Introduction
I'll be taking a look at likely protections by teams in the upcoming expansion draft and then do a mock with those. These protections are primarily based on team need and TPE but some are informed by what I've heard about player preferences. The biggest unknown that I have an an outsider to the NSFL teams is which players are actually willing/not willing to join an expansion team and general personalities/past interactions with GMs. It's easy for one person to have higher TPE or be a better fit on paper for the team but if one of the expansion GMs thinks that player is no fun then it clearly decreases the chance of getting picked. I tried to gather some information on team fit and if people were interested in leaving for an expansion team or to stay, but it's certainly incomplete and may also include intentional misinformation.
I include contract terms information but presume that all FAs that teams wanted to protect would have some set of terms that teams could agree too. I started trying to figure out cap options for future contracts and rapidly went insane, so it's possible that some FAs that I figure would be protected are actually destined for cap casualties. I'm sorry for any errors of that nature. I also mostly didn't consider cap aspects of the expansion trade in piecing together rosters but it's certainly something the expansion GMs will have to be keeping in mind. I did limit the expansion teams to not drafting any active FAs, however. It's possible that some of those players will sign extensions before the draft but I don't have a good enough sense of player/team interest to do a good feel on that and so just blocked them all instead.
Picture explanations
(all thumbnails clickable for bigger versions)
Color key for pictures:
Red: GM of a non-expansion team
Blue: S21 protected player
Grey: Announced retirement as of about 7pm pacific on 3/31.
Yellow: GM-to-be of
Green: GM-to-be of
Column key for what's not on the TPE tracker
"Contract" is the last year of the player's contract as of about 3/30 according mostly to the contract tracking sheet with some looking at the transaction forum.
"Lost" is when the players were taken (pre-mock only shown)
"Protecc" is which players I have as protected in roughly priority order.
"TPE in position" ranks each player's current TPE (as of ~6pm pacific 3/30) vs. other unprotected players in that position. So eg for QB if there are 2, one with 65 TPE and the other with 50, the 65 TPE player would have a '1' for TPE in position while the 50 TPE player would have a '2'.
Team breakdowns
![[Image: dY3fu16l.png]](http://i.imgur.com/dY3fu16l.png)
Arizona has a good looking S21 class and enough protection to cover most of their higher TPE and active players. RB Ruff is IA but not officially retired - but with 2036's official cutest RB Yoda waiting in the wings I think they'll allow Ruff to be uncovered. The other top 2 picks on the team are 800 TPE and inactive free agent Irving and active but lower TPE DT Masters. If the Outlaws' leadership thinks that keeping Irving around is key for S22 despite his upcoming regression I could see protecting him over DT Masters, but I see keeping the active player to be a priority. WR Bur'Berry is also on the fence as a fiarly active S20 player, but he's a lot deeper down the lists for his position. I think Arizona hopes that Irving is taken and then protects Bur'Berry.
![[Image: MBVdXLnl.png]](http://i.imgur.com/MBVdXLnl.png)
Austin's looking at a lot of good offense without the ability to protect them and keep a good defense at the same time. My read is them focusing on the offense centered around the GMs with S15 WR Tidwell over S16 TE Larson and S15 S Jensen as the final decision. S20 S Sexjoke is natural consideration to consider protecting as well, but that's a name that's been in the news for expansion GM a few times and so I'm leaving off protection with the assumption that there could be some interest in playing for an expansion team.
![[Image: YLFOglml.png]](http://i.imgur.com/YLFOglml.png)
With the bonus protection from losing QB Havran I think they keep their top actives aside from S10 CB Troyski and S11 K/P Fulture who seem reasonably likely to retire. The big exception is S18 DE Baldari. I heard that Baldari might be interested in checking out the expansion situation and so calling him unprotected due to player choice, especially given that he has a player option for this year. That rumor might be wrong or the management might try to talk him into staying, but we'll see.
I have them protecting S15 S Uchiha who seems mostly inactive over Baldari but if Baldari doesn't want out, that would flip. I also have them protecting S12 WR Maddox who seems quite active with still nearly 1k TPE before this year's regression. Maddox is an FA, but there's not really any other unprotected actives outside of S10 CB Toryski and S11 K/P Fulture who I think are likely more on the retiring side of things.
![[Image: BIrgrrul.png]](http://i.imgur.com/BIrgrrul.png)
Chicago is facing a bit of a rapidly changing situation, but they do seem to have a plausible core of actives to move forward with. There's a lot of unknowns that I have as an outsider - does S14 QB Jenkins see enough of a chance to stay around rather than retiring in a second year of regression? Have S15 RB Leaf Jr.'s concerns with management been put to rest? Is S18 DT Harding actually back and going to be active? The answers to those as well as what kind of timeline the new management wants to hit for competitive peak will greatly influence the decisions for protection.
I'm going to assume that all players from S14 or more recently remain around and that there's interest and willingness in keeping the offensive core of Jenkins/Leaf Jr./Hank. I'm calling protection of S18 DT Harding over S12 DT Skarsgard but that's assuming that Harding wants to be around and active. Skarsgard is the top DT option if left unprotected, but with the regression that comes from being S12 I think Chicago gambles that the expansion teams are looking past S22 and don't take him. If Harding isn't planning on being active, I'd expect those protections to flip.
And finally, if I'm putting my game theory hat on, I could see Chicago taking on more risk and not protecting QB Jenkins. Given the recent HO run-ins and leadership situation plus Honolulu already having a QB, I think there's a chance that the Butchers think that Sarasota would prefer to build around a younger QB and wouldn't take Jenkins even if available due to age and past controversy. But, keeping the game theory hat on, I could see one of the teams still making the pick just to try and force a trade back from Chicago given their lack of a backup QB. I think Chicago doesn't take the risk, but I feel like it's an interesting strategic move to consider.
![[Image: Tzlozdbl.png]](http://i.imgur.com/Tzlozdbl.png)
Colorado have some great team depth with a bunch of S18 high earners which unfortunately means that they won't be able to protect everyone. I'm figuring on none of the S15 or older players outside of the required GM S15 LB Berry get protected but don't feel confident about it. S17 RB Owens is a free agent who hasn't updated since 3/7 but who is still around - I could easily see protecting S12 WR Bishop or S18 TE Sauce if there isn't a meeting of the minds with the FA to be. S15 LB Gabagool is another tempting protection target but with one of the GMs being also an S15 LB, I'm proposing they take the chance on breaking the duo up to start.
![[Image: PKHYXbNl.png]](http://i.imgur.com/PKHYXbNl.png)
The second line is another deep team who actually have a high percentage of players. The number one question to me, though, is who's going to retire? Both GMs will be in regression with S14 QB Francisco in his second year. Especially in the case where New Orleans gets back their early season momentum and wins the Ulti I could see one or both GMs retiring, taking the chance to reconsolidate around their younger players. However, the lack of a backup QB on the roster outside of presumptive retiree S15 Jaroppolo makes that a risky option even with persistent swirlings of S22 QB Slothlisberger being the plan for the future.
Assuming neither GM retires, I see NOLA protecting only players from S18 and 19. That leaves a trio of great S15 players open in the form of OL Ulysses, LB Bode, and CB Taylor, but I don't know what else they can do.
Both my mock pool and the S22 draft class are deep in CB so I Have no protection on them, thinking that they'll hope to lose at most 1. Additionally, with a GM at RB and S21 Barker in the DSFL, I could see taking the risk of not protecting Toriki and going for one of the CBs or S19 WR Podolak instead. I could see the argument to also not protect S19 TE McCormick given S21 TE Wolfcastle in the DSFL but McCormick is the top earning from that year which seems pretty convincing of an argument for protection to me. And finally, I heard that S18 DT Ironside might be interested in going to an expansion team but that leaves the defensive line in a dire state with DT Faux retiring after the season. If the player wants to go you might want to let him rather than have anger in the LR, but from a pure scheme perspective that has got to hurt. But, in the case where the team wins the Ulti this year and one or two GMs do retire, I could see playing a rookie QB in S22 and focusing on S23 and so letting Ironside go to keep younger players around.
![[Image: tniLMSMl.png]](http://i.imgur.com/tniLMSMl.png)
Orange County I think would be trivial to mock out if they had 8 protections. With 7, though, I think they have to make an excruciatingly tough choice between which one of S17 WR Banks II, S19 CB Dream, and S15 CB Lattimer they don't protect. S15 K/P Dasistwcopyandpastehisname I think is fairly safe despite being the top kicker in the league. Kickers stereotypically don't need much in the way of TPE so he could be fine even with a year or two of regression, but in a deep rookie draft I think the expansion teams would rather look there.
So getting back to the tough decisions, S17 WR Banks is a season and 260 TPE behind top WR Mongo. With S21 WR Kurisuto on the roster, I could see the argument that Banks is expendable. For the CB position, S18 Abernathy is a must-keep as GM which means one of the DBs might be expendable. The other GM S18 S Biggums has S21 rookie Vegeta on the team, which means 3 DB positions are already locked up. So, could S15 Lattimer or S19 Dream be on the chopping block? Between the two, I think Dream is the first option with Lattimer entering regression. Even if losing Lattimer hurts the Otters more this year, I think the expansion teams would jump on a younger player like Dream and so I think he has to be protected. The S22 draft class is fairly deep at CB so maybe the team feels like they could take a risk?
I ultimately went with leaving WR Banks unprotected with the final tiebreaker being a contract that goes through S22 as compared to Lattimer's S24.
(Having mentioned that, I will also mention that S15 LB Grievous also only has a contract through S22, but as the 3rd highest TPE player on the team I figure he's a more likely keep. If S21 LB Scott was higher in TPE earning I might have reconsidered, though).
![[Image: adwwKpDl.png]](http://i.imgur.com/adwwKpDl.png)
When I said earlier that I wasn't going to talk about cap space, I lied. The absurd extension they agreed to today with S19 TE Blocksdale Jr. looks very obviously to me liek a way of making him radioactive to any expansion team while technically not breaking the rules as I understand them.
(For anyone who doesn't want to click on the link, the contract is S22 for $2m and player option for S23 for $30m)
So the way I read the contract, they're trying to ensure that Blocksdale's cap his is high enough in S23 that the expansion teams can't afford to take him in the case where he'd exercise the option. Wearing my game theory hat, that contract makes sense as a way to use good cap planning to protect an extra player. Wearing my spirit of the rules hat, that seems like garbage that should clearly be voided. Wearing my analysis hat, I think that's an interesting idea and I'm looking forward to see if HO lets it stand as I think it technically doesn't violate any rules. But, after their earlier contract term of 'GM must do the player's updates' was struck down, I don't know what to expect.
Ignoring the contract for the moment, I think Philly's decisions are mainly between protecting their top S15 players who will be entering regression vs. their younger and high earning players. S19 QB Phoenix and S16 RB Torenson seem like obvious keeps as the key of an offense and then I project keeping Varga to have a top receiving threat in the next year. For defense, I'm projecting protecting keeping the S15 S pair of D'Attoria V and McKinnie. The last (non-contract) protection I figure will get used on S20 WR Vuxta. As a fairly high earning younger player, I see him being the choice over S15 CB Emoji who's slated to be a free agent at the end of this year, will be entering regression, and doesn't have any TPE updates since January. Emoji actually seems like a high candidate for retirement, but I haven't see a post about it.
This plan also doesn't protect S20 K/P Powers, but again I don't think the position is a high pick for the expansion teams and the Liberty also has S21 K/P Louis in the DSFL as a backup option. Along with the near-certain undraftability of of Blocksdle and S21 DSFL RB Panda, I think Philly has a fairly promising offensive setup going into S22.
![[Image: 1pTqiKUl.png]](http://i.imgur.com/1pTqiKUl.png)
San Jose has the mixed fortune of being able to protect every player on their roster with an update in the month of March with their seven protections. That's not all bad - they have 4 fairly high earning rookies looking to set up for a future. GM and pending free agent S12 S Staley seems like a possible recreate at the end of the season to try and hit the S23 wave that the team looks to be aiming for, but I could see trying to play one more season given the status of possibly being the highest TPE DB on the team. Given even odds I'd take retirement and then maybe protecting S12 DT Riposte, but I don't think keeping vs. losing Riposte next year is a key factor for the team with the S21 rookie DE pair of Otle and Noble Jr. joining the DT pair of S17 Ennis and S21 Allen.
![[Image: KC5K7fMl.png]](http://i.imgur.com/KC5K7fMl.png)
The Wraiths start the draft mostly done after losing 2 future GMs from their ranks before it even starts. That gives them enough protection to keep their younger core but there's still a few interesting decisions on which older players to protect. This is another case which will be deeply influenced by which players are planning to retire after the season is over. I'm projecting here that S14 QB Bigsby, S13 WR Swift, S15 DT Kroustis, and S13 CB Snuggles all stay around and therefore get protected. S10 S Grithead is still active and could even possibly be good enough to start on the team next year next to S21 S Bois, but being an FA and at a very low TPE after regression that seems unlikely. However, I think that also means a low chance of being selected by the expansion teams given that they'd get probably at most 1 useful year of play.
Mock expansion draft
Obviously this mock draft depends heavily on the protection lists and the top picks have a high chance of being off. The high picks being off means that the low picks will be addressing different needs, and so I expect a low accuracy. But hey it's still fun.
And as a brief reminder:
- S21 RB Frost and S19 WR Gordon
- S23 DT Ka'ana'ana and S14 QB Havran
R1 P1 -
S18 CB David Rector, 858 TPE,
To me this is a kind of 'build a team for the future past S22' pick over higher statted S15 players. Between S17 WR Banks and Rector, I have Sarasota taking the player that doesn't match their GM and additionally a defensive player to go with their two GMs on the offensive side of the ball. I think this makes the next pick probably Banks II on the Otters, but I don't think the Sailfish are looking for any of the players there as early picks.
NOLA (1 taken) protect - S19 WR Podolak
This leaves S15 LB Bode at over 1k TPE on the board still, but I think they focus on protecting youth still.
R1 P2 -
S17 WR Dexter Banks II, 871 TPE,
Havran's going to want to throw to someone and Banks is a top WR. S17 is a nice bridge on the offensive side of the ball from the S14 QB. I could see Honolulu trying to wait a round here since I don't think there are any Otters players high on Sarasota's list, but I could see that backfiring is Sarasota just double down on WR by taking Banks themselves, or alternatively going for some younger talent like DE Boucher which probably protects Banks.
OCO (1 taken) protect - S20 DE Boucher
DE is shallow in the expansion with Boucher having the 5th highest TPE of unprotected players. His earn rate isn't record-setting, but I think it's between him and S15 IA FA RB Bigby so I think you keep the active player.
R2 P1 -
S18 DE Fabricio Baldari, 599 TPE,
If Baldari really does have an interest in going to an expansion team, I assume his current teammate Havran would have heard about it. Baldari is the top DE on the board with some steep falloff after him and going defense after offense makes sense to me.
Baltimore (2 taken) protect - S14 LB Bakshi
IA Bakshi seems like he'll have a little more TPE then IA S15 LB Nikko so I make the pick that way.
R2 P2 -
S20 S Awkward Sexjoke, 436 TPE,
At this point, Baltimore and Yellowknife are all at 2 players taken. I don't think Sarasota wants anyone available on Baltimore. S19 DE Kearse on the Wraiths is an interesting option as one of the better DEs left at 394 TPE but he's currently a free agent. Assuming nothing changes, I think that means he couldn't be drafted (but also couldn't sign back with the Wraiths). If he signs with the Wraiths, I have the Sailfish taking him here for the youth at a position which is a little less deep, especially as members of the same locker room. They could also go with S18 DE Ocewilder if they think that DE is the right position, but I have them going Safety since Honolulu just grabbed a DE. If Sexjoke isn't available, I think they fall back to S20 S Kirkby at nearly the same TPE.
AUS (1 taken) protect - S16 TE Larson
This could easily go to S20 CB Moreno if Austin wants to protect their youth more but he looks less active and is signed though S22 vs. Larson's S24.
R3 P1 -
S19 LB Mack Arianlacher, 529 TPE,
S18 CB Adams and S18 TE Sauce are also tempting here, but having already picked up a CB I think the Sarasota diversifies their defensive options. If they do take Kearse with the prior pick, I could see one of the safety options from above here instead.
NOLA (2 taken) protect - S18 CB Adams
I think the Second Line helps protect their youth more here after losing 2 young defenders. This leaves a few of their players with higher TPE on the offense open, but with a higher season count I think the team figures it's lower risk.
R3 P2 -
S20 S Thor Kirkby, 399 TPE,
Honolulu also goes for a young DB after a few older players before. Kirkby barely trails Sexjoke in TPE earning and seems like a good DB option.
COL (1 taken) protect - S18 DE Ocewilder
This draft is remarkably short on active D-line and I think that means Ocewilder is more attractive than S18 RB Vincent, S18 TE Sauce, and S15 LB Gabagool. Plus, Colorado is losing S21 DT Smirh to Chicago leaving them with only 3 D-lineman on the team with no DSFL prospects.
R4 P1 -
S18 TE Earl Sauce, 666 TPE,
Suace is the third highest TE TPE-wise and another useful weapon for QB Havran. If Philly's Blocksdale was a plausible option I could see the 1 season younger player being preferred over the higher TPE Sauce but I think it's highly unlikely given the contract situation.
COL (2 taken) protect - S15 LB Gabagool
S18 RB Vincent is I think still the other option but he looks a bit less active and there's a two higher TPE (though admittedly less active) S18 running backs than Vincent.
R4 P2 -
S15 LB Quenton Bode, 1233 TPE,
At this point seeing how the D-line situation is actually playing out, I considered going back to an earlier round and re-picking. I didn't end up doing that though because I've heard pretty consistently that people think D-line can play effectively at lower TPE amounts and so I'm thinking Sarasota will put faith in the rookie draft and not prioritize the line. If they did, though, I'd want to see what level of activity to expect out of S19 DE Lazer-Eyes and S20 DE Fassingit. Tight end also looks like it may be a pass for Sarasota with Larson protected, Sauce taken, and Blocksdale effectively untakeable. S20 TE Gragg is available at 185 TPE but I think Sarasota hope to be able to draft that level of earning. So instead, I'm picking the Sailfish to switch up their strategy and just take S15 LB Bode as the player with the most TPE available. A strong LB corps can help make up for weaker line play and even a season of regression leaves Bode possibly as the best player on the field for the team.
NOLA (3 taken) protect - everyone
R5 P1 -
S20 DE Hal Fassingit, 233 TPE,
Sailfish take a little bit of a risk on a player with low TPE earning but take a risk if they think they can help out with increasing the earn rate. S20 LB Stephens could also be interesting, but they have 2 LBs already and try to get a backup option for DL if the rookie draft doesn't go the way they want. S18 DE Franchet from Philly could be an interesting pick too but Fassingit is 2 seasons younger and 72 TPE behind so I give the nod to the younger player.
AUS (2 taken) protect - S20 CB Moreno
The Outlaws are looking at some less active people to protect at this point and I have them protecting Moreno over Clay given their 3 WRs on roster vs. 2 CBs, especially after losing a safety.
R5 P2 -
S20 LB Warren Stephens, 379 TPE,
Honolulu gets their first LB with a solid S20 earner. That also gives them one player in each defensive position (DL/LB/DB), giving them a good start.
PHL (1 taken) protect - S18 DE Franchet
With even lower TPE D-line as possibly a hot commodity, the Liberty try to ensure they don't further deplete an already bare-bones line.
R6 P1 -
S20 WR Jah Bur’Berry, 409 TPE,
While they don't have a running back yet, I think the Hahalua can safely ignore that position for now given the Sailfish's lack of need for one. So instead, I see them picking up a second WR on the younger side. Bur'Berry is the highest of the 3 S20 players they've drafted, too.
ARI (1 taken) protect - S15 TE Irving
After losing one receiver I think they protect another. Irving after regression will still be at 640 TPE and so I think he's a priority over the somewhat inactive Ruff at RB and mostly inactive Culbertson at DT given S21 prospects RB Yoda and DT Arc.
R6 P2 -
S18 WR Jake Dropson, 456 TPE,
Having taken only defensive players so far, I think the Sailfish finally make a move to get some more weapons to move the ball. With no active running backs on the board, I have to think that Sarasota takes a long look at the board. I considered S20 TE Gragg, but since Honolulu already have a TE I think they wait a bit longer. Dropson hasn't updated since November of 2019 but has been around the forums, so I gamble on the leadership in Florida thinking they can get Dropson back to active. If not, I think they take S20 WR Clay from the Outlaws - Clay's also not updated for a little while but has been around.
PHL (2 taken) protect - S20 K/P Powers
I think this choice is between Powers and the hasn't updated since 2/29 RB Dotson. Actives are inherently valuable so I think they hold onto Powers, especially with S21 RB Panda as a backup option.
R7 P1 -
S18 RB Fuzzy Dotson, 541 TPE,
Again considered Clay here. Dotson has also been around but not updating. On pure player needs match I think Clay is the pick, but Honolulu has no RBs and 2 WRs so I think Dotson is the strategic pick to make.
PHL (3 taken) protect - everyone
R7 P2 -
S17 S Takeda Okura, 334 TPE,
Again thinking strategically, I think the Hahalua can ignore RB for now, figuring that the Sailfish won't want a 3rd. So instead, I have them looking to defense. Teams need a few DBs and cornerback is looking rough for actives, so I pick the active but low earning Okura.
AUS (3 taken) protect - everyone
R8 P1 -
S18 RB Michael Vincent, 446 TPE,
Despite feeling like Honolulu could pass on RB for a round or two, I have them taking Vincent here to ensure that Colorado doesn't have a 3rd player taken by Sarasota. Vincent seems like the most active option of the top RBs left.
COL (3 taken) protect - everyone
R8 P2 -
S12 DT Thorian Skarsgard, 756 TPE,
Skarsgard is one of the oldest eligible players in the expansion draft and were I the Sarasota GMs I'd definitely want to have a chat before making this pick, but as an active player in an area that would be useful, this could be a good pick. It definitely goes against the overall youth movement I'd expect out of the expansion teams, but if the new GMs can sell a team vision then they could get paid off with a player who wants to play for their team after recreation. And if not, they should still get a year out of a DT with higher TPE than most draftees who hopefully will be a good locker room presence as they establish their new team.
CHI (1 taken) protect - S19 S Beat
With a lower number of actives, Chicago gets one covered with this protection.
R9 P1 -
S15 K/P Dasistwcopyandpastehisname, 641 TPE,
Having now 2 players at each of d-line, LB, and DB, I think the Sailfish GMs will be torn between trying to fill out positions and finding active players. TE and DB are both below where they want, but I suspect activity and lower age of players take precedence. So, I think there's a choice between activity (S15 K/P Alex D at 641 TPE) or younger age (S20 TE Gragg at 185 TPE). With Honolulu already having a TE I think they take the kicker and hope Gragg is around next round.
OCO (2 taken) protect - S19 DE Lazer-Eyes
The Otters have a low TPE D-line but that doesn't meant they want to lose all of them. I have them protect the maybe not really active Lazer-Eyes over S18 DSFL S Ryan who does look actually somewhat active but who is an FA and who hasn't updated in a couple weeks given that they already have 5 protected DBs.
R9 P2 -
S20 TE Blake Gragg, 185 TPE,
With 4 defensive players picked so far, I think Honolulu wants to bolster that unit. Looking at the board, however, there are no active D-line players left, are no active LBs left, and no active DBs left outside of some multiple regression players. I think the smart money ends up on focusing on activity over team needs at this point. Gragg hasn't been a top earning player but has been around in March, so they'll hope to get him back on the active earner track.
YKW (3 taken) protect - everyone
R10 P1 -
S18 RB Ruff Ruff, 500 TPE,
RB Ruff isn't earning TPE but is 'around' and so could be in the running to get lured back at some point. A second reasonably high TPE RB isn't a terrible pick even if he does remain inactive, and the options are getting pretty bare anyway. This pick is also slightly strategic because if they don't take him here I think there's a good chance Sarasota would go for Culbertson which could end up locking Honolulu out of Ruff.
ARI (2 taken) protect - D20 DT Culbertson
Hasn't updated in about 2 months, but could still be taken just because there's so little D-line. I think the only other protection option is S19 WR Hardagain but as a current FA who also hasn't updated since 2/1 I think that's a lower priority. Hardagain does show as having been seen on 3/30 on the tracker vs. Culbertson's 3/1 so if Hardagain is actually active (and interested in signing back with the team) I think he's the instant priority after losing 2 other players on the offense and with no DSFL WR.
R10 P2 -
S19 DE Vassallo, 302 TPE,
At this point, Austin, Colorado, New Orleans, Philly, and Yellowknife are all at maxxed out picks. Every remaining unprotected player on Arizona is a free agent. Baltimore offers an inactive LB entering regression or a questionably active K/P. Orange County has a not very active TE in regression and a lot of ineligible choices. Every unprotected player on San Jose is a free agent. So, Vassallo ends up the best choice despite being inactive for the last month.
CHI (2 taken) protect - S20 WR Moore
The DSFL's Moore is the only unprotected player who isn't currently a free agent. Moore hasn't updated since mid-February but has been on the site so I think that makes a better choice than the other options.
R11 P1 -
S13 TE Johnny Blaze, 510 TPE,
With 3 options left between the Baltimore duo of S16 K/P Brand and S15 LB Nikko, or Blaze, I have the Sailfish taking the player that matches a need and has been seen on the site most recently. Going into a third season of decline, I don't think Blaze will be long for the team but the leadership will probably hope to get him back to active.
OCO (3 taken) protect - everyone
R11 P2 -
S16 K/P ForThe Brand, 318 TPE,
With my imposed caveat of assuming the expansion teams cannot rely on any current free agents signing back with their teams, there are exactly two options left in the draft and so I have Honolulu taking the one who has been on the site more recently. S15 LB Nikko could be their second LB but as someone who looks completely inactive I have the GMs taking the player with a chance of returning instead.
BAL (3 taken) protect - everyone
R12 P1 -
No valid picks
R12 P2 -
No valid picks
Conclusion
I think the 'no drafting free agents' rule really complicates the mock situation. I have to assume a lot of players, especially IA FAs, will get extensions at least offered by their teams. And conversely, some players with options for S22 might end up as free agents rather than being draftable. So by next week when the draft actually opens I think the field will look drastically different for the expansion GMs. I do, however, think that the decisions by current GMs will look fairly similar and so that this can be a good starting point to work from after seeing how contracts shake out.
The other big unknown at this time is how many players will be announcing retirement in the offseason in order to recreate for S23 while potentially giving a loaner to their current teams. That is the one thing with the highest chance to drastically change the protection priorities for the current teams and I mostly didn't try to predict any players as retiring when selecting the protection order. The GMs presumably will actually have talked to the players on their team and have a sense of what everyone's intentions are, unlike me, and so I wouldn't be surprised to see changes result from that.
The other big note from the draft is just how barren active d-line players were. I generated this mock by doing the protection lists individually and then doing the draft in order. There were a couple times after seeing how the D-line situation played out that I considered going back and changing pick or protection priorities. I ultimately didn't do that because I was already like 7 hours into writing and didn't want to have to throw a bunch of it out. I do think there's a chance that some of the more attractive D-line actives end up protected more than here as a result of that, but doing that would open up other positions and players so I don't know how it would all shake out. Good luck with both the current and expansion GMs in dealing with that.
Also, trying to spellcheck anything with all these player names sucks.
And lastly, my thanks to everyone who was willing to speak to me off the record to give me a little more insight into some player's preferences. As I said, I spent long enough on this that I eventually gave up on gathering more information and just focused on numbers for most of the rest, but as initial background it was very helpful. I'd offer to share the media credit with this to y'all but that would require naming said sources so that's a catch-22 I guess.
I'll be taking a look at likely protections by teams in the upcoming expansion draft and then do a mock with those. These protections are primarily based on team need and TPE but some are informed by what I've heard about player preferences. The biggest unknown that I have an an outsider to the NSFL teams is which players are actually willing/not willing to join an expansion team and general personalities/past interactions with GMs. It's easy for one person to have higher TPE or be a better fit on paper for the team but if one of the expansion GMs thinks that player is no fun then it clearly decreases the chance of getting picked. I tried to gather some information on team fit and if people were interested in leaving for an expansion team or to stay, but it's certainly incomplete and may also include intentional misinformation.
I include contract terms information but presume that all FAs that teams wanted to protect would have some set of terms that teams could agree too. I started trying to figure out cap options for future contracts and rapidly went insane, so it's possible that some FAs that I figure would be protected are actually destined for cap casualties. I'm sorry for any errors of that nature. I also mostly didn't consider cap aspects of the expansion trade in piecing together rosters but it's certainly something the expansion GMs will have to be keeping in mind. I did limit the expansion teams to not drafting any active FAs, however. It's possible that some of those players will sign extensions before the draft but I don't have a good enough sense of player/team interest to do a good feel on that and so just blocked them all instead.
Picture explanations
(all thumbnails clickable for bigger versions)
Color key for pictures:
Red: GM of a non-expansion team
Blue: S21 protected player
Grey: Announced retirement as of about 7pm pacific on 3/31.
Yellow: GM-to-be of
Green: GM-to-be of
Column key for what's not on the TPE tracker
"Contract" is the last year of the player's contract as of about 3/30 according mostly to the contract tracking sheet with some looking at the transaction forum.
"Lost" is when the players were taken (pre-mock only shown)
"Protecc" is which players I have as protected in roughly priority order.
"TPE in position" ranks each player's current TPE (as of ~6pm pacific 3/30) vs. other unprotected players in that position. So eg for QB if there are 2, one with 65 TPE and the other with 50, the 65 TPE player would have a '1' for TPE in position while the 50 TPE player would have a '2'.
Team breakdowns
Arizona has a good looking S21 class and enough protection to cover most of their higher TPE and active players. RB Ruff is IA but not officially retired - but with 2036's official cutest RB Yoda waiting in the wings I think they'll allow Ruff to be uncovered. The other top 2 picks on the team are 800 TPE and inactive free agent Irving and active but lower TPE DT Masters. If the Outlaws' leadership thinks that keeping Irving around is key for S22 despite his upcoming regression I could see protecting him over DT Masters, but I see keeping the active player to be a priority. WR Bur'Berry is also on the fence as a fiarly active S20 player, but he's a lot deeper down the lists for his position. I think Arizona hopes that Irving is taken and then protects Bur'Berry.
Austin's looking at a lot of good offense without the ability to protect them and keep a good defense at the same time. My read is them focusing on the offense centered around the GMs with S15 WR Tidwell over S16 TE Larson and S15 S Jensen as the final decision. S20 S Sexjoke is natural consideration to consider protecting as well, but that's a name that's been in the news for expansion GM a few times and so I'm leaving off protection with the assumption that there could be some interest in playing for an expansion team.
With the bonus protection from losing QB Havran I think they keep their top actives aside from S10 CB Troyski and S11 K/P Fulture who seem reasonably likely to retire. The big exception is S18 DE Baldari. I heard that Baldari might be interested in checking out the expansion situation and so calling him unprotected due to player choice, especially given that he has a player option for this year. That rumor might be wrong or the management might try to talk him into staying, but we'll see.
I have them protecting S15 S Uchiha who seems mostly inactive over Baldari but if Baldari doesn't want out, that would flip. I also have them protecting S12 WR Maddox who seems quite active with still nearly 1k TPE before this year's regression. Maddox is an FA, but there's not really any other unprotected actives outside of S10 CB Toryski and S11 K/P Fulture who I think are likely more on the retiring side of things.
Chicago is facing a bit of a rapidly changing situation, but they do seem to have a plausible core of actives to move forward with. There's a lot of unknowns that I have as an outsider - does S14 QB Jenkins see enough of a chance to stay around rather than retiring in a second year of regression? Have S15 RB Leaf Jr.'s concerns with management been put to rest? Is S18 DT Harding actually back and going to be active? The answers to those as well as what kind of timeline the new management wants to hit for competitive peak will greatly influence the decisions for protection.
I'm going to assume that all players from S14 or more recently remain around and that there's interest and willingness in keeping the offensive core of Jenkins/Leaf Jr./Hank. I'm calling protection of S18 DT Harding over S12 DT Skarsgard but that's assuming that Harding wants to be around and active. Skarsgard is the top DT option if left unprotected, but with the regression that comes from being S12 I think Chicago gambles that the expansion teams are looking past S22 and don't take him. If Harding isn't planning on being active, I'd expect those protections to flip.
And finally, if I'm putting my game theory hat on, I could see Chicago taking on more risk and not protecting QB Jenkins. Given the recent HO run-ins and leadership situation plus Honolulu already having a QB, I think there's a chance that the Butchers think that Sarasota would prefer to build around a younger QB and wouldn't take Jenkins even if available due to age and past controversy. But, keeping the game theory hat on, I could see one of the teams still making the pick just to try and force a trade back from Chicago given their lack of a backup QB. I think Chicago doesn't take the risk, but I feel like it's an interesting strategic move to consider.
Colorado have some great team depth with a bunch of S18 high earners which unfortunately means that they won't be able to protect everyone. I'm figuring on none of the S15 or older players outside of the required GM S15 LB Berry get protected but don't feel confident about it. S17 RB Owens is a free agent who hasn't updated since 3/7 but who is still around - I could easily see protecting S12 WR Bishop or S18 TE Sauce if there isn't a meeting of the minds with the FA to be. S15 LB Gabagool is another tempting protection target but with one of the GMs being also an S15 LB, I'm proposing they take the chance on breaking the duo up to start.
The second line is another deep team who actually have a high percentage of players. The number one question to me, though, is who's going to retire? Both GMs will be in regression with S14 QB Francisco in his second year. Especially in the case where New Orleans gets back their early season momentum and wins the Ulti I could see one or both GMs retiring, taking the chance to reconsolidate around their younger players. However, the lack of a backup QB on the roster outside of presumptive retiree S15 Jaroppolo makes that a risky option even with persistent swirlings of S22 QB Slothlisberger being the plan for the future.
Assuming neither GM retires, I see NOLA protecting only players from S18 and 19. That leaves a trio of great S15 players open in the form of OL Ulysses, LB Bode, and CB Taylor, but I don't know what else they can do.
Both my mock pool and the S22 draft class are deep in CB so I Have no protection on them, thinking that they'll hope to lose at most 1. Additionally, with a GM at RB and S21 Barker in the DSFL, I could see taking the risk of not protecting Toriki and going for one of the CBs or S19 WR Podolak instead. I could see the argument to also not protect S19 TE McCormick given S21 TE Wolfcastle in the DSFL but McCormick is the top earning from that year which seems pretty convincing of an argument for protection to me. And finally, I heard that S18 DT Ironside might be interested in going to an expansion team but that leaves the defensive line in a dire state with DT Faux retiring after the season. If the player wants to go you might want to let him rather than have anger in the LR, but from a pure scheme perspective that has got to hurt. But, in the case where the team wins the Ulti this year and one or two GMs do retire, I could see playing a rookie QB in S22 and focusing on S23 and so letting Ironside go to keep younger players around.
Orange County I think would be trivial to mock out if they had 8 protections. With 7, though, I think they have to make an excruciatingly tough choice between which one of S17 WR Banks II, S19 CB Dream, and S15 CB Lattimer they don't protect. S15 K/P Dasistwcopyandpastehisname I think is fairly safe despite being the top kicker in the league. Kickers stereotypically don't need much in the way of TPE so he could be fine even with a year or two of regression, but in a deep rookie draft I think the expansion teams would rather look there.
So getting back to the tough decisions, S17 WR Banks is a season and 260 TPE behind top WR Mongo. With S21 WR Kurisuto on the roster, I could see the argument that Banks is expendable. For the CB position, S18 Abernathy is a must-keep as GM which means one of the DBs might be expendable. The other GM S18 S Biggums has S21 rookie Vegeta on the team, which means 3 DB positions are already locked up. So, could S15 Lattimer or S19 Dream be on the chopping block? Between the two, I think Dream is the first option with Lattimer entering regression. Even if losing Lattimer hurts the Otters more this year, I think the expansion teams would jump on a younger player like Dream and so I think he has to be protected. The S22 draft class is fairly deep at CB so maybe the team feels like they could take a risk?
I ultimately went with leaving WR Banks unprotected with the final tiebreaker being a contract that goes through S22 as compared to Lattimer's S24.
(Having mentioned that, I will also mention that S15 LB Grievous also only has a contract through S22, but as the 3rd highest TPE player on the team I figure he's a more likely keep. If S21 LB Scott was higher in TPE earning I might have reconsidered, though).
When I said earlier that I wasn't going to talk about cap space, I lied. The absurd extension they agreed to today with S19 TE Blocksdale Jr. looks very obviously to me liek a way of making him radioactive to any expansion team while technically not breaking the rules as I understand them.
(For anyone who doesn't want to click on the link, the contract is S22 for $2m and player option for S23 for $30m)
So the way I read the contract, they're trying to ensure that Blocksdale's cap his is high enough in S23 that the expansion teams can't afford to take him in the case where he'd exercise the option. Wearing my game theory hat, that contract makes sense as a way to use good cap planning to protect an extra player. Wearing my spirit of the rules hat, that seems like garbage that should clearly be voided. Wearing my analysis hat, I think that's an interesting idea and I'm looking forward to see if HO lets it stand as I think it technically doesn't violate any rules. But, after their earlier contract term of 'GM must do the player's updates' was struck down, I don't know what to expect.
Ignoring the contract for the moment, I think Philly's decisions are mainly between protecting their top S15 players who will be entering regression vs. their younger and high earning players. S19 QB Phoenix and S16 RB Torenson seem like obvious keeps as the key of an offense and then I project keeping Varga to have a top receiving threat in the next year. For defense, I'm projecting protecting keeping the S15 S pair of D'Attoria V and McKinnie. The last (non-contract) protection I figure will get used on S20 WR Vuxta. As a fairly high earning younger player, I see him being the choice over S15 CB Emoji who's slated to be a free agent at the end of this year, will be entering regression, and doesn't have any TPE updates since January. Emoji actually seems like a high candidate for retirement, but I haven't see a post about it.
This plan also doesn't protect S20 K/P Powers, but again I don't think the position is a high pick for the expansion teams and the Liberty also has S21 K/P Louis in the DSFL as a backup option. Along with the near-certain undraftability of of Blocksdle and S21 DSFL RB Panda, I think Philly has a fairly promising offensive setup going into S22.
San Jose has the mixed fortune of being able to protect every player on their roster with an update in the month of March with their seven protections. That's not all bad - they have 4 fairly high earning rookies looking to set up for a future. GM and pending free agent S12 S Staley seems like a possible recreate at the end of the season to try and hit the S23 wave that the team looks to be aiming for, but I could see trying to play one more season given the status of possibly being the highest TPE DB on the team. Given even odds I'd take retirement and then maybe protecting S12 DT Riposte, but I don't think keeping vs. losing Riposte next year is a key factor for the team with the S21 rookie DE pair of Otle and Noble Jr. joining the DT pair of S17 Ennis and S21 Allen.
The Wraiths start the draft mostly done after losing 2 future GMs from their ranks before it even starts. That gives them enough protection to keep their younger core but there's still a few interesting decisions on which older players to protect. This is another case which will be deeply influenced by which players are planning to retire after the season is over. I'm projecting here that S14 QB Bigsby, S13 WR Swift, S15 DT Kroustis, and S13 CB Snuggles all stay around and therefore get protected. S10 S Grithead is still active and could even possibly be good enough to start on the team next year next to S21 S Bois, but being an FA and at a very low TPE after regression that seems unlikely. However, I think that also means a low chance of being selected by the expansion teams given that they'd get probably at most 1 useful year of play.
Mock expansion draft
Obviously this mock draft depends heavily on the protection lists and the top picks have a high chance of being off. The high picks being off means that the low picks will be addressing different needs, and so I expect a low accuracy. But hey it's still fun.
And as a brief reminder:
- S21 RB Frost and S19 WR Gordon - S23 DT Ka'ana'ana and S14 QB HavranR1 P1 -
S18 CB David Rector, 858 TPE,
To me this is a kind of 'build a team for the future past S22' pick over higher statted S15 players. Between S17 WR Banks and Rector, I have Sarasota taking the player that doesn't match their GM and additionally a defensive player to go with their two GMs on the offensive side of the ball. I think this makes the next pick probably Banks II on the Otters, but I don't think the Sailfish are looking for any of the players there as early picks.
NOLA (1 taken) protect - S19 WR Podolak
This leaves S15 LB Bode at over 1k TPE on the board still, but I think they focus on protecting youth still.
R1 P2 -
S17 WR Dexter Banks II, 871 TPE,
Havran's going to want to throw to someone and Banks is a top WR. S17 is a nice bridge on the offensive side of the ball from the S14 QB. I could see Honolulu trying to wait a round here since I don't think there are any Otters players high on Sarasota's list, but I could see that backfiring is Sarasota just double down on WR by taking Banks themselves, or alternatively going for some younger talent like DE Boucher which probably protects Banks.
OCO (1 taken) protect - S20 DE Boucher
DE is shallow in the expansion with Boucher having the 5th highest TPE of unprotected players. His earn rate isn't record-setting, but I think it's between him and S15 IA FA RB Bigby so I think you keep the active player.
R2 P1 -
S18 DE Fabricio Baldari, 599 TPE,
If Baldari really does have an interest in going to an expansion team, I assume his current teammate Havran would have heard about it. Baldari is the top DE on the board with some steep falloff after him and going defense after offense makes sense to me.
Baltimore (2 taken) protect - S14 LB Bakshi
IA Bakshi seems like he'll have a little more TPE then IA S15 LB Nikko so I make the pick that way.
R2 P2 -
S20 S Awkward Sexjoke, 436 TPE,
At this point, Baltimore and Yellowknife are all at 2 players taken. I don't think Sarasota wants anyone available on Baltimore. S19 DE Kearse on the Wraiths is an interesting option as one of the better DEs left at 394 TPE but he's currently a free agent. Assuming nothing changes, I think that means he couldn't be drafted (but also couldn't sign back with the Wraiths). If he signs with the Wraiths, I have the Sailfish taking him here for the youth at a position which is a little less deep, especially as members of the same locker room. They could also go with S18 DE Ocewilder if they think that DE is the right position, but I have them going Safety since Honolulu just grabbed a DE. If Sexjoke isn't available, I think they fall back to S20 S Kirkby at nearly the same TPE.
AUS (1 taken) protect - S16 TE Larson
This could easily go to S20 CB Moreno if Austin wants to protect their youth more but he looks less active and is signed though S22 vs. Larson's S24.
R3 P1 -
S19 LB Mack Arianlacher, 529 TPE,
S18 CB Adams and S18 TE Sauce are also tempting here, but having already picked up a CB I think the Sarasota diversifies their defensive options. If they do take Kearse with the prior pick, I could see one of the safety options from above here instead.
NOLA (2 taken) protect - S18 CB Adams
I think the Second Line helps protect their youth more here after losing 2 young defenders. This leaves a few of their players with higher TPE on the offense open, but with a higher season count I think the team figures it's lower risk.
R3 P2 -
S20 S Thor Kirkby, 399 TPE,
Honolulu also goes for a young DB after a few older players before. Kirkby barely trails Sexjoke in TPE earning and seems like a good DB option.
COL (1 taken) protect - S18 DE Ocewilder
This draft is remarkably short on active D-line and I think that means Ocewilder is more attractive than S18 RB Vincent, S18 TE Sauce, and S15 LB Gabagool. Plus, Colorado is losing S21 DT Smirh to Chicago leaving them with only 3 D-lineman on the team with no DSFL prospects.
R4 P1 -
S18 TE Earl Sauce, 666 TPE,
Suace is the third highest TE TPE-wise and another useful weapon for QB Havran. If Philly's Blocksdale was a plausible option I could see the 1 season younger player being preferred over the higher TPE Sauce but I think it's highly unlikely given the contract situation.
COL (2 taken) protect - S15 LB Gabagool
S18 RB Vincent is I think still the other option but he looks a bit less active and there's a two higher TPE (though admittedly less active) S18 running backs than Vincent.
R4 P2 -
S15 LB Quenton Bode, 1233 TPE,
At this point seeing how the D-line situation is actually playing out, I considered going back to an earlier round and re-picking. I didn't end up doing that though because I've heard pretty consistently that people think D-line can play effectively at lower TPE amounts and so I'm thinking Sarasota will put faith in the rookie draft and not prioritize the line. If they did, though, I'd want to see what level of activity to expect out of S19 DE Lazer-Eyes and S20 DE Fassingit. Tight end also looks like it may be a pass for Sarasota with Larson protected, Sauce taken, and Blocksdale effectively untakeable. S20 TE Gragg is available at 185 TPE but I think Sarasota hope to be able to draft that level of earning. So instead, I'm picking the Sailfish to switch up their strategy and just take S15 LB Bode as the player with the most TPE available. A strong LB corps can help make up for weaker line play and even a season of regression leaves Bode possibly as the best player on the field for the team.
NOLA (3 taken) protect - everyone
R5 P1 -
S20 DE Hal Fassingit, 233 TPE,
Sailfish take a little bit of a risk on a player with low TPE earning but take a risk if they think they can help out with increasing the earn rate. S20 LB Stephens could also be interesting, but they have 2 LBs already and try to get a backup option for DL if the rookie draft doesn't go the way they want. S18 DE Franchet from Philly could be an interesting pick too but Fassingit is 2 seasons younger and 72 TPE behind so I give the nod to the younger player.
AUS (2 taken) protect - S20 CB Moreno
The Outlaws are looking at some less active people to protect at this point and I have them protecting Moreno over Clay given their 3 WRs on roster vs. 2 CBs, especially after losing a safety.
R5 P2 -
S20 LB Warren Stephens, 379 TPE,
Honolulu gets their first LB with a solid S20 earner. That also gives them one player in each defensive position (DL/LB/DB), giving them a good start.
PHL (1 taken) protect - S18 DE Franchet
With even lower TPE D-line as possibly a hot commodity, the Liberty try to ensure they don't further deplete an already bare-bones line.
R6 P1 -
S20 WR Jah Bur’Berry, 409 TPE,
While they don't have a running back yet, I think the Hahalua can safely ignore that position for now given the Sailfish's lack of need for one. So instead, I see them picking up a second WR on the younger side. Bur'Berry is the highest of the 3 S20 players they've drafted, too.
ARI (1 taken) protect - S15 TE Irving
After losing one receiver I think they protect another. Irving after regression will still be at 640 TPE and so I think he's a priority over the somewhat inactive Ruff at RB and mostly inactive Culbertson at DT given S21 prospects RB Yoda and DT Arc.
R6 P2 -
S18 WR Jake Dropson, 456 TPE,
Having taken only defensive players so far, I think the Sailfish finally make a move to get some more weapons to move the ball. With no active running backs on the board, I have to think that Sarasota takes a long look at the board. I considered S20 TE Gragg, but since Honolulu already have a TE I think they wait a bit longer. Dropson hasn't updated since November of 2019 but has been around the forums, so I gamble on the leadership in Florida thinking they can get Dropson back to active. If not, I think they take S20 WR Clay from the Outlaws - Clay's also not updated for a little while but has been around.
PHL (2 taken) protect - S20 K/P Powers
I think this choice is between Powers and the hasn't updated since 2/29 RB Dotson. Actives are inherently valuable so I think they hold onto Powers, especially with S21 RB Panda as a backup option.
R7 P1 -
S18 RB Fuzzy Dotson, 541 TPE,
Again considered Clay here. Dotson has also been around but not updating. On pure player needs match I think Clay is the pick, but Honolulu has no RBs and 2 WRs so I think Dotson is the strategic pick to make.
PHL (3 taken) protect - everyone
R7 P2 -
S17 S Takeda Okura, 334 TPE,
Again thinking strategically, I think the Hahalua can ignore RB for now, figuring that the Sailfish won't want a 3rd. So instead, I have them looking to defense. Teams need a few DBs and cornerback is looking rough for actives, so I pick the active but low earning Okura.
AUS (3 taken) protect - everyone
R8 P1 -
S18 RB Michael Vincent, 446 TPE,
Despite feeling like Honolulu could pass on RB for a round or two, I have them taking Vincent here to ensure that Colorado doesn't have a 3rd player taken by Sarasota. Vincent seems like the most active option of the top RBs left.
COL (3 taken) protect - everyone
R8 P2 -
S12 DT Thorian Skarsgard, 756 TPE,
Skarsgard is one of the oldest eligible players in the expansion draft and were I the Sarasota GMs I'd definitely want to have a chat before making this pick, but as an active player in an area that would be useful, this could be a good pick. It definitely goes against the overall youth movement I'd expect out of the expansion teams, but if the new GMs can sell a team vision then they could get paid off with a player who wants to play for their team after recreation. And if not, they should still get a year out of a DT with higher TPE than most draftees who hopefully will be a good locker room presence as they establish their new team.
CHI (1 taken) protect - S19 S Beat
With a lower number of actives, Chicago gets one covered with this protection.
R9 P1 -
S15 K/P Dasistwcopyandpastehisname, 641 TPE,
Having now 2 players at each of d-line, LB, and DB, I think the Sailfish GMs will be torn between trying to fill out positions and finding active players. TE and DB are both below where they want, but I suspect activity and lower age of players take precedence. So, I think there's a choice between activity (S15 K/P Alex D at 641 TPE) or younger age (S20 TE Gragg at 185 TPE). With Honolulu already having a TE I think they take the kicker and hope Gragg is around next round.
OCO (2 taken) protect - S19 DE Lazer-Eyes
The Otters have a low TPE D-line but that doesn't meant they want to lose all of them. I have them protect the maybe not really active Lazer-Eyes over S18 DSFL S Ryan who does look actually somewhat active but who is an FA and who hasn't updated in a couple weeks given that they already have 5 protected DBs.
R9 P2 -
S20 TE Blake Gragg, 185 TPE,
With 4 defensive players picked so far, I think Honolulu wants to bolster that unit. Looking at the board, however, there are no active D-line players left, are no active LBs left, and no active DBs left outside of some multiple regression players. I think the smart money ends up on focusing on activity over team needs at this point. Gragg hasn't been a top earning player but has been around in March, so they'll hope to get him back on the active earner track.
YKW (3 taken) protect - everyone
R10 P1 -
S18 RB Ruff Ruff, 500 TPE,
RB Ruff isn't earning TPE but is 'around' and so could be in the running to get lured back at some point. A second reasonably high TPE RB isn't a terrible pick even if he does remain inactive, and the options are getting pretty bare anyway. This pick is also slightly strategic because if they don't take him here I think there's a good chance Sarasota would go for Culbertson which could end up locking Honolulu out of Ruff.
ARI (2 taken) protect - D20 DT Culbertson
Hasn't updated in about 2 months, but could still be taken just because there's so little D-line. I think the only other protection option is S19 WR Hardagain but as a current FA who also hasn't updated since 2/1 I think that's a lower priority. Hardagain does show as having been seen on 3/30 on the tracker vs. Culbertson's 3/1 so if Hardagain is actually active (and interested in signing back with the team) I think he's the instant priority after losing 2 other players on the offense and with no DSFL WR.
R10 P2 -
S19 DE Vassallo, 302 TPE,
At this point, Austin, Colorado, New Orleans, Philly, and Yellowknife are all at maxxed out picks. Every remaining unprotected player on Arizona is a free agent. Baltimore offers an inactive LB entering regression or a questionably active K/P. Orange County has a not very active TE in regression and a lot of ineligible choices. Every unprotected player on San Jose is a free agent. So, Vassallo ends up the best choice despite being inactive for the last month.
CHI (2 taken) protect - S20 WR Moore
The DSFL's Moore is the only unprotected player who isn't currently a free agent. Moore hasn't updated since mid-February but has been on the site so I think that makes a better choice than the other options.
R11 P1 -
S13 TE Johnny Blaze, 510 TPE,
With 3 options left between the Baltimore duo of S16 K/P Brand and S15 LB Nikko, or Blaze, I have the Sailfish taking the player that matches a need and has been seen on the site most recently. Going into a third season of decline, I don't think Blaze will be long for the team but the leadership will probably hope to get him back to active.
OCO (3 taken) protect - everyone
R11 P2 -
S16 K/P ForThe Brand, 318 TPE,
With my imposed caveat of assuming the expansion teams cannot rely on any current free agents signing back with their teams, there are exactly two options left in the draft and so I have Honolulu taking the one who has been on the site more recently. S15 LB Nikko could be their second LB but as someone who looks completely inactive I have the GMs taking the player with a chance of returning instead.
BAL (3 taken) protect - everyone
R12 P1 -
No valid picks
R12 P2 -
No valid picks
Conclusion
I think the 'no drafting free agents' rule really complicates the mock situation. I have to assume a lot of players, especially IA FAs, will get extensions at least offered by their teams. And conversely, some players with options for S22 might end up as free agents rather than being draftable. So by next week when the draft actually opens I think the field will look drastically different for the expansion GMs. I do, however, think that the decisions by current GMs will look fairly similar and so that this can be a good starting point to work from after seeing how contracts shake out.
The other big unknown at this time is how many players will be announcing retirement in the offseason in order to recreate for S23 while potentially giving a loaner to their current teams. That is the one thing with the highest chance to drastically change the protection priorities for the current teams and I mostly didn't try to predict any players as retiring when selecting the protection order. The GMs presumably will actually have talked to the players on their team and have a sense of what everyone's intentions are, unlike me, and so I wouldn't be surprised to see changes result from that.
The other big note from the draft is just how barren active d-line players were. I generated this mock by doing the protection lists individually and then doing the draft in order. There were a couple times after seeing how the D-line situation played out that I considered going back and changing pick or protection priorities. I ultimately didn't do that because I was already like 7 hours into writing and didn't want to have to throw a bunch of it out. I do think there's a chance that some of the more attractive D-line actives end up protected more than here as a result of that, but doing that would open up other positions and players so I don't know how it would all shake out. Good luck with both the current and expansion GMs in dealing with that.
Also, trying to spellcheck anything with all these player names sucks.
And lastly, my thanks to everyone who was willing to speak to me off the record to give me a little more insight into some player's preferences. As I said, I spent long enough on this that I eventually gave up on gathering more information and just focused on numbers for most of the rest, but as initial background it was very helpful. I'd offer to share the media credit with this to y'all but that would require naming said sources so that's a catch-22 I guess.
![[Image: JYi8HmG.png]](https://i.imgur.com/JYi8HmG.png)
Draft Steal (retired S35 CB) - Profile/Update | Wiki
Troen Egghands (retired S22 DE) - Profile | Update | Wiki
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![[Image: alejandro_chainbreaker.jpg?width=769&height=364]](https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/372602034198806530/716040994080161802/alejandro_chainbreaker.jpg?width=769&height=364)
