07-11-2023, 11:42 AM
(This post was last modified: 07-17-2023, 02:43 PM by Jacky. Edited 1 time in total.)
With only 2 weeks left in the season, some teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, one has punched its ticket, and some have fallen flat on their face. Let's go over the teams in the hunt and see what they need to do in order to guarantee or solidify their spots.
Starting with the easy one, Arizona clinched its playoff berth this week with a win over the Otters and the Silverbacks losing to the Crash. There is a pileup of three 9-5 teams, a record that is able to tie the Outlaws with the proper results over the next 2 weeks, however either the Silverbacks or the Hahalua are guaranteed to keep the other from reaching an 11-5 record during their Week 16 matchup. Even if they tied, taht would just mean that they both would have a worse record. Arizona's wins over the Yeti and Otters over the last couple of weeks, along with losses by all 3 of their closest rivals, have meant that they have a large number of paths to the 1 seed, or at least getting a tiebreaker.
ARI guarantees a 1 seed with:
Win over AUS OR NOLA over NYS + SJS over HON
ARI guarantees Home Field Advantage with
Win over AUS OR NYS, HON losses + YKW over BAL
Note that all of these apply only to week 15, week 16 will have a different set of games but the same idea applies; Arizona will win a tiebreaker over Austin due to conference record, and will at least go into a tiebreak for the 1 seed if Honolulu loses a game.
Colorado is the other side of the equation, a team that is technically in the playoff hunt, but only by the skin of its teeth. With a best record of 8-8, they'd need a very specific set of results to make it, but it's still possible, and they actually have a few different ways to do it outright. That being said, they will have absolutely no shot if they cannot beat the Crash in Colorado. This would be an absolutely wild season for the Yeti to break one of the longest running playoff droughts in league history.
COL is eliminated with:
Loss to CTC OR YKW over BAL
IF COL survives, then
COL gets 3rd seed with:
Win over YKW AND 1 SAR loss AND BER over CTC
Every other team is a lot more complex, so let's start with the team that screwed up their playoff push the hardest.
Two games ago I said Sarasota should be fighting for the 1 seed in Week 16 because they had an extremely easy end to their schedule, despite not exactly being an impressive team. The Sailfish have since dropped games to both the Wraiths and the Yeti, and gone from the 2nd seed in the conference to the 5th seed. They still have a path, but it's gone from a cakewalk to a tightrope, one that could see them eliminated in Week 15.
SAR is Eliminated with:
Loss to CHI + any two of YKW over BAL, BER over OCO, and CTC over COL
I thought Yellowknife was dead and buried after losing 5 of their last 6 and trading away one of their star RB duo, but the Wraiths showed they still have some life in those undead bones by winning back to back away games over the Sailfish and Fire Salamanders. They are now only a game out of the 3rd and 2nd seed, and still have a path to the 1 seed. Still, with a 7-7 record, a loss and other results could eliminate them in Week 16 just as much as the Sailfish, though if they win they'd guarantee a win in any tiebreaker not involving just the Crash. They could even have a chance in a 3 way between them, the Crash, and the Sailfish.
YKW is Eliminated with:
Loss to BAL AND BER over OCO + CHI over SAR OR CTC over COL
After beating the Hawks in week 13, the Fire Salamanders took over the 1st seed, but squandered that by losing to the Wraiths at home, falling all the way to 3rd. As such, they need a lot in order to guarantee the playoffs in Week 15, mainly due to flat out losing head to head tiebreakers with both the Crash and the Wraiths, and possibly losing to the Sailfish via conference record.
BER clinches Playoffs with:
Win over OCO AND BAL over YKW AND CHI over SAR
The Crash were not perfect over the last 2 weeks, losing to the Butchers, but by beating the Silverbacks they put themselves back at the 2nd seed. They control their own destiny, and even only need one other result to go their way as long as they win to clinch the playoffs in Week 15.
CTC clinches Playoffs with:
Win over COL AND CHI over SAR
The Hawks are the 1 seed in the NSFC, albeit in a much more precarious spot than the Outlaws: they only have a 1 game lead on 2 teams, the Fire Salamanders hold the tiebreaker and the Crash tie them so they cannot clinch that 1 seed in Week 15 without a lot of help, and they technically are still able to miss the playoffs entirely. Their loss to Berlin 2 weeks ago put them in this spot, though other losses meant they retook the one seed with their win over Chicago last week. They do, however, control their own destiny and don't need much help to secure a playoff berth even if they do fall flat on their face. In order to clinch in Week 15, however, half the week's games would need to go their way not counting their own.
BAL clinches Playoffs with:
Win over YKW OR Loss + COL over CTC, CHI over SAR, OCO over BER
The ASFC is much simpler; there are 3 teams after 2 spots with no long shots or people who can completely fall off. The Silverbacks beat the Sabercats but lost to the Crash in the last couple of weeks, meaning they will have the conference record tiebreaker over the Copperheads no matter what happens. They will be unable to beat the Hahalua on Conference tiebreaker, and in a 3 way tie where they lose Week 16 they will be the odd man out, meaning that as far as I can tell this technically 4th seed can clinch the playoffs in Week 15, and cannot be eliminated no matter the way results shake up.
NYS clinches Playoffs with:
Win over NOLA AND HON over SJS AND ARI over AUS
The Copperheads, meanwhile, beat the Second Line and lost to the Hahalua over the last couple weeks; they are the odd man out in a Conference tiebreaker situation, meaning that the only tiebreak that they can survive is one between all three of New York, Honolulu, and themselves that specifically has New York losing to the Hahalua in Week 16. In that case New York would be out via a worse head to head record. That is assuming Wolverine Studios fixed their absolutely dumb tiebreaking scenario that happened a couple times in the S20 era right before the sim switch, but I'm going to make that assumption, perhaps incorrectly. This means that the Copperheads could actually qualify or be eliminated in Week 15. And while they're actually in a decently strong position if they win in Week 15, with a win and in scenario or even potentially a scenario where they could fall backwards into the playoffs, if they lose to Arizona in Week 15 they're actually almost sunk, needing at minimum 2 games to go their way including some really unlikely results.
AUS clinches Playoffs with:
Win over ARI AND SJS over HON
AUS is Eliminated with:
Loss vs ARI AND HON over SJS AND NYS over NOLA
Honolulu remains the weakest team by point differential in the ASFC playoff picture, with a +1.3 advantage, literally less than a third as good as the Copperheads at 2nd worst with a +4.3 mark. And yet Honolulu is the only team that can possibly wrench the 1 seed from the Outlaws without going to weird tiebreakers, thanks to a weird combination of their losses being against teams that wouldn't give them a head to head disadvantage and by being the worst performer against NSFC teams among the conference's contenders. In the last 2 weeks, they've lost to the Otters and beaten the Copperheads, and thus have secured a conference record tiebreaker win in any possible scenario. They control their own destiny to the 2 seed as a result, but require as many results to go their way as the Copperheads do in order to secure a playoff berth in Week 15. They do have a couple of options, though.
HON clinches playoffs with:
Win over SJS AND NOLA over NYS OR
Win over SJS AND ARI over AUS
I think I got this all right; I did not go farther down than the Conference Record tiebreaker because, to be frank, I don't know what the heck is next in this stupid sim.
Starting with the easy one, Arizona clinched its playoff berth this week with a win over the Otters and the Silverbacks losing to the Crash. There is a pileup of three 9-5 teams, a record that is able to tie the Outlaws with the proper results over the next 2 weeks, however either the Silverbacks or the Hahalua are guaranteed to keep the other from reaching an 11-5 record during their Week 16 matchup. Even if they tied, taht would just mean that they both would have a worse record. Arizona's wins over the Yeti and Otters over the last couple of weeks, along with losses by all 3 of their closest rivals, have meant that they have a large number of paths to the 1 seed, or at least getting a tiebreaker.
ARI guarantees a 1 seed with:
Win over AUS OR NOLA over NYS + SJS over HON
ARI guarantees Home Field Advantage with
Win over AUS OR NYS, HON losses + YKW over BAL
Note that all of these apply only to week 15, week 16 will have a different set of games but the same idea applies; Arizona will win a tiebreaker over Austin due to conference record, and will at least go into a tiebreak for the 1 seed if Honolulu loses a game.
Colorado is the other side of the equation, a team that is technically in the playoff hunt, but only by the skin of its teeth. With a best record of 8-8, they'd need a very specific set of results to make it, but it's still possible, and they actually have a few different ways to do it outright. That being said, they will have absolutely no shot if they cannot beat the Crash in Colorado. This would be an absolutely wild season for the Yeti to break one of the longest running playoff droughts in league history.
COL is eliminated with:
Loss to CTC OR YKW over BAL
IF COL survives, then
COL gets 3rd seed with:
Win over YKW AND 1 SAR loss AND BER over CTC
Every other team is a lot more complex, so let's start with the team that screwed up their playoff push the hardest.
Two games ago I said Sarasota should be fighting for the 1 seed in Week 16 because they had an extremely easy end to their schedule, despite not exactly being an impressive team. The Sailfish have since dropped games to both the Wraiths and the Yeti, and gone from the 2nd seed in the conference to the 5th seed. They still have a path, but it's gone from a cakewalk to a tightrope, one that could see them eliminated in Week 15.
SAR is Eliminated with:
Loss to CHI + any two of YKW over BAL, BER over OCO, and CTC over COL
I thought Yellowknife was dead and buried after losing 5 of their last 6 and trading away one of their star RB duo, but the Wraiths showed they still have some life in those undead bones by winning back to back away games over the Sailfish and Fire Salamanders. They are now only a game out of the 3rd and 2nd seed, and still have a path to the 1 seed. Still, with a 7-7 record, a loss and other results could eliminate them in Week 16 just as much as the Sailfish, though if they win they'd guarantee a win in any tiebreaker not involving just the Crash. They could even have a chance in a 3 way between them, the Crash, and the Sailfish.
YKW is Eliminated with:
Loss to BAL AND BER over OCO + CHI over SAR OR CTC over COL
After beating the Hawks in week 13, the Fire Salamanders took over the 1st seed, but squandered that by losing to the Wraiths at home, falling all the way to 3rd. As such, they need a lot in order to guarantee the playoffs in Week 15, mainly due to flat out losing head to head tiebreakers with both the Crash and the Wraiths, and possibly losing to the Sailfish via conference record.
BER clinches Playoffs with:
Win over OCO AND BAL over YKW AND CHI over SAR
The Crash were not perfect over the last 2 weeks, losing to the Butchers, but by beating the Silverbacks they put themselves back at the 2nd seed. They control their own destiny, and even only need one other result to go their way as long as they win to clinch the playoffs in Week 15.
CTC clinches Playoffs with:
Win over COL AND CHI over SAR
The Hawks are the 1 seed in the NSFC, albeit in a much more precarious spot than the Outlaws: they only have a 1 game lead on 2 teams, the Fire Salamanders hold the tiebreaker and the Crash tie them so they cannot clinch that 1 seed in Week 15 without a lot of help, and they technically are still able to miss the playoffs entirely. Their loss to Berlin 2 weeks ago put them in this spot, though other losses meant they retook the one seed with their win over Chicago last week. They do, however, control their own destiny and don't need much help to secure a playoff berth even if they do fall flat on their face. In order to clinch in Week 15, however, half the week's games would need to go their way not counting their own.
BAL clinches Playoffs with:
Win over YKW OR Loss + COL over CTC, CHI over SAR, OCO over BER
The ASFC is much simpler; there are 3 teams after 2 spots with no long shots or people who can completely fall off. The Silverbacks beat the Sabercats but lost to the Crash in the last couple of weeks, meaning they will have the conference record tiebreaker over the Copperheads no matter what happens. They will be unable to beat the Hahalua on Conference tiebreaker, and in a 3 way tie where they lose Week 16 they will be the odd man out, meaning that as far as I can tell this technically 4th seed can clinch the playoffs in Week 15, and cannot be eliminated no matter the way results shake up.
NYS clinches Playoffs with:
Win over NOLA AND HON over SJS AND ARI over AUS
The Copperheads, meanwhile, beat the Second Line and lost to the Hahalua over the last couple weeks; they are the odd man out in a Conference tiebreaker situation, meaning that the only tiebreak that they can survive is one between all three of New York, Honolulu, and themselves that specifically has New York losing to the Hahalua in Week 16. In that case New York would be out via a worse head to head record. That is assuming Wolverine Studios fixed their absolutely dumb tiebreaking scenario that happened a couple times in the S20 era right before the sim switch, but I'm going to make that assumption, perhaps incorrectly. This means that the Copperheads could actually qualify or be eliminated in Week 15. And while they're actually in a decently strong position if they win in Week 15, with a win and in scenario or even potentially a scenario where they could fall backwards into the playoffs, if they lose to Arizona in Week 15 they're actually almost sunk, needing at minimum 2 games to go their way including some really unlikely results.
AUS clinches Playoffs with:
Win over ARI AND SJS over HON
AUS is Eliminated with:
Loss vs ARI AND HON over SJS AND NYS over NOLA
Honolulu remains the weakest team by point differential in the ASFC playoff picture, with a +1.3 advantage, literally less than a third as good as the Copperheads at 2nd worst with a +4.3 mark. And yet Honolulu is the only team that can possibly wrench the 1 seed from the Outlaws without going to weird tiebreakers, thanks to a weird combination of their losses being against teams that wouldn't give them a head to head disadvantage and by being the worst performer against NSFC teams among the conference's contenders. In the last 2 weeks, they've lost to the Otters and beaten the Copperheads, and thus have secured a conference record tiebreaker win in any possible scenario. They control their own destiny to the 2 seed as a result, but require as many results to go their way as the Copperheads do in order to secure a playoff berth in Week 15. They do have a couple of options, though.
HON clinches playoffs with:
Win over SJS AND NOLA over NYS OR
Win over SJS AND ARI over AUS
I think I got this all right; I did not go farther down than the Conference Record tiebreaker because, to be frank, I don't know what the heck is next in this stupid sim.