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*ISFL Dominator Power Rankings - caleb.grim - 02-10-2024
Hello everyone! It’s time for another edition of Dominator Power Rankings! To those unfamiliar, you can see how these rankings are calculated here.
Previous Editions: Week 4
Almost at the halfway point in the season and with the flurry of trades occurring over the past week, we’ll also take a dive into which teams should be buying pieces to push for the Ultimus and which teams should be selling with a look toward next season (all based on Dominator scores of course!)
A new part to these rankings that I have included are Dominator’s Expected Wins. I will put the method behind the calculations below but if that doesn’t interest you, please skip down to the rankings!
Dominator’s Expected Wins - An Introduction
As we look into a team’s remaining schedule, you can compare their Dominator scores. To figure out a “win probability”, I looked at the difference of the scores with an increase to the home team’s score by 2.250 (.25 times 9 games remaining to account for the fact that we have a small data set and we should be favoring the home team slightly). Then each 0.5 difference in this score would increase the favorite’s win percentage by 1%. For instance, the next game up is Colorado at Arizona. The difference between their dominator scores (with the home team adjustment) is 23.646 (the biggest possible difference between two teams right now, really pushing the model to its limits). 23.646/0.5 = 47.292. Therefore, Arizona’s win probability would be calculated as 97.292% and Colorado’s win probability would be 2.708%. By adding all of the individual win probabilities together for each team’s remaining games, we come to a number that represents the remaining amount of games a team is expected to win. In the example above, Arizona would receive 0.97 expected wins and Colorado would receive 0.03 expected wins. The final Dominator’s Expected Wins then adds this total to the number of wins a team already has.
Onto the rankings!
ISFL Dominator Power Rankings
S46 - Week 7
14.
Colorado Yeti (1-6)Previous Rank: 11th (-5.229)
Dominator Score: -9.444
% of Time Winning: 28.75%
% of Time Losing: 57.09%
Dominator’s Expected Wins: 3.30 (7th in the NSFC)
Trade Deadline Recommended Status: Sellers
The Yeti have fallen hard with four consecutive losses. The defending NSFC regular season champions won’t be defending their title. So should they move some of their older top pieces to another team? Top targets could be their pair of S39 linebackers in Waylen Greene (@fnordypsyduck) and Donte Darius (@Void_DCXI). While Green is still a top player on their team, they have a younger linebacker in Federico Americano (@MN_Moosey) ready to take the lead role.
13.
New York Silverbacks (2-5)Previous Rank: 13th (-9.610)
Dominator Score: -8.972
% of Time Winning: 22.72%
% of Time Losing: 63.91%
Dominator’s Expected Wins: 4.68 (5th in the ASFC)
Trade Deadline Recommended Status: Sellers
The Silverbacks have an older roster and this season hasn’t been kind to them. However, there are still some big pieces that could fetch a good price in the right situation. Most of New York’s offensive stars are already into regression and it might signal a time for the Silverbacks to look toward the future. While still at the top of the league, RB Frank Dux (@ComebackZak) has already been traded midseason once before and could fetch a decent return though it would admittedly be difficult to part with one of the top RBs in the ISFL.
12.
New Orleans Secondline (1-6)Previous Rank: 14th (-11.686)
Dominator Score: -8.386
% of Time Winning: 25.88%
% of Time Losing: 58.75%
Dominator’s Expected Wins: 3.82 (7th in the ASFC)
Trade Deadline Recommended Status: Sellers
Of course, New Orleans has already shown that they are not selling at this point by completing trades for CB Billy Jor-El (@LtHudz) and DE Liv Elsathelookout (@Bayley) who immediately slot in as two of the top total TPE players on the team. And while the recommendation is to sell players to look for the future, most players are multiple seasons away from regression and should only improve for a few seasons yet. One player that could be a minor trade piece would be WR Eli Prince (@Rufio_NZ). Entering regression after the season, Prince could be a nice addition as a 3rd receiver for a team needing depth at WR.
11.
Honolulu Hahalua (1-6)Previous Rank: 10th (-5.122)
Dominator Score: -5.519
% of Time Winning: 26.13%
% of Time Losing: 47.09%
Dominator’s Expected Wins: 4.45 (6th in the ASFC)
Trade Deadline Recommended Status: Sellers
To anyone that is not aware, Honolulu has already started “Tanksgiving” (the inspiration for the tone of this article) and traded away DE Liv Elsathelookout (@Bayley), CB Billy Jor-El (@LtHudz), LB Liath Squirrel (@LiathTheSquirrel), S Alita Battle Angel (@moonlight), QB Nova Montagne (@OrbitingDeath), and WR Florida Man (@nickyvmlp). Could they continue the teardown? At this point, anyone and everyone seems to be on the trade block. An interesting option could be OL Remi Musgrave-Smyth (@37thchamber) for a team that wants to upgrade at OL for a playoff push.
10.
Chicago Butchers (2-5)Previous Rank: 8th (-2.021)
Dominator Score: -4.263
% of Time Winning: 29.03%
% of Time Losing: 40.65%
Dominator’s Expected Wins: 6.11 (6th in the NSFC)
Trade Deadline Recommended Status: Sellers
With three straight losses, the outlook for Chicago’s season has taken a downturn and they find themselves needing to contemplate trading away aging assets in hopes that the future is brighter. While both players were recently acquired via trade, could Chicago look to move DE GOAT TANNK (@Eldorian) or RB Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin (@DREAMSLOTH)? Both players will regress heavily after the season but are still viable contributors for the rest of the season at a minimum.
9.
Sarasota Sailfish (3-4)Previous Rank: 12th (-7.823)
Dominator Score: -3.147
% of Time Winning: 41.97%
% of Time Losing: 43.25%
Dominator’s Expected Wins: 6.73 (5th in the NSFC)
Trade Deadline Recommended Status: Sellers
While Sarasota has been able to win two of their last three games, it still is difficult to see them making a similar run to last season. The Sailfish have a rising defense and shouldn’t be looking to sell there. However, with the continuing success of RB Ace Anderson (@DangWookie), could it be time to transform the Sarasota offense into a run-first unit and part with some aging wide receivers? WR Thomas Robinson (@infern8) is deep into regression but would still make a solid WR3 for the right team.
8.
Berlin Fire Salamanders (3-4)Previous Rank: 6th (0.170)
Dominator Score: -1.813
% of Time Winning: 40.46%
% of Time Losing: 44.61%
Dominator’s Expected Wins: 7.35 (4th in the NSFC)
Trade Deadline Recommendation: Hold
The Fire Salamanders already swapped QBs with the Honolulu Hahalua and have acquired QB Nova Montagne (@OrbitingDeath) in a trade seemingly done as a favor to the aging star. If Berlin can string together a few wins, it may be advantageous for them to acquire some help at linebacker and running back. But if things go sideways, it may be time to look to move on from someone like CB Charlie Thorsen (@Amidships) or see if anyone would want to take a retiring Armor Queen (@Starboy).
7.
Orange County Otters (5-2)Previous Rank: 9th (-2.818)
Dominator Score: 2.254
% of Time Winning: 47.16%
% of Time Losing: 37.82%
Dominator’s Expected Wins: 9.95 (4th in the ASFC)
Trade Deadline Recommended Status: Buyers
Orange County has indeed been on the lookout for extra talent to push toward the playoffs. In a bit of an arms race as one of 4 teams with 5 or 6 wins in the ASFC, one of these top teams will be left on the outside looking in. To get the process started, the Otters have already acquired LB Liath Squirrel (@LiathTheSquirrel) and S Alita Battle Angel (@moonlight). Orange County could be looking to upgrade along the defensive line, at slot corner, and at backup running back.
6.
Cape Town Crash (4-3)Previous Rank: 7th (-0.141)
Dominator Score:2.693
% of Time Winning: 49.03%
% of Time Losing: 33.07%
Dominator’s Expected Wins: 9.10 (3rd in the NSFC)
Trade Deadline Recommendation: Buyers
While the Crash started out the season a little slow, three straight conference wins puts them right in a great position for a playoff spot in the NSFC. Boasting the league’s top rushing offense and two top Wide receivers, the Crash could look to make improvements on the defensive side of the ball. There is plenty of room to upgrade along the defensive line and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cape Town make a move with both this year and next year in mind. An upgrade at safety could also be in the works.
5.
Yellowknife Wraiths (5-2) (<--we need the new Wraiths logo!)Previous Rank: 3rd (9.711)
Dominator Score: 5.030
% of Time Winning: 40.29%
% of Time Losing: 39.35%
Dominator’s Expected Wins: 10.39 (2nd in the NSFC)
Trade Deadline Recommendation: Buy
While the Wraiths have been a surprise to many this season, they have already found a way to upgrade their roster with the addition of S Tyler One (@pauadrian) from Orange County. Another obvious hole in their current roster is at the wide receiver position. With two IA receivers at the top two spots, it’s likely that the Wraiths are in the market for an upgrade. They could benefit from a star linebacker to help shore up the defense if they really want to go all in.
4.
Baltimore Hawks (5-2)Previous Rank: 4th (7.482)
Dominator Score: 5.143
% of Time Winning: 49.17%
% of Time Losing: 31.68%
Dominator’s Expected Wins: 10.42 (1st in the NSFC)
Trade Deadline Recommendation: Buy
With the fast start and playing in a weaker NSFC, the Hawks look primed to return to the playoffs once again. With the defense playing near the top in the league, it comes down to the offensive side of the ball for Baltimore to look to upgrade. A few options could be to improve on the all human OL as no player is over 600 TPE or to go find a complement to Anakin Skywalker (@ForSucksFake) in the backfield.
3.
San Jose SaberCats (5-2)Previous Rank: 1st (14.769)
Dominator Score: 6.403
% of Time Winning: 51.31%
% of Time Losing: 33.52%
Dominator’s Expected Wins: 10.54 (3rd in the ASFC)
Trade Deadline Recommendation: Buy
The SaberCats have cooled off after their blistering start to the season. In an effort to improve their fortunes, they have already gone and acquired Florida Man (@nickyvmlp) to boost the passing game. The defense is solid but an upgrade could be had at safety and/or slot corner. On paper, the running back room could also be a place for San Jose to look to add but it’s hard to argue with the performance so far by the young duo of Maple Dogwood (@dogwoodmaple) and Kit Fisto (@Pvtpenne).
2.
Austin Copperheads (6-1)Previous Rank: 5th (2.037)
Dominator Score: 8.069
% of Time Winning: 52.87%
% of Time Losing: 27.30%
Dominator’s Expected Wins: 12.19 (2nd in the ASFC)
Trade Deadline Recommendation: Buy
The defending champions may have surprised people last season, but that’s not the case this time around. The Copperheads became the last team to lose a game with their first loss last week. However, they are just one game from 4th place in the top heavy ASFC. Don’t be surprised if Austin looks for a cheap rental to upgrade their cornerback position for this season. While two improving S44 players in Trent Thigpen (@GrimmCrackers) and Gajeel Redfox (@AJay887) are on the roster, a veteran addition for this season could help improve their pass defense.
1.
Arizona Outlaws (6-1)Previous Rank: 2nd (10.282)
Dominator Score: 11.952
% of Time Winning: 67.92%
% of Time Losing: 12.63%
Dominator’s Expected Wins: 12.88 (1st in the ASFC)
Trade Deadline Recommendation: Buy
The Arizona Outlaws have returned to the top spot in the Dominator Power Rankings once again. This time around as the top dogs in the ultra competitive ASFC. While the team doesn’t have a lot of holes, they are giving up the most passing yards per game in the ISFL. An upgrade in the defensive backfield, specifically at cornerback, could be something the Outlaws pursue. Otherwise, this team should be one of the favorites to win the Ultimus (yet again).
Way to Early Playoff Predictions
ASFC Wildcard
over NSFC Wildcard
over ASFC Conference Championship
over NSFC Conference Championship
over Ultimus XLVI
over Previous Ultimus Predictions:
Week 4:
over That’s it for this edition of Dominator Power Rankings. Let me know what you think of your team below!
RE: ISFL Dominator Power Rankings - Assistant to the POR GM - 02-10-2024
@DL14 It’s fnordypsyduck
RE: ISFL Dominator Power Rankings - Baron1898 - 02-10-2024
the silverbacks are 2-5
RE: ISFL Dominator Power Rankings - caleb.grim - 02-10-2024
(02-10-2024, 05:54 PM)Baron1898 Wrote: the silverbacks are 2-5
ahhhh! Thank you. Fixed
RE: ISFL Dominator Power Rankings - WALDO - 02-10-2024
OCO check not clear?
RE: ISFL Dominator Power Rankings - SwankyPants31 - 02-11-2024
Always love seeing these come out. Here's hoping the Hawks can keep it rolling
RE: ISFL Dominator Power Rankings - 37thchamber - 02-12-2024
Could Remi really be on the move? After his epic quest to find Leilani? Hmmmmmmm...