06-08-2023, 05:51 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-11-2023, 09:06 AM by Aneeqs. Edited 1 time in total.)
It is tremendously hard to go winless in the NFL. It's happened 4 total times in the Super Bowl era, and each team required a complete lack of talent, or barring that, barely any talent and some dramatically bad luck to go a full season without a win.
This is also true of the ISFL, though we're a bit more prone to winless seasons. It's happened 6 times in 41 seasons. It's actually a simple math problem as to why it's so hard to go winless: you just have too many chances, you've gotta get lucky once, right?
Let's make up a team who has a 30% chance to win any game over the course of the season. The chances for this team to be winless in a 16 game season is just over 0.3%. Not 3 percent, that is 3 thousandths. If you bump it down to a 25% chance, it's a little more likely, but still barely over 1% of teams would go winless in this scenario. Even a team who would only win any game 20% of the time has a less than 3% chance to go winless.
So with that preamble all out of the way, this season's NOLA is the second team that I've seen in my 11 or so seasons as a part of the league that I think has a chance to go winless. I was actually wrong with my first guess, S28 Baltimore, but New Orleans is just a team that is almost completely devoid of talent and just needs a few bad breaks to go winless. But I wanted to compare them to two other particular teams to just see how they stack up before a snap of football has been played: The S27 Hawks, and the S38 Hahalua. These are the previous 2 teams to go winless in a 16 game season in ISFL history, the club that I'm sure New Orleans is desperate to avoid.
As a comment, I'm taking the "Start of Season" mark from the 10/16/22 update for S38, and from my S27 Article. There would be one more update before the season starts for each of the 3 as I'm writing.
Quarterbacks:
S27 Hawks: Chika Fujiwara (1297 TPE)
S27 Hawks post Week 10: Luke Skywalker (917 TPE) (IA)
S42 Second Line: Elessar Jones (824 TPE) (IA)
S38 Hahalua: Adrien St Christmas (523 TPE)
Elessar Jones should have 824 TPE after second regression, but that's besides the point. It is somewhat notable that the Baltimore of the final 6 games of the S27 season was far worse than the Baltimore at the beginning of the season, due to them going on a midseason fire sale. This saw them going to a much worse QB, lose some key players, and all in all somewhat sealed their fate. However, I don't think it really matters for this comparison; at that point Baltimore had just lost its best chance at getting a win all season and even then, the QB they picked up was still better than Jones. That being said, the second worst team ever by my estimation has easily the best QB of this group, and the second best winless team has by far the worst. 523 TPE is the lowest I think I've ever seen for an ISFL QB, it's even lower than Wolfie's is right now in the exact same situation.
Running Backs:
S27 Hawks: RB1 (824 TPE), RB2 (212 TPE)
S38 Hahalua: RB1 (639 TPE), RB2 (445 effective TPE) (IA)
S42 Second Line: RB1 (428 TPE, 250 effective)
There's not really a competition here, even if NOLA's RB updates past the DSFL cap; they're still currently below the IA RB2 of the S38 Hahalua, much less either other team's RB1. I think 250 effective TPE is the lowest I've ever seen on an RB1 in the league, though granted I've seen plenty of backup RBs below the DSFL cap. I don't think there's much of an argument for the Hawks to go below the Hahalua here, even if the Hahalua have more TPE combined between the two players. RBBC is helpful, but it's just not required and that doesn't change the near 200 TPE gap between the two RB1s.
Wide Receivers:
S42 Second Line: WR1 (924 TPE), WR2 (416 TPE), WR3 (333 TPE)
S27 Hawks: WR1 (737 TPE), WR2 (597 TPE) (IA), WR3 (474 TPE)
S38 Hahalua: WR1 (812 TPE), WR2 (491 TPE), WR3 (324 TPE) (IA)
I changed my mind on how to order these multiple times, they're all very comparable. The Hawks have the best WR2 and WR3, by a pretty significant distance. NOLA has the worst WR2, but the best WR1. I ended up with this order though I could probably be persuaded any particular way except putting the Second Line below the Hahalua.
There is one other note, in the Week 10 tear down the team trades, the Hawks sent away their WR1, and unlike the QB situation, did not replace them. At that point the Hawks are by far the worst team on this list.
Tight Ends:
S27 Hawks: TE1 (1091 TPE)
S38 Hahalua: TE1 (396 TPE)
S42 Second Line: TE1 (314 TPE, currently 250 effective)
S27 Hawks post Week 10: (219 effective TPE) (IA)
The Hawks practically lap the other two until the trade, that's really all I can say here, there's not a lot of analysis, or seemingly worth, in this position.
Offensive Line:
S27 Hawks: OL1 (587 TPE)
S27 Hawks post Week 10: No OL Rostered
S38 Hahalua: OL1 (275 TPE) (IA)
S42 Second Line: OL1 (106 TPE)
Perhaps it's unsurprising that the OLine, a unit the entire rest of the offense is built upon, was terrible for all 3 of these teams, with only the Hawks having a single member of the line that would grade out as better than the average bot. The Second Line in particular could probably pick up a decently earning S43 OLine prospect who would have earned more TPE than their actual OL1. I think 106 might be the lowest TPE I've ever seen on a roster, not sure, but it's definitely down there. I think there's actually a decent argument that the Hawks with no Oline on the roster and a line full of bots was actually better than having the Hahalua's lone IA player. And there's actually not an argument in favor of the Second Line here.
Overall, in terms of offense, the Hawks are by far the best. The only position where they aren't clearly the best is Wide Receiver, they have significant leads compared to the other two at Offensive Line, Tight End, and most importantly QB. I think I'd give the Second Line the edge over the Hahalua as well; while the Second Line were worse than the Hahalua at more positions than the other way around, the Hahalua being so bad at QB gives them too big of a hurdle. The Hahalua were a team that I personally do not understand how their passing game worked so well when looking back at the S38 season on the index, while the Second Line might not be the worst passing offense in the league as a preseason prediction, which is something I assume nobody would have made for a Hahalua team with a peak receiver below 850 TPE and a QB nearly 300 TPE below that WR1.
Post the trade, I think the Hawks might have the worst offense, but there's not a significant distance between them and the Hahalua there; their QB was still nearly 400 TPE better, the difference in lines was nonexistent, and they still had a better running game. On second thought, nah, the Hahalua are still at the bottom even post the week 10 trades, the only significant advantage the Hahalua have is at the WR position and QB matters more.
Defensive Tackles:
S27 Hawks: DT1 (547 TPE) (IA)
S38 Hahalua: DT1 (54 TPE)
S42 Second Line: No DT Rostered
I cannot tell what is more hilarious, that the 106 TPE "Maybe the lowest I've ever seen on a roster" lasted for one position, or that neither he nor this guy with 54 TPE, one activity check and one week prediction, were technically inactive, even if this guy never updated again. Or I could go with the 3rd option, that the 54 TPE player made for a technically better Defensive Tackle than the Second Line's complete lack of one. Spoiler warning, but it's not even made up for by the Defensive Ends, either; the Second Line only roster 2 leaving them with a blank, or more likely a player played out of position, on a 3 person front. I assume that's what they're going for considering otherwise they'd have 2 players out of position on a 4 player front. To be just as fair, or rather to bash on the bad position for as much as it deserves, the Hahalua with only 2 DEs were ALSO forced to play this 54 TPE player on their line in a 3 person front. Speaking of DEs...
Defensive Ends:
S27 Hawks: DE1 (712 TPE), DE2 (535 TPE), DE3 (326 TPE)
S42 Second Line: DE1 (503 TPE), DE2 (322 TPE, currently 250 effective) (IA)
S38 Hahalua: DE1 (372 TPE) (IA), DE2 (250 effective TPE) (IA)
I probably said, or at the very least thought, a few negative things about the S27 Hawks' DE situation, and future events would make this line even worse in retrospect (DE2 stopped earning completely, DE1 was only a couple seasons away from regression, and DE3...was Zamir's multi). And yet compared to EITHER of the lines that I'm covering, that line smells of sunshine and roses. I think the Second Line end up in a better spot overall compared to the Hahalua? Playing their CB4 out of position might even get better results than the 54 TPE player that was the anchor of the Hahalua's line, and the Second Line's DE1 is pretty significantly better than the Hahalua's, and is also active with the possibility of improvement. That's really the judgement of both the DE position and the DLine as a whole among these 3 teams. This also wasn't even changed by the trade midseason. For the entirety of the season, the Hawks had 3 players on the line who were better than the Second Line's DE1, the only player even close to matching them from a different team.
Linebackers:
S42 Second Line: LB1 (943 TPE post regression), LB2 (645 effective TPE) (IA), LB3 (393 TPE), LB4 (266 TPE)
S27 Hawks: LB1 (478 TPE), LB2 (454 TPE), LB3 (354 TPE), LB4 (329 TPE)
S38 Hahalua: LB1 (338 TPE) (IA), LB2 (242 TPE), LB3 (170 effective TPE) (IA)
This is the first position that we've looked at where a team that wasn't the S27 Hawks had a significant advantage compared to the other two teams, and it's also the second time I'd give the Second Line the "best overall" title. This linebacking corps isn't exactly fierce, but the Hawks have less TPE from their first 2 players than the Second Line have from their top LB, the Second Line's 2nd LB is also significantly above the Hawks, and the 3rd LB is better than anyone on a different team past the top 2 of the Hawks. The LB4...OK, sucks, but is still better than the Hahalua's LB2 or LB3. Speaking of the Hahalua, that is a profoundly awful group of 3, and you could probably run the ball down this team's throats all day. When considering the LB3's TPE is actually miniscule due to having a ton banked and never unbanking, the Hahalua managed to have an AVERAGE of 250 TPE per player on their LB corps to start the season. At least one of them was still updating?
Cornerbacks:
S27 Hawks: CB1 (1048 TPE) (IA), CB2 (783 TPE), CB3 (395 TPE)
S42 Second Line: CB1 (627 TPE post regression), CB2 (522 TPE), CB3 (320 TPE), CB4 (281 TPE)
S38 Hahalua: CB1 (664 TPE) (IA), CB2 (435 TPE), CB3 (208 TPE) (IA)
One could argue that the Hahalua should go above the Second Line due to a marginally better CB1. They'd be very wrong to do so, but they're welcome to go ahead and try. But that's the only question here; the Hawks have the top 2 CBs here and have a better 3rd CB than anyone else, the Hahalua's CB2 was nearly 100 below the Second Line's, and their IA CB3 was over 100 below the Second Line's. 37 TPE more than the Second Line for their CB1 doesn't really matter, especially when the Second Line's CB1 is still active and updating.
Safeties:
S27 Hawks: S1 (658 TPE), S2 (619 TPE)
S27 Hawks post Week 10: S1 (658 TPE), S2 (527 TPE)
S42 Second Line: S1 (415 TPE), S2 (237 TPE)
S38 Hahalua: S1 (250 effective TPE), S2 (249 effective TPE)
I was actually quite surprised with the outcome of this. Sure, the Hawks being on top again and the Hahalua being last isn't surprising, it's been the same rating for a majority of these positions. No, the real surprise was that the Hawks...weren't as torn down by the midseason trades as I thought they were, at least compared to these two teams. Sure, their TE went from well above the other two to between the Hahalua and the Second Line, sure, their QB went from great to "Bad but still above these two by a lot", sure their OL went from 1 good player to 0. But here, at the safety position, it really wasn't that big of a downgrade by TPE. The guy they traded for was also active and earning. And either way, whichever period of time you're talking about, the Hawks had 2 Safeties better than anyone the Second Line or Hahalua had. The debate between NOLA and Honolulu here should also be nonexistent.
When talking about the defense as a whole, the Hawks had the best and the Hahalua had the worst. The D Lines in particular for both the Second Line and the Hahalua are profoundly awful, and the linebacking group for the Hahalua does that line absolutely no favors, especially compared to the actually OK Second Line's linebackers. And the Hawks had a significantly better secondary than either of them as well, even post the trade.
Kicker/Punter:
S42 Second Line: K/P (937 TPE)
S27 Hawks: K/P (421 TPE) (IA)
S38 Hahalua: K/P (110 effective TPE) (IA)
Finally, the Second Line have the kicking advantage for sure between these 3 teams. The Hawks had a decent, effective kicker, while the Hahalua had a godawful one.
I talk a lot of shit about the S27 Hawks' performance on the field. I also decried the S38 Hahalua, but nowhere near as badly. In terms of play, there's not a question which was the worse team between the two. The Hawks scored over 6 less points per game, and allowed 4 more. Even if I just restricted it to the first 10 games of the season, they still scored only 15.5 per game and gave up 36.9 points per game; that'd still be the second worst defense for a winless team, though it'd be the best offense outside of the later Hahalua. In those first 10 games, the Hawks were somewhere around the 3rd or 4th least bad winless team out of the 6 we have currently; definitely better than both Yeti seasons and definitely worse than the S16 Copperheads or the S38 Hahalua.
I still believe that the Hawks were the second worst team ever in terms of product; even without the trade, the first 10 games contained the 3 games that people might have thought the Hawks could win. But in terms of TPE, the Hawks were far more unlucky that I realized. Or maybe the Hahalua were just much more lucky while still going winless. I think it's both; as said above, even if you are a profoundly awful team it still takes a lot of bad luck to go winless, though even with that said it boggles the mind that the Hahalua had a middle of the pack passing offense with a QB starting the season at 523 TPE.
When comparing teams straight up, there's no denying that the New Orleans Second Line has a better team than the Hahalua. The only 4 positions where the Hahalua have an advantage are OLine, RB, DT, and TE. Only the Oline and RB spots have a gap that's significant in the slightest, and while that's not a good thing, that's certainly miles better than being far worse in the secondary, at quarterback, and the Hahalua managed to have a worse DLine despite rostering one more player on it, even. If I compare the Second Line to the Hahalua, they look like a team that's definitely not going to be going winless, as they're significantly better than the team I think is the second best winless team.
Of course, there's the other side of the comparison. If I compared the Second Line to the Hawks at the start of the season, then the Second Line manage to look worse than the team that finished up as the 2nd worst team ever. Even if I took them after the midseason trade, the Second Line on D have a significantly better LB group, at the cost of being significantly worse than the Hawks on the DLine and among Defensive Backs. I am out here, comparing the Second Line's defense to the second worst defense of all time and the worst among winless teams, and the Second Line are coming up SHORT. Of course, if I compared the Hawks to the Hahalua, it'd look even more stark and that team managed to be significantly better on Defense.
Both the S27 Hawks and the S42 Second Line are better than the Hahalua were as things currently stand, even after the week 10 trades for the Hawks. Before the trades, the Hawks were definitely better than the Second Line, and after it's up in the air in my mind; the Second Line's offense was better due mainly to their Wide Receivers being worth literally anything, while the Hawks' defense was better because the only place it was worse was at Linebacker even after the trade. I think I'm leaning towards the Hawks having a better team overall, but I definitely could be persuaded otherwise.
All in all, the Hawks and the Hahalua show what bad and good luck can do to a bad squad, while still each managing to go 0-16. This Second Line team can certainly follow in their footsteps, but it'll take some bad luck to get there no matter what. Or finding someone to bite on a trade for Mobi and Poop Eater, that'd probably do it as well.
This is also true of the ISFL, though we're a bit more prone to winless seasons. It's happened 6 times in 41 seasons. It's actually a simple math problem as to why it's so hard to go winless: you just have too many chances, you've gotta get lucky once, right?
Let's make up a team who has a 30% chance to win any game over the course of the season. The chances for this team to be winless in a 16 game season is just over 0.3%. Not 3 percent, that is 3 thousandths. If you bump it down to a 25% chance, it's a little more likely, but still barely over 1% of teams would go winless in this scenario. Even a team who would only win any game 20% of the time has a less than 3% chance to go winless.
So with that preamble all out of the way, this season's NOLA is the second team that I've seen in my 11 or so seasons as a part of the league that I think has a chance to go winless. I was actually wrong with my first guess, S28 Baltimore, but New Orleans is just a team that is almost completely devoid of talent and just needs a few bad breaks to go winless. But I wanted to compare them to two other particular teams to just see how they stack up before a snap of football has been played: The S27 Hawks, and the S38 Hahalua. These are the previous 2 teams to go winless in a 16 game season in ISFL history, the club that I'm sure New Orleans is desperate to avoid.
As a comment, I'm taking the "Start of Season" mark from the 10/16/22 update for S38, and from my S27 Article. There would be one more update before the season starts for each of the 3 as I'm writing.
Quarterbacks:
S27 Hawks: Chika Fujiwara (1297 TPE)
S27 Hawks post Week 10: Luke Skywalker (917 TPE) (IA)
S42 Second Line: Elessar Jones (824 TPE) (IA)
S38 Hahalua: Adrien St Christmas (523 TPE)
Elessar Jones should have 824 TPE after second regression, but that's besides the point. It is somewhat notable that the Baltimore of the final 6 games of the S27 season was far worse than the Baltimore at the beginning of the season, due to them going on a midseason fire sale. This saw them going to a much worse QB, lose some key players, and all in all somewhat sealed their fate. However, I don't think it really matters for this comparison; at that point Baltimore had just lost its best chance at getting a win all season and even then, the QB they picked up was still better than Jones. That being said, the second worst team ever by my estimation has easily the best QB of this group, and the second best winless team has by far the worst. 523 TPE is the lowest I think I've ever seen for an ISFL QB, it's even lower than Wolfie's is right now in the exact same situation.
Running Backs:
S27 Hawks: RB1 (824 TPE), RB2 (212 TPE)
S38 Hahalua: RB1 (639 TPE), RB2 (445 effective TPE) (IA)
S42 Second Line: RB1 (428 TPE, 250 effective)
There's not really a competition here, even if NOLA's RB updates past the DSFL cap; they're still currently below the IA RB2 of the S38 Hahalua, much less either other team's RB1. I think 250 effective TPE is the lowest I've ever seen on an RB1 in the league, though granted I've seen plenty of backup RBs below the DSFL cap. I don't think there's much of an argument for the Hawks to go below the Hahalua here, even if the Hahalua have more TPE combined between the two players. RBBC is helpful, but it's just not required and that doesn't change the near 200 TPE gap between the two RB1s.
Wide Receivers:
S42 Second Line: WR1 (924 TPE), WR2 (416 TPE), WR3 (333 TPE)
S27 Hawks: WR1 (737 TPE), WR2 (597 TPE) (IA), WR3 (474 TPE)
S38 Hahalua: WR1 (812 TPE), WR2 (491 TPE), WR3 (324 TPE) (IA)
I changed my mind on how to order these multiple times, they're all very comparable. The Hawks have the best WR2 and WR3, by a pretty significant distance. NOLA has the worst WR2, but the best WR1. I ended up with this order though I could probably be persuaded any particular way except putting the Second Line below the Hahalua.
There is one other note, in the Week 10 tear down the team trades, the Hawks sent away their WR1, and unlike the QB situation, did not replace them. At that point the Hawks are by far the worst team on this list.
Tight Ends:
S27 Hawks: TE1 (1091 TPE)
S38 Hahalua: TE1 (396 TPE)
S42 Second Line: TE1 (314 TPE, currently 250 effective)
S27 Hawks post Week 10: (219 effective TPE) (IA)
The Hawks practically lap the other two until the trade, that's really all I can say here, there's not a lot of analysis, or seemingly worth, in this position.
Offensive Line:
S27 Hawks: OL1 (587 TPE)
S27 Hawks post Week 10: No OL Rostered
S38 Hahalua: OL1 (275 TPE) (IA)
S42 Second Line: OL1 (106 TPE)
Perhaps it's unsurprising that the OLine, a unit the entire rest of the offense is built upon, was terrible for all 3 of these teams, with only the Hawks having a single member of the line that would grade out as better than the average bot. The Second Line in particular could probably pick up a decently earning S43 OLine prospect who would have earned more TPE than their actual OL1. I think 106 might be the lowest TPE I've ever seen on a roster, not sure, but it's definitely down there. I think there's actually a decent argument that the Hawks with no Oline on the roster and a line full of bots was actually better than having the Hahalua's lone IA player. And there's actually not an argument in favor of the Second Line here.
Overall, in terms of offense, the Hawks are by far the best. The only position where they aren't clearly the best is Wide Receiver, they have significant leads compared to the other two at Offensive Line, Tight End, and most importantly QB. I think I'd give the Second Line the edge over the Hahalua as well; while the Second Line were worse than the Hahalua at more positions than the other way around, the Hahalua being so bad at QB gives them too big of a hurdle. The Hahalua were a team that I personally do not understand how their passing game worked so well when looking back at the S38 season on the index, while the Second Line might not be the worst passing offense in the league as a preseason prediction, which is something I assume nobody would have made for a Hahalua team with a peak receiver below 850 TPE and a QB nearly 300 TPE below that WR1.
Post the trade, I think the Hawks might have the worst offense, but there's not a significant distance between them and the Hahalua there; their QB was still nearly 400 TPE better, the difference in lines was nonexistent, and they still had a better running game. On second thought, nah, the Hahalua are still at the bottom even post the week 10 trades, the only significant advantage the Hahalua have is at the WR position and QB matters more.
Defensive Tackles:
S27 Hawks: DT1 (547 TPE) (IA)
S38 Hahalua: DT1 (54 TPE)
S42 Second Line: No DT Rostered
I cannot tell what is more hilarious, that the 106 TPE "Maybe the lowest I've ever seen on a roster" lasted for one position, or that neither he nor this guy with 54 TPE, one activity check and one week prediction, were technically inactive, even if this guy never updated again. Or I could go with the 3rd option, that the 54 TPE player made for a technically better Defensive Tackle than the Second Line's complete lack of one. Spoiler warning, but it's not even made up for by the Defensive Ends, either; the Second Line only roster 2 leaving them with a blank, or more likely a player played out of position, on a 3 person front. I assume that's what they're going for considering otherwise they'd have 2 players out of position on a 4 player front. To be just as fair, or rather to bash on the bad position for as much as it deserves, the Hahalua with only 2 DEs were ALSO forced to play this 54 TPE player on their line in a 3 person front. Speaking of DEs...
Defensive Ends:
S27 Hawks: DE1 (712 TPE), DE2 (535 TPE), DE3 (326 TPE)
S42 Second Line: DE1 (503 TPE), DE2 (322 TPE, currently 250 effective) (IA)
S38 Hahalua: DE1 (372 TPE) (IA), DE2 (250 effective TPE) (IA)
I probably said, or at the very least thought, a few negative things about the S27 Hawks' DE situation, and future events would make this line even worse in retrospect (DE2 stopped earning completely, DE1 was only a couple seasons away from regression, and DE3...was Zamir's multi). And yet compared to EITHER of the lines that I'm covering, that line smells of sunshine and roses. I think the Second Line end up in a better spot overall compared to the Hahalua? Playing their CB4 out of position might even get better results than the 54 TPE player that was the anchor of the Hahalua's line, and the Second Line's DE1 is pretty significantly better than the Hahalua's, and is also active with the possibility of improvement. That's really the judgement of both the DE position and the DLine as a whole among these 3 teams. This also wasn't even changed by the trade midseason. For the entirety of the season, the Hawks had 3 players on the line who were better than the Second Line's DE1, the only player even close to matching them from a different team.
Linebackers:
S42 Second Line: LB1 (943 TPE post regression), LB2 (645 effective TPE) (IA), LB3 (393 TPE), LB4 (266 TPE)
S27 Hawks: LB1 (478 TPE), LB2 (454 TPE), LB3 (354 TPE), LB4 (329 TPE)
S38 Hahalua: LB1 (338 TPE) (IA), LB2 (242 TPE), LB3 (170 effective TPE) (IA)
This is the first position that we've looked at where a team that wasn't the S27 Hawks had a significant advantage compared to the other two teams, and it's also the second time I'd give the Second Line the "best overall" title. This linebacking corps isn't exactly fierce, but the Hawks have less TPE from their first 2 players than the Second Line have from their top LB, the Second Line's 2nd LB is also significantly above the Hawks, and the 3rd LB is better than anyone on a different team past the top 2 of the Hawks. The LB4...OK, sucks, but is still better than the Hahalua's LB2 or LB3. Speaking of the Hahalua, that is a profoundly awful group of 3, and you could probably run the ball down this team's throats all day. When considering the LB3's TPE is actually miniscule due to having a ton banked and never unbanking, the Hahalua managed to have an AVERAGE of 250 TPE per player on their LB corps to start the season. At least one of them was still updating?
Cornerbacks:
S27 Hawks: CB1 (1048 TPE) (IA), CB2 (783 TPE), CB3 (395 TPE)
S42 Second Line: CB1 (627 TPE post regression), CB2 (522 TPE), CB3 (320 TPE), CB4 (281 TPE)
S38 Hahalua: CB1 (664 TPE) (IA), CB2 (435 TPE), CB3 (208 TPE) (IA)
One could argue that the Hahalua should go above the Second Line due to a marginally better CB1. They'd be very wrong to do so, but they're welcome to go ahead and try. But that's the only question here; the Hawks have the top 2 CBs here and have a better 3rd CB than anyone else, the Hahalua's CB2 was nearly 100 below the Second Line's, and their IA CB3 was over 100 below the Second Line's. 37 TPE more than the Second Line for their CB1 doesn't really matter, especially when the Second Line's CB1 is still active and updating.
Safeties:
S27 Hawks: S1 (658 TPE), S2 (619 TPE)
S27 Hawks post Week 10: S1 (658 TPE), S2 (527 TPE)
S42 Second Line: S1 (415 TPE), S2 (237 TPE)
S38 Hahalua: S1 (250 effective TPE), S2 (249 effective TPE)
I was actually quite surprised with the outcome of this. Sure, the Hawks being on top again and the Hahalua being last isn't surprising, it's been the same rating for a majority of these positions. No, the real surprise was that the Hawks...weren't as torn down by the midseason trades as I thought they were, at least compared to these two teams. Sure, their TE went from well above the other two to between the Hahalua and the Second Line, sure, their QB went from great to "Bad but still above these two by a lot", sure their OL went from 1 good player to 0. But here, at the safety position, it really wasn't that big of a downgrade by TPE. The guy they traded for was also active and earning. And either way, whichever period of time you're talking about, the Hawks had 2 Safeties better than anyone the Second Line or Hahalua had. The debate between NOLA and Honolulu here should also be nonexistent.
When talking about the defense as a whole, the Hawks had the best and the Hahalua had the worst. The D Lines in particular for both the Second Line and the Hahalua are profoundly awful, and the linebacking group for the Hahalua does that line absolutely no favors, especially compared to the actually OK Second Line's linebackers. And the Hawks had a significantly better secondary than either of them as well, even post the trade.
Kicker/Punter:
S42 Second Line: K/P (937 TPE)
S27 Hawks: K/P (421 TPE) (IA)
S38 Hahalua: K/P (110 effective TPE) (IA)
Finally, the Second Line have the kicking advantage for sure between these 3 teams. The Hawks had a decent, effective kicker, while the Hahalua had a godawful one.
I talk a lot of shit about the S27 Hawks' performance on the field. I also decried the S38 Hahalua, but nowhere near as badly. In terms of play, there's not a question which was the worse team between the two. The Hawks scored over 6 less points per game, and allowed 4 more. Even if I just restricted it to the first 10 games of the season, they still scored only 15.5 per game and gave up 36.9 points per game; that'd still be the second worst defense for a winless team, though it'd be the best offense outside of the later Hahalua. In those first 10 games, the Hawks were somewhere around the 3rd or 4th least bad winless team out of the 6 we have currently; definitely better than both Yeti seasons and definitely worse than the S16 Copperheads or the S38 Hahalua.
I still believe that the Hawks were the second worst team ever in terms of product; even without the trade, the first 10 games contained the 3 games that people might have thought the Hawks could win. But in terms of TPE, the Hawks were far more unlucky that I realized. Or maybe the Hahalua were just much more lucky while still going winless. I think it's both; as said above, even if you are a profoundly awful team it still takes a lot of bad luck to go winless, though even with that said it boggles the mind that the Hahalua had a middle of the pack passing offense with a QB starting the season at 523 TPE.
When comparing teams straight up, there's no denying that the New Orleans Second Line has a better team than the Hahalua. The only 4 positions where the Hahalua have an advantage are OLine, RB, DT, and TE. Only the Oline and RB spots have a gap that's significant in the slightest, and while that's not a good thing, that's certainly miles better than being far worse in the secondary, at quarterback, and the Hahalua managed to have a worse DLine despite rostering one more player on it, even. If I compare the Second Line to the Hahalua, they look like a team that's definitely not going to be going winless, as they're significantly better than the team I think is the second best winless team.
Of course, there's the other side of the comparison. If I compared the Second Line to the Hawks at the start of the season, then the Second Line manage to look worse than the team that finished up as the 2nd worst team ever. Even if I took them after the midseason trade, the Second Line on D have a significantly better LB group, at the cost of being significantly worse than the Hawks on the DLine and among Defensive Backs. I am out here, comparing the Second Line's defense to the second worst defense of all time and the worst among winless teams, and the Second Line are coming up SHORT. Of course, if I compared the Hawks to the Hahalua, it'd look even more stark and that team managed to be significantly better on Defense.
Both the S27 Hawks and the S42 Second Line are better than the Hahalua were as things currently stand, even after the week 10 trades for the Hawks. Before the trades, the Hawks were definitely better than the Second Line, and after it's up in the air in my mind; the Second Line's offense was better due mainly to their Wide Receivers being worth literally anything, while the Hawks' defense was better because the only place it was worse was at Linebacker even after the trade. I think I'm leaning towards the Hawks having a better team overall, but I definitely could be persuaded otherwise.
All in all, the Hawks and the Hahalua show what bad and good luck can do to a bad squad, while still each managing to go 0-16. This Second Line team can certainly follow in their footsteps, but it'll take some bad luck to get there no matter what. Or finding someone to bite on a trade for Mobi and Poop Eater, that'd probably do it as well.