 0-31 against an average Wild Card team. Considering the S7 Outlaws managed to muster a better point differential in their playoff game against a far superior opponent, that's the tiebreaker for me. So far this Yeti team is the worst playoff team ever with a negative point differential, and I wouldn't be surprised if these Copperheads are the best of this class, at least from this era of the expanded playoffs.
S20 Hawks
Record: 6-7
Point Differential per Game: -0.9 (11 total)
Seed: 3
Offensive Rank: 4/8
Defensive Rank: 4/7
Playoff Result: 0-1, lost in Wild Card
Conference Record Comparison: -3
Well, just after I wrote that, I come across these Hawks, a team superior in almost every way. The main mark against them comparatively is that this was the weaker conference instead of the stronger one, and that their even closer 29-26 playoff loss was against the S20 Yeti, a +2.3 point differential team who was, accordingly, 2 wins worse than the Outlaws the Copperheads played in the playoffs. Not much more to say than that; this team probably beats out the Copperheads due to being less than half as negative in the regular season.
S21 Copperheads
Record: 7-6
Point Differential per Game: -1.2 (16 total)
Seed: 3
Offensive Rank : 3/6
Defensive Rank: 4/7
Playoff Result: 0-1, lost in Wild Card
Conference Record Comparison: +1
And the Copperheads show up for a 2nd time in an at this point 6 year history. Considering they lost 23-17 to an amazing Wild Card team in the Second Line, who were +8.8 on the year, I'm actually somewhat inclined to give them the edge over both previous seasons mentioned for this stretch. They all ended in games that were made 1 score games without enough time to come back in completely, either, and this team actually has a winning record unlike every other team in this stretch of seasons to come into the playoffs with a losing record. While they do have a worse point differential than the S20 Hawks, it's really not by much.
S22 Sailfish
Record: 6-7
Point Differential per Game: -3.7 (47 total)
Seed: 3
Offensive Rank: 4/9
Defensive Rank: 4/8
Playoff Result: 0-1, lost in Wild Card
Conference Record Comparison: -8
In this, the first season where there were 12 teams (and the only one of those seasons to have only 13 games) the Sailfish managed to eke out a playoff spot over a team superior to them in every aspect except conference record. The Sailfish directly contributed to the extremely negative cross conference record of the NSFC this season, going 0-3 in cross conference play. Really, this was just a poor team in a conference which was mostly poor teams; their playoff performance went similarly, with eventual champions the Colorado Yeti putting up 29 straight points before the Sailfish were finally able to strike back with a kickoff return for a touchdown in the 4th quarter.
S23 Second Line
Record: 9-7
Point Differential per Game: -1.3 (21 total)
Seed: 2
Offensive Rank: 3/5
Defensive Rank: 5/10
Playoff Result: 0-1, lost in Wild Card
Conference Record Comparison: 0
This is the first time we've seen a team with a negative point differential appear in a season where both conferences had an even record. This is also the first time we've seen a 2 seed as a team with a negative point differential since the expansion to 3 playoff teams per conference back in S16. As you might expect with no negative conference record attached to the ASFC this season, this Second Line team were not the 2nd best team by point differential; in fact only the last place Sabercats were worse. Adding onto this, the S23 Second Line manage something special: they are the first ever team to make the postseason with a negative point differential and lose a home playoff game. Granted, it's out of only 3 so far who have had a home playoff game; this team and the S1+S2 NSFC Conference leaders are the only three thus far, but it's still notable. By losing 20-15 to an also not all that good Copperheads squad (only +0.3 on the season, won their playoff berth on head to head), the Second Line made an ignoble type of history.
S24 Butchers
Record: 7-9
Point Differential per Game: -6.4 (102 total)
Seed: 3
Offensive Rank: 5/11
Defensive Rank: 4/10
Playoff Result: 0-1, lost in Wild Card
Conference Record Comparison: -6
S24 is a legendary season for a number of reasons: the 4 car pileup in the ASFC of 9-7 teams that would have you believe a team that didn't make the playoffs did if you just look at the front page of the index for that season; a matchup of 1 seeds in the Ultimus that saw the teams separated by 5 whole wins, all while the better conference over the course of the season was actually the ASFC; the massive Ultimus upset...with all that said, this Butchers team that breaks new ground for sheer ineptitude that still managed to make a playoff game seems to get lost in the shuffle a bit. This is the worst marking by point differential we've seen in a single season thus far; no team listed above would have worse than -100 even if you made all of their seasons 16 games. Not since the S4 Liberty have we seen a pair of offense or defense ranks both in the bottom 3, and that was back during an 8 team league! Heck, considering both of the Liberty's ranks had them at 3rd from the bottom, and one of these ranks has the Butchers as the 2nd worst offense (specifically, a worse offense than a 3-13 Hawks squad that lost ten straight games to close the season) this is the worst team we've ever seen make the postseason. The only teams who even have arguments otherwise get there based on record, not performance.
So how did they do in the playoffs? Well, they gave a Sailfish team with a +8.5 point differential per game a real scare; they even held a lead in the second half over them. As such they might not be quite as bad as the S18 Yeti, but this is probably still going to take the crown for the worst regular season performance to ever make the postseason.
S25 Butchers
Record: 8-8
Point Differential per Game: -0.3 (5 total)
Seed: 3
Offensive Rank: 6/13
Defensive Rank: 2/2
Playoff Result: 1-1, lost in Conference Championship
Conference Record Comparison: +2
Speaking of should be notable Butchers squads that are overlooked, this squad made and broke a couple streaks. It's the first time since the S3/S4 Liberty that a team has made back to back Playoff appearances with negative point differentials, it's the first time a team has won with a negative point differential in the playoffs away from home in ISFL history. Built on a strong defense to overcome a bottom 2 offense, this team ran up the score on a really good Sailfish team that won 11 games, opening up a 27-3 lead late in the third, and while the Sailfish eventually closed it to 27-20, the Sailfish's one opportunity to tie it up ended with a turnover on downs inside the red zone. The Butchers then got utterly stomped by a 13-3 Yeti squad, 34-7, but it's not like that really matters. They did enough. By all accounts this should be the best team with a negative point differential to ever make the playoffs. Instead they're not the best team with a negative point differential to make the playoffs in S25.
S25 Sabercats
Record: 9-7
Point Differential per Game: -0.8 (13 total)
Seed: 3
Offensive Rank: 5/7
Defensive Rank: 4/7
Playoff Result: 3-0, Ultimus Champions
Conference Record Comparison: -2
The big one. The legendary squad that heard how everyone thought their Ultimus run the year before was flukey, and decided to top it with an even more flukey run that technically was much more sound in terms of scorelines and play on the field. Well, not in the Wild Card round against the Outlaws, that was close. That took a pick six after each side had multiple possessions in OT to finally end the game, after overcoming a 21-6 deficit at halftime. Final score, 33-27. Next up, the Otters, a game in which the Sabercats never let the Otters take a lead and eventually sealed it up with a touchdown late, 23-14. Finally, the Ultimus against the Yeti, which saw the Sabercats pick the Yeti off twice and after a scoreless first quarter amass a stranglehold on the lead, 34-17 after a late consolation touchdown. By most metrics, this is the single worst team to win an Ultimus, and one of the worst teams to even make it, if not the absolute worst. But they did the one thing they needed to do anyways: win it all.
S26 Silverbacks
Record: 9-7
Point Differential per Game: -0.2 (4 total)
Seed: 1
Offensive Rank: 7/14
Defensive Rank: 1/2
Playoff Result: 0-1, lost in Conference Championship
Conference Record Comparison: 0
If you want to see a cluster of epic proportions, look no further than the S26 ASFC playoff bracket. Due to a five team tie at 9-7, 2 teams were going to miss the playoffs with a winning record, and somehow this included one of the teams in the top 3 listed on the index. I believe this was points for tiebreaker stupidity, though I don't remember off the top of my head. But the other team to completely miss out was the team with the best point differential. Somehow, the team with the worst point differential wound up on top, but would eventually have to travel for their Championship game due to the sim being held together by gum and an alien's understanding of how football works. These Silverbacks couldn't score, but they sure as heck weren't going to let you score either. Only the 13 win team in the other conference had a better defense, and not even 4 or 3 win teams had a worse offense. Really though, this team is most notable for how they lost their one playoff game that was away for some reason. Over 3 plays with 2 minutes left, the Second Line got 43 and 24 yard pass plays to score a touchdown to send the game to Overtime. Here, the Silverbacks D would stiffen up and force a punt, only for the offense to fumble on the first play and leave the Second Line to run the ball one time to end the game, 43-37, despite entering the 4th quarter with a 14 point lead. As is, this is one of the best teams to technically get here but is hard to judge against its other 1st seed competition due to not having an actual home playoff game like any of the others.
S33 Otters
Record: 9-7
Point Differential per Game: -0.2 (2 total)
Seed: 2
Offensive Rank: 4/9
Defensive Rank: 2/6
Playoff Result: 2-1, lost in Ultimus
Conference Record Comparison: -12
There are 2 ways to look at this team. On one hand, they have the single best point differential, or at least tied with others who had shorter seasons, of any team to be listed. They have the 2nd best time in the playoffs, and whoever's 3rd is far off considering this team managed to win both a home and an away playoff game. It might have an argument for the single best if not for them giving up a 14 point comeback in the Ultimus in 5 minutes, albeit none of their games were as easy as the Sabercats; they only won their first two rounds 20-16 and 34-29, before losing 41-38 in the Ultimus. There is, however, a but. And that but is that this is the single most lopsided conference record we've seen thus far. Granted, technically it's only one game worse than some others, and it's not like that changes my viewpoint much on this, but it's still a black mark against this team. Not enough of one to change this from being the 2nd best playoff team with a negative point differential, though.
S34 Second Line
Record: 8-8
Point Differential per Game: -3.1 (49 total)
Seed: 3
Offensive Rank: 5/9
Defensive Rank: 6/10
Playoff Result: 0-1, lost in Wild Card
Conference Record Comparison: +2
It's been a decade since the last truly heinous playoff team, and while this one isn't quite as bad as the S24 Butchers, they do make up, or rather down, a little via one of the worst performances we've seen on this entire list. Losing 30-3 and not scoring until the final 5 minutes of regulation against, granted, a pretty strong 2nd seed at +5.9, this team did not put its best foot forward for the playoff game. Their playoff berth got in due to a superior conference record compared to their competition, the Silverbacks, who were otherwise a much better team than the Second Line in almost every metric that didn't involve the running game.
S36 Sabercats
Record: 10-6
Point Differential per Game: -0.6 (10 total)
Seed: 2
Offensive Rank: 3/7
Defensive Rank: 5/10
Playoff Result: 0-1, lost in Wild Card
Conference Record Comparison: 0
Only the 2nd team to lose at home out of the 5 we've seen so far, this Sabercats team performed even worse in their playoff game compared to the S23 Second Line, losing 28-13 to a decent at best Outlaws team despite gaining more yards and more first downs. Sure, they lost the turnover battle but not in a way that impacted the final score all that much. Their kicker somehow missed a 17 yard field goal, but that still wouldn't have been enough to not make this a 2 possession loss. How about the season itself? It's honestly kind of unremarkable. The best they were in any particular stat was 4th in yards per game, and no stat for the Sabercats was worse than their 10th in points allowed per game. Just unremarkable outside of having arguably the worst performance in a home game of any team on this list.
S37 Second Line
Record: 9-7
Point Differential per Game: -0.6 (10 total)
Seed: 2
Offensive Rank: 6/11
Defensive Rank: 1/5
Playoff Result: 0-1, lost in Wild Card
Conference Record Comparison: -12
Well, this seems familiar. Again, it's a 2 seed with exactly a -10 point differential that lost a home game in the Wild Card. However, pretty much all of the surrounding factors make this a worse team than the Sabercats the year prior. They lost by more, 27-10, to a much worse team that was only +7 all season in Honolulu (that's less than half a point per game), and the conference as a whole was a ton worse. This ties the worst conference we've looked at with the S33 ASFC. Although notably this time the ASFC won the Ultimus. The playoff game feels a bit more lopsided, even, looking at underlying stats. The defense, which was the only above average part of this team, gave up over 7 yards per run and over 9 yards per carry, though somehow the Hahalua got less first downs during the game than the Second Line despite those marks, only 15 to the 16 the Second Line got.
S38 Hawks
Record: 9-7
Point Differential per Game: -1.2 (19 total)
Seed: 3
Offensive Rank: 7/13
Defensive Rank: 2/3
Playoff Result: 0-1, lost in Wild Card
Conference Record Comparison: -2
Something I've noticed is that both times we've seen a winless team and a team making the playoffs with a negative point differential, the Conference Record actually favors the side with the winless team. This is something I didn't realize, but the only time a conference has had a losing record as a whole along with a winless team was the S6 NSFC. So, what about these Hawks? Well, they gave up the 3rd most yards all season but somehow gave up the 3rd least points. The 2 teams worse than them in yards per game allowed were the bottom 2 teams in points allowed, so they very much were on their own here. That defense played a bend don't break style that broke badly in the playoff game, losing 38-32. They hadn't allowed 38 points all season, but did so to a team with the 3rd worst offense in the league in the Wraiths.
S39 Second Line
Record: 8-8
Point Differential per Game: -0.4 (6 total)
Seed: 3
Offensive Rank: 4/9
Defensive Rank: 3/5
Playoff Result: 1-1, lost in Conference Championship
Conference Record Comparison: -10
I feel like the comeback this team made would be more notable if it wasn't both the Wild Card game and the last time we've seen the Second Line in the playoffs. For a Conference as negative compared to the other side as the ASFC this season, both of the top 2 seeds were pretty good. So when a +5.4 team builds an 18-0 lead through 3 quarters, that might be a little shocking but not all that much. When the score is 10-21 with 3:33 left after a field goal, that should be it. The fact that this Second Line team managed to come back and win 22-21 on a 4 yard touchdown run with 27 seconds left and no time outs on 4th and 1 is the kind of thing that would usually live on in infamy. Heck, considering this was during the long stretch of time where the Copperheads couldn't win a playoff game, maybe it did. Besides that, this was just a good for this list, bad for a playoff team as a whole team, that lost 37-24 in the next round to a team that wouldn't even go on to win it all themselves.
S40 Otters
Record: 7-8-1
Point Differential per Game: -5.0 (81 total)
Seed: 3
Offensive Rank: 5/11
Defensive Rank: 6/11
Playoff Result: 1-1, lost in Conference Championship
Conference Record Comparison: -9
This is by far the worst team to ever win a playoff game. Before this, the worst team to win a playoff game by point differential was merely the S25 Sabercats at -0.8, and this team was over 6 times worse and not good at either end of the field. Bottom 4 in both Offensive and Defensive performance, this competes directly with the S24 Butchers for all around incompetence, albeit with a much better point differential and actually winning a playoff game. Speaking of terrible playoff losses that an Austin team can look at with much less sadness now that they won the S45 Ultimus, how about losing to a team 7.5 points worse than you per game due to 5 turnovers, 3 forced fumbles all bouncing their way, and a winning score of the Otters forcing and recovering a fumble inside the end zone? 20-13 final. Technically if it was a safety, the final possession for the Copperheads ended with them having a turnover on downs in chip shot field goal range, so they might have had a chance to win. Overall, abject failure for the Copperheads, and an amazing victory for the Otters. This was then followed up by them getting utterly stomped 37-17 by an Outlaws squad that is one of the best the league has ever seen, so the fact that the score was within one possession for a total of a single Outlaws possession in the 2nd half isn't a big mark against them; they actually outperformed the straight up point margin between both teams while losing by 20.
S45 Yeti
Record: 10-6
Point Differential per Game: -0.5 (8 total)
Seed: 1
Offensive Rank: 7/12
Defensive Rank: 1/4
Playoff Result: 0-1, lost in Conference Championship
Conference Record Comparison: 0
Yes, we didn't see a team with a negative point differential make it that entire time; this is the second longest gap in league history to S26-S33. The reason I wrote this article in the first place, the Yeti last season made the playoffs and even got the one seed despite a negative point differential, the first time we've seen that in nearly 20 seasons. It's almost incredible that this team still had the 3rd worst offense in the league and a negative point differential despite winning the final game of the season with an incredible scoreline of 69-14. If they lost that final game, this spot would be a discussion about where they place among the worst teams to ever make the playoffs. Instead, by losing 30-17 to the Sailfish, despite holding them to 12 first downs and 2/9 3rd down efficiency, this team ends up taking the ignoble title of the worst performing 1 seed ever. No other 1 seed on this list lost a home playoff game. The other 1 seed to lose their first playoff game had to go on the road for stupid reasons and also lost in OT instead of the 2 possession regulation loss. The 55 point win, unless I missed a game in my perusal of all these schedules, is also a record for biggest win by any team on this list.
Finally, it's somewhat funny that last year would have been the first ever year for 2 teams from the same conference to make the postseason with negative point differentials if the sim worked correctly, and despite that it would have been a year where neither conference could come out on top in cross conference play.
Thank you for reading.
RE: Playoff Teams with Negative Point Differential - iStegosauruz - 01-20-2024
Cool article. I'd be interested how it works out when you normalize the data for performance outliers.
So take the S45 Yeti - the reason I'm commenting for transparency. If you drop the worst loss we had all season (week 11 to NYS 47-3 / 44 point swing) and adjust the point differential accordingly the team scores 364 points and surrendered 328. Take those totals and divide by 15 to get the average PF/PA in each game and add that back in to assume they hit a normal, non-outlier game in that match and their PF/PA ends up being 388/350.
To be fair though, lets drop the end of season high-scoring outlier against against the Crash (week 15 by 69-14 / 55 point swing). Taking it out (with the loss to NYS) the team scored 309 in 14 games and surrendered 309. An even PF/PA. Adjust for average outcomes then (dividing by 14) still leaves it even but at 331/331.
Take it one outlier further - remove the week 5 loss to CTC (52-17 / 35 point swing) and the next biggest win the Yeti had during the season (week 7 against BER 17-6 / 11 point swing) and the PF/PA is 275/251. Adjust for the schedule - dividing each by 12 - and it becomes 367/335.
I'll be the first to acknowledge the Yeti offense on paper was anemic. But when you factor in the two largest PD swing games in losses by any of the playoff teams it skews the stats to a horrible level. Outside of those two losses only one Yeti loss was by 2 or more touchdowns (week 14 to HON 34-10). We won close games and lost close games.
For reference and transparency, here's how the other playoff (or near playoff) teams performed:
HON (+119/+7.4375pg) missing their 2 highest, 2 lowest outlier games was 438/342 (+96/+8pg). Adjusting for average outcomes in those 4 discarded games and they're 584/438(+146/+9.125pg).
AUS (+11/+0.6875pg) missing their 2 highest, 2 lowest outlier games was 404/400 (+4/+0.33pg). Adjusting for average outcomes in those 4 discarded games and they're 538/533 (+5/+0.3125pg).
AZ (+42/+2.625pg) missing their 2 highest, 2 lowest outlier games was 333/286 (+47/+3.92pg). Adjusting for average outcomes in those 4 discarded games and they're 444/381 (+63/+3.9375pg).
BAL (+40/+2.5pg) missing their 2 highest, 2 lowest outlier games was 390/361 (+31/+2.58pg). Adjusting for average outcomes in those 4 discarded games and they're 520/481 (+39/+2.4375).
SAR (+21/+1.3125pg) missing their 2 highest, 2 lowest outlier games was 414/400 (+14/+1.17pg). Adjusting for average outcomes in those 4 discarded games and they're 552/533 (+19/+1.1875pg).
And for an even larger sample, BER (-12/-0.75pg) missing their 2 highest, 2 lowest outlier games was 379/381 (-2/-0.17pg). Adjusting for average outcomes in those 4 discarded games and they're 505/508 (-3/-0.1875pg).
Bringing down the Yeti to keep this clear, missing their 2 highest, 2 lowest games is 367/335 (+32/+2.67pg). Adding average outcomes back in, 489/446 (+43/+2.6875).
How do they all compare from actual outcome to outcomes adjusted for more normal, median outcomes:
HON: +27/+1.6875pg
AUS: -6/-0.375pg
AZ: +21/+1.3125pg
BAL: -1/-0.0625pg
SAR: -2/-0.125pg
BER: +9/+0.5625pg
COL: +51/+3.1875pg
Who had the biggest improvement? COL. What does this show (in my opinion)? That when you account for most "normal" outcomes from their sample of games, COL had a positive PD overall and per game, explaining how they continued to win games despite ending the season with a negative point differential. When push came to shove, discarding outliers both ways, COL was a positive team. If you only adjust by one game, their average outcome was a tie. Their overall statistics - as well as those of AZ, BER, and HON - were negatively skewed by outlier games. On the other hand, SAR and AUS (ironically the Ultimus matchup) were positively skewed by outlier games.
Weird seasons happen. The sim isn't linear and doesn't make much logical sense. Another ironic example of this? AUS is the second-worst regular season Ultimus winner ever. The worst since S25, which if I'm correct was the old sim version. That doesn't negative Austin's title at all - they won the regular season games, playoff games, and final game to get there and they absolutely deserve to have their banner at the top of the site right now.
Austin had an +11 PD for the regular season, a positive 0.6875 per game.
S44 HON had a +172, a positive 10.75 per game.
S43 BAL had a +170, a positive 10.625 per game.
S42 AZ had a +160, a positive 10 per game.
S41 CTC had a +160, a positive 10 per game.
S40 AZ had a +260, a positive 16.25 per game.
S39 YKW had a +289, a positive 18.0625 per game.
S38 AZ had a +132, a positive 8.25 per game.
S37 AZ had a +106, a posiive 6.625 per game.
S36 HON had a +112, a positive 7 per game.
S35 HON had a +154, a positive 9.625 per game.
S34 CHI had a +145, a positive 9.0625 per game.
S33 BAL had a +67, a positive 4.1875 per game (also the most recent time before S45 AUS that someone besides a #1 seed won the title).
S32 NYS had a +42, a positive 2.625 per game.
S31 HON had a +33, a positive 2.0625 per game.
S30 SAR had a +73, a positive 4.5625 per game.
S29 NYS had a +43, a positive 2.6875 per game.
S28 YKW had a +74, a positive 4.625 per game.
S27 SAR had a +134, a positive 8.375 per game.
S26 YKW had a +150, a positive 9.375 per game.
S25 SJS had a -16, a negative 0.8125 per game.
S24 SJS had a +34, a positive 2.125 per game.
S23 YKW had a +69, a positive 4.3125 per game.
S22 COL had a +87, a positive 6.69 per game (entering the 13 game per season era).
S21 NOLA had a +114, a positive 8.77 per game.
S20 AUS had a +90, a positive 6.92 per game.
S19 OCO had a +114, a positive 8.77 per game.
S18 OCO had a +130, a positive 10 per game.
S17 OCO had a +86, a positive 6.62 per game.
S16 AZ had a +24, a positive 1.85 per game.
S15 BAL had a +223, a positive 15.93 per game (entering the 14 game per season era).
S14 SJS had a +159, a positive 11.36 per game.
S13 OCO had a +34, a positive 2.43 per game.
S12 OCO had a +116, a positive 8.29 per game.
S11 NOLA had a +124, a positive 8.86 per game.
S10 BAL had a +213, a positive 15.21 per game.
S9 NOLA had a +333, a positive 23.79 per game.
S8 YKW had a +160, a positive 11.43 per game.
S7 PHI had a +123, a positive 8.79 per game.
S6 OCO had a +217, a positive 15.5 per game.
S5 OCO had a +156, a positive 11.14 per game.
S4 OCO had a +183, a positive 13.07 per game.
S3 AZ had a +261, a positive 18.64 per game.
S2 AZ had a +194, a positive 13.86 per game.
S1 AZ had a +73, a positive 5.21 per game.
Of those Ultimus winners, only one had a negative PD (S25 SJS), only one had a sub +1 PD per game (S45 AUS), and only one more had a sub +2 PD per game (S16 AZ). The average PD per game of an ultimus winner over the last 45 seasons was +8.76.
Very weird season. I tried to find an NFL example of a top-seed or super bowl winner losing games by crazy margins to teams that weren't good but its a lot more digging than I have time for - I've gone through super bowl winners and the first weird one I found was the 2018 Eagles losing to the Saints 48-7, but that Saints team went 13-3. Not quite comparable to the Yeti being beaten by huge margins by two non-playoff teams. The 2017 Patriots lost to the Chiefs in week one 42-27. Chiefs went 10-6. Not a huge margin, good team.