07-07-2023, 12:02 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-09-2023, 05:28 PM by xenosthelegend. Edited 1 time in total.)
Phew, I was starting to get a bit worried there. However, knowing I took less than 30 minutes to do my analysis for week 12 and got 5/7 is a bit concerning. Am I using my time effectively if I can get good results without doing a deep dive? I don’t know the answer to that and I don’t like change so I’m going to keep doing what I’m doing, for better or for worse. The sportsbook season is winding down so I’ll be curious when I do my season recap (I’ll actually do it this time, I swear!) how I did on the year and how my confidence levels showed out. So let’s take a quick recap of week 12!
Preston Beatz (BAL) – over 280.5 Passing Yards; Well, it was a shoot out for Baltimore at the beginning, so I was worried that they’d lean on the run more once they got to a large lead late in the game, but they kept tossing it enough for Beatz to hit the over. And if you had him in fantasy, you were happy to see Beatz even got a rushing touchdown in this game!
Austin Morley (CHI) – under 6.5 Catches; Oof. I wasn’t confident in Morley getting 7 catches but thought it’d be at least close. But 3!? I did not see that coming, and based off the bets on the casino sheet, neither did anyone else. Chicago did attempt 42 passes so I was right in that they’d need to pass more, and Morley got 11 targets, but just couldn’t reel them in as Berlin had a bunch of pass deflections. At least I wasn’t the only one that thought the over would hit but I’m thankful I didn’t bet a ton on this one.
Kairo Knight (CTC) – under 49.5 Receiving Yards; This was another one that people probably got baited on by the low number. 50 yards doesn’t seem like a lot, and it isn’t, but Knight must be used in the wr3 (and maybe tight end, even) spot, as indicated by the low average per catch. I wasn’t very confident in this one but the process seemed to work out how I thought it might with Prince being 1st in targets. I’ll take the win, no matter how small of a bet it is.
John Stark VIII (OCO) – over 5.5 Tackles; All these fuckers jealous of our success that cord kid should really stfu and actually learn how to win an Ultimini; imagine having a stacked team of ia players and still being a shit tier GM.
Quendyn Quarterstorm (HON) – under 1.5 Pass Deflections; The only person to get 2 or more pass deflections this game is that little bitch @”icebear32”. WINters even threw the ball way more than he should this game and Hon couldn’t get it done defensively. The 6 tackles meant they must have been catching the ball against him, so I’m a bit surprised that he only had 1 pass deflection.
Inspector Gadget (AUS) – under 4.5 Tackles; It actually took me a while to find Gadget on the stat sheet as he was so far down the list with only 2 tackles. I should have had more confidence in my bet on this one but I thought Austin would put up a bigger fight so New York would need to pass more than the 34 times they did. Just a down day for Gadget but it won me money so I’ll take it!
Dusty Wilson (YKW) – o/u 6.5 Pancakes; Should have went with a higher confidence level as my thought process was accurate. Wilson led the Wraiths in pancakes and ended up with 8, so San Jose continues their streak of allowing lineman to get 7 or more each game. But again, I’ll take the win and the cash money.
Alright, we did it! We made money again! That was a fun twist to have a captains theme. It doesn’t appear to be a theme this week, at least not one that I can tell. But I am also dumb so there probably is. Let’s get looking at the week 13 props as we head down the home stretch!
Painted Penguin (CHI) – o/u 276.5 Passing Yards; Painted is actually 2nd in the league in passing yards this season, which would help explain why Morley is doing so well. Currently averaging 288.3 yards per game, Chicago does a lot of playing from behind to pad those stats, which is good for a prop like this. They get Cape Town at home this week, where there is a slight Ultimus hangover going on. Their pass defense is allowing 269.5 passing yards per game, good for 10th in the league. So this bodes well for the game script of this game as Chicago will likely need to pass and should be able to do so semi effectively. With the likely game script playing out, I’m taking the over on this one at a confidence level of 4.
Orange County - o/u 114.5 Rushing Yards; OCO is middle of the road when it comes to rush attempts per game but is tops in the league in average yards per carry at 4.9 behind Diarra and One. Last time they faced Honolulu, they ended up with 109 rushing yards. However, Honolulu has been allowing an average of 121.9 rushing yards allowed per game, so we’re going to have to guess if Orange County can split that difference. They have technically only gotten 115 or more in 3 games this season. I think this one will be close but I’m taking the under with a confidence level of 2.
Erwin Kemp (COL) – o/u 4.5 Receptions; 17 > 10 > 7 > 5. Those are the target numbers by game for Kemp since joining Colorado. Less targets means less opportunities to hit the over, obviously. Not a great trend but I don’t think we really can learn anything from it, to be honest. Going against Arizona this week will be the challenging part. Arizona likes to run and will do what they can to milk the clock, limiting the amount of passing opportunities for Colorado. However, it should be a positive game script for the passing offense so we do like to see that. But so was Baltimore, which had the lowest target total for Kemp in Colorado. That being said, Arizona has allowed multiple pass catchers to get 5 or more catches in a majority of their games, so I’m taking the over here at a confidence level of 3.
Howard Coward (AUS) – o/u 99.5 Scrimmage Yards; Well this is an interesting line. Coward is averaging 58.3 rush yards per game plus 11.7 receiving yards per game. If my math is correct (please don’t check), that puts him at an average of 70 scrimmage yards per game. Which is well below the 100 needed to hit the over. HERE’S A BIG HOWEVER, they go against New Orleans tonight. And if you read my last article, you’ll see that betting the over against any prop that goes against New Orleans is probably the right move. This may be one of the times where you don’t, though. The ONLY bummer is that Coward is still splitting carries with Jeff Newman. Even in their 40-10 win over New Orleans previously, Coward had 50 yards rushing (and 17 yards receiving) while Newman had 56 yards rushing (plus 1 catch for 7 yards). I think this one will blow up in my face, but I’m taking the under at a confidence level of 5.
Dane Johnson Jr (SAR) – o/u 7.5 Pancakes; Dane is leading the league in pancakes at 110, which is only 1 of 3 players above 100 this season (and one is a bot). Going against an aging defense in Yellowknife, at home, I’m liking the over on this one. Last time these two teams faced off, Johnson did get 8 pancakes so I’m expecting something similar here. With the high number though, my confidence level is around a 3 to hit the over.
Fat Jack (NYS) – o/u 3.5 Tackles; Averaging just over 3 tackles per game this season, this one will definitely be a coinflip. Since Jack is a defensive tackle, we’ll likely want to look for game script leading to the other team running more. Unfortunately, New York plays San Jose this week and they definitely prefer to pass the ball with Farrell. For that simple reason, on a coinflip prop like this, I’m taking the under at a confidence level of 2.
Jake Williams (BAL) – o/u 1.5 Pass Deflections; Having a decent year and leading his team in pass deflections, Williams is helping Baltimore to the top spot in their conference. Likely seeing Berlin’s number 2 pass option, this will come down to how many opportunities that will come to. Berlin only passed 34 times in their last meeting on their way to a victory, but does the home field advantage play out in Berlin’s favor this game? I think it will flip the script and make Berlin pass more as they try to catch up, giving enough opportunities to hit the over. This will be lowest confidence level at 1, though.
So that’ll do it! I’m going big on my parlay this time since I hit one last week and feel lucky again, so I’m doing a 3 leg. I’m not super confident about it but it’s only an extra million and these 2x media articles will surely make up for that lost income but it’ll be a major boost if it hits. So I hope you all enjoy the games tonight and have a great weekend! I don’t think I’ll be able to get an article out on Monday as I’ll be coming back from a short weekend trip, so good luck with those bets too!
Preston Beatz (BAL) – over 280.5 Passing Yards; Well, it was a shoot out for Baltimore at the beginning, so I was worried that they’d lean on the run more once they got to a large lead late in the game, but they kept tossing it enough for Beatz to hit the over. And if you had him in fantasy, you were happy to see Beatz even got a rushing touchdown in this game!
Austin Morley (CHI) – under 6.5 Catches; Oof. I wasn’t confident in Morley getting 7 catches but thought it’d be at least close. But 3!? I did not see that coming, and based off the bets on the casino sheet, neither did anyone else. Chicago did attempt 42 passes so I was right in that they’d need to pass more, and Morley got 11 targets, but just couldn’t reel them in as Berlin had a bunch of pass deflections. At least I wasn’t the only one that thought the over would hit but I’m thankful I didn’t bet a ton on this one.
Kairo Knight (CTC) – under 49.5 Receiving Yards; This was another one that people probably got baited on by the low number. 50 yards doesn’t seem like a lot, and it isn’t, but Knight must be used in the wr3 (and maybe tight end, even) spot, as indicated by the low average per catch. I wasn’t very confident in this one but the process seemed to work out how I thought it might with Prince being 1st in targets. I’ll take the win, no matter how small of a bet it is.
John Stark VIII (OCO) – over 5.5 Tackles; All these fuckers jealous of our success that cord kid should really stfu and actually learn how to win an Ultimini; imagine having a stacked team of ia players and still being a shit tier GM.
Quendyn Quarterstorm (HON) – under 1.5 Pass Deflections; The only person to get 2 or more pass deflections this game is that little bitch @”icebear32”. WINters even threw the ball way more than he should this game and Hon couldn’t get it done defensively. The 6 tackles meant they must have been catching the ball against him, so I’m a bit surprised that he only had 1 pass deflection.
Inspector Gadget (AUS) – under 4.5 Tackles; It actually took me a while to find Gadget on the stat sheet as he was so far down the list with only 2 tackles. I should have had more confidence in my bet on this one but I thought Austin would put up a bigger fight so New York would need to pass more than the 34 times they did. Just a down day for Gadget but it won me money so I’ll take it!
Dusty Wilson (YKW) – o/u 6.5 Pancakes; Should have went with a higher confidence level as my thought process was accurate. Wilson led the Wraiths in pancakes and ended up with 8, so San Jose continues their streak of allowing lineman to get 7 or more each game. But again, I’ll take the win and the cash money.
Alright, we did it! We made money again! That was a fun twist to have a captains theme. It doesn’t appear to be a theme this week, at least not one that I can tell. But I am also dumb so there probably is. Let’s get looking at the week 13 props as we head down the home stretch!
Painted Penguin (CHI) – o/u 276.5 Passing Yards; Painted is actually 2nd in the league in passing yards this season, which would help explain why Morley is doing so well. Currently averaging 288.3 yards per game, Chicago does a lot of playing from behind to pad those stats, which is good for a prop like this. They get Cape Town at home this week, where there is a slight Ultimus hangover going on. Their pass defense is allowing 269.5 passing yards per game, good for 10th in the league. So this bodes well for the game script of this game as Chicago will likely need to pass and should be able to do so semi effectively. With the likely game script playing out, I’m taking the over on this one at a confidence level of 4.
Orange County - o/u 114.5 Rushing Yards; OCO is middle of the road when it comes to rush attempts per game but is tops in the league in average yards per carry at 4.9 behind Diarra and One. Last time they faced Honolulu, they ended up with 109 rushing yards. However, Honolulu has been allowing an average of 121.9 rushing yards allowed per game, so we’re going to have to guess if Orange County can split that difference. They have technically only gotten 115 or more in 3 games this season. I think this one will be close but I’m taking the under with a confidence level of 2.
Erwin Kemp (COL) – o/u 4.5 Receptions; 17 > 10 > 7 > 5. Those are the target numbers by game for Kemp since joining Colorado. Less targets means less opportunities to hit the over, obviously. Not a great trend but I don’t think we really can learn anything from it, to be honest. Going against Arizona this week will be the challenging part. Arizona likes to run and will do what they can to milk the clock, limiting the amount of passing opportunities for Colorado. However, it should be a positive game script for the passing offense so we do like to see that. But so was Baltimore, which had the lowest target total for Kemp in Colorado. That being said, Arizona has allowed multiple pass catchers to get 5 or more catches in a majority of their games, so I’m taking the over here at a confidence level of 3.
Howard Coward (AUS) – o/u 99.5 Scrimmage Yards; Well this is an interesting line. Coward is averaging 58.3 rush yards per game plus 11.7 receiving yards per game. If my math is correct (please don’t check), that puts him at an average of 70 scrimmage yards per game. Which is well below the 100 needed to hit the over. HERE’S A BIG HOWEVER, they go against New Orleans tonight. And if you read my last article, you’ll see that betting the over against any prop that goes against New Orleans is probably the right move. This may be one of the times where you don’t, though. The ONLY bummer is that Coward is still splitting carries with Jeff Newman. Even in their 40-10 win over New Orleans previously, Coward had 50 yards rushing (and 17 yards receiving) while Newman had 56 yards rushing (plus 1 catch for 7 yards). I think this one will blow up in my face, but I’m taking the under at a confidence level of 5.
Dane Johnson Jr (SAR) – o/u 7.5 Pancakes; Dane is leading the league in pancakes at 110, which is only 1 of 3 players above 100 this season (and one is a bot). Going against an aging defense in Yellowknife, at home, I’m liking the over on this one. Last time these two teams faced off, Johnson did get 8 pancakes so I’m expecting something similar here. With the high number though, my confidence level is around a 3 to hit the over.
Fat Jack (NYS) – o/u 3.5 Tackles; Averaging just over 3 tackles per game this season, this one will definitely be a coinflip. Since Jack is a defensive tackle, we’ll likely want to look for game script leading to the other team running more. Unfortunately, New York plays San Jose this week and they definitely prefer to pass the ball with Farrell. For that simple reason, on a coinflip prop like this, I’m taking the under at a confidence level of 2.
Jake Williams (BAL) – o/u 1.5 Pass Deflections; Having a decent year and leading his team in pass deflections, Williams is helping Baltimore to the top spot in their conference. Likely seeing Berlin’s number 2 pass option, this will come down to how many opportunities that will come to. Berlin only passed 34 times in their last meeting on their way to a victory, but does the home field advantage play out in Berlin’s favor this game? I think it will flip the script and make Berlin pass more as they try to catch up, giving enough opportunities to hit the over. This will be lowest confidence level at 1, though.
So that’ll do it! I’m going big on my parlay this time since I hit one last week and feel lucky again, so I’m doing a 3 leg. I’m not super confident about it but it’s only an extra million and these 2x media articles will surely make up for that lost income but it’ll be a major boost if it hits. So I hope you all enjoy the games tonight and have a great weekend! I don’t think I’ll be able to get an article out on Monday as I’ll be coming back from a short weekend trip, so good luck with those bets too!
"...and has what is honestly the most bizarre attachment to ISFL fantasy football and user bets..." - aeonsjenni