05-12-2023, 02:53 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-18-2023, 01:48 PM by xenosthelegend. Edited 1 time in total.)
Burn baby burn. That sums up the last few weeks of picks for me. The hole is growing deeper and so is my despair. There really is only one way out and that is to keep playing! Week 12 would have been rough if it wasn’t for one bet on the Double Doink longest field goal line, but even that one was a nail biter! I finished Week 12 1 for 3, not counting the parlay that of course did not win, and 3 for 7 overall. Once again thanks to the team that makes the casino run. Let’s take a look at my week 12 betting summary below.
Week 12 Review
Elsar Jones (NOLA) Passing Attempts (46.5) UNDER – I took the under on this with the idea that HON could generally hold NOLA’s offense and prevent a lot of first downs. I also identified this one as a coinflip and didn’t put any money on it. By the end of the game Jones had attempted 49 passes, just hitting the over. I am not that shook up about missing this one.
Ceti Pyxis (COL) Rushing Attempts (14.5) OVER – Pyxis didn’t even get a chance this game. COL only gave him FIVE just 5 rushing attempts against Berlin. Previously averaging 16.5 rushing attempts per game COL drastically changed their game plan here and opted for a strictly passing offense. Berlin’s defense also did not let COL convert many first downs, totaling only 9 for the whole game. Shoutout to Berlin for this week’s game as well. Seems like the GMs over there figured out how to make their offense work. I got scorched on this one.
Walter McKinley (CHI) Receiving Yards (47.5) OVER – Another one that beat me real bad. McKinley had been averaging 55.8 receiving yards per game. I had predicted this game being a shootout but in actuality it was kind of a limp noodle fight. SJS only had a total of 215 yards and CHI had 267, how CHI managed to score 31 points with those kinds of stats I have no idea. McKinley had a measly 23 yards over 5 carries. I felt really good about this one going into the games but felt sick to my stomach afterwards.
Rocky Moreaux (BAL) Receptions (6.5) OVER – This is another one what stung. Mostly because Rocky had the targets to get 7 catches but the completion rate on the night for Baltimore was abysmal. Beatz finished the night going 23/44, a 52.3% completion rate. To no one’s surprise this lead to the Hawks losing. Rocky ended the game 5 catches for 10 targets and somehow letting the ball down more than me.
Spottie O’Dopaliscious (AZ) Passes Defended (2.5) UNDER – I got this one right at least. Spottie finished the game with 0 passes defended. Too bad I didn’t put any money on it. Silly defense props.
Double Doink (YKW) Longest Field Goal (46.5) UNDER – This one was my saving grace. Though as I right this I think it was put into the casino receipts list that Doink did successfully hit a field goal over 46.5 yards, which he did not. So pending that being corrected this one saved my ass. I put $3M on this one, my biggest bet. Statistically it just seems very unlikely, especially against CTC who was expected to really put the screws to YKW. That didn’t stop Doink from attempting one from 49 yards though, scariest 1.5 seconds of my life, but he ended up missing the kick. This was the first 40-49 yard FG he has missed all season, so I would say everyone who took the under got lucky, but it was still the right pick.
Walrus Jones (OCO) Pancakes (6.5) OVER – What can I say this is a joke of a line so I won’t put money on it. I got it right. Jones had like 13 or 14 pancakes, but this is too hard to predict in my opinion, at least it makes me look better in overall chances.
Week 13
This week the casino gave us some interesting lines that I already took a little bit of a peak at. There is one I already know I am going to blasting a bunch of money on and a handful that seem like a toss up. Fortunately, I have a bit more time to breakdown each line than last week so hopefully we will see my results improve. Let’s get into this week’s prop bets.
Week 13 Analysis
Bean Delphine Jr. (HON) Rushing Yards (107.5) UNDER – Feed Bean. Bean has been the star running back of HONs offense all season. In Week 12 they ran for 221 yards, more yards alone than total passing yards. Hard to deny the prowess of this running back. Bean is averaging 108.8 yards per game currently, though it is skewed by a few outliers like last weeks game. HON is playing SJS this week and in their previous match up Delphine ran for 102 yards. SJS has the highest Tackles for Loss in league which to me would insinuate they are good at stopping runs. Looking at SJS previous games Bean has totaled the most yards against SJS and no one else has come close and that was off of 32 rushing attempts. I don’t doubt Bean but the stats are telling me to take the under here.
PeePee Poop-Eater Sr. (NOLA) Receptions (7.5) OVER – Mr. Poop Eater Sr. is averaging 7.8 carries per game which immediately puts me off from betting on this line. Theya re also playing against NYS who have a good pass defense. In their last matchup Poop Eater had 21 total targets and only caught 9 of them. If he gets any less targets there is no telling if he would catch 8 balls. Because NOLAs offense is solely passed focused I am going to guess over on this but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Poop-Eater eat poop and only get 7 receptions.
Johnny Blaze Jr. (SAR) Touchdowns (0.5) OVER – Johnny is averaging 1 TD per game and is an absolute weapon for SAR especially in the red zone. I am going over on this one and it definitely is going in the parlay. YKW will still probably win, but I think Sarasota won’t make it easy and Johny is going to play a big part in that. I am a big Tight End fan.
Tolliver Bros (BAL) Scrimmage Yards (109.5) OVER – This line scares the shit out of me because I am so damn confident in the over. The two Tolliver boys, Penger Tolliver and Money Tolliver, are averaging just about 147 scrimmage yards together per game. That makes this seem so strange that the line would be set 40 points below their average. What does the casino know that we don’t? Baltimore is playing Colorado who isn’t particularly known for their defense. In the last meetup the Tolliver Bros totaled 146 scrimmage yards and I don’t see why this one would be any different. There is going to be a lot of money on this line tonight from everyone, I guarantee it. Hopefully we bankrupt the casino on this one. Cheers!
Sam Sunigh (OCO) Tackles (7.5) UNDER – Sam is currently averaging 6.8 tackles per game. Additionally Sam only managed to secure 5 tackles in the previous match up between OCO and AZ. AZ doesn’t run the all to much which lessens the total number of plays and reduces the number of tackles possible. I am leaning towards Sam getting 7 or less tackles tonight. Sorry Sam.
Known Acquaitance (BER) Longest Punt (59.5) OVER – Ok casino heads this is funny, because it is as ridiculous as it gets. Longest punt? The sim is so funky when it comes to kicking, let alone punting specifically. They either bomb the ball down the field or kick it 25 yards. There really is no in between. We know BER will be punting a lot, as not converting the first down has usually been their MO, outside of week 12 mind you. So there will be plenty of chances for Known to bomb the ball downfield. His current average is 45 yards with his longest being 66. By my count he has had 6 punts over this line, so really there is a good chance he does it again. This week BER is playing AUS who will probably put up more of a fight against BER than COL did and make BER punt more from further back field giving Known the chance to hit a 60 yarder. I am going over.
Total League Points (329.5) UNDER – This is a really interesting one. Definitely a hard one to determine. I will try to piece together all the rematch games going on this week and see what the original scores were. The only non-repeat match up this week is BER vs AUS, the totals of all previous games is 245, with one of those being a 61 point game and several 40 points games. There are only a total of 7 games to be played so the average total score needs to be 48 in order to break this so 28-20. I just don’t see that happening, there are constantly low scoring games. I am going under. And putting this in the parlay.
Again I am only putting on money on bets that I am most confident in as I have been having the best luck with that so far. This week I have a total of 3 bet and a 3-leg parlay. See the summary of my bets below.
Good luck to everyone this week, definitely so fun lines out this week. Hopefully the casino keeps up the creativity. I also can’t wait to see what kind of props if at all we will see for the Ultimus. Happy Betting!
Season 41 Totals
Total Wagered: $60,000,000 ($8,000,000 pending Week 13)*
Total Profit: -$10,200,000
*There was an excel error in my previous post, but has been fixed, we are now up to date on how much money I have laundered gambled.
Week 12 Review
Elsar Jones (NOLA) Passing Attempts (46.5) UNDER – I took the under on this with the idea that HON could generally hold NOLA’s offense and prevent a lot of first downs. I also identified this one as a coinflip and didn’t put any money on it. By the end of the game Jones had attempted 49 passes, just hitting the over. I am not that shook up about missing this one.
Ceti Pyxis (COL) Rushing Attempts (14.5) OVER – Pyxis didn’t even get a chance this game. COL only gave him FIVE just 5 rushing attempts against Berlin. Previously averaging 16.5 rushing attempts per game COL drastically changed their game plan here and opted for a strictly passing offense. Berlin’s defense also did not let COL convert many first downs, totaling only 9 for the whole game. Shoutout to Berlin for this week’s game as well. Seems like the GMs over there figured out how to make their offense work. I got scorched on this one.
Walter McKinley (CHI) Receiving Yards (47.5) OVER – Another one that beat me real bad. McKinley had been averaging 55.8 receiving yards per game. I had predicted this game being a shootout but in actuality it was kind of a limp noodle fight. SJS only had a total of 215 yards and CHI had 267, how CHI managed to score 31 points with those kinds of stats I have no idea. McKinley had a measly 23 yards over 5 carries. I felt really good about this one going into the games but felt sick to my stomach afterwards.
Rocky Moreaux (BAL) Receptions (6.5) OVER – This is another one what stung. Mostly because Rocky had the targets to get 7 catches but the completion rate on the night for Baltimore was abysmal. Beatz finished the night going 23/44, a 52.3% completion rate. To no one’s surprise this lead to the Hawks losing. Rocky ended the game 5 catches for 10 targets and somehow letting the ball down more than me.
Spottie O’Dopaliscious (AZ) Passes Defended (2.5) UNDER – I got this one right at least. Spottie finished the game with 0 passes defended. Too bad I didn’t put any money on it. Silly defense props.
Double Doink (YKW) Longest Field Goal (46.5) UNDER – This one was my saving grace. Though as I right this I think it was put into the casino receipts list that Doink did successfully hit a field goal over 46.5 yards, which he did not. So pending that being corrected this one saved my ass. I put $3M on this one, my biggest bet. Statistically it just seems very unlikely, especially against CTC who was expected to really put the screws to YKW. That didn’t stop Doink from attempting one from 49 yards though, scariest 1.5 seconds of my life, but he ended up missing the kick. This was the first 40-49 yard FG he has missed all season, so I would say everyone who took the under got lucky, but it was still the right pick.
Walrus Jones (OCO) Pancakes (6.5) OVER – What can I say this is a joke of a line so I won’t put money on it. I got it right. Jones had like 13 or 14 pancakes, but this is too hard to predict in my opinion, at least it makes me look better in overall chances.
Week 13
This week the casino gave us some interesting lines that I already took a little bit of a peak at. There is one I already know I am going to blasting a bunch of money on and a handful that seem like a toss up. Fortunately, I have a bit more time to breakdown each line than last week so hopefully we will see my results improve. Let’s get into this week’s prop bets.
Week 13 Analysis
Bean Delphine Jr. (HON) Rushing Yards (107.5) UNDER – Feed Bean. Bean has been the star running back of HONs offense all season. In Week 12 they ran for 221 yards, more yards alone than total passing yards. Hard to deny the prowess of this running back. Bean is averaging 108.8 yards per game currently, though it is skewed by a few outliers like last weeks game. HON is playing SJS this week and in their previous match up Delphine ran for 102 yards. SJS has the highest Tackles for Loss in league which to me would insinuate they are good at stopping runs. Looking at SJS previous games Bean has totaled the most yards against SJS and no one else has come close and that was off of 32 rushing attempts. I don’t doubt Bean but the stats are telling me to take the under here.
PeePee Poop-Eater Sr. (NOLA) Receptions (7.5) OVER – Mr. Poop Eater Sr. is averaging 7.8 carries per game which immediately puts me off from betting on this line. Theya re also playing against NYS who have a good pass defense. In their last matchup Poop Eater had 21 total targets and only caught 9 of them. If he gets any less targets there is no telling if he would catch 8 balls. Because NOLAs offense is solely passed focused I am going to guess over on this but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Poop-Eater eat poop and only get 7 receptions.
Johnny Blaze Jr. (SAR) Touchdowns (0.5) OVER – Johnny is averaging 1 TD per game and is an absolute weapon for SAR especially in the red zone. I am going over on this one and it definitely is going in the parlay. YKW will still probably win, but I think Sarasota won’t make it easy and Johny is going to play a big part in that. I am a big Tight End fan.
Tolliver Bros (BAL) Scrimmage Yards (109.5) OVER – This line scares the shit out of me because I am so damn confident in the over. The two Tolliver boys, Penger Tolliver and Money Tolliver, are averaging just about 147 scrimmage yards together per game. That makes this seem so strange that the line would be set 40 points below their average. What does the casino know that we don’t? Baltimore is playing Colorado who isn’t particularly known for their defense. In the last meetup the Tolliver Bros totaled 146 scrimmage yards and I don’t see why this one would be any different. There is going to be a lot of money on this line tonight from everyone, I guarantee it. Hopefully we bankrupt the casino on this one. Cheers!
Sam Sunigh (OCO) Tackles (7.5) UNDER – Sam is currently averaging 6.8 tackles per game. Additionally Sam only managed to secure 5 tackles in the previous match up between OCO and AZ. AZ doesn’t run the all to much which lessens the total number of plays and reduces the number of tackles possible. I am leaning towards Sam getting 7 or less tackles tonight. Sorry Sam.
Known Acquaitance (BER) Longest Punt (59.5) OVER – Ok casino heads this is funny, because it is as ridiculous as it gets. Longest punt? The sim is so funky when it comes to kicking, let alone punting specifically. They either bomb the ball down the field or kick it 25 yards. There really is no in between. We know BER will be punting a lot, as not converting the first down has usually been their MO, outside of week 12 mind you. So there will be plenty of chances for Known to bomb the ball downfield. His current average is 45 yards with his longest being 66. By my count he has had 6 punts over this line, so really there is a good chance he does it again. This week BER is playing AUS who will probably put up more of a fight against BER than COL did and make BER punt more from further back field giving Known the chance to hit a 60 yarder. I am going over.
Total League Points (329.5) UNDER – This is a really interesting one. Definitely a hard one to determine. I will try to piece together all the rematch games going on this week and see what the original scores were. The only non-repeat match up this week is BER vs AUS, the totals of all previous games is 245, with one of those being a 61 point game and several 40 points games. There are only a total of 7 games to be played so the average total score needs to be 48 in order to break this so 28-20. I just don’t see that happening, there are constantly low scoring games. I am going under. And putting this in the parlay.
Again I am only putting on money on bets that I am most confident in as I have been having the best luck with that so far. This week I have a total of 3 bet and a 3-leg parlay. See the summary of my bets below.
Good luck to everyone this week, definitely so fun lines out this week. Hopefully the casino keeps up the creativity. I also can’t wait to see what kind of props if at all we will see for the Ultimus. Happy Betting!
Season 41 Totals
Total Wagered: $60,000,000 ($8,000,000 pending Week 13)*
Total Profit: -$10,200,000
*There was an excel error in my previous post, but has been fixed, we are now up to date on how much money I have laundered gambled.