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+---- Thread: *Week 4 Power Rankings (/showthread.php?tid=49598)
*Week 4 Power Rankings - ztarwarz - 02-03-2024
14:
Record: 0-4
Point Differential: -7.2 per game
Best Result: 27-26 loss at Austin
Worst Result: 24-10 loss at Chicago
There were arguments for the Hahalua to not be at the very bottom of this list; three of their 4 games have been against teams that should be top tiers in the conference if not the league, who mostly have lost to each other; their point differential isn't the worst in the league and is only a point worse than the fellow winless Second Line, who had an easier schedule; an offense with a peaking RB and 2 WRs over 1000 can't stay this terrible, can it? Heck, Montagne's going to get back over 1000 during the season if he stays active.
But I can't shake that loss to Chicago. The Butchers wouldn't normally find themselves much higher on the list; they gave what would be the worst team in the league by far their only win and have a negative point differential despite a .500 record. But they have looked comfortable in a total of one game: their beatdown of the Hahalua. That seals them at this spot despite having a really tough schedule to start the season. Their next 4 games should be much easier, facing both the Second Line and the Silverbacks, but will also see them face 2 of the 3 unbeaten teams in the league.
13:
Record: 1-3
Point Differential: -12.0 per game
Best Result: 26-17 win vs Chicago
Worst Result: 45-24 loss at Berlin
The Sailfish were legitimately a less comfortable win away from being below a pair of 0-4 teams. If the Chicago game was a single possession result as opposed to multiple possessions, then I'd have them below the Hahalua as well. That's what happens when none of your losses are close or respectable. The Sailfish in back to back weeks let Money Tolliver and Keanu Calhoun dominate them, and in Week 1 might have sealed a Defensive Performance of the Year award for Jordan Hartline with 2 pick sixes. Do we do that award anymore, even? Either way, while the Hahalua are only dealing with a terrible offense along with an above average but not great D, the Sailfish also have offensive problems; ranking in the bottom 4 on both sides of the football is worse than any other team in the league, at least through 4 weeks. Their next section of games will see them face the unbeaten Hawks and Copperheads, but will also see them face fellow 1 win NSFC competition in the Crash and Yeti.
12:
Record: 1-3
Point Differential: -7.0 per game
Best Result: 24-20 win vs Berlin
Worst Result: 38-23 loss vs Yellowknife
I debated in my head whether to swap these next two, they might as well read tied in my head. In the end, I think the Yeti are just a shade worse. Sure, they were barely able to scrape a win out from under the Berlin Fire Salamanders at home, but if I were to compare best and worst results across teams in this low section of the rankings, the Yeti might have the worst pair. Everyone else has at least a close loss to a good team or a comfortable win over a mediocre one. While the big loss to Yellowknife is probably better than the game listed as the worst result for Sarasota, it's more debatable with the Hahalua and definitely worse than the team that I decided to put above them. The Yeti have paired together a bottom 4 passing attack by rating on less attempts than anyone with a worse rating, as well as easily the worst rushing attack in the league (3 yards per carry as a team), and yet still manage to be a worse defense than they are an offense. Granted, at least part of that comes from their average of 3 turnovers per game in their losses.
As for the next segment of games, the Yeti are in perhaps a better position than any other team to climb out of the hole and make a run; they get 3 more games against very beatable competition in the Crash, the Sailfish, and the Silverbacks, all fellow 1 win teams, and due to being in the NSFC end up only a game out of the final wild card spot as we speak. Their last game of the set, away to Arizona, will be tough but that'd still have them at 4-4 which might be enough to have them in a playoff spot.
11:
Record: 0-4
Point Differential: -7.0 per game
Best Result: 21-20 loss vs Austin
Worst Result: 38-30 loss vs New York
Would you believe that I could have put them higher? The worst team of the first half of the decade by far, NOLA has put together a couple spirited games that unfortunately have not led them to any wins. New Orleans hung with the Wraiths, and almost beat the Copperheads, though they weren't really in either their games against the Silverbacks or the Sabercats. The fault can be squarely laid at the 2nd worst defense in the league, letting up over 30 points per game and over 400 yards. Their offense has been above average so far, and has even outgained their defensive woes, entirely due to the most yard heavy passing game in the league. In today's fun with On Pace stats, Octavion Speedings is on pace for over 6000 passing yards! This would give him the most passing yards for a season in league history by over 400, while also giving him the most attempts by 30, finally dethroning the king of "chuck the ball nearly 50 times a game", Mattathias Caliban.
The Second Line's next 4 games are a mixed bag; they've got fellow bottom feeders in the Hahalua for one of the games, a game against a resurgent Arizona team, and a pair of games against .500 opposition in the Otters and Fire Salamanders. I could totally see this team going 3-1 over these next 4 weeks, but that still wouldn't really be enough to get them back into what seems to be a really top heavy ASFC.
10:
Record: 1-3
Point Differential: -9.0 per game
Best Result: 38-30 win at New Orleans
Worst Result: 46-20 loss at Arizona
The big reason I'm giving the Silverbacks a bit of a pass in terms of their point differential is that they've been in all but one of their games. The Arizona loss was a blowout basically from the word go, and is well over half of their negative point differential, but they got back into the Sabercats game for a time, were competitive with the Otters, and really had New Orleans beat by more than the 8 it says on the scoreboard at the end. While by the index page it appears the problem is with the defense, which is bottom 3 to the offense's bottom 5, this is in large part due to the massive amount of turnovers the team has. 6 in the single possession Otters loss, a pair in both the NOLA and Sabercat games, and 5 more in the Arizona debacle, including 2 pick sixes. Heck, Blaine Falco right now is averaging a point per game to the other team in SAFETIES. This team's defense cannot handle another 5+ turnover day.
For the next 4 games, the Silverbacks have pretty smooth sailing; a game at home against the Copperheads, sure, but they've looked very mortal. Besides that, they're facing the Hahalua, the Yeti, and the Butchers, two teams below them on the rankings and one that's not that much higher.
9:
Record: 2-2
Point Differential: -0.8 per game
Best Result: 24-10 win vs Honolulu
Worst Result: 38-24 loss at Cape Town
This team is getting punished, and arguably should be getting punished more stringently, for its schedule. The Butchers have had by far the easiest schedule in the league so far and have managed a negative point differential and a .500 record out of it. The 4 teams they have faced combine for a total of 3 wins. Those 4 teams have a total of 1 win in games not involving the Butchers. They almost gave away the game against the Yeti on a terrible fumble. They lost both of their games by multiple possessions and only were comfortable against the worst team in the league. By record and point differential this should be a team that's at least 2 spots higher. But a 2-2 record with this schedule is too much of a cross to bear.
You might expect their next 4 weeks to be harder. They are, but I still wouldn't call it as hard as this stretch was easy; their cross conference away day being against the Silverbacks slightly balances out a schedule with games against the Fire Salamanders, the Wraiths, and the Hawks. Still, this is the team that could go from in the playoffs, or at least tied, to out of it by multiple games when I do my next update.
8:
Record: 1-3
Point Differential: -2.0 per game
Best Result: 38-24 win vs Butchers
Worst Result: 17-7 loss vs Austin
The Crash are the first team where I feel comfortable saying that their best result is a bigger win than their worst result is a loss. Their best performance, in Week 1, is the single best performance any team has had in the entire bottom 7 of these power rankings. But it is a fact that the Butchers game was their only win, and while they did face stiff competition in the Copperheads and Hawks, they have been held to less than 15 points per game since Week 1. The defense by points is slightly below average, but the offense is bottom 3 at barely over 20 points per game. This can most clearly be tied to the passing offense, which is the worst in the league and is actually less than their rushing offense.
They've got a decent shot at getting back into the playoff hunt if they catch fire; they're facing the Yeti and the Sailfish at home in a battle for biggest loser of the NSFC, along with a game against a mediocre at best Otters squad. The away day to Yellowknife is the one game that should give them a ton of trouble, but a 3-1 record over the next 4 is liable to get them back into the playoff hunt in the conference where they're only a game out so far.
7:
Record: 2-2
Point Differential: -2.7 per game
Best Result: 23-17 win at New York
Worst Result: 26-10 loss vs San Jose
By point differential this is the worst of the 2-2 teams, and worse than the Crash. But there's just something about this team that I want to cut some small amounts of slack. The realistic goal of every average team should be to beat the bad teams and at least challenge the good teams. With the one exception of the San Jose game, the Otters have done that. They have done that with the 2nd worst offense in the league, at 17.8 points per game, the 3rd best defense in the league. They definitely haven't looked pretty doing so, what with needing to come back in the 4th against the Hahalua and letting the Silverbacks come back in the 4th. But a win is a win and surely Lloyd Bannings won't be anywhere near as bad as he has been so far, right? If he rebounds this team could absolutely go to the playoffs.
Up next for the Otters: A 4 game stretch featuring 2 games against bad teams that they should win, and 2 games against good competition they should lose. Because of course. 2-2 is unlikely to be enough to get into the playoff hunt, but they are only a game out as is. Who knows, maybe they finally take the win over the Copperheads.
6:
Record: 2-2
Point Differential: -0.5 per game
Best Result: 45-24 win vs Sarasota
Worst Result: 23-3 loss vs Baltimore
I hesitate to call this team average. They feel below average, despite having a power ranking above average. This team's faced all three 1-3 NSFC teams, along with the Hawks. In the Hawks game, they got blown out; they collapsed in the 4th and gave the Yeti that team's only win on the season thus far; they had to come back and beat the Crash by one point at home; both in offense and defense they rank as slightly below average. Somehow that makes for the 6th best team in the league. By yards, this is the best pass defense and overall defense in the league; at least some of that probably comes down to scheduling, though they did hold the Hawks to only 120 passing yards on 21 attempts. They held every team except the Yeti below 6 yards per attempt. I can't say for certain that's likely to continue, though. 3/4ths of their secondary is below 1000 TPE and the one who is above barely is. They also have the least amount of TPE on defense of any team in the league, and a really bad linebacking corp that could spell their doom in the future.
The next 4 games are going to be very revelatory, playing both 3-1 teams in the Wraiths and Outlaws will be the kind of challenge that this team did not rise to the first time, but if they continue to beat the teams they should then they could wind up with wins over both the Second Line and Butchers despite playing away. That would likely be enough, especially with the head to head win, to keep this team at the wild card spot.
5:
Record: 4-0
Point Differential: +3.7 per game
Best Result: 37-34 win vs Arizona
Worst Result: 27-26 win vs Honolulu
There's a clear top 5 in the league right now; 5 teams who have won every game that doesn't involve games in between themselves and have lost at most one game apiece. The Copperheads, at least to me, appear to be the weak link among those 5, with what might be the two worst performances of any team in this group; they also have a 1 point win at New Orleans, and both of those results to me are worse than the actual losses among this top 5. The Copperheads boast the 4th best offense and the 5th best defense, but that's not actually all that impressive up here; the 4.5 average placement is the worst among any team in this group. The final nail in the coffin is the combination of lacking opposition and lacking convincing wins; their only good win was beating the Crash by 10 and Arizona was the one team they faced above that 8 spot.
The next 4 games should be a bit rougher as well; they face both the Sabercats at home and the Otters away. And if any team has shown the capacity to lose to a team like the Sailfish or the Silverbacks without having already done so, it's the Copperheads. It wouldn't be the biggest shock in league history to see this team go from a 4-0 first quarter to a 1-3 or even 0-4 second quarter of the season; they've just been too shaky in victory so far.
4:
Record: 3-1
Point Differential: +9.3 per game
Best Result: 38-23 win at Colorado
Worst Result: 20-16 loss vs Baltimore
Yellowknife is what you get if you gave the Butchers' schedule (just swap the 0-4 team from the ASFC) to a team who could beat up on it like they should have. Also, not getting blown out in their matchup against the Hawks helps. Suffice to say, the Wraiths do have a bit of a problem that could rear its ugly head in a minute, their schedule for their next 4 games is far harder than what they just had, but it's impossible not to have them at least this high with the best offense in the league, the 7th best defense, and a point differential that blows everyone below this point out of the water. Their only somewhat poor performance was letting the Second Line hang around for a while at home. Should we expect this to continue over the course of the season? Honestly, probably not; the Wraiths have the 2nd least offensive TPE in the league (albeit with only 2 OLinemen), and even so far are 4th to last in terms of yards per game. The big issue for the team's offense for the future is the complete lack of good WRs. The QB is good but unlikely to continue to make something out of nothing, so if I were to pick a team who should fall off by TPE in this group, it's definitely the Wraiths.
Their next 4 games arguably include no games as easy as any of their games they've had so far minus the Hawks, with a home game against the Crash and away games against the Butchers, the Fire Salamanders, and the Sabercats. That being said, it's arguably more important to blow out your weak opposition than to beat your best opposition, so if the Wraiths keep that up then they'll have a shot at the title game.
3:
Record: 3-1
Point Differential: +9.5 per game
Best Result: 46-20 win vs New York
Worst Result: 37-34 loss at Austin
In almost every regard, the Outlaws feel like an upgrade from the Wraiths; slightly better point differential, slightly better results, slightly harder schedule, and slightly better performances on the whole. The Otters game was slightly close, the Austin game was lost in the end, but Honolulu and New York were both unable to do anything in a way we haven't seen often so far this season. If we say that the Hahalua are the team that is near the top of the league in TPE and good enough to be playoff contenders even with the 0-4 start to the season, then I'd argue that the Outlaws managed to pull off a 3-1 record, boasting the 2nd best offense and the 4th best defense, with the hardest schedule in the league, looking mostly dominant all the while. Even with the Hahalua's current status as bottom of this ranking I'd still call this the hardest schedule of any team in the top 5 so far.
So how do the next 4 games look? Pretty easy, actually. They have a tough game vs the Sabercats and an away day to Berlin that could be tricky, but their other two games are should be easy wins at home against the Yeti and Second Line. At worst, a 2-2 record should leave the Outlaws still in the Wild Card spot, and a 3-1 record might give them a 2 game lead for the spot.
2:
Record: 4-0
Point Differential: +11.5 per game
Best Result: 23-3 win at Berlin
Worst Result: 20-16 win at Yellowknife
There's arguments for either team left to be number 1. The Hawks have definitely had the harder schedule, having to face the Wraiths in Yellowknife and Berlin in Berlin are both arguably harder games than the other candidate has had for any of theirs. Boasting the single best defense in the league, letting up only 13 points a game (a record that I'm so sure won't stand that I'd put money on it except for the fact no one would bite) while still admirably ranking 5th in offensive output. Still, if and when the turnovers dry up there could be some problems; this team is last in yards for and only 5th in yards against per game, and has the 2nd worst output in the league in terms of passing yards. Preston Beatz is well past his prime at this point. However, it's hard to argue with a team who has kept its time spent losing in the 2nd half confined to the 3rd quarter and the start of the 4th of the Yeti game and a 4 minute period in the 4th of the Yellowknife game.
How about their next 4 games? They're actually really easy going; they only need to face Orange County and Butchers at home in terms of notables, unless the Hahalua turn on the jets and figure out how to play; the Sailfish away are not likely to trouble this team. Even if they do slip up, the sheer fact that they're 2 games up on the 3rd playoff spot helps a ton.
1:
Record: 4-0
Point Differential: +14.3 per game
Best Result: 26-10 win at Orange County
Worst Result: 24-12 win at New York
Just kidding, it's actually very easy to argue with a team who has had such pedestrian achievements as losing in the 2nd half for about 1.5 quarters of play. Because the Sabercats have only been winning by a single possession for barely more than a full quarter of play in the 2nd half and have been losing for 10 minutes of gametime total in the 2nd half. Sure, the schedule isn't anywhere near as tough as Arizona's or Baltimore's. Their hardest game on paper so far has been away to Orange County. But this is the kind of dominance that if kept up for a full season we will not have seen in half a decade and we've only seen a half dozen of in ISFL history. That beats out the harder schedule in my eyes.
So how do their next 4 games look? Well, a lot harder. If the Hahalua decide to look like projections and not like how they've looked on the field, the Sabercats will have almost the hardest stretch of 4 games imaginable, with a game at home against them followed by away days to Austin and Arizona, then coming back at home against the Wraiths. If they go 4-0 in this next stretch they might not be stopped. If they go 0-4 in this next stretch then this entire article will read very differently, and kind of hilariously.
RE: Week 4 Power Rankings - lock180 - 02-03-2024
*Takes notes*