Hello stonks enthusiasts and/or people bored at work on a Friday! This is the 3rd edition of my game-weekly stocks report, this time a little bit interesting due to the double header of ISFL games that will be played tonight. This means that stock prices will "double update" between the close of markets at 7pm ET (one hour before stream time) and when they reopen. Because of the way that price changes have been extended to happen over a gradual period, this means that prices will likely jump more tonight than we are used to seeing from each of the first two weeks of the season.
As always, if you're looking for a primer on how the stock market works in terms of determining prices, see the introduction to my first article of this series.
The market is in an interesting place right now. I still would generally characterize it as a bull market because there are lots of strong opportunities to invest given the continued overinflated price of Baltimore (although with the double-update we may see that get resolved sooner rather than later) and the relatively low ownership of a lot of stocks around the league. However, there has been a great increase in interest in the stock market as the season has started (and maybe also a certain media series drawing attention to it?), with 181 total shares being purchased since my last article on Wednesday (not including the 5 shares of NOLA stock that I believe closed at $6.2M, or $1.24M/share). I believe we are quickly approaching a much different environment where there are no easy wins to be had by looking at ownership trends or clear under/overvaluations. This may potentially also be a world where peer-to-peer share sales become a much more important part of the market as well, something I've barely touched on so far in my articles.
That said, I don't think we're quite there yet! So let's dive into the team-by-team analysis:
BALTIMORE HAWKS
Current Price: $1,522,179
Price Change: -$143,687 (-8.6%)
Shares Owned: 91
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Loss vs YKW 7-14
If you've been reading my articles, you know the drill with this one. Even if you don't, it should be obviously wrong that Baltimore is worth more than 1.5x as much as teams like the Yeti, Sailfish, Sabecats, etc. The price trend has been falling in big chunks every week, so there's no reason to think this trend will suddenly change as their ownership stays stable and they continue to lose games.
Advice: STRONG SELL (Unchanged)
COLORADO YETI
Current Price: $899,379
Price Change: $32,551 (+3.8%)
Shares Owned: 216
Ownership Change: +114
On-Field Performance: Loss @ CHI 3-20
Colorado was already a strong buy in the last instance of this article series, and that was before all but 34 shares of the available remaining ~150 were grabbed by a few investors over the past couple days. They're clearly in the top tier of teams in their conference, and although they may not be quite as dominant among that group as we're used to from previous seasons, there's still a good outlook for how many wins this team is going to get this season. We've also seen with NOLA or ARI how strong hitting the 250 share cap is currently in terms of a team's stock price. So a team as strong as COL combined with nearing that cap makes this a very appealing buy.
Full disclosure: I currently own 15 shares of Yeti stock.
Advice: STRONG BUY (Unchanged)
YELLOWKNIFE WRAITHS
Current Price: $895,772
Price Change: -$22,248 (-2.4%)
Shares Owned: 68
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Win @ BAL 14-7
Yellowknife's early schedule this season has made it very hard to tell how good they're going to be. They've been winning games that they should probably have been expected to win, and it's tough to know whether it's in the top tier of NSFC teams. Its stock is not owned very much relative to other teams, so its price might slide a bit but its on-field performance isn't bad enough to think that it's going to lose much more than the 10% fee you would incur from selling it. So this is still kind of just "Hold because I don't know what else to do with it."
Advice: HOLD (Unchanged)
CHICAGO BUTCHERS
Current Price: $1,090,710
Price Change: -$13,621 (-1.2%)
Shares Owned: 88
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Win vs. COL 20-3
Last time I moved the Butchers to BUY from HOLD, but they're moving back today as I continue to learn more about the strength of teams in this conference. I was originally basing my evaluations on the consensus opinion of people I've talked with and season predictions, which overwhelmingly put CHI as the top team in the conference, but after testing against them for Sarasota's week 4 game against them I'm not sure if the hype is all there. They're definitely in the top tier but not clearly above any of the other teams there. Given that the other teams in that tier (Colorado, Sarasota, and one other team....) are lower priced and have more shares owned, I don't think there's any particular reason to be buying Butchers stock now as opposed to one of those other teams.
ADVICE: HOLD (Previously: BUY)
PHILADELPHIA LIBERTY
Current Price: $852,797
Price Change: -$65,785 (-7.2%)
Shares Owned: 69
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Win @ NOLA 20-15
Good on the Liberty for getting a win this week! I'm glad they won't have to suffer through a long losing streak before getting their first season. But I still don't see any reason to buy Philly stock until it's much cheaper than this later in the season. If the stock price is dropping 7% after a win, then you'll beat out the 10% fee from selling now in just a couple weeks (potentially even just after tonight's stream!).
ADVICE: STRONG SELL (Unchanged)
ORANGE COUNTY OTTERS
Current Price: $1,047,411
Price Change: -$14,922 (-1.4%)
Shares Owned: 77
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Win vs. SJS 34-21
After publishing on Wednesday I realized that there wasn't much difference in my evaluations between CHI and OCO. Retrospectively I probably could have listed the Otters as a BUY. While my opinion on Chicago has changed, my opinion on OCO hasn't even despite the scare it had early in its game against the Sabercats. But the Otters held on, they're 2-0 and in the driver's seat in that conference. If Otter stock gets solid buying momentum behind it like the Yeti, it could become a very very valuable stock by the end of the season. Even if it doesn't reach ownership quite that high, it's still a solid pickup since they should win enough games to climb a bit.
ADVICE: BUY (Previously: HOLD)
NEW ORLEANS SECOND LINE
Current Price: $702,412
Price Change: $27,216 (+4.0%)
Shares Owned: 250
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Loss vs. PHI 15-20
Okay, this one will need some caveats so please don't read too much into my call listed below without reading this paragraph. (I mean, you do you but I don't recommend it). I mentioned previously the auction that closed this morning that valued NOLA stock at $1.24M / share - about 75% higher than the current listed market price in the Stocks sheet. Given that all available NOLA stock is currently owned, these open auctions are the only way to acquire new shares. Although I like that New Orleans is at the ownership cap and appears to still be gaining steadily, if it continues at its 4%/week growth rate it will take 14-15 weeks to reach that value - basically the end of this season. In the meantime, I expect the following things to happen:
1. Overall stock ownership should increase. This past week alone we saw 8.6% of available shares (assuming a 250/team cap) sold to users. I am not sure if we should expect that rate to increase or decrease, but if it stays anywhere in that neighborhood I think that the ownership advantage that NOLA stock has right now may reduce substantially by the end of this season.
2. NOLA's Elo score, the other underlying determinant of share price besides ownership, should go down. They squeaked by Honolulu in OT and lost to Philadelphia at home. I do not think the Second Line are a good team this season.
So by the time we reach the end of the season, I wouldn't be surprised if NOLA has failed to reach that lofty $1.24M goal. On the other hand, if you were somehow able to acquire more shares at $702k/share as the Google sheet values them, that would be a fantastic purchase given its current trend. There's clearly a giant gap in between those two prices that would be a reasonable evaluation, but I am choosing to make a SELL call to say that if you have any shares it wouldn't be unwise to put them up for auction and see if you can get a great price for them.
ADVICE: SELL (Previously: BUY)
AUSTIN COPPERHEADS
Current Price: $730,435
Price Change: $47,128 (+6.9%)
Shares Owned: 54
Ownership Change: +34
On-Field Performance: Win vs. HON 34-30
Austin remains a cheap stock with a shaky team underpinning it. Its ownership more than doubled this past week, so it may be worth hopping on the bandwagon and see if you can ride the gradual upwards trend it will have to a >10% gain. It's not my favorite BUY of the week, but it's not a bad option either.
ADVICE: BUY (Unchanged)
SAN JOSE SABERCATS
Current Price: $830,073
Price Change: +$7,563 (+0.9%)
Shares Owned: 62
Ownership Change: +40
On-Field Performance: Loss @ OCO 21-34
Despite losing to OCO, the Sabercats put up a great fight on the road by jumping out to a big lead at the start of the game, showing they are still a strong contender in their conference. The stock is still very cheap for a team this good, and people seem to have agreed with my BUY call from last time as ownership has increased substantially. Another solid investment opportunity here.
ADVICE: BUY (Unchanged)
ARIZONA OUTLAWS
Current Price: $739,462
Price Change: +$28,651 (+4.0%)
Shares Owned: 250
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Loss @ NYS 21-30
Our other capped team besides New Orleans gets a much more favorable call from me for two reasons. One, there hasn't been a ridiculously high auction price set on it yet that you could use to reasonably get a high price from selling via auction. Two, the team should be much better. I know the Outlaws are 0-2 but those losses involve a 3-point loss to what might be the best team in the league, and a 9-point loss to a solid team on the road. No reason to panic about the on-field product yet, so if any shares become available either by Casino auction or someone putting their personal shares up for sale, I'd consider putting some high bids in.
ADVICE: STRONG BUY (Unchanged)
HONOLULU HAHALUA
Current Price: $664,551
Price Change: -$61,146 (-8.4%)
Shares Owned: 43
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Loss @ AUS 30-34
I was optimistic about Honolulu heading into the season but they have done nothing to validate those opinions so far. Their stock is so cheap and unlikely to drop by too much more that it's probably not worth selling it, but I also don't know that I expect it to rise much higher than this for the rest of the season. Hold onto any stocks you have right now, but look elsewhere if you're looking to invest.
ADVICE: HOLD (Previously: BUY)
SARASOTA SAILFISH
Current Price: $942,648
Price Change: $12,020 (+1.3%)
Shares Owned: 113
Ownership Change: -4
On-Field Performance: Win vs. BER 43-10
Full disclosure: I sold the 4 shares of Sailfish stock this week. That was mostly just for liquidity reasons as I moved in on Colorado. If you're not looking to quickly move onto a different stock, I think it's worth holding onto the Sailfish as the solid ownership for a team that is in the top tier of their conference should see continued returns over the season. But if you're looking to buy new stock I think there are a few better options.
ADVICE: HOLD (Previously: BUY)
BERLIN FIRE SALAMANDERS
Current Price: $829,552
Price Change: -$105,322 (-11.3%)
Shares Owned: 120
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Loss @ SAR 10-43
As we've covered literally every other team in the conference by now, it shouldn't be a surprise, but I believe that BERLIN is the last team in the top tier of the NSFC. While they've started out 0-2 and not looked very good at all while doing it, I don't think that reflects the underlying quality of the team. In fact I could easily see them being the best team in the NSFC, and would not be surprised to see them as the 1 or 2 seed at the end of the season. While their record from last season and their losing streak at the beginning of this season has driven their price down, I believe that it's currently around its minimum. Buy low right now because I could easily see them rattling off a few wins and seeing a strong increase over the next few weeks.
ADVICE: STRONG BUY (Previously: HOLD)
NEW YORK SILVERBACKS
Current Price: $1,112,910
Price Change: -$84,424 (-7.1%)
Shares Owned: 67
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Win vs. ARI 30-21
Basically the same advice as last time. The Silverbacks are a pretty solid team, but their price right now is too high. Sell now and buy in a couple weeks once the price has fallen a little more.
ADVICE: SELL (Unchanged)
SUMMARY
STRONG BUY
(++)
BUY
(+)
HOLD
(-)
(-)
(-)
SELL
(- -)
STRONG SELL
Good luck everyone!
As always, if you're looking for a primer on how the stock market works in terms of determining prices, see the introduction to my first article of this series.
The market is in an interesting place right now. I still would generally characterize it as a bull market because there are lots of strong opportunities to invest given the continued overinflated price of Baltimore (although with the double-update we may see that get resolved sooner rather than later) and the relatively low ownership of a lot of stocks around the league. However, there has been a great increase in interest in the stock market as the season has started (and maybe also a certain media series drawing attention to it?), with 181 total shares being purchased since my last article on Wednesday (not including the 5 shares of NOLA stock that I believe closed at $6.2M, or $1.24M/share). I believe we are quickly approaching a much different environment where there are no easy wins to be had by looking at ownership trends or clear under/overvaluations. This may potentially also be a world where peer-to-peer share sales become a much more important part of the market as well, something I've barely touched on so far in my articles.
That said, I don't think we're quite there yet! So let's dive into the team-by-team analysis:
BALTIMORE HAWKS
Current Price: $1,522,179
Price Change: -$143,687 (-8.6%)
Shares Owned: 91
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Loss vs YKW 7-14
If you've been reading my articles, you know the drill with this one. Even if you don't, it should be obviously wrong that Baltimore is worth more than 1.5x as much as teams like the Yeti, Sailfish, Sabecats, etc. The price trend has been falling in big chunks every week, so there's no reason to think this trend will suddenly change as their ownership stays stable and they continue to lose games.
Advice: STRONG SELL (Unchanged)
COLORADO YETI
Current Price: $899,379
Price Change: $32,551 (+3.8%)
Shares Owned: 216
Ownership Change: +114
On-Field Performance: Loss @ CHI 3-20
Colorado was already a strong buy in the last instance of this article series, and that was before all but 34 shares of the available remaining ~150 were grabbed by a few investors over the past couple days. They're clearly in the top tier of teams in their conference, and although they may not be quite as dominant among that group as we're used to from previous seasons, there's still a good outlook for how many wins this team is going to get this season. We've also seen with NOLA or ARI how strong hitting the 250 share cap is currently in terms of a team's stock price. So a team as strong as COL combined with nearing that cap makes this a very appealing buy.
Full disclosure: I currently own 15 shares of Yeti stock.
Advice: STRONG BUY (Unchanged)
YELLOWKNIFE WRAITHS
Current Price: $895,772
Price Change: -$22,248 (-2.4%)
Shares Owned: 68
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Win @ BAL 14-7
Yellowknife's early schedule this season has made it very hard to tell how good they're going to be. They've been winning games that they should probably have been expected to win, and it's tough to know whether it's in the top tier of NSFC teams. Its stock is not owned very much relative to other teams, so its price might slide a bit but its on-field performance isn't bad enough to think that it's going to lose much more than the 10% fee you would incur from selling it. So this is still kind of just "Hold because I don't know what else to do with it."
Advice: HOLD (Unchanged)
CHICAGO BUTCHERS
Current Price: $1,090,710
Price Change: -$13,621 (-1.2%)
Shares Owned: 88
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Win vs. COL 20-3
Last time I moved the Butchers to BUY from HOLD, but they're moving back today as I continue to learn more about the strength of teams in this conference. I was originally basing my evaluations on the consensus opinion of people I've talked with and season predictions, which overwhelmingly put CHI as the top team in the conference, but after testing against them for Sarasota's week 4 game against them I'm not sure if the hype is all there. They're definitely in the top tier but not clearly above any of the other teams there. Given that the other teams in that tier (Colorado, Sarasota, and one other team....) are lower priced and have more shares owned, I don't think there's any particular reason to be buying Butchers stock now as opposed to one of those other teams.
ADVICE: HOLD (Previously: BUY)
PHILADELPHIA LIBERTY
Current Price: $852,797
Price Change: -$65,785 (-7.2%)
Shares Owned: 69
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Win @ NOLA 20-15
Good on the Liberty for getting a win this week! I'm glad they won't have to suffer through a long losing streak before getting their first season. But I still don't see any reason to buy Philly stock until it's much cheaper than this later in the season. If the stock price is dropping 7% after a win, then you'll beat out the 10% fee from selling now in just a couple weeks (potentially even just after tonight's stream!).
ADVICE: STRONG SELL (Unchanged)
ORANGE COUNTY OTTERS
Current Price: $1,047,411
Price Change: -$14,922 (-1.4%)
Shares Owned: 77
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Win vs. SJS 34-21
After publishing on Wednesday I realized that there wasn't much difference in my evaluations between CHI and OCO. Retrospectively I probably could have listed the Otters as a BUY. While my opinion on Chicago has changed, my opinion on OCO hasn't even despite the scare it had early in its game against the Sabercats. But the Otters held on, they're 2-0 and in the driver's seat in that conference. If Otter stock gets solid buying momentum behind it like the Yeti, it could become a very very valuable stock by the end of the season. Even if it doesn't reach ownership quite that high, it's still a solid pickup since they should win enough games to climb a bit.
ADVICE: BUY (Previously: HOLD)
NEW ORLEANS SECOND LINE
Current Price: $702,412
Price Change: $27,216 (+4.0%)
Shares Owned: 250
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Loss vs. PHI 15-20
Okay, this one will need some caveats so please don't read too much into my call listed below without reading this paragraph. (I mean, you do you but I don't recommend it). I mentioned previously the auction that closed this morning that valued NOLA stock at $1.24M / share - about 75% higher than the current listed market price in the Stocks sheet. Given that all available NOLA stock is currently owned, these open auctions are the only way to acquire new shares. Although I like that New Orleans is at the ownership cap and appears to still be gaining steadily, if it continues at its 4%/week growth rate it will take 14-15 weeks to reach that value - basically the end of this season. In the meantime, I expect the following things to happen:
1. Overall stock ownership should increase. This past week alone we saw 8.6% of available shares (assuming a 250/team cap) sold to users. I am not sure if we should expect that rate to increase or decrease, but if it stays anywhere in that neighborhood I think that the ownership advantage that NOLA stock has right now may reduce substantially by the end of this season.
2. NOLA's Elo score, the other underlying determinant of share price besides ownership, should go down. They squeaked by Honolulu in OT and lost to Philadelphia at home. I do not think the Second Line are a good team this season.
So by the time we reach the end of the season, I wouldn't be surprised if NOLA has failed to reach that lofty $1.24M goal. On the other hand, if you were somehow able to acquire more shares at $702k/share as the Google sheet values them, that would be a fantastic purchase given its current trend. There's clearly a giant gap in between those two prices that would be a reasonable evaluation, but I am choosing to make a SELL call to say that if you have any shares it wouldn't be unwise to put them up for auction and see if you can get a great price for them.
ADVICE: SELL (Previously: BUY)
AUSTIN COPPERHEADS
Current Price: $730,435
Price Change: $47,128 (+6.9%)
Shares Owned: 54
Ownership Change: +34
On-Field Performance: Win vs. HON 34-30
Austin remains a cheap stock with a shaky team underpinning it. Its ownership more than doubled this past week, so it may be worth hopping on the bandwagon and see if you can ride the gradual upwards trend it will have to a >10% gain. It's not my favorite BUY of the week, but it's not a bad option either.
ADVICE: BUY (Unchanged)
SAN JOSE SABERCATS
Current Price: $830,073
Price Change: +$7,563 (+0.9%)
Shares Owned: 62
Ownership Change: +40
On-Field Performance: Loss @ OCO 21-34
Despite losing to OCO, the Sabercats put up a great fight on the road by jumping out to a big lead at the start of the game, showing they are still a strong contender in their conference. The stock is still very cheap for a team this good, and people seem to have agreed with my BUY call from last time as ownership has increased substantially. Another solid investment opportunity here.
ADVICE: BUY (Unchanged)
ARIZONA OUTLAWS
Current Price: $739,462
Price Change: +$28,651 (+4.0%)
Shares Owned: 250
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Loss @ NYS 21-30
Our other capped team besides New Orleans gets a much more favorable call from me for two reasons. One, there hasn't been a ridiculously high auction price set on it yet that you could use to reasonably get a high price from selling via auction. Two, the team should be much better. I know the Outlaws are 0-2 but those losses involve a 3-point loss to what might be the best team in the league, and a 9-point loss to a solid team on the road. No reason to panic about the on-field product yet, so if any shares become available either by Casino auction or someone putting their personal shares up for sale, I'd consider putting some high bids in.
ADVICE: STRONG BUY (Unchanged)
HONOLULU HAHALUA
Current Price: $664,551
Price Change: -$61,146 (-8.4%)
Shares Owned: 43
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Loss @ AUS 30-34
I was optimistic about Honolulu heading into the season but they have done nothing to validate those opinions so far. Their stock is so cheap and unlikely to drop by too much more that it's probably not worth selling it, but I also don't know that I expect it to rise much higher than this for the rest of the season. Hold onto any stocks you have right now, but look elsewhere if you're looking to invest.
ADVICE: HOLD (Previously: BUY)
SARASOTA SAILFISH
Current Price: $942,648
Price Change: $12,020 (+1.3%)
Shares Owned: 113
Ownership Change: -4
On-Field Performance: Win vs. BER 43-10
Full disclosure: I sold the 4 shares of Sailfish stock this week. That was mostly just for liquidity reasons as I moved in on Colorado. If you're not looking to quickly move onto a different stock, I think it's worth holding onto the Sailfish as the solid ownership for a team that is in the top tier of their conference should see continued returns over the season. But if you're looking to buy new stock I think there are a few better options.
ADVICE: HOLD (Previously: BUY)
BERLIN FIRE SALAMANDERS
Current Price: $829,552
Price Change: -$105,322 (-11.3%)
Shares Owned: 120
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Loss @ SAR 10-43
As we've covered literally every other team in the conference by now, it shouldn't be a surprise, but I believe that BERLIN is the last team in the top tier of the NSFC. While they've started out 0-2 and not looked very good at all while doing it, I don't think that reflects the underlying quality of the team. In fact I could easily see them being the best team in the NSFC, and would not be surprised to see them as the 1 or 2 seed at the end of the season. While their record from last season and their losing streak at the beginning of this season has driven their price down, I believe that it's currently around its minimum. Buy low right now because I could easily see them rattling off a few wins and seeing a strong increase over the next few weeks.
ADVICE: STRONG BUY (Previously: HOLD)
NEW YORK SILVERBACKS
Current Price: $1,112,910
Price Change: -$84,424 (-7.1%)
Shares Owned: 67
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performance: Win vs. ARI 30-21
Basically the same advice as last time. The Silverbacks are a pretty solid team, but their price right now is too high. Sell now and buy in a couple weeks once the price has fallen a little more.
ADVICE: SELL (Unchanged)
SUMMARY
STRONG BUY
(++)
BUY
(+)
HOLD
(-)
(-)
(-)
SELL
(- -)
STRONG SELL
Good luck everyone!