06-25-2023, 11:43 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-05-2023, 12:50 PM by Jacky. Edited 1 time in total.)
We are BACK! For yet another season of sportsbook betting. For those just joining us, back in season 40, I started an ISFL weekly article that attempts to predict the sportsbook prop bets. I’ve been learning a lot while doing them and have enjoyed the additional articles by @Ultimatedestroye and @Chicken Lips. They’ve been amazing to read and watch them learn, as well.
I was on vacation during last weeks sportsbook, so I wasn’t able to get an article up for the 1 week that was actually posted. I also did not do a proper recap article of season 41, so I’ll give that a quick analysis before getting into the week 8 props. In season 40, I had 34 bets correct and 26 bets incorrect, for a 57% hit rate. In season 41, I had 30 bets correct and 23 bets incorrect, for a 57% hit rate. So I obviously did not gain any additional abilities to get an advantage. Let’s take a look at the whole season of bets:
Good news, though! While each season I had about a 57% hit rate, the bets I was more confident in, marked by an X for my parlay, I ended up hitting 19 of the 28 bets, which is about 67%. So I seem to have a decent feel on more sure bets but overall I’m still just above a coinflip. So with that, let’s get started on my first Season 42 props bet article. I’ve slightly changed up my table. I’ve marked if I included the bet in my parlay and then a confidence level, where I’ll give a 1-5 and will be betting 1 million for each level of confidence. I found that system worked well last season so I’ll keep running with it.
Preston Beatz (Bal) – o/u 2.5 Passing TDs: Everyone’s favorite fantasy quarterback, Beatz is still up to his old tricks. While slightly slowing down the total pass attempts (4th in the league so far this season), the efficiency is still there as he leads the league in TD passes. In the battle of the top 2 teams in the league, Arizona will look to slow down Beatz and make Baltimore win on the ground. Arizona boasts the top defense in the league in terms of points, only allowing 16.7 points per game. I can see Baltimore getting 3 touchdowns, but likely one of those will be with Pyxis on the ground, so I’m taking the under on this one.
Danny Nedelko (Ari) – o/u 26.5 Carries: Speaking of favorite fantasy players, Nedelko is carrying fantasy teams this season. He is averaging 28.6 carries per game so far. The lowest amount of attempts for Danny this season is 21, with the next 2 lowest at 26 each. Baltimores pass defense is much better (1st in the league) than their run defense (8th in the league). So with that, I think it’s an easy over on carries and I’ll be including this in my parlay.
Ttollem Mada (Ber) – o/u 77.5 Receiving Yards: Mada is averaging 80.6 yards receiving per game, highest of their career. Does he keep that up? In week 8, they go against New York, who is 2nd in the league for least amount of passing yards allowed per game. Only 3 players have gotten over 77 yards against New York this season. Berlin seems to have to many weapons on offense that I don’t think Mada gets the over, and I feel ok about this prediction, so I’m rating it a 3 on the under.
Alfonso Dos Santos (Nola) - 6.5 Punts: Dos Santos is leading the league in punts this season due to the rebuild going on in New Orleans. But it is currently less than 6 punts per game. However, Sarasota is known to have a top tier defense, although it isn’t quite as dominant as usual. No team has attempted more than 6 punts against Sarasota this season, so I’m pretty confident that Dos Santos won’t hit the over on this one. I’ll be including it in my parlay.
Donatello McTurtle (NYS) - 0.5 Sacks Allowed: So far, McTurtle has given up 3 sacks in 7 games. I hate this type of prop because it is all up to how the sim recognizes the spacing for who gives up a sack. Berlin, New Yorks opponent, is about slightly above average in sacks. Their DT, Meagher, has only 1 sack on the season. Since McTurtle plays guard, it’s hard to envision who will get the sacks inevitably given up this game. I’m taking the under but don’t feel confident about this one.
Brooks Piggott (SJS) - 1.5 Pass Deflections: Piggott is averaging 2 deflections per game (4th in the league). San Jose is going against the Yeeti, who have a low-level TPE quarterback in rookie McDummy. Colorado is averaging the 2nd most attempts per game. I’m a simple man when it comes to the these types of bets. It’s basically a coinflip so with the averages pointing in the right direction, I’ll take the over on this one with a fairly good confidence level.
Hopefully my new confidence level will help with some of your bets. Again, don’t blame me for your losses. Do you due diligence and know that no one really knows what the hell they’re doing. So let’s be happy that the sportsbook was actually given at a decent time prior to the stream to give us time to analyze these. I’m going to keep doing these as long as I can and hopefully we can all win some money together!
I was on vacation during last weeks sportsbook, so I wasn’t able to get an article up for the 1 week that was actually posted. I also did not do a proper recap article of season 41, so I’ll give that a quick analysis before getting into the week 8 props. In season 40, I had 34 bets correct and 26 bets incorrect, for a 57% hit rate. In season 41, I had 30 bets correct and 23 bets incorrect, for a 57% hit rate. So I obviously did not gain any additional abilities to get an advantage. Let’s take a look at the whole season of bets:
Good news, though! While each season I had about a 57% hit rate, the bets I was more confident in, marked by an X for my parlay, I ended up hitting 19 of the 28 bets, which is about 67%. So I seem to have a decent feel on more sure bets but overall I’m still just above a coinflip. So with that, let’s get started on my first Season 42 props bet article. I’ve slightly changed up my table. I’ve marked if I included the bet in my parlay and then a confidence level, where I’ll give a 1-5 and will be betting 1 million for each level of confidence. I found that system worked well last season so I’ll keep running with it.
Preston Beatz (Bal) – o/u 2.5 Passing TDs: Everyone’s favorite fantasy quarterback, Beatz is still up to his old tricks. While slightly slowing down the total pass attempts (4th in the league so far this season), the efficiency is still there as he leads the league in TD passes. In the battle of the top 2 teams in the league, Arizona will look to slow down Beatz and make Baltimore win on the ground. Arizona boasts the top defense in the league in terms of points, only allowing 16.7 points per game. I can see Baltimore getting 3 touchdowns, but likely one of those will be with Pyxis on the ground, so I’m taking the under on this one.
Danny Nedelko (Ari) – o/u 26.5 Carries: Speaking of favorite fantasy players, Nedelko is carrying fantasy teams this season. He is averaging 28.6 carries per game so far. The lowest amount of attempts for Danny this season is 21, with the next 2 lowest at 26 each. Baltimores pass defense is much better (1st in the league) than their run defense (8th in the league). So with that, I think it’s an easy over on carries and I’ll be including this in my parlay.
Ttollem Mada (Ber) – o/u 77.5 Receiving Yards: Mada is averaging 80.6 yards receiving per game, highest of their career. Does he keep that up? In week 8, they go against New York, who is 2nd in the league for least amount of passing yards allowed per game. Only 3 players have gotten over 77 yards against New York this season. Berlin seems to have to many weapons on offense that I don’t think Mada gets the over, and I feel ok about this prediction, so I’m rating it a 3 on the under.
Alfonso Dos Santos (Nola) - 6.5 Punts: Dos Santos is leading the league in punts this season due to the rebuild going on in New Orleans. But it is currently less than 6 punts per game. However, Sarasota is known to have a top tier defense, although it isn’t quite as dominant as usual. No team has attempted more than 6 punts against Sarasota this season, so I’m pretty confident that Dos Santos won’t hit the over on this one. I’ll be including it in my parlay.
Donatello McTurtle (NYS) - 0.5 Sacks Allowed: So far, McTurtle has given up 3 sacks in 7 games. I hate this type of prop because it is all up to how the sim recognizes the spacing for who gives up a sack. Berlin, New Yorks opponent, is about slightly above average in sacks. Their DT, Meagher, has only 1 sack on the season. Since McTurtle plays guard, it’s hard to envision who will get the sacks inevitably given up this game. I’m taking the under but don’t feel confident about this one.
Brooks Piggott (SJS) - 1.5 Pass Deflections: Piggott is averaging 2 deflections per game (4th in the league). San Jose is going against the Yeeti, who have a low-level TPE quarterback in rookie McDummy. Colorado is averaging the 2nd most attempts per game. I’m a simple man when it comes to the these types of bets. It’s basically a coinflip so with the averages pointing in the right direction, I’ll take the over on this one with a fairly good confidence level.
Hopefully my new confidence level will help with some of your bets. Again, don’t blame me for your losses. Do you due diligence and know that no one really knows what the hell they’re doing. So let’s be happy that the sportsbook was actually given at a decent time prior to the stream to give us time to analyze these. I’m going to keep doing these as long as I can and hopefully we can all win some money together!
"...and has what is honestly the most bizarre attachment to ISFL fantasy football and user bets..." - aeonsjenni