Frost has been known to make massive bets in the past, but I don't think any have been as big as the potential for this one.
For those who are unaware, the bet, the first user bet for Season 29, is that Sarasota will have a record greater than 10 of the teams in the ISFL: Baltimore, Chicago, Colorado, Philly, Yellowknife, Austin, Honolulu, New Orleans, San Jose, and New York. If any one of them have a better record, Frost loses the bet. If the best record from those 10 teams and Sarasota's record are the same, it's a push.
The pot is 20 million dollars, 10 million from each participant, and Frost has allowed for a total of 13 separate pots to be made.
So, there's two sections to this bet I'd like to take a look at. One is going to have a lot more hard numbers, as the power of the sim and what it decides can and will make no sense. Right now, Frost has the 13th largest bank account in the entire ISFL, with just over 207 million dollars. He's gotten 4 people to accept as of this point in time, so if he wins, he'll have 247 million. This will actually still not get him into the top 10, although he will pass multiple people along the way; right now the closest person to that total who isn't over is myself, with 240 million, and the 11th highest bank account. If he loses, frost ends up with 167 million. This will put him in 16th place, just under NickyvMLP's bank account. The thing about this bet, though, is that it could spiral out of control very quickly. If all 13 spots are filled up, Frost winning shoots him up to the 5th highest bank account in the entire league with 337 million; the only people with a larger bank account would be Laser, Tesla, Isa, and of course Infinite. He'd beat out Steg and BigRed by less than 10 million to get to the 5th spot. Now, if he loses a maxed out bet, things get a lot more interesting, and potentially a lot more memey. Frost would fall to 77 million. This would bring him down to the 46th highest bank account in the ISFL as far as I can tell, going just under Dude_man.
So, what are the chances on the bet?
First, it's important to note the 3 teams not mentioned in the bet, other than, of course, Sarasota. Berlin ended last season with a better record than Sarasota, got hit with regression to a much lesser extent, picked up multiple top free agents in the offseason, and are considered one of the strongest teams in the league. Full disclosure, I have them picked for 1st in the league with the best record. Arizona is very similar to Berlin: they ended with a better record, didn't get hit by regression too harshly, and although they didn't get any high profile free agents in the offseason, they didn't need to in order to be a powerhouse of a team this season.
Then there's Orange County. This team, after missing the playoffs in back to back seasons at least in part due to lacking a running game, has finally bit the bullet and changed one of its players over to RB. However, they are one of the teams with the biggest amount of regression to face: 6 players from season 22 took their first hit of regression, and only one of those players is no longer starting at their position after regression, and 4 more players took their second hit of regression; all of those are also in line to be starting. Still, if OCO's new tank of a running back hits the ground running, while their passing offense survives the simultaneous regression of their QB, TE1, WR1, and OL1, and their Dline survives 2 players in 2nd regression plus another switching, then this team will be great. That was a few too many caveats for my liking when I did my season predictions, but they should at the very least be a good team. Good enough for Frost, according to himself in the public AZ discord, to not be surprised if they win the division.
Perhaps more importantly than who Frost didn't pick is who he did pick. Some of these are obvious: Baltimore, Philly, Chicago, Honolulu, San Jose, and New Orleans are all in some form of rebuild, retool, or generally dealing with the closing of their window for being competitive. If Sarasota ends up with a worse record than any of these teams, it would shock a lot of the ISFL and also be uproariously funny. As for the rest, New York is a team that should compete for the playoffs this season. They didn't get hit as hard in regression as Sarasota, but they also probably weren't as good as Sarasota last season despite ending up with the same record. Austin, in my opinion, is just flat out better than Sarasota and will be the team that is most likely to end up with a better record than them. There is something, however, that does put them a bit behind the 8-ball: the strong teams surrounding them. According to Frost, what he's banking on is Orange County, Arizona, and New York taking enough wins off of Austin to push them below Sarasota.
How about the other NSFC contenders? According to Frost, he thinks his team is better than Yellowknife and Colorado. I personally am not so sure. Yellowknife is interesting in that they ended higher than Sarasota last season, and faced a similar amount of regression. However, Yellowknife might have faced regression in more key areas; specifically their QB. Also their RB's regression was much more disastrous than Sarasota's. I've heard they're actually going to use Cue Jr for their RB1 during the upcoming season, although I can't be sure of that. Colorado is extremely interesting. By TPE, I'd have them as the 2nd best team in the NSFC, over Sarasota. However, last season I thought the same thing and then Colorado collapsed. I could give my reasons as to why I think that happened, but I'm just going to sum it up by saying I think Colorado could do the exact same thing again or they could be a powerhouse that should beat Sarasota to the punch here.
So, what's the verdict? I'd give Sarasota a pretty low chance of making Frost's dream come true, something on the verge of 1/4th. This isn't the best team in the league, and the bet itself practically admits to such. Frost is specifically saying that Sarasota must have a top 4 record in the league, and that the only teams that can be above them are Arizona, Orange County, and Berlin. I see too many ways that goes wrong, whether it's sim luck causing Sarasota to drop more games than it should, Colorado getting its head back in the game, Yellowknife beating them, Austin winning the ASFC, New York getting the sim luck that gave them a winning record and a practically 0 point differential last year, there's too many ways for something to go wrong here. I'm taking the bet.
(1210 words)
For those who are unaware, the bet, the first user bet for Season 29, is that Sarasota will have a record greater than 10 of the teams in the ISFL: Baltimore, Chicago, Colorado, Philly, Yellowknife, Austin, Honolulu, New Orleans, San Jose, and New York. If any one of them have a better record, Frost loses the bet. If the best record from those 10 teams and Sarasota's record are the same, it's a push.
The pot is 20 million dollars, 10 million from each participant, and Frost has allowed for a total of 13 separate pots to be made.
So, there's two sections to this bet I'd like to take a look at. One is going to have a lot more hard numbers, as the power of the sim and what it decides can and will make no sense. Right now, Frost has the 13th largest bank account in the entire ISFL, with just over 207 million dollars. He's gotten 4 people to accept as of this point in time, so if he wins, he'll have 247 million. This will actually still not get him into the top 10, although he will pass multiple people along the way; right now the closest person to that total who isn't over is myself, with 240 million, and the 11th highest bank account. If he loses, frost ends up with 167 million. This will put him in 16th place, just under NickyvMLP's bank account. The thing about this bet, though, is that it could spiral out of control very quickly. If all 13 spots are filled up, Frost winning shoots him up to the 5th highest bank account in the entire league with 337 million; the only people with a larger bank account would be Laser, Tesla, Isa, and of course Infinite. He'd beat out Steg and BigRed by less than 10 million to get to the 5th spot. Now, if he loses a maxed out bet, things get a lot more interesting, and potentially a lot more memey. Frost would fall to 77 million. This would bring him down to the 46th highest bank account in the ISFL as far as I can tell, going just under Dude_man.
So, what are the chances on the bet?
First, it's important to note the 3 teams not mentioned in the bet, other than, of course, Sarasota. Berlin ended last season with a better record than Sarasota, got hit with regression to a much lesser extent, picked up multiple top free agents in the offseason, and are considered one of the strongest teams in the league. Full disclosure, I have them picked for 1st in the league with the best record. Arizona is very similar to Berlin: they ended with a better record, didn't get hit by regression too harshly, and although they didn't get any high profile free agents in the offseason, they didn't need to in order to be a powerhouse of a team this season.
Then there's Orange County. This team, after missing the playoffs in back to back seasons at least in part due to lacking a running game, has finally bit the bullet and changed one of its players over to RB. However, they are one of the teams with the biggest amount of regression to face: 6 players from season 22 took their first hit of regression, and only one of those players is no longer starting at their position after regression, and 4 more players took their second hit of regression; all of those are also in line to be starting. Still, if OCO's new tank of a running back hits the ground running, while their passing offense survives the simultaneous regression of their QB, TE1, WR1, and OL1, and their Dline survives 2 players in 2nd regression plus another switching, then this team will be great. That was a few too many caveats for my liking when I did my season predictions, but they should at the very least be a good team. Good enough for Frost, according to himself in the public AZ discord, to not be surprised if they win the division.
Perhaps more importantly than who Frost didn't pick is who he did pick. Some of these are obvious: Baltimore, Philly, Chicago, Honolulu, San Jose, and New Orleans are all in some form of rebuild, retool, or generally dealing with the closing of their window for being competitive. If Sarasota ends up with a worse record than any of these teams, it would shock a lot of the ISFL and also be uproariously funny. As for the rest, New York is a team that should compete for the playoffs this season. They didn't get hit as hard in regression as Sarasota, but they also probably weren't as good as Sarasota last season despite ending up with the same record. Austin, in my opinion, is just flat out better than Sarasota and will be the team that is most likely to end up with a better record than them. There is something, however, that does put them a bit behind the 8-ball: the strong teams surrounding them. According to Frost, what he's banking on is Orange County, Arizona, and New York taking enough wins off of Austin to push them below Sarasota.
How about the other NSFC contenders? According to Frost, he thinks his team is better than Yellowknife and Colorado. I personally am not so sure. Yellowknife is interesting in that they ended higher than Sarasota last season, and faced a similar amount of regression. However, Yellowknife might have faced regression in more key areas; specifically their QB. Also their RB's regression was much more disastrous than Sarasota's. I've heard they're actually going to use Cue Jr for their RB1 during the upcoming season, although I can't be sure of that. Colorado is extremely interesting. By TPE, I'd have them as the 2nd best team in the NSFC, over Sarasota. However, last season I thought the same thing and then Colorado collapsed. I could give my reasons as to why I think that happened, but I'm just going to sum it up by saying I think Colorado could do the exact same thing again or they could be a powerhouse that should beat Sarasota to the punch here.
So, what's the verdict? I'd give Sarasota a pretty low chance of making Frost's dream come true, something on the verge of 1/4th. This isn't the best team in the league, and the bet itself practically admits to such. Frost is specifically saying that Sarasota must have a top 4 record in the league, and that the only teams that can be above them are Arizona, Orange County, and Berlin. I see too many ways that goes wrong, whether it's sim luck causing Sarasota to drop more games than it should, Colorado getting its head back in the game, Yellowknife beating them, Austin winning the ASFC, New York getting the sim luck that gave them a winning record and a practically 0 point differential last year, there's too many ways for something to go wrong here. I'm taking the bet.
(1210 words)