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+---- Thread: *The Case for Connor Tanner (/showthread.php?tid=5200)
*The Case for Connor Tanner - kckolbe - 10-14-2017
So, @manicmav36 recently expressed confusion at my support for Connor Tanner as a Pro Bowl TE this season, and I don't blame him. While I can't say I'd given it a ton of thought, a recent presser brought the question to mind. Unsurprisingly, the question was asked by @Keyg_an (Tanner's user) was the one who introduced the question. As a result, I looked at all the stats, put them in context, and named Tanner as one of my picks.
For easy reference, here were Tanner's stats:
35 catches, 315 yards, 5 TDs, 17 pancakes, 0 sacks allowed.
That's not bad, but with the exception of TDs and sacks allowed, nothing really jumps out.
I think volume is given too much attention for awards. That's not just a sim league issue, by the way. Last year, Farlane was crowned a god at the awards ceremony for having the most rushing yards, despite being a fumbling machine and just also having a shit ton of carries. Tweed was more efficient behind a worse line, but because the passing game sucked, he got fewer opportunities.
Tanner is the kind of player bound to get overlooked if not given the attention. Here's why:
1) The Legion suck, and players on shitty teams ROUTINELY get overlooked (especially in the NFL)
2) Tanner only played 9 NSFL games this year, resulting in lower volume
3) The sim index lists Tanner as having played in TEN games, meaning even fair people will fail to properly account for loss of opportunity.
4) The Legion offense is worse than almost anyone knows.
5) The impact made by Tanner is only somewhat appreciated.
Regarding point 1, how exceptional can ANY player be if their team only won 2 games? With 23 starters, ONE player just doesn't make that big a difference, especially a TE. It's shitty logic, but it had to be addressed.
Okay, regarding points 2 and 3. In Week 5, Tanner had been called up, and was on the roster, but didn't get loaded into the sim's depth chart. It was a simple mistake, but Tenzini was the starter, and Larsendorf the #2. Tanner only played 9 games. So when looking at his stats, try multiplying all of them by 1.55. Doing so gives you the following:
Tanner: 54.3 catches, 488.3 yards, 7.8 TDs, 26.4 pancakes, 0 sacks allowed*
Law: 61 catches, 576 yards, 6 TDs, 32 pancakes, 0 sacks allowed
Wright: 86 catches, 599 yards, 4 TDs, 38 pancakes, 1 sack allowed
Looking at those numbers, I think most would agree that all three warrant consideration. Let's move on to point 4.
The Legion offense combined for 4,232 yards and 21 TDs. By comparison, the Outlaws offense combined for 5,277 yards and 40 TDs. The Otters? 5,577 yards and 46 TDs. These teams were NOT close in offensive talent.
Let's look at each player's contribution as a percentage of team production. (For this I will use Tanner's REAL stats, not projected, as if Tanner had played all 14 games, the team's numbers would likely be a bit higher)
Tanner: 7.44% of yards, 23.81% of TDs
Law: 10.92% of yards, 15.00% of TDs
Wright: 10.74% of yards, 8.70% of TDs
Now, notice that Tanner, despite only playing 60% of the season, was FAR more important to his team's scoring than Law and Wright. For comparison's sake, let's look at ONLY the 9 games Tanner played. In those games, the Legion had a combined 2,630 offensive yards and 16 TDs. The TE match up NOW looks like this:
Tanner: 11.98% of yards, 31.25% of TDs
Law: 10.92% of yards, 15.00% of TDs
Wright: 10.74% of yards, 8.70% of TDs
Looking at that, TRY to make an argument that either of those TEs were more important than Tanner to their respective offenses.
Finally, point 5, a point already made much better by @adam2552 in two quotes from his last article:
Quote:Both of the Legion’s wins came after TE Connor Tanner was called up. And he played a big role in each of those wins totaling 12 catches for 104 yards and 4 touchdowns
and
Quote:If Connor Tanner isn’t on the Legion, do they win those 2 games? In the Legion’s first win, at the Sabercats, Tanner had a late 4th quarter touchdown that ended up being the game-winning touchdown. In addition to that he had already scored a TD earlier in the game. In the Legion’s second win, versus the Yeti, Tanner scored the Legion’s only two touchdowns! The final score was 14-10, with Tanner opening the scoring in the first quarter and adding what ended up, again, being the game-winning touchdown in the third quarter.
As someone who was watching the Legion games with a bit more than casual interest, I can say that Tanner's addition turned the team around, both with on-field play and motivation/coaching. I can say with complete confidence that replacing Wright or Law with a 50 TPE inactive would not greatly affect either team. Tanner, on the other hand, was a difference-maker.
(*the 0 sacks allowed is unlikely given the 5 teams played while Tanner was in DSFL. 1 sack allowed seems the fairest assumption)
Pay 40% to Keyg_an for asking me to look into this and alerting me of the DC issue. 40% to adam2552 for the two quotes above.
GRADED
*The Case for Connor Tanner - manicmav36 - 10-14-2017
Solid work!
I would point out that in order to etrapolate his stats into a full 14 game season, you should multiply his stats by 1.55, not 1.7, as this actually gives him an extra game (1.7 x 9 = 15.3). While not a huge difference, it is a difference regardless.
Stats would change as such:
59.5 catches -> 54.3
535.5 yards -> 472.5
8.5 TDs -> 7.8
28.9 pancakes -> 26.4
Giving him a total stat line (if we were to round to the nearest whole number): 54 catches, 473 yards, 8 TDs, 26 pancakes.
I would also argue that sacks allowed should be removed. Assuming he would have allowed 0 sacks in the 5 games he missed is quite a leap. The Legion faced the Outlaws, Wraiths, and Hawks (x2) in that time frame, teams that finished first, second, and third in sacks for the season, respectively. Essentially removing 4 of the 6 toughest games from a pass blocking perspective.
@kckolbe
*The Case for Connor Tanner - kckolbe - 10-14-2017
(10-14-2017, 09:12 AM)manicmav36 Wrote:Solid work!
I would point out that in order to etrapolate his stats into a full 14 game season, you should multiply his stats by 1.55, not 1.7, as this actually gives him an extra game (1.7 x 9 = 15.3). While not a huge difference, it is a difference regardless.
Stats would change as such:
59.5 catches -> 54.3
535.5 yards -> 472.5
8.5 TDs -> 7.8
28.9 pancakes -> 26.4
Giving him a total stat line (if we were to round to the nearest whole number): 54 catches, 473 yards, 8 TDs, 26 pancakes.
I would also argue that sacks allowed should be removed. Assuming he would have allowed 0 sacks in the 5 games he missed is quite a leap. The Legion faced the Outlaws, Wraiths, and Hawks (x2) in that time frame, teams that finished first, second, and third in sacks for the season, respectively. Essentially removing 4 of the 6 toughest games from a pass blocking perspective.
@kckolbe
Bad math on my part. I checked it, not sure what I did wrong. Will adjust the stats.
*The Case for Connor Tanner - manicmav36 - 10-14-2017
(10-14-2017, 11:19 AM)kckolbe Wrote:Bad math on my part. I checked it, not sure what I did wrong. Will adjust the stats.
I would also like to point out that his TD numbers are probably inflated if we are to extrapolate them into a full season. All 5 of his TDs came in only 3 games, 4 were against teams with losing records. Essentially saying that in 2/3 of his games, he never scored a TD and only scored 1 TD against a team with a winning record.
*The Case for Connor Tanner - iamslm22 - 10-14-2017
I completely agree with @manicmav36. Tanner has no business being in the Pro Bowl.
First off, extrapolating stats is a fools errand, as there is no way to know how many touchdowns he actually would have scored.
Second, Law and Wright did play in those extra games!! They SHOULD get that credit. I mean this dude only effected his team for 9/14 games, and that rules him out of the Pro Bowl for me.
*The Case for Connor Tanner - Keyg_an - 10-14-2017
(10-14-2017, 08:42 AM)iamslm22 Wrote:I completely agree with @manicmav36. Tanner has no business being in the Pro Bowl.
First off, extrapolating stats is a fools errand, as there is no way to know how many touchdowns he actually would have scored.
Second, Law and Wright did play in those extra games!! They SHOULD get that credit. I mean this dude only effected his team for 9/14 games, and that rules him out of the Pro Bowl for me.
Only effect 9 of the 14, but I'm being used as a pawn in a story to punish the legion for "going over the cap" because I'm single handily the reason they won 2 of those 9?
*The Case for Connor Tanner - manicmav36 - 10-14-2017
(10-14-2017, 11:42 AM)iamslm22 Wrote:I completely agree with @manicmav36. Tanner has no business being in the Pro Bowl.
I wouldn't say no business, for a rookie he had a very solid season. I just think stats show that Wright and Law had much better seasons. If he continues to develope, I think he'll definitely be in the discussion next year.
*The Case for Connor Tanner - iamslm22 - 10-14-2017
(10-14-2017, 11:47 AM)Keyg_an Wrote:Only effect 9 of the 14, but I'm being used as a pawn in a story to punish the legion for "going over the cap" because I'm single handily the reason they won 2 of those 9?
Right, but that's also bull shit. I don't think you guys should be punished at all either.
*The Case for Connor Tanner - Ben - 10-14-2017
6) Connor Tanner is a sexy young stud
You forgot the final point, and the main reason he gets my vote <3
*The Case for Connor Tanner - kckolbe - 10-14-2017
(10-14-2017, 09:54 AM)manicmav36 Wrote:I wouldn't say no business, for a rookie he had a very solid season. I just think stats show that Wright and Law had much better seasons. If he continues to develope, I think he'll definitely be in the discussion next year.
I wouldn't say MUCH better seasons. Honestly, I thought Wright had a horrible year considering how lit the Otters offense was.