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*ISFL Dominator Power Rankings - caleb.grim - 02-04-2024
Hello everyone! With the regular season a quarter of the way complete already, it’s time to begin the Dominator Power Rankings again! With this being the first edition of the season, I will lay out the process for calculating these rankings once again. (There are some slight tweaks this time around.) A reminder that these rankings try to quantify each team’s level of dominance while taking into account the quality of an opponent.
So now, if you want to read some math, stay with me for a moment, otherwise you can skip on down to the rankings!
How Dominator Power Rankings are Calculated
As the name suggests, the main idea behind the Dominator Power Rankings is to determine how dominant a team has been during their games. The thought process being that teams that dominate on a more regular basis are teams to be feared and teams that could make a solid playoff run. In my first season (S44) running these numbers, the top 6 teams in my end of season Dominator Power Rankings were the six playoff teams. Last season however was not so clean as the top three teams were in the playoffs but so were teams 9 through 11.
New this season, every second of each game for a team is put into one of 11 categories:
Down Three Plus Scores (17+ points)
Down Two Touchdowns (12-16 points)
Down a Touchdown and a Field Goal (9-11 points)
Down One Touchdown (4-8 points)
Done One Field Goal (1-3 points)
Tied
Up One Field Goal (1-3 points)
Up One Touchdown (4-8 points)
Up a Touchdown and a Field Goal (9-11 points)
Up Two Touchdowns (12-16 points)
Up Three Plus Scores (17+ points)
Once the categorization has taken place, each second in a category is given a score from -2.5 (down three plus scores) up to 2.5 (up three plus scores) in increments of 0.5. Then an average is taken of these scores from each quarter for a team to get a “Quarter Ranking”. All games played contribute to these quarter rankings and give each team a running score. These individual quarter rankings can range from -2.5 to 2.5.
Of course, it’s more important to be ahead at the end of the game. So the quarter 1 score is given a weight of 1, the quarter 2 score is given a weight of 2, the quarter 3 score is given a weight of 3, and the quarter 4 score is given a weight of 4. Then each team’s final Dominator Score is the weighted sum of all four quarters. With this set up, a team’s score can be anywhere from -25 to 25.
Teams then also get bonuses for wins and penalties for losses that vary based on the quality of the opponent. The extra scores will be calculated as follows: a bonus will be given equal to the number of wins times the winning percentage of the opponents who were beaten and a penalty will be given equal to the number of losses times the losing percentage of the opponents who were victorious. Basically, a win is worth a bonus between 0 and 1 equal to the winning percentage of the opponent and a loss is worth a penalty between -1 and 0 equal to the losing percentage of the opponent.
Onto the rankings!
ISFL Dominator Power Rankings
S46 - Week 4
14.
New Orleans Secondline (0-4)Preseason Rank: 11th
Dominator Score: -11.686
% of Time Winning: 21.60%
% of Time Losing: 64.37%
The Secondline find themselves starting the season as one of two winless teams. While the Secondline have been putting up stellar passing numbers on offense, their run game is invisible. They have run the ball on only 20.6% of their plays (the second lowest rate in the league). Why? Their defense has been the least efficient defense in the ISFL and is forcing the offense to play from behind. The Secondline pass defense is giving up 6.47 yards per dropback while the rushing defense is giving up 5.82 yards per attempt. Both of these marks are worst in the league. If New Orleans wants to show the league that this year is going to be different, the defense has to pick it up.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Score: 0-16 (7th in ASFC)
13.
New York Silverbacks (1-3)Preseason Rank: 8th
Dominator Score: -9.610
% of Time Winning: 16.41%
% of Time Losing: 69.84%
Down 17-0. Down 17-3. Up 28-14. Down 32-3. These have been the scores at halftime for the Silverbacks. How many games do you think they won? The one game when they had the lead. Prone to mistakes, New York has a league worst 15 giveaways (6 more than Colorado who has the second most) leading to a -8 turnover differential. You can’t expect to win many games playing like that. On top of that, the Silverback run defense has been giving up over 5 yards per carry. Teams have been able to run out the clock against them in the second half after building up big leads. Looking for positives, New York is tied for the top defensive 3rd down conversion percentage only allowing a first down on 26.5% of opponents’ attempts.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Score: 2-14 (6th in ASFC)
12.
Sarasota Sailfish (1-3)Preseason Rank: 4th
Dominator Score: -7.823
% of Time Winning: 34.01%
% of Time Losing: 53.40%
The Sailfish need to find ways to not fall apart after halftime. Giving up a league high 72 points in the second half, Sarasota seems to be able to keep the score close for a while before things completely fall apart. Their offense has been solid, averaging over 6 yards per dropback and allowing sacks at only a 5.6% rate (the lowest in the ISFL). However, they haven’t been able to turn this success into points with drives often stalling before reaching the end zone. In fact, K Swantavius King (@Yeenoghu) leads the league with 6 field goals under 30 yards. On defense, much like the teams already mentioned, Sarasota can’t stop the run. When you give up 5.34 yards per carry, it’s hard to come back once you fall behind.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Score: 2-14 (7th in NSFC)
11.
Colorado Yeti (1-3)Preseason Rank: 7th
Dominator Score: -5.229
% of Time Winning: 41.11%
% of Time Losing: 50.55%
Turnovers have been the name of the game for the Colorado Yeti so far this season. In their three losses: 9 turnovers. In their one win: 0 turnovers. With a defense that excels at stopping the run (allowing a league low 2.74 yards per attempt), the Yeti offense needs to take care of the ball and capitalize on opportunities for points in order to have a chance to turn the season around. The offense also needs to sustain drives as they have only converted on 23.1% of their 3rd downs. On the plus side, the offense has been able to generate quite a few long touchdowns, particularly their two wideouts National Treasure (@electrictree) and NCADV RAINN (@IsaStarcrossed) with three scores of 70 yards or more.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Score: 4-12 (6th in NSFC)
10.
Honolulu Hahalua (0-4)Preseason Rank: 3rd
Dominator Score: -5.122
% of Time Winning: 18.85%
% of Time Losing: 49.13%
Expected to be competing for an Ultimus berth by many, the Hahalua have been unable to get anything going offensively up to this point. Only three offensive touchdowns in four games is not the recipe for success. The offense just hasn’t done their part. They are averaging a league low 15 points per game, are completing a league low 56.7% of their passes, and have often forgotten the run game (rush percentage at 26.9%). So why aren’t they at the bottom of these rankings? One can point to some moderate success on defense as they lead the ISFL in sacks and sack rate. But even then, the defense has been very inefficient otherwise, allowing the highest completion percentage and worst 3rd down conversion rate.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Score: 4-12 (5th in ASFC)
9.
Orange County Otters (2-2)Preseason Rank: 1st
Dominator Score: -2.818
% of Time Winning: 41.97%
% of Time Losing: 44.40%
The Otters have a roster flush with talent and were my pick to top the ISFL this season. And the defense has held up its side of the bargain. The Orange County defense has forced the second most turnovers (9), been solid against the run (3.49 yards per attempt), and not allowed a lot of points (20.5 ppg). Most of the Otters’ issues have stemmed from their passing game. They are averaging only 4.59 yards per dropback (2nd worst behind Cape Town) yet have ignored the running game at a worrying rate, calling running plays only 27.7% of the time. The offense has also lacked explosive plays and hasn’t scored more than 23 points in a single game. Are the Otters just working through their process for a late season run? Or were expectations too high coming into the season?
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Score: 8-8 (4th in ASFC)
8.
Chicago Butchers (2-2)Preseason Rank: 9th
Dominator Score: -2.021
% of Time Winning: 32.49%
% of Time Losing: 38.24%
The Butchers are a team that is difficult to figure out. After a bad opening loss to Cape Town, the Butchers have quietly put together a few solid games to climb back to .500. A lot of the team's success can be tied to the strong connection between QB Painted Penguin (@Painted) and WR Sem’ga Nah’sim (@TheCC). Nah’sim leads the ISFL with 5 receiving touchdowns while Penguin is tied for the league lead with 9 passing touchdowns. This connection has been successful despite the fact that the Chicago offensive line has given up sacks at the highest rate (12.4% of dropbacks). The defense has been middle of the pack in most metrics though they have struggled to get after the quarterback (7.5% sack rate). It is yet to be seen if the Butchers are more like the team we have seen the last two weeks or the team that was blown out by the Crash.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Score: 8-8 (3rd in NSFC)
7.
Cape Town Crash (1-3)Preseason Rank: 12th
Dominator Score: -0.141
% of Time Winning: 39.47%
% of Time Losing: 42.21%
There was no bigger story after week one than Thor Bǫllrsveifla’s (@Thor) ISFL debut. To those who missed it, take a look at this stat line: 20-29 for 208 yards passing with 2 TD and 1 INT along with 127 yards rushing for 3 TD. However, in the three losses since then Bǫllrsveifla is 56-93 for 455 yards passing with 3 TD and 2 INT with only 54 yards rushing. Though Nakiri Ayame (@ValorX77) has picked up the slack and is the ISFL’s leading rusher. The combination of those two easily puts the Crash as the top rushing team in the league. And they lean into that too, running the ball on 49.0% of offensive plays. Part of this is out of necessity as the passing game is last in the league in a lot of metrics including averaging only 4.37 yards per dropback (almost a full yard less than their average on running plays). Unfortunately, this unique strategy has not led to much winning.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Score: 7-9 (5th in NSFC)
6.
Berlin Fire Salamanders (2-2)Preseason Rank: 14th
Dominator Score: 0.170
% of Time Winning: 43.95%
% of Time Losing: 42.81%
Almost the opposite of their rival Cape Town, the Fire Salamanders have ignored the run game in its entirety, running the ball on only 18.6% of their offensive plays. This has put a lot of pressure on QB Adrian St. Christmas (@nunccoepi), the lowest TPE quarterback in the ISFL. How has he responded? Completing 63.1% of his passes and throwing for 9 touchdowns with only 3 interceptions with a passer rating of 90.8. All in all, a solid performance so far this season. The defense on the other hand has been good in the passing game, allowing only 5.02 yards per dropback (3rd best) and getting off the field by only allowing 3rd down conversions at a 29.1% clip. However, when you are one dimensional on offense, that can lead to situations that are hard to overcome. Hence, the .500 record.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Score: 7-9 (4th in NSFC)
5.
Austin Copperheads (4-0)Preseason Rank: 6th
Dominator Score: 2.037
% of Time Winning: 38.35%
% of Time Losing: 32.29%
How can a team follow their first Ultimus in over 20 seasons led by a rookie quarterback when few people gave them a chance? How about by winning their first four games in S46 with great 4th quarter play, outscoring their opponents 32-13 in the final frame. And the push late in games by the Copperheads has been needed as they have spent 91.8% of gametime in a one-score game this season. You have to wonder what they have done to have the sim bless them so. Maybe you are wondering if this is luck or skill? At any rate, one of the keys to their success has been their ability to convert 3rd downs. Leading the ISFL with a conversation rate of 48.1%, the Copperheads have been able to sustain those late game winning drives.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Score: 12-4 (3rd in ASFC)
4.
Baltimore Hawks (4-0)Preseason Rank: 10th
Dominator Score: 7.482
% of Time Winning: 56.48%
% of Time Losing: 27.19%
You wouldn’t think that the team in last place in total offense would be undefeated after four games. But the Hawks defense has been that good. They are first in points allowed per game (13.0), 3rd Down percentage allowed (26.5%), yards allowed per dropback (4.51), and takeaways (10). They’ve also not allowed an offensive touchdown in two of their four games. All this is happening with a league worst sack rate of 6.3%. It’s just hard to score on Baltimore this season. And that’s a good thing because the offense hasn’t been all that good. They are averaging less than 4 yards per carry on the ground and completing less than 60% of their passes while the offensive line is allowing the second highest sack rate at 11.7%. Though the Hawks offense comes through in the clutch with the 2nd highest 3rd down conversion rate (46.6%) and are a perfect 3 for 3 on 4th downs. The question is, how long can they keep this up?
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Score: 15-1 (1st in NSFC)
3.
Yellowknife Wraiths (3-1)Preseason Rank: 13th
Dominator Score: 9.711
% of Time Winning: 54.72%
% of Time Losing: 28.76%
The Wraiths offense appeared unstoppable through the first three weeks of the season. Maximus Boudreaux (@ZootTX) is on a tear, throwing for 9 touchdowns and 0 interceptions so far this season to supplement star running back Money Tolliver (@jeffie43). Unfortunately, the offense met their match this past week against Baltimore to blemish their perfect start. The advanced statistics back up Yellowknife’s strong offense in which they are 4th in yards per dropback (6.22) and averaging over 4 yards per carry on the ground. They have been finishing drives too having scored a league high 15 touchdowns and with Zenzeroni Xystarch II (@lock180) having to only kick 3 field goals under 30 yards on the season. If you are looking to poke holes in the Wraiths start it is hard to find any. However, they have been the benefit of the most penalties and penalty yards by their opponents. With three straight conference games coming up, the Wraiths have an opportunity to distance themselves from the rest of the conference.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Score: 12-4 (2nd in NSFC)
2.
Arizona Outlaws (3-1)Preseason Rank: 2nd
Dominator Score: 10.282
% of Time Winning: 65.97%
% of Time Losing: 13.26%
The Outlaws are once again one of the better teams in the league and have gotten to this point by playing clean football. They only have a total of 7 penalties for 50 yards through the first 4 games and have only turned once. Add to that an efficient offense both on the ground and through the air and it’s easy to see why Arizona is one of the premier scoring teams early in the season. The defense has allowed a lot of yards but has been able to produce turnovers, creating 7 takeaways so far to go along with 6 4th down stops. The defense has also been able to score points with 2 return touchdowns and a safety already. Last season’s top dominator is back at it again.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Score: 13-3 (2nd in ASFC)
1.
San Jose SaberCats (4-0)Preseason Rank: 5th
Dominator Score: 14.769
% of Time Winning: 69.88%
% of Time Losing: 16.96%
It is difficult to have a better stretch of four games than the SaberCats did this past week. They are first in the league averaging 6.99 yards per dropback. They have given up the least amount of sacks (8) on the season. The tandem of Maple Dogwood (@dogwoodmaple) and Kit Fisto (@Pvtpenne) have averaged 5.00 yards per carry (second only to Cape Town). On defense, they are only allowing 4.99 yards per dropback (2nd) and 2.89 yards per carry on the ground (also 2nd). Their turnover differential is also at +3. In other words, San Jose has dominated play so far and deserve the top spot in the dominator rankings. They’ve done all this despite a league worst 27 penalties for 245 yards. While it is unrealistic to think they can go the whole season undefeated, no one is beating them if they keep up this level of dominance.
Season Prediction Based on Dominator Score: 16-0 (1st in ASFC)
Way to Early Playoff Predictions
ASFC Wildcard
over NSFC Wildcard
over ASFC Conference Championship
over NSFC Conference Championship
over Ultimus XLVI
over That’s it for this edition of Dominator Power Rankings. Let me know what you think of your team below!
RE: ISFL Dominator Power Rankings - wizard_literal - 02-04-2024
Why doesn't New York just not turn the ball over? Are they stupid?
Kidding of course! Love this media series as always keep it up!
RE: ISFL Dominator Power Rankings - Pvtpenne - 02-04-2024
Personally I think we should just end the season and hand out the Ultimus based on this article
RE: ISFL Dominator Power Rankings - soevil - 02-04-2024
Nah’sim (@“TheCC”) is just reaping the benefit of Morley always being double covered. His and Penguins relationship isn’t special.
RE: ISFL Dominator Power Rankings - Frostbite - 02-04-2024
If the league standings were based on dominator rankings SJS’s 3 season run is an all timer
RE: ISFL Dominator Power Rankings - swoosh - 02-04-2024
@Muford would never let me hear the end of it.
RE: ISFL Dominator Power Rankings - Chicken Lips - 02-05-2024
NOLA yearns for 7th place