So I don't proclaim myself to be an expert, but I did finish 3rd place to snag that AMAZING 1 TPE last season in my fantasy group. I've done this kind of draft guide before in PBE to help out the newcomers to the league who often make some poor decisions due to unfamiliarity with the players and really, the teams in the league. And yeah this is late just like my PBE guide but hopefully it saves some people nonetheless. So here we go.
Round 1 Talent
1. Darren Smallwood - RB
Important stats: 1534 yards, 4.2 YPC, 27 rush TD, 53 catches, 490 yards, 3 TD
Just take this guy #1. He's the clear top fantasy performer, and in this format with only 1 RB + 1 FLEX, you can't go wrong with the bellcow back on the league's reigning champion. He shattered the record for rushing TDs last season and should continue to punch it in even in regression.
2. Owen Taylor - RB
Important stats: 1385 yards, 4.2 YPC, 23 rush TD, 47 catches, 395 yards, 1 TD
He's sort of really the 1B, since he would've set the record for most rushing TDs if not for Smallwood. In regression, he should still be dominant and the Hawks are expected to still be a wildly successful team. Not as much of a threat in the passing game, but he's the bellcow back and position is so important in fantasy drafts.
3. Carlito Crush - WR
Important stats: 100 catches, 1532 yards, 15.3 YPC, 17 TD
The speedy wideout for the Otters should be the #1 or #2 WR off the board (more on that with the next pick). He should get even more volume in this Otters offense with Tegan Atwell leaving for YKW, and with Jordan Yates retired. Expect another career year here.
4. Trey Willie - WR
Important stats: 80 catches, 1366 yards, 17.1 YPC, 8 TD
With Alexander LeClair's departure from Baltimore, Willie should have the lion's share of targets in the entire offense. The league's highest TPE wideout will look to improve on last season's disappointing TD total, which might be why he's picked after Crush. With Blocksdale at the helm again and fighting regression easily, expect better performance this season.
5. Borkus Maximus III - QB
Important stats: 4563 passing yards, 59.9%, 33 TD, 9 INT, 140 rushing yards, 1 TD
NOLA's general should continue his ascent to becoming the premier QB in the NSFL. With a wide array of receiving threats including Charlie Law, Mayran Jackson, and Paul DiMirio, expect another strong season from the reigning champion, who is ever-improving. Having Smallwood in the backfield might take some TDs away from his ceiling, but Borkus has to be the #1 QB off the board.
6. Howard Miller - WR
Important stats: 77 catches, 1347 yards, 17.5 YPC, 6 TD
One of the best steals in fantasy last season, Miller is no secret this season. With his quarterback Ryan Applehort improving, Miller should continue to control the targets in the Yeti offense. The touchdowns are a disappointment, but maybe he'll have better luck this season which would uphold his lofty position as a first round talent.
7. Avon Blocksdale - QB
Important stats: 4517 passing yards, 63.3%, 26 TD, 12 INT, 28 rushing yards, 0 rush TD
Blocksdale continues to be an elite QB, fighting off regression easily. He remains as precise with his throws as ever. Losing LeClair in the offense will hurt, though, which makes Blocksdale teeter on the edge of being a strictly second round talent. But if Maximus III is gone early, don't be afraid to take the consensus #2 QB in the NSFL.
Round 2 Talent
8. Reg Mackworthy - RB
Important stats: 1497 yards, 4.1 YPC, 4 rush TD, 26 catches, 165 yards, 1 TD
This is where the draft gets way more open and interesting. Mackworthy is in a tough battle with regression and this could be the season where he falls off the cliff. But last season Mackworthy provided great value as the bell cow in the Outlaw offense. The Outlaws should improve too, with QB Kevin Fitzpatrick in his sophomore season, to provide Mackworthy more TD opportunities. Given positional scarcity, take Mackworthy but with considerable risk.
9. Robbie Rainey - RB
Important stats: 1024 yards, 3.7 YPC, 12 rush TD, 6 catches, 25 yards, 0 TD
Rainey is slightly inactive for YKW which is a problem. He did not do too well even in a shared role in the YKW backfield, being fairly inefficient compared to the bellcows. Rainey also provides no threat in the receiving game. But, this comes from positional scarcity and you expect YKW to set up Rainey with some opportunities to punch the ball in for some TDs.
10. Charlie Law - WR
Important stats: 69 catches, 1154 yards, 16.7 YPC, 11 TD
Law should be the top wideout in the NOLA offense this season. Expect him and Maximus III to continue their great chemistry, especially in the red zone. With WR Dustin Evans retirement, volume should increase for Law as well.
11. Verso L'Alto - TE
Important stats: 89 catches, 679 yards, 7.6 YPC, 3 TD
It will surprise some people that I rate L'Alto as a low second round talent, but the performance just was not there last season. You expect more TDs from a tight end on a team with a great offense like Baltimore. Still, L'Alto has a high ADP (average draft position) so this is around where he should be taken for fair value.
12. Paul DiMirio - TE
Important stats: 84 catches, 919 yards, 10.9 YPC, 6 TD
I actually rate DiMirio way more than L'Alto for this upcoming season but he comes behind based on ADP that I've seen. DiMirio should continue to see really high volume in the NOLA offense with WR Dustin Evans retiring, and is a considerable red zone threat. Expect top tier TE production from DiMirio.
13. Tegan Atwell - WR
Important stats: 70 catches, 1168 yards, 16.7 YPC, 3 TD
The newest Wraith, Atwell will take on a big role in their offense immediately. Looking to build chemistry with fellow new Wraith, QB Brad Pennington, expect continued volume performance. The TD opportunities should also be there as Atwell becomes the premier weapon.
14. Eric Kennedy - WR
Important stats: 78 catches, 1166 yards, 14.9 YPC, 5 TD
Atwell's teammate, Kennedy, should be a good threat in the Wraiths offense but his volume will take quite a hit from Atwell's addition. With QB Mat Akselsen moving to SJS though, and pocket passer Brad Pennington in, Kennedy might still be able to match last season's great numbers.
15. Budda Browning - WR
Important stats: 63 catches, 1086 yards, 17.2 YPC, 11 TD
I love Browning as a value pick in the second round after most others have stacked up on WRs. He's off the radar of most, and with LeClair leaving Baltimore he should get more volume. A speedy wideout, expect some really solid numbers and 1K+ yards again.
Round 3 Talent
16. Ryan Applehort - QB
Important stats: 4142 passing yards, 59.3%, 27 TD, 10 INT, 39 rushing yards, 0 rush TD
The 3rd QB off the board should be Applehort. Don't reach too high on him though if you don't end up with Maximus III or Blocksdale. Applehort marks a clear second tier of QBs available that is rather tightly bunched especially after team movement this past offseason from trades.
17. Ricky Adams - RB
Important stats: DSFL
Adams is gonna make his NSFL debut this season, and is expected to immediately be thrust into a bellcow back role after Yates retired. So expect a huge amount of volume from the power back. If Adams can meet even half of Yates' production in the receiving game, Adams could be a phenomenal steal this draft in the 3rd round.
18. NOLA Defense - DEF
Important stats: 197 Points Allowed, 22 INT, 56 Sacks, 8 FR
NOLA should continue to be the top defense this season. They allowed the least points by a wide margin, 43 points less than Baltimore. They also had the most interceptions in the league and drafted a top DL prospect in Lo Rax this past draft. Expect continued dominance worthy of a 3rd round pick.
19. Marquise Brown - RB
Important stats: DSFL
Brown should step up this season from the DSFL to a lead back role in Philadelphia. Although the Philly offense should continue to struggle to score this season, volume certainly counts and that's enough to keep Brown extremely fantasy relevant.
20. Dwayne Aaron - WR
Important stats: 74 catches, 1007 yards, 13.6 YPC, 7 TD
Aaron should be a great value pick here. He'll be the #2 target for the Yeti and continue to see good volume from the improving Applehort. Keep expectations modest, though, with Miller likely picking up some more TDs from Aaron.
21. Glenn McPoyal - TE
Important stats: 84 catches, 748 yards, 8.9 YPC, 1 TD
The next TE should be McPoyal. I might be ranking him too low because I don't value TEs much in fantasy, but he should play a decently prominent role in YKW. He might lose volume with Atwell's arrival, though, so he gets faded to the 3rd/4th.
Round 4 Talent
22. Alexandre LeClair - WR
Important stats: 63 catches, 937 yards, 14.9 YPC, 3 TD
LeClair makes the big move over to NOLA this offseason and should play a sizable role in their offense. Still, he's at best the #3 option on offense if not #4 behind Smallwood, Law, and DiMirio. Keep expectations very modest, as LeClair should be a solid FLEX.
23. Brad Pennington - QB
Important stats: 2889 passing yards, 59.4%, 13 TD, 18 INT, 27 rushing yards, 1 rush TD
Pennington immediately gets a bump despite having a terrible year last season, due to moving to YKW. He gets plenty of weapons in Kennedy and Atwell, as well as McPoyal at TE. Expect some solid performance, way better than last season at least.
24. Gus Showbiz - QB
Important stats: DSFL
Showbiz also lands in a good spot with OCO's offense with WRs Carlito Crush and Bradley Westfield. Offensive weapons are really important for QB performance, so Showbiz should have a really solid debut season.
25. Kevin Fitzpatrick - QB
Important stats: 2822 passing yards, 57.5%, 14 TD, 22 INT, 70 rushing yards, 0 rush TD
Fitzpatrick falls behind the 2 above him purely due to offensive system / weapons. The Outlaws don't surround Fitzpatrick with plenty of receiving threats. Although Fitzpatrick has solid attributes, he might still struggle. In this QB rush here with all 3 grouped together, don't be afraid to snag one of them if the rush starts early because you DO NOT want to be stuck with anyone after here really.
26. Mark Grau - RB
Important stats: 536 yards, 4.5 YPC, 1 rush TD, 43 catches, 371 yards, 4 TD
Grau had a disappointing season last year, serving in mostly a part-time role. With an archetype switch to power this offseason, too, I'm confused and have to fade Grau into the 4th round, or even later to be honest. Maybe Grau will have less TDs vultured this season through the switch, or maybe his receiving production will now die off. I'd stay away from Grau as your RB option. He's a good FLEX.
27. BAL Defense - DEF
Important stats: 240 Points Allowed, 12 INT, 53 Sacks, 7 FR
Baltimore could be the #2 defense this year. Or they might not be. I don't know, I'm not good at evaluating defenses. But they allowed the 2nd fewest points last season and seem to have some solid edge rushers and LB core.
Round 5 Talent
28. Mat Akselsen - QB
Important stats: 3183 passing yards, 58.9%, 18 TD, 12 INT, 562 rushing yards, 2 rush TD
Akselsen had a solid season last year fighting regression hard, but now on SJS expect his numbers to fall off the map. Don't get stuck with him as your QB, or you could have a really tough battle. The rushing numbers should keep his floor from being disastrous but it'll be rough. He should actually be the last pick in this guide since he'll be the last QB taken most likely, but I'll give him some respect for his career here and there's always a chance he surprises me.
29. COL Defense - DEF
Important stats: 347 Points Allowed, 12 INT, 63 Sacks, 11 FR
The points allowed are not great, but their offense should keep them off the field more this season with improvement. And the Yeti had the most sacks of any team last season.
30. YKW Defense - DEF
Important stats: 316 Points Allowed, 11 INT, 56 Sacks, 10 FR
They have a solid CB core and allowed the 3rd least points last season. Uhhh like I said I don't know about defensive rankings so take this with a grain of salt. All you should know is that defenses should be going around here.
Round 1 Talent
1. Darren Smallwood - RB
Important stats: 1534 yards, 4.2 YPC, 27 rush TD, 53 catches, 490 yards, 3 TD
Just take this guy #1. He's the clear top fantasy performer, and in this format with only 1 RB + 1 FLEX, you can't go wrong with the bellcow back on the league's reigning champion. He shattered the record for rushing TDs last season and should continue to punch it in even in regression.
2. Owen Taylor - RB
Important stats: 1385 yards, 4.2 YPC, 23 rush TD, 47 catches, 395 yards, 1 TD
He's sort of really the 1B, since he would've set the record for most rushing TDs if not for Smallwood. In regression, he should still be dominant and the Hawks are expected to still be a wildly successful team. Not as much of a threat in the passing game, but he's the bellcow back and position is so important in fantasy drafts.
3. Carlito Crush - WR
Important stats: 100 catches, 1532 yards, 15.3 YPC, 17 TD
The speedy wideout for the Otters should be the #1 or #2 WR off the board (more on that with the next pick). He should get even more volume in this Otters offense with Tegan Atwell leaving for YKW, and with Jordan Yates retired. Expect another career year here.
4. Trey Willie - WR
Important stats: 80 catches, 1366 yards, 17.1 YPC, 8 TD
With Alexander LeClair's departure from Baltimore, Willie should have the lion's share of targets in the entire offense. The league's highest TPE wideout will look to improve on last season's disappointing TD total, which might be why he's picked after Crush. With Blocksdale at the helm again and fighting regression easily, expect better performance this season.
5. Borkus Maximus III - QB
Important stats: 4563 passing yards, 59.9%, 33 TD, 9 INT, 140 rushing yards, 1 TD
NOLA's general should continue his ascent to becoming the premier QB in the NSFL. With a wide array of receiving threats including Charlie Law, Mayran Jackson, and Paul DiMirio, expect another strong season from the reigning champion, who is ever-improving. Having Smallwood in the backfield might take some TDs away from his ceiling, but Borkus has to be the #1 QB off the board.
6. Howard Miller - WR
Important stats: 77 catches, 1347 yards, 17.5 YPC, 6 TD
One of the best steals in fantasy last season, Miller is no secret this season. With his quarterback Ryan Applehort improving, Miller should continue to control the targets in the Yeti offense. The touchdowns are a disappointment, but maybe he'll have better luck this season which would uphold his lofty position as a first round talent.
7. Avon Blocksdale - QB
Important stats: 4517 passing yards, 63.3%, 26 TD, 12 INT, 28 rushing yards, 0 rush TD
Blocksdale continues to be an elite QB, fighting off regression easily. He remains as precise with his throws as ever. Losing LeClair in the offense will hurt, though, which makes Blocksdale teeter on the edge of being a strictly second round talent. But if Maximus III is gone early, don't be afraid to take the consensus #2 QB in the NSFL.
Round 2 Talent
8. Reg Mackworthy - RB
Important stats: 1497 yards, 4.1 YPC, 4 rush TD, 26 catches, 165 yards, 1 TD
This is where the draft gets way more open and interesting. Mackworthy is in a tough battle with regression and this could be the season where he falls off the cliff. But last season Mackworthy provided great value as the bell cow in the Outlaw offense. The Outlaws should improve too, with QB Kevin Fitzpatrick in his sophomore season, to provide Mackworthy more TD opportunities. Given positional scarcity, take Mackworthy but with considerable risk.
9. Robbie Rainey - RB
Important stats: 1024 yards, 3.7 YPC, 12 rush TD, 6 catches, 25 yards, 0 TD
Rainey is slightly inactive for YKW which is a problem. He did not do too well even in a shared role in the YKW backfield, being fairly inefficient compared to the bellcows. Rainey also provides no threat in the receiving game. But, this comes from positional scarcity and you expect YKW to set up Rainey with some opportunities to punch the ball in for some TDs.
10. Charlie Law - WR
Important stats: 69 catches, 1154 yards, 16.7 YPC, 11 TD
Law should be the top wideout in the NOLA offense this season. Expect him and Maximus III to continue their great chemistry, especially in the red zone. With WR Dustin Evans retirement, volume should increase for Law as well.
11. Verso L'Alto - TE
Important stats: 89 catches, 679 yards, 7.6 YPC, 3 TD
It will surprise some people that I rate L'Alto as a low second round talent, but the performance just was not there last season. You expect more TDs from a tight end on a team with a great offense like Baltimore. Still, L'Alto has a high ADP (average draft position) so this is around where he should be taken for fair value.
12. Paul DiMirio - TE
Important stats: 84 catches, 919 yards, 10.9 YPC, 6 TD
I actually rate DiMirio way more than L'Alto for this upcoming season but he comes behind based on ADP that I've seen. DiMirio should continue to see really high volume in the NOLA offense with WR Dustin Evans retiring, and is a considerable red zone threat. Expect top tier TE production from DiMirio.
13. Tegan Atwell - WR
Important stats: 70 catches, 1168 yards, 16.7 YPC, 3 TD
The newest Wraith, Atwell will take on a big role in their offense immediately. Looking to build chemistry with fellow new Wraith, QB Brad Pennington, expect continued volume performance. The TD opportunities should also be there as Atwell becomes the premier weapon.
14. Eric Kennedy - WR
Important stats: 78 catches, 1166 yards, 14.9 YPC, 5 TD
Atwell's teammate, Kennedy, should be a good threat in the Wraiths offense but his volume will take quite a hit from Atwell's addition. With QB Mat Akselsen moving to SJS though, and pocket passer Brad Pennington in, Kennedy might still be able to match last season's great numbers.
15. Budda Browning - WR
Important stats: 63 catches, 1086 yards, 17.2 YPC, 11 TD
I love Browning as a value pick in the second round after most others have stacked up on WRs. He's off the radar of most, and with LeClair leaving Baltimore he should get more volume. A speedy wideout, expect some really solid numbers and 1K+ yards again.
Round 3 Talent
16. Ryan Applehort - QB
Important stats: 4142 passing yards, 59.3%, 27 TD, 10 INT, 39 rushing yards, 0 rush TD
The 3rd QB off the board should be Applehort. Don't reach too high on him though if you don't end up with Maximus III or Blocksdale. Applehort marks a clear second tier of QBs available that is rather tightly bunched especially after team movement this past offseason from trades.
17. Ricky Adams - RB
Important stats: DSFL
Adams is gonna make his NSFL debut this season, and is expected to immediately be thrust into a bellcow back role after Yates retired. So expect a huge amount of volume from the power back. If Adams can meet even half of Yates' production in the receiving game, Adams could be a phenomenal steal this draft in the 3rd round.
18. NOLA Defense - DEF
Important stats: 197 Points Allowed, 22 INT, 56 Sacks, 8 FR
NOLA should continue to be the top defense this season. They allowed the least points by a wide margin, 43 points less than Baltimore. They also had the most interceptions in the league and drafted a top DL prospect in Lo Rax this past draft. Expect continued dominance worthy of a 3rd round pick.
19. Marquise Brown - RB
Important stats: DSFL
Brown should step up this season from the DSFL to a lead back role in Philadelphia. Although the Philly offense should continue to struggle to score this season, volume certainly counts and that's enough to keep Brown extremely fantasy relevant.
20. Dwayne Aaron - WR
Important stats: 74 catches, 1007 yards, 13.6 YPC, 7 TD
Aaron should be a great value pick here. He'll be the #2 target for the Yeti and continue to see good volume from the improving Applehort. Keep expectations modest, though, with Miller likely picking up some more TDs from Aaron.
21. Glenn McPoyal - TE
Important stats: 84 catches, 748 yards, 8.9 YPC, 1 TD
The next TE should be McPoyal. I might be ranking him too low because I don't value TEs much in fantasy, but he should play a decently prominent role in YKW. He might lose volume with Atwell's arrival, though, so he gets faded to the 3rd/4th.
Round 4 Talent
22. Alexandre LeClair - WR
Important stats: 63 catches, 937 yards, 14.9 YPC, 3 TD
LeClair makes the big move over to NOLA this offseason and should play a sizable role in their offense. Still, he's at best the #3 option on offense if not #4 behind Smallwood, Law, and DiMirio. Keep expectations very modest, as LeClair should be a solid FLEX.
23. Brad Pennington - QB
Important stats: 2889 passing yards, 59.4%, 13 TD, 18 INT, 27 rushing yards, 1 rush TD
Pennington immediately gets a bump despite having a terrible year last season, due to moving to YKW. He gets plenty of weapons in Kennedy and Atwell, as well as McPoyal at TE. Expect some solid performance, way better than last season at least.
24. Gus Showbiz - QB
Important stats: DSFL
Showbiz also lands in a good spot with OCO's offense with WRs Carlito Crush and Bradley Westfield. Offensive weapons are really important for QB performance, so Showbiz should have a really solid debut season.
25. Kevin Fitzpatrick - QB
Important stats: 2822 passing yards, 57.5%, 14 TD, 22 INT, 70 rushing yards, 0 rush TD
Fitzpatrick falls behind the 2 above him purely due to offensive system / weapons. The Outlaws don't surround Fitzpatrick with plenty of receiving threats. Although Fitzpatrick has solid attributes, he might still struggle. In this QB rush here with all 3 grouped together, don't be afraid to snag one of them if the rush starts early because you DO NOT want to be stuck with anyone after here really.
26. Mark Grau - RB
Important stats: 536 yards, 4.5 YPC, 1 rush TD, 43 catches, 371 yards, 4 TD
Grau had a disappointing season last year, serving in mostly a part-time role. With an archetype switch to power this offseason, too, I'm confused and have to fade Grau into the 4th round, or even later to be honest. Maybe Grau will have less TDs vultured this season through the switch, or maybe his receiving production will now die off. I'd stay away from Grau as your RB option. He's a good FLEX.
27. BAL Defense - DEF
Important stats: 240 Points Allowed, 12 INT, 53 Sacks, 7 FR
Baltimore could be the #2 defense this year. Or they might not be. I don't know, I'm not good at evaluating defenses. But they allowed the 2nd fewest points last season and seem to have some solid edge rushers and LB core.
Round 5 Talent
28. Mat Akselsen - QB
Important stats: 3183 passing yards, 58.9%, 18 TD, 12 INT, 562 rushing yards, 2 rush TD
Akselsen had a solid season last year fighting regression hard, but now on SJS expect his numbers to fall off the map. Don't get stuck with him as your QB, or you could have a really tough battle. The rushing numbers should keep his floor from being disastrous but it'll be rough. He should actually be the last pick in this guide since he'll be the last QB taken most likely, but I'll give him some respect for his career here and there's always a chance he surprises me.
29. COL Defense - DEF
Important stats: 347 Points Allowed, 12 INT, 63 Sacks, 11 FR
The points allowed are not great, but their offense should keep them off the field more this season with improvement. And the Yeti had the most sacks of any team last season.
30. YKW Defense - DEF
Important stats: 316 Points Allowed, 11 INT, 56 Sacks, 10 FR
They have a solid CB core and allowed the 3rd least points last season. Uhhh like I said I don't know about defensive rankings so take this with a grain of salt. All you should know is that defenses should be going around here.
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