International Simulation Football League
*Player Deep Dive: Bread Bowl - Printable Version

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*Player Deep Dive: Bread Bowl - lemonoppy - 02-22-2024

When I joined the ISFL, there were two premier TEs in my draft class, Ignatious Cleetington (110radio) and Swamp Maiden (honey). They were both rookies, cool, and active, all three of us having come from the Miami Dolphins subreddit, and both these two TEs were a lock for 5 receptions for 40 yards, whether you needed 20 or 60 that game. Neither of these two played a snap as a TE in the ISFL.

If you continue reading this, you can expect to read an article about Tight Ends through the lens of Bread Bowl, and every single snap that he’s mentioned on in the ISFL Index from seasons 43 to 46. And since I’m going to get very exhaustive about a single player, I think you deserve a TL;DR.

TL;DR - TEs swap for a reason, there’s basically no glory in it unless you’re literally the sim outlier Hogmally. As a high earner on an average team throwing about average passes, you’ll end up with about 650 yards and 4 TDs a season. True rookie Silence Suzuka as a WR has 600 yards and 4 TDs in 12 games this season.

TE being underwhelming seems to have a larger swell this season, Hogmally regressing has lead to a devastating lack of excitement around the position in fantasy, even Detective Crashmore who’s on a Yellowknife roster with no other receiving weapons except reigning first overall pick, Silence Suzuka, is somewhere in the mid 50s in receiving yards, having just cracked 500 yards, 12 games into the season.

There are a few major things that made me want to write this and spend just a silly amount of time becoming the leading Bread Bowl stat expert in the league, even more than Waldo is, by quite a large amount I imagine.

First: TEs swap. They all swap, all the top TEs that is. I checked today and there are 4 TEs that are over the 250 DSFL TPE cap.

OCO Bread Bowl - S42 979 TPE
SJS Kenny Szymborski - S41 776 TPE
COL Mister Hogmally - S36 634 TPE
COL La’Fluke Paris-Johnson - S43 466 TPE

In the lemonoppy Position Tracker, you can see that there are “only 10” TE spots available in the league. I don’t know how accurate that number is; I’ve had people ask me why it’s only 10 TEs when there are 14 teams. Maybe the number should be closer to 6.

Second: Waldo recently talked about how shitty it is to play TE in general chat and Higbee II is adamant about not swapping from TE in the face of players like Tim Riggins and supposedly Long Snapper swapping out of TE before the ISFL draft. Waldo said that he doesn’t think he’s had more than 70 yards in a game, and that kind of got my brain turning to see what a very high earning TE can expect stat wise. And if you’re into charts and data, we’ve got another thousand words to go.


Bread Bowl Stats

First things first, here’s the spreadsheet: Player Deep Dive: Bread Bowl. If you want to see every single play that Bread Bowl is mentioned in, you can now. Also, the sim’s player stat pages don’t actually map 1 to 1 with the Play by Play, minor thing, you can safely ignore it. You can also see his stats against specific teams, specific downs or distances from the goal or to a first down, based on home/away, point differential, etc.

Bread Bowl was drafted to OCO in the S42 ISFL draft with the 37th overall pick. He’s the third TE off the board, Hank Mardukas to New Orleans with the 1.03 and National Treasure off to Colorado with the 2.12. With 979 TPE, Waldo is the 16th highest earner in his class, and soon to be 15 with WildfireMicro having retired.

Hank Mardukas is currently the league’s receiving yards leader at 1095 yards / 7 TDs and National Treasure is third with 1049 yards / 8 TDs. Both are Wide Receivers.

[Image: Career_Stats.png?ex=65ea2e3d&is=65d7b93d...b8c531c19&]

[Image: Team_Offensive_Stats.png?ex=65ea2e3d&is=...height=380]

Over 60 games in the ISFL, Bread Bowl is averaging about 7.5 plays (receptions, targets, penalties) for about 5 receptions and 38 yards. This is very surprisingly close to the DSFL numbers we used to joke about for Cleetington and Maiden, and also, I would say, a pretty boring stat line. Over a 16 game season, that translates to 80 receptions for 605 yards and 2.5 TDs. TEs do block, so 48 pancakes as well (WRs get about 32ish, so about 150% of their pancakes).

Orange County is generally passing more and more, although they are middle of the pack in yards, and Bread Bowl is earning more of the target share, although 20% is a ton for a TE and I wouldn’t expect it to increase much more. I think we can kind of safely assume that we’re mostly levelled out here.

As a Possession TE arch, Bread Bowl is a reliable target who features on all downs, but primarily the earlier downs as a receiving target or in long yardage situations where you put out more receivers to reach that marker.

[Image: By_Down.png?ex=65ea2e3c&is=65d7b93c&hm=7...height=384]

[Image: By_Yards_to_First_Down.png?ex=65ea2e3d&i...height=384]

In line with what you might expect, the First Down rate is about what you can expect at the NFL level, except that the 8+ yard ones are lower for Bread Bowl than in the real world.

Bread Bowl generally is getting 7 yards a catch, although longer yardage necessary situations (3rd and very long for example) understandably has him catching the ball way further down the line of scrimmage because of course you’d pass far if you need lots of yards. We can see drops increasing in rate based on distance, but that’s explained by the sim not counting drops as drops, but more on randomly assigning incomplete passes as drops based on some of your stats.

If we look at plays based on distance to goal, we can see that on rate we don’t expect much variation in what the result of the plays are, except that Bread Bowl features more on plays from the OCO 20-40, which is where the majority of drives start as kick-offs and punts generally land you in that range.

So far, nothing out of the ordinary and maybe what you can expect from any reciever?

[Image: By_Distance_to_Goal.png?ex=65ea2e3c&is=6...height=446]

I think overall we can see that Bread Bowl is used how you can expect a TE to be used. They’re generally available in formations, more often when you need large amounts of yardage for a first down (more receivers = more chances to spot a hole in coverage), and the conversion rate for first downs is in line with how football works.

With this in mind, I would expect something like receptions, yardage increasing when your team is scoring more points because points is a function of your offense (generally), and maybe average yardage goes up because you’re in games where the team is doing well, but not that much more than expected.

[Image: By_Team_Points_Scored.png?ex=65ea2e3c&is...height=396]

And what do you know, it’s kinda similar to the previous numbers! I’d expect the same-ish during Wins or Losses, but maybe more yards during losses since you need to catch up by airing it out.

[Image: By_Game_Result.png?ex=65ea2e3c&is=65d7b9...height=332]

My conclusion here is that maybe Bread Bowl is basically at his peak, or rather, maybe that this is the peak you can expect for a Possession TE. 20% target share and a generally consistent level of volume and YPC points towards a player doing their job in the formations that they line up in. That's pretty unsatisfying though, peaking 3 seasons into being a good earner and making the ISFL?

To throw in a wrinkle, what if I show you some stats of IRL TEs from the 2023 NFL season? Maybe the ISFL sim team and Wolverine Studios has TEs just kinda sucky and while the numbers above make sense, maybe they aren't realistic.

[Image: NFL_Comparables_Hidden.png?ex=65ea2e3d&i...height=516]

These are top 12 NFL TEs based on yardage over the past season. Actually, 3 of them are NFL TEs, one of them is Bread Bowl. Without scrolling up, can you tell which one is which?

[Image: NFL_Comparables_Revealed.png?ex=65ea2e3d...height=516]

These aren’t bad TEs, in fact, they’re maybe your average TEs in the NFL. You don’t want to draft them in Fantasy, they’re classic dead-zone players who are just TD lotteries week to week.

This is actually the point where I completely abandoned my thoughts on that TEs in the ISFL suck statistically and that maybe its our expectations and our wants for progression that are mis-aligned.


Conclusion

When I was planning on writing this article, I was thinking that I’d find that TEs in the ISFL just suck comparatively to the NFL ones. I mean, we all say they don’t do much on Discord and I assumed that that’d pan out.

As I was looking at these stats however, I think maybe that DDSPF21 is actually not so bad. The stats I’m seeing here map with what real NFL TEs do. In the real world, players can’t really control their natural body measurements, sometimes your body just fits the mold of a TE better than a WR, or maybe you aren’t just quite quick enough. TEs are necessary and good in the NFL because of the different shapes and sizes people come in and the skills people have. You don’t get Travis Kelce or Gronk very often because those are unicorns. If every TE could have 1000 yard seasons, we’d have more of them in the NFL.

To try and figure out how to interpret what I was seeing number wise, I asked Waldo about why he felt so dissatisfied with the position, and he told me this:

Quote:I feel like a "satisfying" total is two things, number one it's improvement from the year before. Being able to say that my numbers got better as I earned more feels right and feels like what should be happening as I earn. Number two it's how am I doing relative to the rest of the TE position. Am I doing better than someone in yards and touchdowns? Do I have the most touchdowns among TEs? Until both of those answers are a yes, I cannot say that any season is "satisfying".

I think the major disconnect that TE has from a user perspective in the ISFL is that you don’t have that same feeling of progression unless your team specifically chooses to put you in on more passing downs and formations, passing downs and formations that, generally, a higher speed character will do better at. We don’t have TEs “sucking” per se in the ISFL, we just have this very strong ceiling on them that doesn’t allow you to go from rookie TE to Cole Kmet to TJ Hockenson to Travis Kelce. In order to get that elite TE production, you need WR snaps or formations where you’re basically a WR, like they do for Kansas City.

So, if you’re looking to play TE, you need to know this. You need to specifically know what you’re looking for in a career, that the line doesn’t really go up after a certain point, and unless you and your GM know that you want more and they’re willing to put you in those positions on the depth chart, you’re going to max out as Cole Kmet about 3 seasons in.

Being something like WR3 isn't a bad thing, but it's not the aspirational RPG thing that we're all kind of looking for while we play here together in the ISFL. Bread Bowl is in the mid-50s of all players with receiving yards this season, and he was last season too, and the season before that. How lame is it that when you're in a TE position and lined up in the TE position on the depth chart, you can just expect... the same thing thing for like 8 seasons, that's over a year IRL where you just see 5 for 40 every game, meanwhile Thomas Passarelli is scoring back to back 90 yard touchdowns.

TE isn't broken bad or broken good in the ISFL, not really, maybe what's broken is being able to flex out RB or WR to TE, but that's a fun part of depth chart and roster management. Hogmally shows that you can be a vertical threat, you can absolutely get those Kelce seasons and dominate the receiving leaderboards and be top 6 in yards with 1250 receiving and 9ish touchdowns and single-handedly determine who wins in fantasy. But to get to those numbers, is your team willing to put you in a spot where that can happen? And if not, and if you specifically require that to even break 700 yards, what are we promising to players who sign up as a TE?

In games there's always a question about fun vs competition, min-maxing to squeeze out every drop of sim win rate. It's fun to hang out with people and chat and be a part of this league, #football-talk-and-rant excluded. I wouldn't want to ever play OL but I'm glad there are people who do. I hope that we're able to make sure that playing TE generally follows a similar conversation in figuring out expectations, and that we're all able to enjoy our time in the ISFL, both in sim and out.

Fun Stats

To end with, how about some fun stuff!
  • It took 27 games but in S44 W11 against Chicago, Bread Bowl got his first TD, capping off a drive where he caught a 33 yarder with a short 4 yard snag.
  • Bread Bowl has committed 20 penalties in 60 games, with 8 being False Starts and 6 Holds.
  • The median net yardage in a game for Bread Bowl (total yards - penalty yards) is 30 yards.
  • Both of his fumbles he’s recovered on his own!
  • There have been 13 interceptions on plays where the target was Bread Bowl.
  • In S44 W9 against Honolulu, Bread Bowl had 7 targets in a row that ended up incomplete.
  • In S44 W13 against San Jose, during a drive Bread Bowl was targeted three times in a row, going Incomplete > 4 yard Reception > 7 yard Reception to move the sticks by himself.
  • Of that > 70 yard game that Waldo says he probably hasn’t had, he’s actually had 3 in his 60 games. S44 W1 @ SJS (101 yards), W45 W11 @ BER (87 yards), and S46 W9 vs AZ (84 yards). However in this last game, he did have 15 yards of penalties, resulting in 69 net yards (nice).

[Image: Career_Stats_by_Opponent.png?ex=65ea30ae...dab72bb0d&]

RE: Player Deep Dive: Bread Bowl - Baron1898 - 02-22-2024

you asked on discord what I thought of media this season, and I'll go ahead and tell you that this one is really really good

RE: Player Deep Dive: Bread Bowl - Nathan - 02-22-2024

Before reading this I've always said that tight end is a terrible middle ground between receiver and offensive lineman in terms of a direct sim experience. If you're a person who doesn't care about racking up yards and shit you'll just play lineman cause it gives your team more cap room and is more consistent in blocking. If you do care about those stats you'll play receiver. Now, I don't have any experience or knowledge about the sim and how tight ends affect what teams can run, so I don't know if there's a similarity with what I heard about Austin last season and having a fullback helped with their playbook or whatever.

RE: Player Deep Dive: Bread Bowl - JJ5 - 02-22-2024

My takeaway is that Thomas Passarelli is selfish and should leave some yards and TDs for the rest of us.

RE: Player Deep Dive: Bread Bowl - Pvtpenne - 02-22-2024

(02-22-2024, 04:18 PM)lemonoppy Wrote: This is actually the point where I completely abandoned my thoughts on that TEs in the ISFL suck statistically and that maybe its our expectations and our wants for progression that are mis-aligned.

While you touched on this a little bit in the conclusion, I still think the consensus that TEs in the ISFL suck statistically is valid if you have to have a near max build to still be worse than rookie year Dalton Kincaid.  Not to mention Kincaid's stats are on a sub 17% target share and 80+% catch rate. Of which the catch rate is unattainable in the sim and the lower target share is much more team friendly since you are going to get a much higher yards per target or EPA or any stat really targeting a WR route over a TE route. And having 2x the TD ain't nothing either.

Ultimately, the thing that rubs me the wrong way is that any play where you target a TE instead of a WR is basically a loss for your team. Jenni's EPA per play numbers are pretty illuminating in this regard, I think the most recent ones I have are from S44. The best 2 TEs (Hogmally, Crashmore) barely eclipsed the 0.1 EPA/play mark while the next 3 were between 0 and 0.1 and 4 others were in the negative. Meanwhile for WRs, 4 were in the negative (3 rookies and 1 grandpa), 3 others were between 0 and 0.1, and 33 were better than 0.1 (and this doesn't take into account WRs that lined up at TE, didn't feel like taking the time to cross reference). So while I can understand TE's raw numbers not matching up with WR's raw numbers, the fact that you are essentially hurting your team by being "good" is the flaw with the position in my eyes.

I'm not sure if there is anything the sim balance team can do about it, but to me, TE would be a much more fulfilling position if the statistical profile actually looked more like Dalton Kincaid than Bread Bowl (lower target share, higher catch rate, higher YPC).

RE: Player Deep Dive: Bread Bowl - WALDO - 02-22-2024

some of those fun stats are actually not that fun. but overall great article. if you win a gemini award i feel i should get one by proxy

RE: Player Deep Dive: Bread Bowl - UptownCord - 02-22-2024

#UnleashTEs #FreeBreadBowl

RE: Player Deep Dive: Bread Bowl - caravaggio - 02-23-2024

This is an insanely good media, well done!

RE: Player Deep Dive: Bread Bowl - Chicken Lips - 02-23-2024

TE as a position is just mid as a user experience. You can enjoy it, but from a utility standpoint any max earning TE is generally going to be more useful swapping to another position to help out their team. So I guess you could say the impact of having a max earning TE on your team isnt as big as a max earning WR, RB, LB etc.