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+---- Thread: *Does the Preseason Matter? (/showthread.php?tid=49599)
*Does the Preseason Matter? - lock180 - 02-03-2024
No.
It doesn't.
Stop Scrolling.
Fine here you go.
Hey guys I’m back already and this time it isn’t to go sicko mode on all you fools. I have an educational lesson for all of you instead! As I so eloquently put at the top of the page, no preseason does not matter. “But how do you know that President Prime Minister Dictator Darth Sidious General Media King lock180?” Well inquiring mind I have crunched the numbers so let me explain how this process went:
There are 4 preseason games every season (even season 1 had four preseason games) so I allocated a percentage to each scenario (screw ties) which would mean the percentage scale would look something like this:
4-0
80-100%
3-1
60-80%
2-2
40-60%
1-3
20-40%
0-4
0-20%
We are using percentages because we want to see if there is a correlation between regular season records and preseason records so for example if I had a 10-6 record in the regular season how would I know if that correlated with the preseason? Well 10-6 gives us a 62.5% so that would mean I would have expected to have a 3-1 record in the preseason.
Now going further we need to assign a point system to see just how accurate these preseason predictions were so let me continue with this example of a 10-6 record. Say in the preseason Team Bananas went 3-1 and in the regular season went 10-6. That 10-6 record would correlate with a 3-1 record which would mean we would have what I have called “bingo” aka a regular season that was correctly predicted by the preseason.
In a different scenario if Team Bananas went 2-2 in the preseason then that would mean they undervalued their worth and in that case would be given a -1.
If a 1-3 preseason took place it would be -2 and 0-4 would be -3.
The other way would be if in the preseason Team Bananas went 4-0 then they would have overvalued their worth and be given a 1.
In theory if the team played in the regular season how they played in the preseason then they should have bingo’s every season. This obviously did not happen. And below are the results of my pointless study into if preseasons matter.
Second Line 4-0 overvalued by 5 (1 bingo/4)
3-1 overvalued by 11 (1 bingo/8)
2-2 overvalued by 3 (6 bingo/15)
1-3 overvalued by 1 (3 bingo/8)
0-4 undervalued by 2 (2 bingo/5)
13/40 seasons predicted correctly
overvalued by 18
At the top of the list and the most overvalued team in the league is the New Orleans Second Line. Hopefully, this is easier to understand now that you are seeing it but as you can see 4-0 is overvalued by 5 that means they did worse by a total of 5 points in the four seasons they had a 4-0 record. But you can also see that they had 1 bingo in those 4 games meaning they had a record in the regular season that correlated with the 4-0 preseason performance they had. In general, if you aren’t going to hit a bingo you would prefer to be undervalued because that shows that you exceed preseason predictions. As you can see here though NOLA often performs very well in the preseason but fumbles the bag in the regular season. With a 32.5% chance of a bingo (13/40 seasons) NOLA sits right around the average seasons predicted that I will reveal at the end of the article.
Yeti 4-0 overvalued by 8 (1 bingo/5)
3-1 overvalued by 10 (4 bingo/11)
2-2 overvalued by 4 (6 bingo/14)
1-3 undervalued by 5 (3 bingo/14)
0-4 correctly valued (1 bingo/1)
15/45 seasons predicted correctly
overvalued by 17
The Yeti are another team that perform extremely well in the preseason but poorly in the regular season but there is another thing to point out with them as we have our first “correctly valued” record. With 1 season of being 0-4 and 1 bingo that is a 100% accuracy meaning next season the Yeti go 0-4 in the preseason you can guarantee that they will be in the 0-20% regular season win percentage column.
Hawks 4-0 overvalued by 16 (0 bingo/8)
3-1 overvalued by 5 (3 bingo/13)
2-2 correctly valued (3 bingo/7)
1-3 undervalued by 7 (5 bingo/12)
0-4 undervalued by 3 (3 bingo/5)
14/45 seasons predicted correctly
overvalued by 11
Still pretty overvalued mainly due to having 8 seasons of going 4-0 in the preseason the Hawks show they often overperform in the preseason as well.
Hahalua 4-0 overvalued by 9 (0 bingo/4)
3-1 overvalued by 2 (2 bingo/5)
2-2 undervalued by 1 (4 bingo/9)
1-3 undervalued by 2 (0 bingo/5)
0-4 correctly valued (1 bingo/1)
7/24 seasons predicted correctly
overvalued by 8
We finally reach single digit overvalued teams with the Hahalua who are really brought down by extreme overperforming in the 4-0 preseason department. The 3-1 and 2-2 preseasons are fairly accurate though and we have another correctly valued 0-4 preseason record.
Liberty 4-0 overvalued by 1 (0 bingo/1)
3-1 overvalued by 8 (1 bingo/9)
2-2 overvalued by 5 (5 bingo/13)
1-3 undervalued by 3 (5 bingo/10)
0-4 undervalued by 7 (0 bingo/4)
11/37 seasons predicted correctly
overvalued by 4
The now rebranded Liberty showed that they were pretty even in making up for an overvalued season with an undervalued season the next but we are getting closer and closer to a team that is accurate in predicting their seasons.
*Since the Crash are a “different” team they are listed separately from the Liberty
Copperheads 4-0 overvalued by 3 (0 bingo/2)
3-1 overvalued by 3 (3 bingo/6)
2-2 overvalued by 4 (8 bingo/16)
1-3 undervalued by 5 (0 bingo/3)
0-4 undervalued by 3 (1 bingo/3)
12/30 seasons predicted correctly
overvalued by 2
We are now very close to a team being correctly valued with the Copperheads impressively only overvalued by 2 and a very accurate 8/16 predictions in preseasons where they went 2-2
Sabercats 4-0 overvalued by 6 (0 bingo/3)
3-1 overvalued by 4 (2 bingo/5)
2-2 overvalued by 8 (5 bingo/15)
1-3 undervalued by 13 (6 bingo/17)
0-4 undervalued by 4 (2 bingo/5)
15/45 seasons predicted correctly
overvalued by 1
For one of the founding teams to be only overvalued by 1 is nothing short of a miracle but there is a big factor in why this is the case and it is because of the 1-3 record combatting all of the other records above it. While there are 15 bingo’s which is an impressive amount the undervalued seasons of 1-3 completely wipeout the overvalued 2-2 and 3-1 preseason.
(image) Legion (image)
4-0 correctly valued (0 bingo/0)
3-1 correctly valued(0 bingo/0)
2-2 correctly valued (0 bingo/0)
1-3 overvalued by 1 (1 bingo/2)
0-4 undervalued by 1 (1 bingo/2)
2/4 seasons predicted correctly
correctly valued
Love em or hate em (hate them) the Legion knew their place in the league. In their four year history the preseason correctly predicted the regular season 2 times and the other two times the preseason records were only off by 1 win making the Legion the ONLY team to be correctly valued by their preseason games.
Butchers 4-0 overvalued by 8 (0 bingo/2)
3-1 overvalued by 2 (2 bingo/5)
2-2 undervalued by 3 (1 bingo/8)
1-3 correctly valued (4 bingo/11)
0-4 undervalued by 9 (0 bingo/4)
7/30 seasons predicted correctly
undervalued by 2
We now move on to teams that tend to underperform in the preseason and surprise when it comes to the regular season and the first team to meet that criteria is the Butchers. To be correctly valued in the 1-3 preseasons despite 11 seasons with that record is an impressive feat.
Crash 4-0 overvalued by 3 (0 bingo/2)
3-1 correctly valued (0 bingo/2)
2-2 undervalued by 2 (0 bingo/2)
1-3 undervalued by 3 (0 bingo/1)
0-4 correctly valued (0 bingo/0)
0/7 seasons predicted correctly
undervalued by 2
The Crash don’t have a lot of history but are yet to follow the trend of their preseason predictions as they are 0/7 in successfully predicting their season. Combine them with the Liberty and the joint team would be overvalued by 2 which is impressive for what would be a 45 season team.
Silverbacks 4-0 overvalued by 3 (0 bingo/1)
3-1 overvalued by 4 (1 bingo/4)
2-2 undervalued by 5 (3 bingo/9)
1-3 undervalued by 3 (3 bingo/5)
0-4 undervalued by 3 (0 bingo/2)
7/21 seasons predicted correctly
undervalued by 4
The Silverbacks are a near perfect model of the overall averages of the teams when put together as I will show after getting through the remaining teams.
Sailfish 4-0 overvalued by 3 (0 bingo/2)
3-1 overvalued by 4 (5 bingo/9)
2-2 undervalued by 5 (3 bingo/8)
1-3 undervalued by 6 (0 bingo/5)
0-4 correctly valued (0 bingo/0)
8/24 seasons predicted correctly
undervalued by 5
Sailfish are actually fairly good at predicting 3-1 seasons going 5/9 in correctly predicting those seasons. Another tidbit about the Sailfish is that they have NEVER gone 0-4 in the preseason.
Fire Salamanders 4-0 overvalued by 1 (0 bingo/1)
3-1 overvalued by 3 (0 bingo/3)
2-2 correctly valued (3 bingo/7)
1-3 undervalued by 5 (2 bingo/7)
0-4 undervalued by 5 (1 bingo/3)
6/21 seasons predicted correctly
undervalued by 6
Berlin is another fairly standard example of how teams tend to perform based on their preseason record. Another thing that should be mentioned is the more poor performances you have in the preseason the more likely you are to exceed those expectations in the regular season which is a trend I’m sure you have seen if you have been going through each team (and vice versa for performing well in the preseason).
Otters 4-0 overvalued by 4 (0 bingo/2)
3-1 overvalued by 5 (7 bingo/13)
2-2 undervalued by 2 (9 bingo/20)
1-3 undervalued by 9 (0 bingo/6)
0-4 undervalued by 7(0 bingo/4)
16/45 seasons predicted correctly
undervalued by 9
The Otters are pretty good at predicting 2-2 seasons but severely underestimate their abilities in 1-3 and 0-4 seasons going 0-10 on getting bingo’s and undervaluing themselves by 16 in that range.
Wraiths 4-0 overvalued by 2 (0 bingo/2)
3-1 overvalued by 9 (6 bingo/20)
2-2 undervalued by 1 (4 bingo/10)
1-3 undervalued by 15 (2 bingo/10)
0-4 undervalued by 5 (0 bingo/3)
12/45 seasons predicted correctly
undervalued by 10
The Wraiths are one of only two teams to have a double digit underestimation of their team which is impressive considering they have played nearly double the amount of games over .500 than under and aren’t particularly accurate with bingo’s either.
Outlaws 4-0 overvalued by 9 (1 bingo/6)
3-1 overvalued by 1 (4 bingo/11)
2-2 undervalued by 2 (7 bingo/12)
1-3 undervalued by 18 (3 bingo/13)
0-4 undervalued by 6 (0 bingo/3)
15/45 seasons predicted correctly
undervalued by 16
The other team probably doesn’t surprise many of you as the Outlaws are a dominant force in the regular season constantly having above .500 seasons they overperform their 1-3 preseason predictions by a remarkable 18 points and only underperform 3-1 seasons by 1 point which is a crazy tandem.
And we have finally arrived at our ISFL preseason experiment results:
Totals
4-0 overvalued by 81 (3 bingo/45)
7% odds of predicting the regular season
3-1 overvalued by 71 (41 bingo/124)
33% odds of predicting the regular season
2-2 overvalued by 2 (67 bingo/165)
40% odds of predicting the regular season
1-3 undervalued by 92 (37 bingo/129)
28% odds of predicting the regular season
0-4 undervalued by 55 (12 bingo/45)
26% odds of predicting the regular season
160/508 seasons predicted correctly
32% odds of predicting the regular season
overvalued by 7
It’s hard to live up to expectations as these numbers show. If you secure yourself a 4-0 preseason DO NOT expect to perform that well in the regular season as only 7% of teams have been able to keep those expectations intact. On the flip side, you should be worried if you get an 0-4 preseason record as you’ve got a little over a 25% chance of staying in the death zone. The most accurate range is obviously the 2-2 preseason which is correct around 40% of the time.
So where does that leave us?
Well, with all the numbers counted up and each record contradicting themselves teams only underperform in the regular season by 7 points which is quite impressive. What isn’t as impressive is in 508 total “seasons” only 160 have turned out to be correct, a measly 32% of the time your preseason results will give you an accurate picture of your team.
So was all this research worth it? Nope. But here it is for the world to see.
RE: Does the Preseason Matter? - JuOSu - 02-05-2024
Great research!