S14 NSFL Fantasy Roundup
Today I’ll be breaking down NSFL Fantasy Football for this past season and providing visualizations to further demonstrate where players are succeeding and failing so far. If you want to know who was and who was cold this season, then this is a detailed analysis of that.
Because it’s not glamorous or exciting in any way, shape, or form, I won’t be covering Defenses or Kickers in this article.
Quarterbacks
What a season from some of these NSFL QBs. Five of the league’s eight QBs put in phenomenal fantasy efforts (unfortunately there are six to a fantasy group). The other three managed to organize themselves into tiers 2, 3, and 4 all by themselves. As you can see below, the top tier of QBs (Christ, McCormick, Gambino, Maximus III, and Gambino) are all relatively closely grouped and within three fantasy points per game of each other. After that you see Falconi some ways back followed by Applehort some ways further back, and converted defensive lineman Andrew Reese way back in last place among the QBs. This season, if you didn’t get one of the top tier QBs, you probably struggled. Unless of course you made up for it in other positions.
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When you ask what the key to success for NSFL QBs in fantasy, it becomes clear that the ability to run the ball is a huge advantage. Joliet Christ threw the same number of TD passes as Adriana Falconi, yet had nearly one-hundred more fantasy points. The same can be said for Borkus Maximus III and Ryan Applehort. Same amount of TD passes, but over 110 more fantasy points for Bork. The one thing that all of the low tier QBs had in common? They had almost no production running the ball, and not one of them registered a rushing TD. The same trend can be seen with Gus T.T. Showbiz, he led the league in TD passes, but didn’t have much success running the football either and was QB5 in terms of fantasy production this year. Without the 470 yard, 7 TD game he had against Arizona, Showbiz lands himself outside of that top tier QB discussion. Showbiz owners who had success in fantasy this season, send an Outlaw a thank you when you get a chance. They may have saved your season.
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Running Backs
Running back was the feast or famine position in fantasy this year. This position has three clear blue chip players in a league where every team needs one (or more if you’re lucky). Noted rule bender Marquise Brown continues his romp through NSFL defenses this season as he was the clear cut top fantasy back this season (look at that red hot graphical representation). Even blue chip RBs like Dick Wizardry and Slim Shady were unable to keep pace with him this year. Despite their great numbers, Wizardry and Shady make up tier 2, as Brown is in a tier of his own right now. Beyond them you find a slew of lesser talents who put up middling production at the position. I think it’s a good year to have players like Morgan Marshall, Forrest Gump, Terry Taffy, Ludicolo Bigby, and the boys from Norfolk all entering the draft at RB, because there is a real need for talented playmakers at the position in the NSFL.
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Oddly enough, the trend of talented receiving backs being the way to go doesn’t appear to hold strong through an entire season. While the top three backs are still in the top four of receiving production, the biggest differentiator at the RB position is undoubtedly volume. Marquise Brown had the most touches of all RBs this year between his whopping 368 carries and 62 receptions. Shady was second, with 419 touches, and Wizardry was third with 357 total touches. The ability to find the end zone consistently is also a huge success indicator, as the massive gulf between Marquise Brown and the field is primarily due to him finding the end zone seemingly at will last season. Look for running backs who will play large roles in juggernaut offenses next season. Brown is ample evidence that it is a recipe for fantasy success.
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Wide Receivers
Nothing has convinced me more that receiver is a luxury position in NSFL fantasy than this season. As long as you can get a single star receiver I believe you’ll be in good shape. I think that this is primarily the sim’s fault. If receivers could run away from defenses the way RBs can, I think we’d be seeing much different results from some of these receivers. However, the fact remains that even if you had Bush and Valentine, another owner having an elite Tight End, Flex Back, or Running Back while you have an average player at just one of those positions will cancel out that production. I’d say anyone from Hardwick up is safe WR1 territory for a player, as the 35 extra points you’d get using an early pick on Fyodo or Oles (less than 3 ppg) aren’t necessarily worth the production you’d be giving up.
As important as the wide receiver position is for an NSFL GM, it doesn’t necessarily translate to fantasy. I repeat. As important as the wide receiver position is for an NSFL GM, it doesn’t necessarily translate to fantasy.
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I used a bar graph in my week 1-4 analysis that showed which teams utilized their receivers the most, Unfortunately, roster changes has essentially rendered that visualization useless. Now it basically shows you the odds that you get productive receiver from a team if you were to pick one of their players at random. Basically, it could be useful for next season’s rookies, so I left it in this report, but if you try to derive value from it as someone with knowledge of the league, you probably won’t find much.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"] [/div]
The new chart above shows a much more accurate representation of teams’ usage of their receivers. Arizona, New Orleans, and Colorado got the bulk of their production from other positions (Shady, Swift, and Crindy). Meanwhile, Baltimore had the most WR production. Pretty unsurprising considering the tons of talent they have at that position now. Philly got outstanding production as well, primarily from Carter Bush and Jordan Von Matt. Other standout receivers include Carlito Crush (who knows how big his role will be next year), Kazimir Oles, Fyodo, and breakout performer James Bishop from Colorado.
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Tight Ends/Flex Backs
Now this is where we get into the fantasy make or break business. This is the meat and potatoes of any fantasy owner. This is where the points are scored. Now I want to stress the importance of having versatile performers at FB who can slot in at RB or TE for your team. Can’t get one of the top four backs? Go draft Ricky Adams. Need an elite TE? L’Alto, he’s pretty good, but WHY NOT RICKY ADAMS? I don’t know if the inactive Balthazar can match the magic that he captured this season, but I also projected Zapp Branigan to outproduce him in my week 4 analysis so what the hell do I know. We’re all blessed to have witnessed the magisterial effort from Crindy in the final ten games of the season. The top end options here are great. Get yourself on early. The drop off is pretty steep so again I stress the value of getting one of Adams, Swift, Boija, L’Alto, or even Crindy if you want to use an early pick on a high risk/high reward player.
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This has been my fantasy wrap-up for the season. Look for another edition next year.
Today I’ll be breaking down NSFL Fantasy Football for this past season and providing visualizations to further demonstrate where players are succeeding and failing so far. If you want to know who was and who was cold this season, then this is a detailed analysis of that.
Because it’s not glamorous or exciting in any way, shape, or form, I won’t be covering Defenses or Kickers in this article.
Quarterbacks
What a season from some of these NSFL QBs. Five of the league’s eight QBs put in phenomenal fantasy efforts (unfortunately there are six to a fantasy group). The other three managed to organize themselves into tiers 2, 3, and 4 all by themselves. As you can see below, the top tier of QBs (Christ, McCormick, Gambino, Maximus III, and Gambino) are all relatively closely grouped and within three fantasy points per game of each other. After that you see Falconi some ways back followed by Applehort some ways further back, and converted defensive lineman Andrew Reese way back in last place among the QBs. This season, if you didn’t get one of the top tier QBs, you probably struggled. Unless of course you made up for it in other positions.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"][/div]
When you ask what the key to success for NSFL QBs in fantasy, it becomes clear that the ability to run the ball is a huge advantage. Joliet Christ threw the same number of TD passes as Adriana Falconi, yet had nearly one-hundred more fantasy points. The same can be said for Borkus Maximus III and Ryan Applehort. Same amount of TD passes, but over 110 more fantasy points for Bork. The one thing that all of the low tier QBs had in common? They had almost no production running the ball, and not one of them registered a rushing TD. The same trend can be seen with Gus T.T. Showbiz, he led the league in TD passes, but didn’t have much success running the football either and was QB5 in terms of fantasy production this year. Without the 470 yard, 7 TD game he had against Arizona, Showbiz lands himself outside of that top tier QB discussion. Showbiz owners who had success in fantasy this season, send an Outlaw a thank you when you get a chance. They may have saved your season.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"][/div]
Running Backs
Running back was the feast or famine position in fantasy this year. This position has three clear blue chip players in a league where every team needs one (or more if you’re lucky). Noted rule bender Marquise Brown continues his romp through NSFL defenses this season as he was the clear cut top fantasy back this season (look at that red hot graphical representation). Even blue chip RBs like Dick Wizardry and Slim Shady were unable to keep pace with him this year. Despite their great numbers, Wizardry and Shady make up tier 2, as Brown is in a tier of his own right now. Beyond them you find a slew of lesser talents who put up middling production at the position. I think it’s a good year to have players like Morgan Marshall, Forrest Gump, Terry Taffy, Ludicolo Bigby, and the boys from Norfolk all entering the draft at RB, because there is a real need for talented playmakers at the position in the NSFL.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"][/div]
Oddly enough, the trend of talented receiving backs being the way to go doesn’t appear to hold strong through an entire season. While the top three backs are still in the top four of receiving production, the biggest differentiator at the RB position is undoubtedly volume. Marquise Brown had the most touches of all RBs this year between his whopping 368 carries and 62 receptions. Shady was second, with 419 touches, and Wizardry was third with 357 total touches. The ability to find the end zone consistently is also a huge success indicator, as the massive gulf between Marquise Brown and the field is primarily due to him finding the end zone seemingly at will last season. Look for running backs who will play large roles in juggernaut offenses next season. Brown is ample evidence that it is a recipe for fantasy success.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"][/div]
Wide Receivers
Nothing has convinced me more that receiver is a luxury position in NSFL fantasy than this season. As long as you can get a single star receiver I believe you’ll be in good shape. I think that this is primarily the sim’s fault. If receivers could run away from defenses the way RBs can, I think we’d be seeing much different results from some of these receivers. However, the fact remains that even if you had Bush and Valentine, another owner having an elite Tight End, Flex Back, or Running Back while you have an average player at just one of those positions will cancel out that production. I’d say anyone from Hardwick up is safe WR1 territory for a player, as the 35 extra points you’d get using an early pick on Fyodo or Oles (less than 3 ppg) aren’t necessarily worth the production you’d be giving up.
As important as the wide receiver position is for an NSFL GM, it doesn’t necessarily translate to fantasy. I repeat. As important as the wide receiver position is for an NSFL GM, it doesn’t necessarily translate to fantasy.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"][/div]
I used a bar graph in my week 1-4 analysis that showed which teams utilized their receivers the most, Unfortunately, roster changes has essentially rendered that visualization useless. Now it basically shows you the odds that you get productive receiver from a team if you were to pick one of their players at random. Basically, it could be useful for next season’s rookies, so I left it in this report, but if you try to derive value from it as someone with knowledge of the league, you probably won’t find much.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"] [/div]
The new chart above shows a much more accurate representation of teams’ usage of their receivers. Arizona, New Orleans, and Colorado got the bulk of their production from other positions (Shady, Swift, and Crindy). Meanwhile, Baltimore had the most WR production. Pretty unsurprising considering the tons of talent they have at that position now. Philly got outstanding production as well, primarily from Carter Bush and Jordan Von Matt. Other standout receivers include Carlito Crush (who knows how big his role will be next year), Kazimir Oles, Fyodo, and breakout performer James Bishop from Colorado.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"][/div]
Tight Ends/Flex Backs
Now this is where we get into the fantasy make or break business. This is the meat and potatoes of any fantasy owner. This is where the points are scored. Now I want to stress the importance of having versatile performers at FB who can slot in at RB or TE for your team. Can’t get one of the top four backs? Go draft Ricky Adams. Need an elite TE? L’Alto, he’s pretty good, but WHY NOT RICKY ADAMS? I don’t know if the inactive Balthazar can match the magic that he captured this season, but I also projected Zapp Branigan to outproduce him in my week 4 analysis so what the hell do I know. We’re all blessed to have witnessed the magisterial effort from Crindy in the final ten games of the season. The top end options here are great. Get yourself on early. The drop off is pretty steep so again I stress the value of getting one of Adams, Swift, Boija, L’Alto, or even Crindy if you want to use an early pick on a high risk/high reward player.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"][/div]
This has been my fantasy wrap-up for the season. Look for another edition next year.