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+---- Thread: *ISFL Fantasy Waiver Targets (/showthread.php?tid=53265)
*ISFL Fantasy Waiver Targets - TubaDeus - 09-13-2024
Hey all! Sadly life (work) got in the way and I was unable to produce my yearly fantasy media, but I'll try to make it up here with some waiver advice going into weeks 3 & 4 of the season. I'll take a look at who's hot, who's not, and whether you should jump on or jump ship. All preseason ranks are based on the SFWG Consensus Rankings.
Let's dive in!
Quarterback
Katya Zamolodchikova -
Preseason Rank - 14
Current Rank - 4
7% Owned
Katya got off to a hot start with 4 touchdowns in week 1... against Orange County. I cannot stress enough just how much of a caveat that is. Colorado played an actual ISFL caliber team in week two, which resulted in a much more muted one touchdown, two interception game. The Yeti are better than they've been the last few seasons, but they're still a far cry from being "good". Don't let week one skew your view; Katya is a low TPE QB on a team still in the depths of a rebuild. Best to leave them on waivers.
Verdict: Do not add
Lloyd Bannings -
Preseason Rank - 11
Current Rank - 6
0% Owned
Don't mind me doing a victory lap over here with my preseason rankings placing Bannings as the QB6. While Orange County isn't going out of their way to throw the ball excessively in their playcalling, the fact is the Otters suck this season, which means they're getting a ton of passing volume in garbage time. As a result, Bannings has thrown 37 more pass attempts than anyone else after just two weeks. The passing volume is absolutely absurd, maybe even unsustainable, but it has allowed Orange County to throw for 700 yards over just two games. Bannings won't be efficient, but there's little reason to believe the volume will fade that much given Orange County's roster. If Bannings is throwing for 300+ yards per game on volume alone, then just scoring the occasional touchdown is enough to keep him fantasy relevant. I wouldn't go out of my way to add him, but if you could do worse if you're desperate.
Verdict: Worth adding as a low end starting QB
Russell Jimmies -
Preseason Rank - 1
Current Rank - 7
100% Owned
The first two QBs I listed were players who were ranked low by the fantasy rankers but have been doing well so far. Jimmies' fortunes cut the other way; he was ranked as unanimous QB1, but is currently plodding along as QB7. Never fear, though. As a running QB, Jimmies' real bread and butter is getting long touchdown runs. That hasn't happened yet in the first two games of the season. Keep the faith in Jimmies and you should be rewarded when those long touchdown runs come. Even aside from Jimmies' own legs, Osaka still has one of the best offenses in the league by TPE. Their slow start to the season feels more like an anomaly than status quo.
Verdict: Hold
Tuna TurnDaBallOva -
Preseason Rank - 5
Current Rank - 14
61% owned
Another victory lap moment for me (I ranked Tuna lowest of the rankers at QB9), though this time I'm not sure how long that will last. Tuna has had the misfortune of playing both Cape Town and San Jose this season, two of the four remaining undefeated teams. After taking a look at Berlin's strats in the sim, I feel like Tuna's fortunes will turn around soon. The initial tough matchups certainly made things difficult, but the Fire Salamanders are throwing the ball at a fair clip. When Tuna starts facing some easier defenses, his fantasy numbers should improve. Just be aware that he faces yet another challenge playing at Baltimore in week 3 before his schedule lightens up a bit.
Verdict: Hold
Running Back
Dazen Guile / Julian McMorris II -
Preseason Rank: 22 / 25
Current Rank: 3 / 2
4% / 7% owned
To the surprise of everyone, Colorado is dominating the fantasy rankings after just two weeks. On top of having the QB4, they also boast the RB2 and RB3. Much like Katya, however, Guile and McMorris both benefitted massively from the OCO blowout in week 1; McMorris notched 100 yards, Guile racked up 160, and both scored a pair of touchdowns. The touchdowns kept coming in week 2 against Yellowknife, but neither one managed to reach 100 total yards. The Yeti playbook isn't that pass heavy and they do involve their running backs in their passing game, so both backs should continue to see a fair amount of usage. However, I wouldn't expect them to keep up the pace for each to reach 20+ touchdowns on the year. I see both backs falling back to Earth, but probably still solidly in flex territory instead of non-rosterable as their preseason rankings would suggest.
Verdict: Add as flex candidate
William Strong -
Preseason Rank: 19
Current Rank: 4
18% owned
Despite barely reaching 300 TPE to start the season, William Strong came on strong for fantasy. Week 1 wasn't much to write home about. Poor efficiency, but 7 catches. Week 2 ended with nearly 200 total yards, 2 touchdowns, and another 7 catches. Slightly better, you might say. I sincerely doubt he'll hit those heights often, but Orange County will score plenty of garbage time points this season and have proven to be perfectly willing to throw to their rookie running back. Really not that different a situation from the Colorado duo, except Strong has the backfield all to himself. I expect him to settle into RB2 territory as the season goes on.
Verdict: Priority add
Animal Blundetto -
Preseason Rank: 18
Current Rank: 6
18% owned
Entering the season, Yellowknife looked poised to throw the ball a bit more given the young backfield. The Wraiths instead came out pounding the rock. What's notable about Blundetto compared to the other running backs listed above is that he doesn't have a single explosive game skewing his stats after just two weeks. He just has a workman's load of 15-25 touches, give or take 100 yards, and a touchdown each game. It seems sustainable too, given Yellowknife's run-heavy playcalling and strong start to the season. It's entirely possible that Yellowknife boasts two separate RB1s this season, though it's probably safer to assume Blundetto will finish in strong RB2 territory.
Verdict: Priority add
Mako Mendonca Jr -
Preseason Rank: NR
Current Rank: 13
7% owned
Austin entered the season with a jumbled mess of a running back committee. Their roster contains just two wide receivers, no tight ends, and four running backs. Their depth chart, rather unsurprisingly, is a tangled web of timeshares as a result. So why does Mendonca stand head and shoulders above everyone else in the crowded Copperhead backfield? Mostly because he's not actually in the backfield all that often. Mendonca is listed as the RB3, and as such he sees very little rushing volume (just 10 carries after two games). However, Austin's playbook predominantly features smashmouth packages, which target the tight end heavily. Mendonca is listed as the TE1 in both I-form/Pro-Set and Two TE formations. This explains why he is by far the most targeted player in Austin's passing game (27 targets in two games), and why his production may very well be sustainable a la Purdy Mediocre from a few seasons ago. Granted, S50 Austin is not nearly the same caliber of offense as S47 Arizona, but the receiving volume alone should keep Mendonca fantasy relevant. Just make sure to keep an eye on Austin's depth chart in case they decide to shake things up down the line.
Verdict: Add as flex candidate
Willie Swaggert -
Preseason Rank: 3
Current Rank: 15
100% owned
There are a couple other hyped running backs in the same range as Swaggert in terms of current fantasy score (Triceracop at RB14, Kyle Crane at RB16), but none that came in with nearly the expectations Swaggert did. While Swaggert was splitting the backfield with American Dream the last couple seasons, he more than made up for it by lining up as WR2 when he wasn't in the backfield. Swaggert now owns the vast majority of the backfield work, but at the cost of losing his receiving role. This stings particularly badly because Berlin's playcalling is rather pass heavy on the whole, which minimizes Swaggert's new role. Sadly, Swaggert is pretty much doomed to be a bust at his ADP. However, that doesn't mean he's not rosterable. Berlin faced a pair of tough teams right out of the gate with games against Cape Town and San Jose, and Swaggert still managed 10+ fantasy points in each. If he has a floor of 10 fantasy points per game with the potential to bust out some 20+ point boom games against worse teams, he should remain squarely in the RB2 discussion.
Verdict: Hold
Hercules Henry -
Preseason Rank: 5
Current Rank: 20
100% owned
After a breakout campaign last season, Henry came into S50 with high expectations. Expectations which have been thoroughly dashed through two weeks. Cape Town's playbook has put an extreme emphasis on the passing game through the first two weeks of the season, leaving little room for the backfield tandem of Henry and Ayame to flourish. And yes, the two backs are operating as a tandem. There was hope in the preseason that Ayame would primarily operate as a change of pace back for Henry, but the two are in a true committee backfield. With a pass heavy offense and a split backfield, there simply isn't much room for Henry to produce.
Verdict: Drop
Purdy Mediocre / Bertie Mannering-Phipps -
Preseason Rank: 11 / 13
Current Rank: 19 / 23
96% / 82% owned
Arizona has been an exceptionally run heavy team for a long time, and their playcalling this season appears to show the same inclination. However, the Outlaws have had a rough start to the season, dropping games to both Austin and New Orleans. Losing games is not a good game script for running backs who don't have much of a receiving role in general, and doubly so for a committee backfield like Arizona employs. The committee approach will limit the potential upside for either back, but Arizona is still sitting on the 6th highest mark in the league for average TPE per player. They'll have better games, and both backs should enjoy a share of that success. Expect a rebound sooner or later.
Verdict: Hold
Wide Receiver / Tight End
Dru Freduci -
Preseason Rank: 21
Current Rank: 1
50% owned
The biggest beneficiary of Cape Town's new pass happy approach has not been free agent acquisition Keanu Calhoun as expected, but Crash WR2 Dru Freduci. Through two games, Freduci has drawn 5 more targets and 2 more touchdowns than Calhoun. I wouldn't expect that kind of usage to continue, but it is notable that his usage is that high to begin with. Even if (when) the balance tips back toward Calhoun, Freduci should still see plenty of targets to maintain a strong fantasy presence. The only real risk here is that Freduci is inactive while Cape Town WR3 Julian Rose is not. Freduci still has a noticeable TPE lead for the time being, but if that gap closes up then Freduci's status could be in danger. That's more something just to keep an eye on, though, rather than being an immediate concern.
Verdict: Priority add
Diego Lopez de Castilla -
Preseason Rank: 23
Current Rank: 5
18% owned
Castilla is rather firmly entrenched as the WR2 of a run heavy team. He's only seen 14 targets through two games, which isn't nothing but hardly indicative of WR1 production. Where Castilla has shined is pure efficiency. He has managed to record over 200 yards and two touchdowns the first two weeks of the season despite only nabbing 9 catches. Simply put, that isn't sustainable. The low volume will eat away at Castilla's fantasy rank as the season drags on.
Verdict: Do not add
Oliver Tolliver / Big McLarge Huge -
Preseason Rank: NR / NR
Current Rank: 6 / 9
4% / 0% owned
One of the interesting little wrinkles about Orange County this season is that they are exclusively using the West Coast playbook, a rarity in this league. The West Coast playbook seeks to spread the ball around, which may help explain why both Tolliver and McHuge are seeing such high volume (20 and 25 targets, respectively, through two weeks). I'll repeat what I said above about Orange County not being a good team, but if they're forced to throw extensively thanks to constant negative game scripts then there's some potential for all three OCO receivers to be fantasy viable.
Verdict: Add as flex candidates
Imma Sabercat -
Preseason Rank: 22
Current Rank: 13
25% owned
Copy paste the blurb from Diego Lopez de Castilla above. Sabercat only has 9 catches on 15 targets through two games, but has managed to turn that into 160 yards and a touchdown. He might be able to maintain high efficiency marks thanks to San Jose's run heavy gameplan, but the lack of volume will limit his fantasy potential.
Verdict: Do not add
Sem'ga Nah'sim -
Preseason Rank: 11
Current Rank: 26
100% owned
You see those concerns I brought up above about Castilla and Sabercat? This is what happens when you have low volume without the breakaway touchdowns. Nah'sim actually has drawn more targets than either of Castilla or Sabercat (albeit marginally), but he has yet to notch a breakaway touchdown catch like the other two. The optimist in me believes that Nah'sim is due for such a play sooner or later thanks to his own high TPE, but the fact remains that any production Nah'sim sees will likely be streaky at best given Osaka's run heavy playbook. He'll almost certainly rise from his current rank. Just don't expect a late bloom WR1 season out of him.
Verdict: Hold as flex candidate
Jordan Bamford -
Preseason Rank: T-4
Current Rank: 31
100% owned
All of Arizona got off to a slow start against Austin, so it's not terribly surprising to see Bamford off to a slow start as well. It also doesn't help that Arizona is such a run heavy team. Still, their passing game is known for being efficient, so while Bamford likely won't see high volume he should see enough yards and touchdowns to return to fantasy relevancy. Really not all that different from Nah'sim.
Verdict: Hold as flex candidate
Silence Suzuka -
Preseason Rank: T-9
Current Rank: 33
100% owned
I'm starting to get a sense of deja vu. Suzuka is the high TPE WR1 of a run heavy team who got off to a slow start this season. Suzuka has enjoyed somewhat higher volume than his peers Bamford and Nah'sim, but instead he was plagued by inefficiency against Colorado. With the season only two games in, one bad game like that is enough to hammer Suzuka's fantasy rank. Much like Bamford and Nah'sim, I wouldn't cut bait just yet, but I also wouldn't expect any miraculous late season surge.
Verdict: Hold as flex candidate
Tim Riggins -
Preseason Rank: T-9
Current Rank: 35
96% owned
Finally, a change of pace! Unlike several of the other underperforming receivers, Riggins is not in a position that affords exceptional efficiency. His preseason ranking was based on the expectation of volume as the clear WR1 of a pass heavy Yeti team. Unfortunately, Colorado is both not as pass heavy as expected and leaning into a west coast offense featuring their running backs in the passing game. Riggins is still listed exclusively as Colorado's WR1, so there is some hope that a turnaround is possible. The fact that such volume is not a guarantee is alarming, though.
Verdict: Drop
La'Fluke Paris-Johnson -
Preseason Rank: 12
Current Rank: 43
100% owned
I could cite Colorado's reduced reliance on the passing game as I did above for Riggins. I could cite Paris-Johnson's inability to fight off regression. I could cite Colorado simply not lining Paris-Johnson up as WR2 anymore. You can pick any reason you'd like, but the bottom line is that fantasy relevant players have at least reached double digit fantasy points after two weeks.
Verdict: Drop
Offensive Line
Klaus Reinhardt -
Preseason Rank: NR
Current Rank: 1
7% owned
I couldn't even begin to tell you how a rookie right guard currently sits atop the offensive line fantasy ranks, but here we are. That being said, I can't help but feel like Reinhardt is fools gold. It's exceedingly rare for non-left tackles to make a serious impact in the fantasy landscape, so it seems rather difficult to believe that a sub-400 TPE rookie right guard will be the one to break the mold. This is not a gamble I would be comfortable taking.
Verdict: Do not add
Fin-Jeremy Har-Dur -
Preseason Rank: 11
Current Rank: 4
4% owned
Another anomaly, Har-Dur is lined up as Orange County's center. The first two weeks were kind to him as he notched 7 pancakes each week with no sacks allowed. Orange County's absurd offensive volume undoubtedly feeds into this since it gives everyone more chances to make plays, but I'm not convinced he can keep it up all season. Left tackles are historically dominant when it comes to fantasy production, so anything deviating from that trend is more than likely a product of small sample sizes rather than an indication of what's to come.
Verdict: Do not add
Leonardo Da Pinchi -
Preseason Rank: NR
Current Rank: 12
11% owned
I know, Da Pinchi isn't even all that close to being a top 6 offensive lineman. Still, I think he's worth the call out. He is, after all, the left tackle for the 2-0 Hahalua. Da Pinchi was not initially ranked by the fantasy rankers due to intel that he would not be the left tackle for Honolulu this season. Clearly that intel turned out to be false. Da Pinchi hasn't been able to truly capitalize on his status just yet, but I suspect he'll rocket up the leaderboard soon enough.
Verdict: Speculative add
Octavio Volarus -
Preseason Rank: 3
Current Rank: 14
100% owned
Volarus is off to a slow start without a doubt, but don't give up hope just yet. He is the left tackle for the Second Line on top of already being one of the highest TPE offensive linemen in the league. Granted, that's not a terribly high bar at the moment, but it's still worth mentioning. He'll come back.
Verdict: Hold
Kicker
Don't use waivers on kickers
Defensive Line
D'Jasper Probincrux IV -
Preseason Rank: 5
Current Rank: 13
61% owned
While I wouldn't normally recommend burning waivers on defensive linemen, I'll make an exception here. Probincrux was ranked preseason on the belief that he would be the RDT for Berlin. Looking at the Fire Salamanders' depth chart, that does not appear to consistently be the case. Probincrux is spending some time at NT, which notoriously doesn't get much of anything stat-wise. The defensive line landscape is bleak so I'm not even sure who to target to replace him, but Probincrux will almost certainly not be a top 6 DL come season's end.
Verdict: Drop
Oops All-Pro -
Preseason Rank: 2
Current Rank: T-33
100% owned
Similar to Probincrux, All-Pro's preseason ranking was based on the belief that he would exclusively line up as the RDT in Austin's 3-4 defense. After seeing the Copperheads' depth chart, that isn't the case. All-Pro can be safely dropped so long as you don't have other pressing needs on your team.
Verdict: Drop
Linebacker
JJ What -
Preseason Rank: 14
Current Rank: 1
4% owned
In a somewhat surprising move, Honolulu is lining up JJ What as their ROLB instead of veteran Frederico Americano. This move has paid dividends for the young linebacker as he has put up back to back stellar games of forcing turnovers and wreaking havoc in opponents' backfields. However, it is notable that his production has largely come off splash plays rather than volume. Good players can put up splash stats with some level of consistently (and What is certainly a good player), but without tackle volume those stats will ebb and flow considerably. This will probably make What something of a streaky producer, which could make it difficult for him to maintain a position among the top 6 fantasy LBs.
Verdict: Speculative add if necessary
DJ Maclean / Duilio's Beard-
Preseason Rank: 15 / 4
Current Rank: 3 / 34
18% owned
Some day San Jose will play someone other than Maclean in the ROLB slot, but clearly that's not going to happen this season. Maclean continues to line up at ROLB despite the rankers' belief that teammate Duilio's Beard would fill in that role, and Maclean has fully taken advantage of it. He's led the Sabercats in tackles both weeks so far, and has plenty of splash stats to go with it. Maclean's ceiling isn't what it used to be with so much other LB talent on San Jose, but as long as he's lining up at ROLB he'll be the LB to own there. Correspondingly, I wouldn't expect Beard's misfortunes to continue all season, but he won't live up to his LB4 preseason billing.
Verdict: Drop Beard, Add Maclean
Joey Battle -
Preseason Rank: 11
Current Rank: 4
0% owned
The rankers were operating under the assumption that Osaka would roll out a rare 4-3 defensive alignment this season thanks to their defensive roster. Typically 4-3 defenses favor defensive ends over linebackers, which is why Battle was ranked so low. Turns out Osaka is using a 3-4 defense, with Battle lined up as the uncontested leader of the Kaiju front seven at ROLB. Battle is without a doubt a strong add given this context.
Verdict: Add
Ali Star -
Preseason Rank: 3
Current Rank: 22
100% owned
After a breakout season last year, Star is off to a sluggish start this season. The bottom line is that Star is good, but so is everyone around him. He's also not lining up at ROLB. I do expect some rebound here (his week one performance feels like a massive outlier for a 1200+ TPE LB), but Star will be hard pressed to repeat last season's success.
Verdict: Drop
Defensive Back
SkibidiGyat OhioRizzler -
Preseason Rank: NR
Current Rank: 1
11% owned
OhioRizzler opened up S50 with a game of the year candidate, posting an astounding 10 tackles, 6 PDs, 2 INTs, and a DTD. I can just about guarantee nothing he does the rest of the season will come anywhere near that thanks to Colorado still being among the worst teams in the league by TPE. Kudos to those who drafted him for getting the benefit of a fantasy explosion like that. Drop him before he turns back into a pumpkin.
Verdict: Do not add
Chappy McChapperson / Dino Nuggets -
Preseason Rank: NR / 1
Current Rank: 3 / 48
0% / 100% owned
Dino Nuggets is a high TPE corner attached to a high powered offense. By all rights he should be among the league leaders right now, not struggling to even reach double digit fantasy points. IDP players are known to be rather streaky, but this is rather extreme. Of course, the opposite end of the spectrum is McChapperson. McChapperson is playing CB2 rather than safety, so some level of increased production is to be expected, but it's odd seeing him as DB3 and Nuggets closer to last place than first. Nuggets is too good to not bounce back, but for those spooked by the slow start McChapperson does offer some intriguing upside.
Verdict: Hold Nuggets, Speculative add McChapperson
Trent Thigpen -
Preseason Rank: 2
Current Rank: 38
89% owned
My final victory lap pick from preseason rankings. Thigpen is an amazing corner, one of the best in the league. However, Austin is much easier to attack on the ground than through the air, and their offense isn't forcing anyone into pass heavy game scripts. There simply doesn't figure to be enough volume to feed Thigpen into elite fantasy status.
Verdict: Drop
RE: ISFL Fantasy Waiver Targets - AustinP0027 - 09-13-2024
Could have used this last week.... can I get a refund on a waiver?
RE: ISFL Fantasy Waiver Targets - .HoshinoIchika - 09-13-2024
me @PMoney and @TubbyTim69 will rizz your gyatts into the skibidi
unless you give us a small fanum tax
RE: *ISFL Fantasy Waiver Targets - Seven Arrows - 09-25-2024
Really insightful analysis. I added a bonus.