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*s49 Fantasy Experts Accuracy Rankings - Printable Version

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*s49 Fantasy Experts Accuracy Rankings - AustinP0027 - 08-19-2024

With the s49 Fantasy season officially closing, I wanted to look back at the season to see where everyone’s assumptions were, how those players performed, and if there were any trends.

This will be a two part series, but for the first part, I want to look at our fantasy experts and their rankings.

For anyone who hadn’t seen it, a collection of users put together their rankings by position and then graciously shared it with the fantasy community.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/186B6C7QtlcRCuRL40I1nHC9xwGzcfgwsCZGmQhX38zQ/edit?usp=sharing

Let’s rip it apart!

QBs
[Image: 03HkTrk.png]
This was the year of the rookie QB in fantasy with Jimmies and Dyson taking the 1st and 3rd fantasy scoring spots. The experts, however, didn’t think so, so they took some hits across the board.

Best Ranker for QB: Tuba
Accuracy Rating: 68.97%
Tuba was the highest on Jimmies this year, ranking him 3rd compared to his 1st place finish (and the rest of the rankers who averaged a ranking of 8.6 for Jimmies). They took a hit with Tuna, their 2nd overall ranking coming in at 7th this season, but made up for it by nailing 3 predictions, having 2 more that were 1 spot off, and generally being mostly right on 4 other picks. It wasn’t just the Jimmies pick that pushed Tuba on top, though. Overall, he just didn’t have any many big differences as everyone else. Other experts managed to get picks right, but the ones they missed were much larger misses than Tuba. So Tuba is our QB champion.

RBs
[Image: Vvps9sT.png]
Oh Ace Anderson. I will have many words for you when I write the article on players (and how my season was basically over before it started). The Top of the RB class was rough for our experts. Outside of br0_0ker, no one nailed a top 3 pick. Tuba managed to pick up a top 4 correctly, but overall picking the Top 5 RBs was tough this year.

Best Ranker for RB: br0_0ker
Accuracy Rating: 71.49%

br0_0ker is the only expert to be able to pick someone correctly in the top 3 RBs, nailing that Skywalker would take the top spot this year. Compared to the other experts, this was an impressive feat, as everyone else averaged a ranking of 4.2 for Skywalker. Where br0_0ker really stood out was in their top 5 picks, where they averaged a 78% accuracy ranking. The other experts weren’t even close to that, with most of them averaging a 50% accuracy ranking for their top 5. In a league where RBs are fewer and harder to nail, that’s a huge difference in accuracy. br0_0ker clearly stood well above the rest in the RB rankings.

WR/TE
[Image: kUu9kgq.png]
When you look at the top 5 WR/TEs, you’ll see our experts mostly had the right ideas of who would be up there, just not the actual positions. The one exception is Sam Mercury, who finished 3rd overall in the WR/TE category, yet wasn’t ranked higher than 12 by any experts (and wasn’t even ranked by one of the experts)

Best Ranker for WR/TE: omg
Accuracy Rating: 67.7%

omg takes the top spot in WR/TE by 1.5%. Even though they only had a single ranking they nailed perfectly, their picks were all closer to actual final rankings than the other experts. Where omg shined was not overvaluing middle WRs like some of the other experts did, while not undervaluing them either. Hank Mardukas is a great example of this. omg picked them 10th compared to their finish of 12th. The other experts were either much higher (average of 6th) or much lower (ranking 20th). Ranking accuracy isn’t all about nailing the top picks perfectly, there are 2 WR spots plus a WR/TE spot along with a flex, so if enough people pick from the WR/TE list, you could have 24 players actively contributing. Nailing those 10-15 rankings could be the difference between a spot (There are people who missed being a fantasy spot higher by less than 2 points this season).

OL
[Image: YiwI2xc.png]
A tough position to predict, OL was rough on our experts this year. It probably didn’t help that the top scoring OL in fantasy was a bot. So was #7. But, outside of those, 2-10 was basically who got ranked.

Best Ranker for OL: MMFLEX
Accuracy Rating: 58.33%

Everyone in the group took big hits to their #1 and #2 rankings since Verwae and von Reinhertz finished 3rd and 8th respectively. Flex made up for that by having 3 of his remaining 4 picks only off by 1. OL ranking looks to be very difficult, and while the top names are generally the top names, I’m not surprised our experts were all so low in accuracy.

K
[Image: B3f9yvu.png]
Is there a position that is harder to predict than Kicker? Based on this season’s accuracy numbers, I think the answer is no. Our experts averaged a 44.01% rating as a whole on kickers, and our ranking winner didn’t cross 50%. How much of that is the sim’s fault? I’d put money on a high percent.

Best Ranker for K: JDC
Accuracy Rating: 49.1%

Ouch. Not great for Kickers when the winner is below 50%. The only Kicker that seemed to perform to the expert’s opinions was Master Chief coming in 5th. Otherwise the top ranked ones did poorly, and the lower/unranked ones took the top spots. As offenses change week to week to try and out plan the defenses, it makes sense that Kickers are different year to year. But like I said above, sometimes the sim just seems to screw with kickers, so that plays into it as well.

DL
[Image: 7KwTXX0.png]
DL looks a lot like OL where the names ranked were mostly the names that were at the top. A few misses here and there, but you mostly had the top names up in the rankings (Shoutout to Rex Havoc taking 4th in fantasy points but not benign on the list for anyone).

Best Ranker for DL: Croney
Accuracy Rating: 69.35%

Croney perfectly nailed the top 3 DL picks. No one else had more than 1 right. Croney actually would have been ranked even higher except their 6th place pick, Sonny Johnson, finished 21st. That pick dropped Croney a full 8 percentage points on his average. Interestingly, what also hit him some was that Dan Dandrews tied for 1st when Croney had him ranked 4th. Still, overall Croney did a great job of catching the top scorers at DL.

LB
[Image: CGooagy.png]
Top LB in fantasy scoring (Ali Star) wasn’t on anyone’s radar to start the season. Ali ended up winning the top spot by 36 points. Sometimes players just go nuts and you applaud their performance. I bet we see that name show up on a lot of lists next year.

Best Ranker for LB: JDC
Accuracy Rating: 61.44%

JDC takes the top spot for LBs by nailing the Dangerson pick, and by being very close on Crasher Wake and Cleetington. The Willis pick for 2nd hurt JDC quite a bit (Willis ended up 9th). Really, across the board, LB was lost, not won. Multiple users were close to JDC, but had usually 1 pick that dragged them down further.

DB
[Image: lHKvYoX.png]
Woah, what a chaotic position. Your top DB was ranked 5th at best by the rankers, your 2nd was last season’s winner, and your 3rd DB wasn’t ranked by anyone at all. The overall average for experts in the DB category was 45.09%. DB is a hard position to rank.

Best Ranker for DB: Tuba
Accuracy Rating: 55.48%

Tuba managed to sneak a win away on this one, only beating MMFLEX by .26% (point two six!). He accomplished that even though his top 2 picks, Azazel and Andre, ended up finishing 10th and 13th. He was saved by ranking Owidhuse lower than everyone else, 6th instead of 1st or 2nd. Nailed Nuggets at the 4th spot, and then was reasonably close on Dosza, Thigpen, and Willis. In a tough category, again the winner comes out ahead by being close in the middle instead of nailing the top of the list.

Summary
So, now that we’ve measured each category, what have we learned?

First, Defense is hard! Our Experts only had a 53.55% accuracy ranking on average for the defensive positions. Yes they weren’t the lowest position, but as a category of positions, Defensive predictions were lower than Offensive predictions.

Second, Kicker predictions are worse than coinflips. As I said in the individual write up, changing strategies makes it difficult to predict when Field Goals are going to happen, but I’m still very convinced the fact that the Sim will have experienced kickers miss Field Goals they should have made causes this category to be the hardest to predict.

Winners by Category Count
Everyone had a category they were the best at (good job experts!)

Tuba and JDC tie at the top with 2 wins versus everyone else’s 1.

Winners by Impact
As I look at the list, though, my first thought is “Great, if you were most accurate DL, how much does that help me, the fantasy player?”. We all know this is about us winning, so I figured we should adjust the formula a bit to measure impact.

Taking each roster, I figured out the percentage of their total points that were provided by each position group (so, for anyone in a FLEX spot, if they were a RB it was in RB group, if they were WR or TE, it was WR/TE group).

That looks like this:
[Image: PjD62pg.png]

Then, I applied that percentage to each expert’s category percentage. So if QB’s average to be 10.13% of a team’s total score, each expert’s accuracy ranking is multiplied by 10.13% to get their accuracy in that category in relation to its impact on overall fantasy scores. Then, to get the overall expert, I added those percentages together. Highest percentage has the highest impact overall.
[Image: XxDw37k.png]

The Winner
JDC
Accuracy Impact Rating - 61.01%

JDC pulls into the final lead because of their strength at RB and WR/TE, and realtive overall strength across the board. Those two positions have the highest impact on final scoring and while they didn’t win either position individually, they were high enough in both that they weren’t outpaced by anyone else. JDC had an average ranking of 2.75 across all categories, with the next closest rankings being Tuba and MMFLEX with 3.25. Winning in K and LB, 2nd in RB and OL, 3rd in DB, 4th in WR/TE and DL, and 5th in QB, JDC is our accuracy champion.


A big thanks for all the experts for the work they do. We all know that without you, our drafts would be absolute garbage. Thank you!

RE: s49 Fantasy Experts Accuracy Rankings - Assistant to the POR GM - 08-19-2024

All the haters got smooshed out fantasied benji baby

RE: s49 Fantasy Experts Accuracy Rankings - ACynicalGamer - 08-19-2024

Really good read ??

RE: s49 Fantasy Experts Accuracy Rankings - CROney3 - 08-19-2024

Not last, baby! I should probably stop drinking before doing rankings tho.

RE: s49 Fantasy Experts Accuracy Rankings - roquefort - 08-19-2024

1. really fun article

2. shoutout @omg for putting me on the rankings, your faith will be rewarded next season

RE: s49 Fantasy Experts Accuracy Rankings - br0_0ker - 08-19-2024

woot *last place!

also, great piece. had one queued up but this easily supplants it in quality, bravo

RE: *s49 Fantasy Experts Accuracy Rankings - ForSucksFake - 08-20-2024

Kneel before Shrubwalker

RE: *s49 Fantasy Experts Accuracy Rankings - swoosh - 08-20-2024

(08-20-2024, 11:09 AM)ForSucksFake Wrote: Kneel before Shrubwalker
I tried to tell 'em! 

Great work everyone. Love the rankings and know they're a savior for many.