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+---- Thread: Reception Perception: Lincoln Jefferson (/showthread.php?tid=816)
Reception Perception: Lincoln Jefferson - adam2552 - 05-31-2017
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Reception Perception: Will Lincoln Jefferson’s Size and Speed Persuade a Team to Overlook his Questionable Route Tree[/div]
The 2017 NSFL WR class is one of the deepest WR classes of all time. Highlighted at the top with star talent like Josh Garden. However, there is one player that, on tape, has all the makings of a true WR1 in this league. None other than the 6’6”, red zone monster, Lincoln Jefferson.
Like many other prospects before him there are character concerns with the WR prospect. However, Jefferson’s physical gifts and talent on the field could make him an intriguing addition to any roster. Measuring at 6’6” tall and with Larry Fitzgerald-esque 10.5” hands it doesn’t take much more than the naked eye test to know that Jefferson has the size to play in this league.
Alignment and Target Data
In his final collegiate season, Lincoln Jefferson was moved all over the field to exploit weaknesses on the opposing team. Jefferson’s snaps were virtually even from each side of the field. Though mainly used as an outside receiver, he was asked to line up in the slot on 12.4 percent of his snaps. Listed at 6-foot-6, 230 pounds, the lengthy Jefferson carries the prototypical build of a split-end No. 1 WR.
Lincoln Jefferson received a staggering amount of targets. He was targeted on over half of 187 routes run in his six games sampled for Reception Perception. With his quarterbacks throwing the ball his way on 59.9 percent of his routes run, and hauling in 68.8 percent of them. We can see that Jefferson was meant to be a huge part of this offense, and Jefferson was able to convert when given the chance
Ancillary Metrics
Jefferson’s large frame and hand size will allow him to make an immediate impact in the red zone. His ability to track the ball over his shoulder also shows that he has strong timing in knowing when to pluck the ball from the air. One of Jefferson’s biggest strengths is his ability to shield defenders and use his size to his advantage. Jefferson has also shown an elite ability to catch the football at it’s highest point, making him one one of the best jump-ball winners in this draft class.
With that said, Jefferson has also shown that he can win with the ball in his hands. Jefferson went down on first contact on just 21.1 percent of his “in space” attempts. Jefferson was also able to break at least one tackle on 57.6 percent of his “in space” attempts. His size makes him difficult for smaller defensive backs to bring down.
Success Rate vs. Coverage
Lincoln Jefferson has shown a tantalizing combination of skills and overwhelming size that is rare in this league. If he is able to hone his skills as a route runner and continue to utilize his size and considerable athletic gifts he could become one of the best WRs in the league.
With a 78 percent success rate vs. man coverage, Jefferson is above average within the two-year prospect average range. The tape shows that this success generally comes by his coaching staff being able to get him in the correct matchups against smaller defensive backs. Jefferson was generally able to use his size advantage to make contested catches over the smaller defenders.
Jefferson also was a strong performer against the zone. His 87 percent success rate vs. zone coverage is one of the best in this draft class. Jefferson shows a great awareness of where the holes in the zone are, and because of his size is able to make a big target where his quarterbacks can throw it knowing only Jefferson will be able to make a play on the ball.
Facing press coverage is where Jefferson really separated himself from the rest of the class though. He flashed strong hands and excellent foot quickness to beat his defenders off the line.
Route Data
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]
![[Image: A8Zpxyz.png]](http://i.imgur.com/A8Zpxyz.png)
[/div]Like many other air-raid style receivers, Jefferson mainly ran short in-breaking patterns. This lack of route variance could be concerning to potential teams drafting Jefferson. While we expect receivers of Jefferson’s size to mainly run inside breaking concepts, it is a little worrisome that he ran zero out-breaking routes over the six games sampled. However, that is not necessarily a criticism on him as a prospect, as is not responsible for calling plays. We can only judge him on the success he had on the routes he did run.
Moving Forward
Jefferson is the biggest target in this draft. Standing at 6’6” and being the 6th fastest WR in the class should have him on every team’s board. It will be interesting to see the draft capital that a team is willing to invest in a player like this that has all the physical gifts and seemingly untapped potential. The journey for Lincoln Jefferson will continue to the NSFL and we will find out tomorrow night where he lands.
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836 words. Ready.Reception Perception: Lincoln Jefferson - timeconsumer - 06-01-2017
This is an awesome idea for a writeup. I love the route tree graphic.
Reception Perception: Lincoln Jefferson - Admin - 06-01-2017
Hey welcome to the site, Matt Harmon!