Many players in Philadelphia were frustrated after missing the playoffs narrowly last season. Then, we started the new season with an awful 0-2, blowing two fourth quarter leads with late game interceptions. But the doubleheader was coming up and we soon found ourselves at 2-2. With three fourths of the season remaining, I decided to spend my Sunday night repeatedly simming the rest of the season to see what happened to my beloved Liberty team.
I realized about halfway through the process that it would be much cooler if I had been gathering more data on other teams to see what their outlooks were, but alas I am lazy and was already pretty far into the process and so I decided not to.
The first iteration resulted with the Liberty only winning six games on the season, a depressing result that has us missing the playoffs again. That was disheartening, but I pressed on. The Liberty won six or fewer games a total of 25 times. When winning only four or five games, Philly never made the playoffs. When winning only six games, something that happened 19 times, the Liberty appeared in the playoffs 10.5% of the time. Shockingly, it is possible for a 6-10 Philadelphia team to make it into the playoffs as the #3 seed.
The Liberty have a 25% chance of winning seven games, making it the most frequently sin win total. Now that we have moved up to a 16 game season, a total of seven wins puts the team at 7-9 but offers an improved 16% chance of making the playoffs.
The second most likely win total is eight. An 8-8 team is perfectly balanced, as all things should be. Thanos would be pleased. With eight wins, the Liberty have a 68.2% chance of being in the playoffs. I was honestly surprised by the number of times an 8-8 team in the ASFC makes the playoffs. It wasn’t uncommon to see multiple teams in the conference finishing at 8-8, so it’s entirely possible that the playoff picture will be set by tiebreakers. Making the playoffs in nearly 70% of the instances in which they won 8 games, though, Philadelphia seems to be in great shape in that regard.
Moving on to even more exciting things, the Liberty won 9 games 19 times and made the playoffs in 95% of those situations. Though more rare than the 8 game seasons, it’s still entirely possible that a nine win season happens for us in Philadelphia. Unfortunately, it is also possible, though unlikely, that a 9 win season does not end with us playing in the postseason.
We now move farther from the realm of likely and into the possibility that Philadelphia powers their way to a double-digit win season, an event that happened seven times. Each time the Liberty won ten games, they advanced to the playoffs every time.
Eleven and twelve win seasons both happened once apiece and saw the Liberty in the playoffs each time.
That data is interesting enough on its own, but I think it gets even more interesting when we run the same test after losing to Yellowknife in week five to see how much a single loss to a division opponent can change the trajectory of your season. The results were not promising.
There was one single result in which we won three games, only picking up one more win than we have so far. That is truly the darkest timeline and we obviously missed the playoffs in that scenario.
The number of trials that saw us winning four games doubled to, ironically, four. We didn’t make the playoffs in any of those four scenarios either.
The number of trials in which we won five games also increased from four to twelve. We didn’t make the playoffs in a single one of those situations either. That is now 17 tests in which less than six wins are acquired, up from six wins after week four.
Once again, there is a slight chance that Philadelphia could somehow sneak into the playoff picture while only winning six games. Obviously, that is not likely. Of the fifteen results in which Philadelphia won six games, only one of those involved a postseason appearance. That is actually down from the results after week four, dropping to 15 from 19.
Seven win seasons remained relatively similar. We won seven games two times fewer after week five than we did after week four, but the odds of making the playoffs in a seven win season increased from 16% to about 22%. I think the sample size on these may be too small to say conclusively that the results are actually different in these scenarios. In any case, a seven win season does not do good things for your chance at a playoff appearance.
We saw a perfectly balanced 8-8 season four fewer times, dropping from 22 8-8 seasons to only 18. Although the frequency of 8 wins decreased slightly, the chance of making the playoffs with an 8 win season dropped drastically. Before week five, the sim predicted that we would make the playoffs with only 8 wins 68% of the time. After our loss to Yellowknife, that total dropped to 39%.
Additionally, our chances of seeing a ninth win dropped. After week four, that total was at 19. It is now down to 13. Although the changes were less drastic, the chance of making the playoffs with a nine win season also dropped form 95% to 85%. In both cases, a playoff appearance is highly likely, though 95% is certainly more comforting to see than 85%, especially when we lost to Chicago at home while our sim testing showed that our win percentage was 88%.
Ten win seasons, to my surprise, became slightly more likely. The sim returned this result ten times, up from seven before week five, though the playoff percent remained at a constant 100% through both iterations.
The team had two eleven or twelve win seasons and made the playoffs both times before week five and saw that happen four times and made the playoffs in each of those four instances.
Ultimately, losing that one game dropped our chance at making the playoffs from 48% to 38% and our average wins per season dropped from 7.57 to 7.36. The distribution of wins also appeared to be closer to a normal bell curve while the distribution following week four was slightly skewed towards higher win totals, especially with higher totals in the eight and nine columns. It is entirely possible the results were due to a small sample size of only one hundred tests, but I think they were interesting nonetheless. If only I’d put a bit more thought into this on the front end, I’d love to put in some extra time and see some of the chances for other teams around the league.
I realized about halfway through the process that it would be much cooler if I had been gathering more data on other teams to see what their outlooks were, but alas I am lazy and was already pretty far into the process and so I decided not to.
The first iteration resulted with the Liberty only winning six games on the season, a depressing result that has us missing the playoffs again. That was disheartening, but I pressed on. The Liberty won six or fewer games a total of 25 times. When winning only four or five games, Philly never made the playoffs. When winning only six games, something that happened 19 times, the Liberty appeared in the playoffs 10.5% of the time. Shockingly, it is possible for a 6-10 Philadelphia team to make it into the playoffs as the #3 seed.
The Liberty have a 25% chance of winning seven games, making it the most frequently sin win total. Now that we have moved up to a 16 game season, a total of seven wins puts the team at 7-9 but offers an improved 16% chance of making the playoffs.
The second most likely win total is eight. An 8-8 team is perfectly balanced, as all things should be. Thanos would be pleased. With eight wins, the Liberty have a 68.2% chance of being in the playoffs. I was honestly surprised by the number of times an 8-8 team in the ASFC makes the playoffs. It wasn’t uncommon to see multiple teams in the conference finishing at 8-8, so it’s entirely possible that the playoff picture will be set by tiebreakers. Making the playoffs in nearly 70% of the instances in which they won 8 games, though, Philadelphia seems to be in great shape in that regard.
Moving on to even more exciting things, the Liberty won 9 games 19 times and made the playoffs in 95% of those situations. Though more rare than the 8 game seasons, it’s still entirely possible that a nine win season happens for us in Philadelphia. Unfortunately, it is also possible, though unlikely, that a 9 win season does not end with us playing in the postseason.
We now move farther from the realm of likely and into the possibility that Philadelphia powers their way to a double-digit win season, an event that happened seven times. Each time the Liberty won ten games, they advanced to the playoffs every time.
Eleven and twelve win seasons both happened once apiece and saw the Liberty in the playoffs each time.
That data is interesting enough on its own, but I think it gets even more interesting when we run the same test after losing to Yellowknife in week five to see how much a single loss to a division opponent can change the trajectory of your season. The results were not promising.
There was one single result in which we won three games, only picking up one more win than we have so far. That is truly the darkest timeline and we obviously missed the playoffs in that scenario.
The number of trials that saw us winning four games doubled to, ironically, four. We didn’t make the playoffs in any of those four scenarios either.
The number of trials in which we won five games also increased from four to twelve. We didn’t make the playoffs in a single one of those situations either. That is now 17 tests in which less than six wins are acquired, up from six wins after week four.
Once again, there is a slight chance that Philadelphia could somehow sneak into the playoff picture while only winning six games. Obviously, that is not likely. Of the fifteen results in which Philadelphia won six games, only one of those involved a postseason appearance. That is actually down from the results after week four, dropping to 15 from 19.
Seven win seasons remained relatively similar. We won seven games two times fewer after week five than we did after week four, but the odds of making the playoffs in a seven win season increased from 16% to about 22%. I think the sample size on these may be too small to say conclusively that the results are actually different in these scenarios. In any case, a seven win season does not do good things for your chance at a playoff appearance.
We saw a perfectly balanced 8-8 season four fewer times, dropping from 22 8-8 seasons to only 18. Although the frequency of 8 wins decreased slightly, the chance of making the playoffs with an 8 win season dropped drastically. Before week five, the sim predicted that we would make the playoffs with only 8 wins 68% of the time. After our loss to Yellowknife, that total dropped to 39%.
Additionally, our chances of seeing a ninth win dropped. After week four, that total was at 19. It is now down to 13. Although the changes were less drastic, the chance of making the playoffs with a nine win season also dropped form 95% to 85%. In both cases, a playoff appearance is highly likely, though 95% is certainly more comforting to see than 85%, especially when we lost to Chicago at home while our sim testing showed that our win percentage was 88%.
Ten win seasons, to my surprise, became slightly more likely. The sim returned this result ten times, up from seven before week five, though the playoff percent remained at a constant 100% through both iterations.
The team had two eleven or twelve win seasons and made the playoffs both times before week five and saw that happen four times and made the playoffs in each of those four instances.
Ultimately, losing that one game dropped our chance at making the playoffs from 48% to 38% and our average wins per season dropped from 7.57 to 7.36. The distribution of wins also appeared to be closer to a normal bell curve while the distribution following week four was slightly skewed towards higher win totals, especially with higher totals in the eight and nine columns. It is entirely possible the results were due to a small sample size of only one hundred tests, but I think they were interesting nonetheless. If only I’d put a bit more thought into this on the front end, I’d love to put in some extra time and see some of the chances for other teams around the league.