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+--- Thread: *Sean Robinszn (/showthread.php?tid=50747)
*Sean Robinszn - wizard_literal - 04-18-2024
In the last two seasons, Sean Robinszn has a TD% of 8.54%. However, the league average last year was 4.8%. If you adjust his TD% to 5%, still above LA, he goes from catching 17 TDs in his last 28 games to only 16.85. I'll be generous and give him 17.
Now, let's adjust his receiving yards. It goes from 83.6 to only 95.5 this season by just adjusting his TD% to normally above average. Later on, I will adjust it further to take yards into account.
Next, we have to account for him passing more than league average. Falco has 476 pass attempts over 12 games. The LA is 39.33(repeating of course)/game, which equals 6476, around a 0% reduction. Robinsznalso has a flukey 11.3 Yards per Catch, which can be adjusted to 13.7 which he had last season (still above LA) based on the league average of 7.5.
So we can estimate that over a 16 game season, his adjusted yardage is (6397.5)/1816= 4544 yards.
Now, I will adjust his passer rating again based on these 16 game stats
1841 Receiving yards
134 catches
134 completions from Blaine Falco(also adjusted)
After this, his Receiving Yards per game rating bottoms out at 115.0625, which lands him squarely above Dak Prescott last year. Although that's mostly because Dak plays Quarterback.
His final 16 game adjusted stats:
1841 yards / 134 CTCH / 134 CMP / 66.7% CMP (same) / 33 TD / 13.7 Y/Ctch /
What does this tell us?
It tells us that Robinszn's perceived success in the league is largely inflated by the fact he's the best Receiver in the league, wildly outlier stats in his 16 games as perceived elite talent is true. When you adjust for the future by bringing up his outlier stats, he regresses heavily to a slightly above average Hall of Fame Wide Receiver.
RE: Sean Robinszn - Pvtpenne - 04-18-2024
I think I just had a stroke
RE: Sean Robinszn - .HoshinoIchika - 04-18-2024
ROBINSZN
RE: Sean Robinszn - Ulaire - 04-19-2024
Who?