03-26-2023, 09:36 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-29-2023, 12:27 PM by shanghai_kid. Edited 1 time in total.)
Season 40 Prop Betting Recap
This will be a rather lengthy article as I'll be recapping week 16 as well as my entire betting experience for ISFL props in season 40. I had a lot of fun writing these articles and keeping track of my guesses and bets. It was definitely a great learning experience, not just for how to bet but also to pay more attention to the ISFL and the teams/players. I started really small in week 7, which ended up a win, even as I mistakenly bet on both props along side my parlay. Which is probably what got me hooked. But it also got me thinking how I could do guessing each week, so that's where the idea of tracking everything started. Thankfully these articles, along with a couple nice wins, have allowed me keep this up and afford all my weekly training (and will be paying for future equipment). So let's start with the week 16 recap:
![[Image: Zvhme9Z.png]](https://i.imgur.com/Zvhme9Z.png)
I won't go as in depth in the week 16 recap as I normally do since I think there is a bunch more stuff to talk about in this article. As mentioned previously, I went big and attempted a 7-leg parlay, just to see if I could use my previously gained knowledge and hit the big one. Sadly, it did not work out in my favor. Luckily I added some extra juice to a couple of the bets I was more confident on (Queen Elizabeth and Leek overs) and both of those hit. So I ended week 16 and the season on a high note still.
Season Recap
So I started tracking my guesses in week 8 of season 40. That gives me 9 weeks of recording my bets, where I made a total of 60 guesses, as each week had 6 or 7 props to bet on. I ended up getting 34 props correct and 26 props incorrect, for a 57% hit rate. So just a little better than flipping a coin, haha! The hard part about these bets is definitely being at the mercy of the sim. As mentioned in my articles, I really felt the hit-or-miss nature of the bets from week to week. Let's take a look at my percent hits each week in graph form.
Weekly % of Correct Guesses
![[Image: r1U86ul.png]](https://i.imgur.com/r1U86ul.png)
As you can see, it was really up-and-down each week, but overall the trend line shows a slight increase as the season went along. I would likely attribute this to learning which bets are better to bet on as some of the coin flip type bets seemed like a better gamble. My worst week as week 9 where I only got 2 props right and missed on 5 for a 29% hit rate. The best week as week 12 where I got 6 out of 7 correct for an 89% success rate. That week had me feeling really good but as you can see, I immediately plummeted under 50% again. The sim is a fickle b. To give an even more in depth look at the weekly props and how I fared, I wanted to share my overall spreadsheet that shows each prop, my guess of the result, if I included it in a parlay, then the result and finally if I hit or miss.
Week By Week Prop Bets and Results
![[Image: mjZ17N8.png]](https://i.imgur.com/mjZ17N8.png)
So all in all, more green than red, which is good. As mentioned, the season overall gave me a 57% hit rate. I have no idea if that's actually good or what percentage someone would get if they literally guessed with minimal knowledge of the bets. I'm going to make the spreadsheet a little fancier for next season but I wanted to keep it consistent and wasn't sure what to expect for the prop types. Overall, for specific prop bets that I used for parlays, I had 29 total props included as I typically did 2 or 3 leg parlays as well as the 7-leg parlay in week 16. Of those 29 specific bets, I was correct on 18 of them, giving me a result of 62% for my parlay bets. Unfortunately, you need 100% of your bets in the parlay to be correct to be paid out. Including my week 7 parlay attempt before I thought of this article, I hit on 1 2-leg parlay and 2 3-leg parlays, for a total of 3 parlays in 9 weeks (not including week 16 since that wasn't really legit). Since each parlay costs 1 million no matter how many props are included, I figured it was worth going for 3 bets each time instead of 2 bets as both options paid out 33% of the time (1/3 times for 2-leg and 2/6 times for 3-leg), so I might as well get that extra multiplier added. If I was more successful at the 2-leg parlays, I might have attempted that more often, but since it doesn't cost any more to add in the extra bet, I'll likely continue doing 3 bets unless there aren't any ones I like. Speaking of bet types that I like, let's break down these bets even further by bet type and how well I did on those.
Prop Bet Type and Analysis
![[Image: 569IMGf.png]](https://i.imgur.com/569IMGf.png)
So as you can see, there were only 11 prop bet types that repeated more than once in the 9 weeks of keeping track. Receiving yards, rushing yards, and tackles were the most common types and receiving yards were the only one that I was above 50% on. Pancakes were another one that was done semi-frequently and that I did well on. I thought I had that one figured out but then Diarra in week 15 totally upended that thought process. Passing yards is another that I did well on when it came up. Touchdowns overall seemed pretty hard to predict, especially when I was 100% sure the OCO/NYS over 3.5 rushing touchdown prop in week 13 was a slam dunk. Same as the Live Laughlove 1.5 touchdown prop in week 9. I think that falls under 'sim gonna sim' though as of the 4 bets involving touchdowns, I only got 1 right. That's about the only information I learned from doing this breakdown was that I probably should avoid most touchdown props.
Final Betting Totals
Total Amount Bet Total Amount Won Final Result
$28,000,000 $37,600,000 +$9,600,000
So overall, I think I did a pretty decent job this season. I definitely took a few lumps along the way but adding a couple extra bets along with my parlays helped cover some of the losses. Of course, the only way I could have continued making bets each week was a result of the article series I started to provide transparency for journey. I'm just a rookie so I'm working on exploring many different avenues of making money as well as figuring out what I want to do in this league. With the community being so damn awesome, I want to contribute in one way or another and a form of media seemed like the easiest way to provide some entertainment. I'm not sure if anyone actually used my advice to bet (other than @baz1757, which, sorry dude) but I still had fun writing these after each week. I hope you all at least got some enjoyment out of the series and I'll see what I can come up with for season 41 of the ISFL. Gambling likely won't be my main source of income (at least I hope not!) in this league but as long as you all enjoy the content, I'll continue to have some fun.
Let me know if there's anything else you want to see in the future or ways I can improve, or if I should just stop, haha. Thanks for taking time out of your busy lives to join me for some good ol' fashion gambling fun!
![[Image: CROney3.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/CROney3.gif)
"...and has what is honestly the most bizarre attachment to ISFL fantasy football and user bets..." - aeonsjenni