+- International Simulation Football League (https://forums.sim-football.com)
+-- Forum: Community (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=5)
+--- Forum: Media (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=37)
+---- Forum: Graded Articles (https://forums.sim-football.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=38)
+---- Thread: *DL Prospectus Ep. 1 (/showthread.php?tid=49625)
*DL Prospectus Ep. 1 - oknom - 02-06-2024
Well well well, stupid ole me was curious about ISFL team needs on the D line and now here I am with a whole spreadsheet and media writeup. When will I learn? Never, because the spreadsheets look more like work in the office than anything on the forum.
Disclaimer – I say DL a lot in this post. I don’t mean @DL14, I mean defensive line. Team needs for DL14 are out of scope, and they are obviously the best candidate for anyone needing a DL14.
First let me lay out why I would even go down this path. This past S46 DSFL draft had a total of 67 picks, quite large for most draft classes. Picks 2 and 3 were both DL players, as well as pick 9 just outside the first round. In total there are 16 DE or DT’s in this draft class for close to 25% of all players. So, this is a relatively large class, with a relatively large amount of DL players, including a few active and higher earning users. Also, my player is a DE, but all the above makes this sound less self-serving. According to @ckroyal92's article, about 37% of the S47 draft class will be IA by the end of S46. This would bring the active player count down to about 42 total, and an estimated 10 DL prospects. Now those are estimates, and the DL prospect pool could be hit disproportionately better or worse than the rest of the population.
S46 for the DSFL has not gotten underway yet at the time of writing, so this piece is going to be focused on what teams at the ISFL level are in need of some DL prospects. Once there have been some DSFL games and some more updates are processed, there can be an update or comparison to where prospects may land. That will also give some time for the ISFL teams to play some games and give us all a better idea of draft position.
DL Prospectus Sheet
Linked is the spreadsheet where I did my analysis, but it’s all a manual effort. I’m not yet at @lemonoppy levels of data supremacy. But I’m hoping with his new draft sheets and my analysis here on the DL prospects, everyone ends up more informed for the S47 draft. The spreadsheet has everything Ill cover below, but each attribute can be looked at individually. Not all teams are going to use the same data to make their decisions, so I think it’s important to lay out each slice of the data below.
DL Headcount
With the various defensive formations available and being able to play people out of position, not all ISFL teams are at the same DL headcounts. I don’t know that I’m smart enough to know whether any of these teams are running an unusual defense that allows for less than 3 or more than 4 D-line, but that is something that could explain CHI and ARI’s DL headcount.
5 DL -
4 DL –
3 DL –
Rostered DL is not really enough to predict where the S47 prospects will go though. We need to look at how many DL prospects each team has sent down to the DSFL as well.
5 DL + prospects -
4 DL + prospects –
3 DL + prospects –
This helps create a clearer picture, especially in ARI’s case with 2 prospects and 2 rostered DL putting them on par with the rest of the league. I wouldn’t automatically say every team that’s sitting at 3 DL + prospects is a slam dunk to draft another in the S47 draft though. Let’s look at some more attributes to fine tune this a little more.
Recent Draft History
This is probably one of the worst indicators for draft need out of everything I’m looking at today, but I still thought it would be helpful. The S46 class contained only 3 DL prospects, with D’Jasper Probincrux being the only callup to Berlin for S46. The S45 draft class had 5 total DL prospects, with only 1 prospect still remaining down in the DSFL for S46. This tells me that DL prospects are most likely only playing 2 seasons down in the DSFL, with equally small chances to play 1 season or 3 seasons down.
DL Prospects Drafted
S46 Draft S45 Draft
ARI 1 1
AUS 0 1
BAL 0 0
BER 1 0
CHI 0 1
COL 0 0
CTC 0 0
HON 1 0
NOLA 0 0
NYS 0 0
OCO 0 1
SAR 0 0
SJS 0 0
YKW 1 1
Team Need – Low Tier
These teams all have a combination of either low needs on the D-Line or have recently invested some draft capital into the position and are letting that investment grow. Most of these teams are not going to have the DL hit hard by regression next year either, so less of a clock than other teams. Each team except YKW is actually in the bottom half of DL average TPE, which goes to show that their players are younger and working on growing their TPE totals. That doesn’t really mean they need prospects ASAP, just that their roster needs time to fill their shoes. YKW is in the top half of average TPE, but they have a rostered S45 lineman in Emerson Bigguns and a prospect ready for the callup as well in Sergei Nunkanblok. If there is one team I would bet on to draft a DL prospect in the S46 draft out of this group it would be CHI. This is kind of odd, since CHI has the most rostered D-lineman in the ISFL right now. But with GOAT TANNK and Joseph Reed both in regression next year, they could conceivably take a DL prospect now. CHI lets the prospect earn for another year or longer, and then makes the callup when their core has regressed further. May not be a very big need for the Butchers though, especially considering they are paying 5 linemen already!
Team Need – Mid Tier
These three teams have one foot on each side of the line when it comes to need vs strength. BAL and ARI will both have two players regressing next year. BAL however has 4 linemen rostered, whereas ARI has a prospect drafted just last year. SAR just doesn’t have a need here as they are 5th in average TPE on the DL, and only have 1 player regressing next year. They don’t have any prospects though, so I could see them taking one this draft just to set aside for the future. Similar to CHI’s case above though, I don’t think this would be an urgent need for the Sailfish.
Team Need – High
One thing in common for all three of these teams: no DL prospects. CTC is third lowest in average TPE on the DL and one of their three lineman will start to regress next year. They may look 1-2 seasons out at a prospect. AUS is middle of the pack TPE wise, but they have a aging line with 2/3 players regressing next year. Regression is probably the bigger issue for AUS than it is for SJS or CTC.
Team Need – Highest
Both the Silverbacks and the Yeti will have two players regressing on their D-lines next year. NYS are sitting at 2nd in average TPE whereas COL are sitting and 12th. Neither team has a prospect in the pipeline, and neither team has drafted a DL player in the last two drafts. Besides being on opposite points on the average TPE scale, the only other difference between these two teams’ defensive lines is that COL has 4 rostered players to NYS’s 4. Each team also has one of their regressing players unsigned for S47. I predict both teams taking a DL in this draft, but whoever takes one first will be dependent on the final standings. I’ve written and changed my mind three times on which of these two teams really has the biggest need for DL. My final say is that its COL. Even though COL has 4 players vs NYS’s 3, NYS has a large TPE lead that isn’t going to immediately evaporate to regression. Those players can play for awhile longer. If COL doesn’t resign their free agent D-lineman and goes down to 3 players next year, that’s all the more reason for them to draft a replacement now.
I’d like to do a follow up on the DL prospects once some more DSFL games have completed. It’s tough to tell with only a couple updates into the season who is a good prospect for the draft.
RE: DL Prospectus Ep. 1 - Amkamkamk - 02-06-2024
Do we further the Ducks to Silverback connection? Is Dunkler going to further the Big Apple Agenda?
Great write up!