09-27-2023, 02:02 AM
(This post was last modified: 09-28-2023, 06:59 PM by lemonoppy. Edited 1 time in total.)
Hey all, and welcome to the S44 season! Of course there's all the hustle and bustle of the actual ISFL season itself, but we all know what the real most important thing about the new season is; fantasy football! That's right, you can be boring and root for your teams to win trophies, awards, and rings, or you could draft your favorite players in a quest to prove you're smarter than everyone else! And what better way to prove you're the best than following the guide of someone who definitely knows what he's doing in fantasy predictions*? Or, if you don't trust me, you can take a peek at the consensus rankings from me, @jdc4654, and @CROney3. Sure, you could say that it's a bit late, but I say it's a feature, not a bug! After all, wouldn't want any last second trades coming in and ruining the projections (looking at you Sarasota and Berlin).
*Assuming you don't actually look at my predictions history or historical success rate
Let's take a look at what the S44 fantasy season has in store for us.
Quarterbacks
1) Preston Beatz
The defending QB1 enters S44 in pretty much the same situation he left S43 in. If anything there may actually be some improvement as both Hawks running backs are getting hammered by regression. Sure they're still decent, but Beatz and his receivers are now clearly the superior side of the offense. This probably results in Baltimore throwing the ball more, potentially reaching the upper echelon of pass attempts instead of sitting near the league average. Maxed out QB, 2 maxed out receivers, and a regressing run game? Sign me up.
2) Willier Miller
The Sailfish are known for being one of the more pass happy teams in the league, and that doesn't figure to change entering S44. Their young running back is still, well... young. Better than last season for sure, but why run the ball with a still mediocre running game when you have a nearly maxed QB throwing to a pair of nearly maxed wideouts? Miller falls slightly behind Beatz for me on account of Baltimore simply being the better team on paper, but Miller should have the volume and quality of receivers to give Beatz a run for his money as the QB1.
3) Nova Montagne
The last few seasons have been rough for Montagne and the Hahalua, and I honestly have no clue why. They have consistently been one of the highest TPE teams over the last 3 seasons or so, but the sim just doesn't feel like letting them put up the video game numbers you'd expect from such an offense. Still, higher TPE is what gives you better chances in the sim RNG machine so I'm going to keep putting money on Montagne. The Honolulu QB is still maxed after her first season of regression, and she has a pair of solid receivers to throw to. Combine that with the heavy regression of Bean Delphine Jr and there's a clear path to a high powered passing game for Montagne.
4) Wolfie McDummy Jr
The Yeeti strike again! I'm honestly not sure how McDummy had such a high scoring season despite being quite low on the TPE scale, but I don't see how he can get much worse as his TPE improves. Colorado still doesn't have a premier running back after trading Malik Brooks to Cape Town last season, so that passing volume doesn't figure to come down any time soon. They also still have a pair of premier targets in NCADV RAINN and Mister Hogmally, so it's not like McDummy is throwing to scrubs. High volume with good targets should keep McDummy fantasy relevant.
5) Blaine Falco
New York is not a pass happy team. Falco threw just 537 pass attempts last season, placing him 12th in passing volume. So why is he still ranked so high? Because the Silverbacks offense is friggin ridiculous. There has not been a single QB in the league who comes anywhere close to Falco's efficiency over the last two seasons, and he hasn't even hit peak yet. He's throwing to one of the best WR corps in the entire league and has a top 3 running back lining up in the backfield. Falco's ceiling will be limited as long as New York remains a run focused team, but Falco's growth may force a change in playcalling sooner rather than later.
6) Painted Penguin
Yeah, the Butchers aren't exactly good. Yeah, they were already the 2nd highest passing volume team last season and Painted Penguin still limped to a QB12 finish for fantasy. You know what I say to that? This pick is probably a mistake. But I'm still planting my flag here regardless! Volume is king for fantasy, and while the Butchers struggled to get anything going offensively their talent is still concentrated in the passing game. Penguin is going to sling it. All he needs is a few more breaks to go his way and he'll at least be fantasy relevant.
7) Adrian St. Christmas
The career journeyman QB finds now finds himself with one of the most sim cursed teams I have ever seen. Was it that the Fire Salamanders were cursed or was it just Roque Santa Cruz? We'll find out soon enough. But it is worth noting that Berlin has a deep WR corps. Sure, none of the wideouts have over 1k TPE anymore, but he's got three wideouts over 850 TPE along with a tight end very nearly at the same level. Certainly enough that a good QB can make things happen, right? Right?
8) Absolute Unit
Even I was blindsided by Unit's ascension to fantasy relevance last season, and I'm GM of Yellowknife! With the Wraiths defense a shell of its former self, the offense picked up the slack with enormous volume, both running and passing (4th most pass attempts, 5th most rush attempts). Looking at that defense on paper, things don't really seem to be on the rise just yet, so Unit should once again lead a high volume offense. The big concern here is that both Unit and his top weapon (Calvin Spiff) are regressing pretty heavily at this point. Yellowknife has other players who can step into the forefront (RB Money Tolliver, TE Detective Crashmore) and have a much deeper wide receiver rotation now, but is that enough to keep the offense firing on all cylinders?
Running Backs
1) Frank Dux
Dux's last few seasons have been a roller coaster. After breaking out in S42, S43 was quite the disappointment. But then Dux was traded to New York. All it did last season was make a mess of a crowded backfield, but with Michaelangelo McTurtle now deep in regression Dux stands out as the clear RB1 for the offensive powerhouse Silverbacks going into S44. There's certainly some risk of a committee backfield, but even if that does happen Dux's TPE should keep him at the top of the rotation.
2) Armor Queen
Berlin's last minute trade for Pete Zuh last season ruined Queen's real shot at a breakout, but she has a second chance here. Zuh is pretty deep into regression, entering S44 barely floating above 600 TPE and mostly inactive. Queen, meanwhile, is really just now hitting her stride and should have Zuh's TPE doubled in short order. Even if the Fire Salamanders continue to operate with a committee backfield, Queen should be the clear leader of it. Queen should also get a boost for being part of one of the league's better offenses on paper, though Berlin needs to break free of their sim curse for that to really come into play.
3) Danny Nedelko
At some point Arizona has to start using an RB rotation. What's the point of having Sherwin Blue Jr, the highest TPE running back in the league, if you don't plan on actually using him? Strictly speaking Nedelko is still maxed out himself, but it's just a waste of cap space to leave Blue in purgatory. The risk of an RBBC is too great to ignore, which is the only reason Nedelko isn't the clear RB1 in an otherwise muddy season for projections. However, an RBBC would not be a death sentence for Nedelko. If anything a committee backfield would embolden Arizona to run the ball even more, which means Nedelko will still have plenty of volume to go with likely improved efficiency. His ceiling is in flux depending on what the Outlaws do with Blue, but his floor is as safe as ever.
4) Money Tolliver
Those paying attention last season saw that I had Tolliver ranked quite highly despite being at middling TPE sharing a backfield with another middling TPE running back. Was that bias as the Wraiths' GM? Possibly. But I wasn't wrong. Tolliver filled in as a hybrid RB/WR nicely, racking up fantasy points as both a runner and receiver. Yellowknife has enough receiver depth this season to actually fill out an entire starting lineup, but Tolliver remains the best weapon the Wraiths have. He'll continue to be moved around and involved in the offense. The only real risk here is whether the Wraiths offense can support a repeat performance as QB Absolute Unit begins to fade with regression.
5) Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin
Much like Nedelko, JHM is going to be mired in a committee backfield. However, also like Nedelko, Cape Town runs with enough volume and efficiency that it really hasn't slowed him down much. Sure, Harbinger-Marjin isn't hitting 300+ fantasy points anymore, but he's not far off. Is he actually going to finish this season as the RB5? Probably not. Is he going to be a top 10 RB? Almost certainly, and that kind of safe floor makes him pretty valuable in my book.
6) Kumquat Archipelago
Archipelago has had a great run as a fantasy running back, consistently finding himself at or near the top of the fantasy rankings over the years. However, eventually regression comes for all, and Arch is starting to show his age. Mind you, he's still certainly a solid back, and he will almost certainly continue to be both the lead back in Baltimore's rotation as well as a consistent presence as a wide receiver. He is below 1k TPE, though, and the TPE balance of the offense makes me believe Baltimore will shift to being more pass heavy. With Arch's opportunities dwindling and his skill level being sapped by father time, it's unlikely he will return to fantasy dominance.
7) Leandre Diarra
Diarra is the engine of Orange County's offense. Most of what they accomplish is going to go through his legs. The only problem is... what exactly are we expecting the Otters to accomplish on offense? It's true that they were certainly respectable as a unit last season and they've managed to largely replace the talent they lost when they traded Thomas Robinson to Sarasota, but the fact remains that this is one of the lower TPE offenses in the league. A repeat of last year's performance may be difficult, which will hurt everyone involved, including Diarra.
8) Bean Delphine Jr
If TPE is anything to go by, gone are the days of Bean being a workhorse running back. Regression has hit the longtime fantasy stud hard, and the door is now open for recently converted Stetson David to start eating into Bean's workload. Still, Honolulu should boast one of the league's better offenses, and Bean is still the lead back for the time being. There's upside to be had here, even if the floor is a bit shakier than we've become accustomed to.
9) Sherwin Blue Jr
Look, I know Arizona hates fantasy and just likes to taunt people with Blue, but come on. Blue is literally the highest TPE running back in the league now! At some point he has to get some carries, right? Right?! In all seriousness, Blue is one of the more polarizing players for fantasy this season. His ceiling is that he could overtake Danny Nedelko as the lead back for Arizona's committee. His floor is being used exclusively as a FB and TE. If you feel like gambling, no one gives as much potential value - or risk - as Blue.
10) Nakiri Ayame
Ayame already finished as the RB10 last season and the TPE difference between Ayame and JHM has only decreased this season. She'll benefit from a major role in the ISFL's #1 rushing attack, which shows no signs of slowing down. The only real risk here is that Cape Town's receivers have been slightly upgraded going into S44, but the Crash should continue to be a run focused team. Whatever decrease in volume might happen will almost surely be offset by improved efficiency as defenses try to balance the improved passing game against stopping the relentless ground attack.
11) Kyle Crane
On the one hand, Crane does benefit from being the clear workhorse back in New Orleans, and he's actually getting to solid TPE levels. On the other hand, NOLA's offense is... well, bad. There's some upside if the Second Line decide to feed their best weapon, but no amount of volume is going to change the fact that there isn't a clear path to scoring touchdowns in this offense. Unless Crane manages to command almost every TD New Orleans scores, his ceiling is going to be rather low.
12+13) Howard Coward / Jeff Newman
Why am I combining these two when I separate out the other committee backfields? Because this particular backfield has a history of being nearly perfectly split, with only minor deviations season to season. Interestingly enough, Coward has beaten Newman for fantasy purposes each of the last two seasons despite being marginally lower TPE, but only by 20 points in S42 and 13 points in S43. As for their ranking in general, Austin sits at an interesting crossroads from a playcalling perspective. Longtime QB Queen Elizabeth II is getting old, and regression is rapidly wiping out her TPE. She still has elite weapons to throw to, but will the Copperheads continue to throw with their aging QB? Or will they lean into their pair of elite running backs? Coward and Newman have struggled to produce reliable fantasy points so far, but there's serious potential here if the Copperheads change up their gameplan.
14) Lord Farquaads
This is quite the tumble for the defending RB5, but this isn't just any normal circumstance. For starters, San Jose swapped out their QB. Owen Farrell may have been getting a little long in the tooth, but Josh Patterson still has a little ways to go before making up the TPE difference. On top of downgrading at QB, the receiving corps is looking rather flat as well. The bottom line is that this offense is severely lacking talent, which means there probably won't be many TDs to go around. This situation is not unlike the one Kyle Crane finds himself in with NOLA, but unlike Crane Farquaads isn't the only running back in his backfield. Will rookie Maple Dogwood take a significant share of the backfield work? Maybe, maybe not. But the fact that the risk exists on an offense that already figures to be low scoring is a scary proposition.
15) Ceti Pyxis
For as good as Kumquat Archipelago was for the Hawks last season, Pyxis just couldn't seem to find a groove despite being right on Archipelago's tail in terms of TPE. Maybe Baltimore can unlock Pyxis the same way they managed to unlock her backfield mate, but the more likely scenario is that Pyxis will continue to be in Archipelago's shadow as the pair of backs regress. If the Hawks throw more this season as they likely figure to do, that just means lower volume on top of reduced efficiency. Not a great combo.
16) Ace Anderson
On his own, Anderson is a rather low TPE running back thrust into a borderline workhorse role. If the Sailfish operated with even the remote semblance of a balanced offense, this would likely mean a respectable outlook for the young back. Unfortunately for Anderson, Sarasota is known for their outrageously pass happy playcalling, and there is little reason to believe that will change given the weapons Willier Miller has to work with. Still, a workhorse back is worth something.
17) Jake Jefferson
See everything I have for Ace Anderson above? Copy that, but for an even lower TPE back on a worse offense.
18) Adebayo Akinfenwa
The big Wraith is coming for this Wraith. Akinfenwa has had a long and productive career, but with this last round of regression he has fallen well behind backfield mate Money Tolliver. He'll still see some use - especially if Tolliver continues to split out wide as a receiver to maximize his versatile talents - but his days of being a sneaky fantasy stud are likely over.
Wide Receivers
1) Johnny Blaze Jr
Johnny Blaze Jr just put up one of the best receiving seasons of all time. Will he repeat? Almost certainly not now that Sarasota has Thomas Robinson commanding some targets as well. Still, the Sailfish are incredibly pass happy and Blaze figures to remain their WR1. The volume will be there, as will the TDs.
2) Rocky Moreaux
Moreaux has several factors working in his favor going into S44. First of all, Kumquat Archipelago is fading due to regression. Arch may be a running back, but his heavy usage outside split up the target share quite a bit. A lower TPE Archipelago means more targets for Moreaux, both because Arch won't split the targets as much and because it means the Hawks are likely to throw more. On top of that, Jay Money was traded away during the offseason, reducing the effectiveness of Baltimore's WR3 and concentrating the TPE talent on just Moreaux and Shane Turnbull. It's probably not quite enough to level the playing field with Blaze, but it certainly should be enough to make Moreaux a stud fantasy asset.
3) Octavio Perez
Like I said above for Nova Montagne, maybe I'm getting suckered into believing in the Hahalua again, but damnit they look like they should be good on paper! Honolulu's RB situation is somewhat in flux as Bean Delphine Jr heads deep into regression, which opens the doors for Perez to be the clear WR1 of a very pass heavy attack. Doubly so since long time target competition Leek Mai-Heinous has swapped over to offensive line.
4) Austin Morley
Morley quietly finished last season as the overall WR3. He may not score many TDs in Chicago's anemic offense, but his 123 catches and 1390 yards ranked second only to Blaze Jr last season and there's little reason to believe a change is coming. Chicago has a maxed out QB, Morley has no real competition for targets, and the Butchers figure to be playing from behind a quite a bit this season.
5) NCADV RAINN
I projected RAINN to be a breakout candidate last year and, well... it didn't really work out. For reasons I can't explain, somehow QB Wolfie McDummy Jr had a stellar season and it flat out didn't translate to his WR1, who finished S43 as the overall WR15. So here's to second chances! McDummy continues to grow into being an elite QB, Colorado still has no run game to speak of, and Mister Hogmally (RAINN's biggest competition for targets) has regressed down to being more or less equal with RAINN in TPE. This has to work out eventually, right?
6+7) Mandrews McHollywood / Matthew Mara
I don't know what New York has in the water, but these two receivers were almost identical last season (finished with just 2 points separating them). I'm not even going to try to predict which one will win out this coming season. What I do know is that the Silverbacks boast an absolutely elite offense, and there's a very real chance they finally open up the passing game a bit with QB Blaine Falco nearing his build cap. Guaranteed plenty of TDs with the potential to see increased catches and yardage. Doesn't get much safer.
8) Thomas Robinson
While it's likely Johnny Blaze Jr will continue to be utilized as the true WR1, Sarasota will almost certainly throw enough for the newly acquired Robinson to be fantasy relevant. Lord knows they have the volume and offensive efficiency to make both elite.
9) Shane Turnbull
Mirroring Sarasota, Baltimore's elite WR2 is likely to find himself in the same situation as Thomas Robinson. The Hawks are likely to be a bit more pass happy than last season, but should still be an offensive juggernaut with plenty of scoring opportunities. Only reason he falls behind Robinson is that it's highly unlikely that Baltimore will be able to outpace the Sailfish in pass attempts.
10) Sconnie McSix
McSix got hit pretty hard by regression this offseason, then immediately announced that this would be his final season. It's unlikely McSix will relinquish the WR1 role for Berlin, but he's not the undisputed WR1 anymore either. The Fire Salamanders are more likely to spread the ball around a bit to take advantage of their deep receiving corps, a strategy which will likely hurt McSix's bottom line.
11) Florida Man
A third WR2 who finds himself in a very similar situation as Robinson and Turnbull. Florida Man lags a little behind the competition in TPE and Honolulu seems likely to lag behind Sarasota and Baltimore in overall effectiveness, but the theme remains the same; team with regressing running game and elite passing game is likely to throw a ton.
12) Kairo Knight
It probably wouldn't surprise anyone to learn that Cape Town finished S43 with the fewest pass attempts in the league. Quite frankly that's probably going to happen again, or close to it. However, there is some glimmer of hope for Knight. QB Creg Jerrith IV is still a maxed out QB, and Knight is starting to separate himself from his competition at receiver. He'll need to be incredibly efficient to be a good fantasy receiver because the volume is almost certain to not be there, but a very efficient season is not out of the question as opponents should be more focused on trying to stop the Crash's deadly backfield duo.
13) Benji Aguilera
Pretty much the same situation as Knight, only lower TPE and attached to an even better RB tandem.
14+15) Zaphod Beeblebrox / Delores Bickerman
Austin's offense has been baffling for a few seasons now. They've had the passing volume to support elite receivers, but for some reason have a tendency to rotate their receivers through the formations. This has regularly resulted in disappointing finishes for their otherwise stud receivers. Now there's also the threat of the Copperheads leaning more into their running game as QB Queen Elizabeth II enters her golden years. There's still potential here - Austin could both concentrate their receiving roles and continue to feed the passing game - but it feels like hoping for that may be grasping at straws.
16) Calvin Spiff
Spiff his old. His QB is getting old. But the Wraiths are once again likely going to need that offense to pick up the slack of a very low TPE defense, and Spiff is still far and away the best receiver on Yellowknife's roster. The targets will be there.
17) Big McLarge Huge
McLarge Huge had a breakout campaign in S43, finishing as the WR6 overall despite being mid TPE himself and having a low TPE QB throwing him the ball. You can bank on that being the status quo if you want, but that looks more like a fluke to me. Orange County is also one of the more run heavy teams in the league, further limiting the sustainability of his remarkable finish last season. He is still their WR1, though, so a repeat isn't entirely out of the question.
18) Keanu Calhoun
I'm not really sure what to make of the San Jose offense. Nothing about it strikes me as being particularly effective. Whatever they do manage to produce, though, has a good chance of going through Calhoun. The future Hall of Fame hopeful made it clear that he wants to be the featured receiver, so whatever the Sabercats do will likely keep him fed. Just don't be surprised if that's a steady diet of russet potatoes instead of steak.
Tight Ends
1) Mister Hogmally
I don't know what happened to the tight end field this season, but they just kinda all died. Hogmally is effectively ISFL's own Travis Kelce for how much he stands out from the rest of the crowd. A clear top target for one of the premier passing teams, Hogmally offers massive positional advantage for whoever drafts him.
2) Detective Crashmore
Crashmore is similar to Hogmally, only... less. Crashmore himself is lower TPE and the Wraiths aren't quite as prolific as a passing team. Still, Crashmore is clearly one of Yellowknife's top weapons, so that's worth something in the bleak tight end landscape.
3) Lucius Salem
Salem is getting hammered by regression, and he's no longer the clear 2nd target in Sarasota's high flying passing attack. But the fact that he should still be involved at all in said passing attack is enough to rank him 3rd.
4) Nick Williams
Yeah, Nick Williams was awful last season, and if Berlin pulls the same depth chart shenanigans as they did last season Williams will be awful again. But at a certain point, Berlin has to admit that their 800+ TPE tight end is probably better to play as their TE1 than their sub-400 TPE wide receiver. Food for thought.
5) American Boot
God this is depressing. Boot's corpse (he already announced that this will be his last season) is literally the worst skill player on Cape Town's run heavy offense, but he at least still has over 600 TPE in one of the better offenses in the league. Yes, that's how low the bar is.
6) Kenny Szymborski
I guess someone has to catch passes from rookie Josh Patterson. Why not the tight end?
7) Bread Bowl
Similar situation as American Boot, except worse.
Offensive Line
1) Bengal Tigerheart
The mauler continues to anchor the left end of Baltimore's high flying offense. With more passing likely in store for the Hawks, Tigerheart's stock should only continue to go up.
2) Raya Ho'opa'i
Sticking with the potentially misguided theme of believing in the Hahalua. Ho'opa'i is a high TPE lineman set to be the left tackle of a Honolulu team that is probably about to see a sizable leap in pass attempts. The potential for a breakout season is there.
3) Nathan Meagher
There's a little bit of hope in this ranking that Berlin can figure out their sim cursed woes, but it's worth mentioning that Meagher was already the OL5 last season despite Berlin's struggles. If the Fire Salamanders figure things out, Meagher could rocket up the ranks in a hurry.
4) Brandon Mason
The second highest TPE lineman in the league carries some risk. As noted above, there's a very real chance the Copperheads shift to being a more run focused team this season, which will probably hurt Mason's overall potential (pass heavy offenses tend to be better for offensive linemen). Still, when you're high enough TPE you can make your own good fortune, and Mason definitely fits the bill.
5) Dusty Wilson
Dusty may be starting to regress, but he's still coming off an OL1 finish last season. The Wraiths aren't likely to operate quite as high powered of an attack in S44, though, so that may represent Wilson's peak.
6) Fortified Fridge
Another elite lineman wasted on a very run heavy offense. Fridge is good enough to make his own good fortune (and his mauler archetype helps), but the Outlaws aren't likely to pass enough to make Fridge elite.
7) Walrus Jones
Similar to Fridge, but on a worse offense that will probably result in fewer plays run. Fewer plays means fewer opportunities to record pancakes.
8) Swantavius Payne
The future Hall of Fame linemen isn't quite what he used to be (nor is Cape Town's run heavy offense doing him any favors), but he's still the mauler left tackle for one of the better offenses in the league. He'll be fine.
Kickers
Unlike the positions above, kickers really don't have much say in how well they'll do. Their success is largely derived from factors outside their control, namely how good the offense is that they're attached to. Therefore, their ranking is more a gauge of how good their respective offenses are likely to be, with some adjusting based on whether the kicker themselves can reliably make the opportunities their offenses give them.
1) Ray Baker
2) Swantavius King
3) Wing Wang
4) Bob Kickerson
5) Jayme Jayne Jay-Jaymison
6) Mike Makmur
7) Charlie Brown
8) Golden Foote
Defensive Linemen
1) Mo Gago
Long time defensive stalwart Daron Arnold's regression opened the door for Gago to become the dominant force on Yellowknife's defensive line. With little other talent anywhere in the Wraith's front seven, Gago is set up to terrorize opposing backfields uncontested.
2) MC Hammer
After trading away Mabel Pines, Hammer is now the clear top dog on Baltimore's defensive line. He'll have to compete with a slew of solid-to-great linebackers to rack up stats, but at least his competition on the line itself isn't that compelling.
3) Carly Rae Jensen
Very similar situation as MC Hammer, only Jensen's competition is a little stiffer as Austin boasts a better defensive line and a slightly better pair of outside linebackers.
4) Bridge Burner
The defending DL1 faces a tough road to defending his title as he will have to deal with stiff competition all across Honolulu's front seven for stats. However, Burner is still the highest TPE defensive lineman in the entire league. That counts for something.
5) Joseph Reed
Reed showed cracks in his armor last season as the long time defensive stalwart slipped to a DL3 finish in S43. Regression is not treating the Butcher kindly, so a rebound may be a tall order. Still, he is the best player in Chicago's front seven, so the chances should be there.
6) Sir Tywrell Xah'Aawrone
Xah'Aawrone finds himself at a similar skill level as Joseph Reed, and with no notable talent left along the defensive line. He does, however, have to contend with a decent linebacker corps, which could take away a little bit of his potential upside.
7) Lionel Scrimmage
The Silverbacks boast an elite front seven, and there's a chance Scrimmage might not even be the the every down attack dog of the defensive line. They are the best defensive lineman on New York's roster, though, however slight the margin might be.
8) Alex Armstrong
I've learned over the seasons that it's very difficult for defensive ends to crack the elite ranks of fantasy defensive linemen. However, Armstrong has a very real chance in S44. He already posted a DL7 finish last season, and could potentially benefit from a 4-3 defense in San Jose this season. There's a lot of risk here given the historical performance of DEs compared to DTs, but if anyone could upset the status quo it would be Armstrong.
Linebackers
1) Sledge Hammer
To be honest, I really struggle to identify what makes linebackers good for fantasy. Every time I think I've found a pattern, the sim throws me a curveball and I have to start all over. What we do know, though, is that your best bet to finding a good fantasy linebacker is to find a high TPE, outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense. Hammer fits the bill as the clear top dog of Baltimore's linebacker corps.
2) Akaki Akayre
Akayre is slipping a bit due to regression, but the Arizona linebacker did finish last season as the overall LB1 for a reason. He's the best player in the Outlaws' front seven, a position which is likely to serve him well once again.
3) Sim Sunigh
Sunigh is one of the best linebackers in the league, and with little competition along the Otters' front seven he should be a wrecking ball after being mired in a 4-3 defense last season.
4) Tank McGibbons
Austin's front seven is an odd mix of studs and scrubs. Maybe he strikes a balance with the other elite members of Austin's defensive line and linebackers and repeats last season's strong performance. Maybe they all sabotage each other into irrelevance.
5) Maxwell Jacob Friedman
The Hahalua boast a strong linebacker corps top to bottom along with a strong defensive line. However, he managed to parlay that into the overall LB2 finish last season so clearly Honolulu found something that works for him.
6) Max Honestly
The Sailfish really don't have much to write home about along their front seven, so Honestly has a clear path to relevance. The main thing holding him back is being somewhat middling in TPE himself.
7) Rolud Onyxgut
With longtime Cape Town stalwarts Christian Marciano and Barry Badman fading toward retirement, Rolud Onyxgut is perfectly poised to pick up the slack. There is some risk of Cape Town running a 4-3 defense on occasion and Onyxgut himself isn't particularly high TPE, but hopefully the lack of other strong options along the front seven opens up some doors for him.
8) Cruella de Ville
I mentioned above the Alex Armstrong holds intriguing upside based on what appears to be 4-3 personnel in San Jose. That's not such good news for Cruella. As good as de Ville has been, a switch to a 4-3 base defense means fewer opportunities for the defending LB3. Still, her high TPE should keep her afloat.
Defensive Backs
1) Jake Williams
A high TPE corner on a team with a juggernaut offense. Opponents are going to have to pass to keep up, which is going to feed right into Williams's production.
2) Luigi Lanikai
Even if the Hahalua can't figure out their offensive woes, Lanikai will still benefit from what looks to be a pass funnel defense on paper (the comparatively weak safeties make it more enticing to attack Honolulu's defense through the air than the ground). If the Hahalua manage to get their offense rolling again, that could be exasperated even more as teams chuck it to keep up.
3) Bonzi Buddy
Defensive back performances tend to be tied closer to TPE than most, so Buddy's regression is not doing him any favors. However, New York boasts a powerhouse offense and buzzsaw front seven, so opponents are going to be trying to pass on the Silverbacks endlessly. Buddy should have plenty of opportunities.
4) Apollo Program
The journeyman CB finds himself in Colorado. His TPE is still a tad lower than you'd like to see from a good fantasy DB, but he proved last year he could make it work in the right situation. The Yeti certainly have a solid offense, so Program has the potential for a strong season.
5) Harley Andrews
Andrews still boasts a high TPE total and the Sailfish consistently field one of the top offenses in the league. Where Andrews might be hurt is that Sarasota's front seven largely lack any teeth. Opponents are more likely to run the ball to keep it out of the hands of the Sailfish offense, which could hurt Andrews' potential.
6) Charlie Thorson
Berlin has an odd relationship with the sim, so it's hard to say how much opponents are actually going to throw on them. Thorson certainly has potential to be great, but there are a lot of things that need to be ironed out by the Fire Salamanders before he can live up to that potential.
7) Zamir Kehla Jr
It's rather difficult to tell if Austin's defense will be more pass funnel or run funnel as their studs and scrubs approach has left some odd holes. Regardless, Kehla himself is a bit low on TPE for what you'd like to see out of an elite fantasy DB. Not bad, but not great.
8) Brooks Piggott
On the one hand, San Jose absolutely has a pass funnel defense as Piggott is really the only notable player among the Sabercats' defensive backs. On the other hand, San Jose's offense will not be doing him any favors.
*Assuming you don't actually look at my predictions history or historical success rate
Let's take a look at what the S44 fantasy season has in store for us.
Quarterbacks
1) Preston Beatz
The defending QB1 enters S44 in pretty much the same situation he left S43 in. If anything there may actually be some improvement as both Hawks running backs are getting hammered by regression. Sure they're still decent, but Beatz and his receivers are now clearly the superior side of the offense. This probably results in Baltimore throwing the ball more, potentially reaching the upper echelon of pass attempts instead of sitting near the league average. Maxed out QB, 2 maxed out receivers, and a regressing run game? Sign me up.
2) Willier Miller
The Sailfish are known for being one of the more pass happy teams in the league, and that doesn't figure to change entering S44. Their young running back is still, well... young. Better than last season for sure, but why run the ball with a still mediocre running game when you have a nearly maxed QB throwing to a pair of nearly maxed wideouts? Miller falls slightly behind Beatz for me on account of Baltimore simply being the better team on paper, but Miller should have the volume and quality of receivers to give Beatz a run for his money as the QB1.
3) Nova Montagne
The last few seasons have been rough for Montagne and the Hahalua, and I honestly have no clue why. They have consistently been one of the highest TPE teams over the last 3 seasons or so, but the sim just doesn't feel like letting them put up the video game numbers you'd expect from such an offense. Still, higher TPE is what gives you better chances in the sim RNG machine so I'm going to keep putting money on Montagne. The Honolulu QB is still maxed after her first season of regression, and she has a pair of solid receivers to throw to. Combine that with the heavy regression of Bean Delphine Jr and there's a clear path to a high powered passing game for Montagne.
4) Wolfie McDummy Jr
The Yeeti strike again! I'm honestly not sure how McDummy had such a high scoring season despite being quite low on the TPE scale, but I don't see how he can get much worse as his TPE improves. Colorado still doesn't have a premier running back after trading Malik Brooks to Cape Town last season, so that passing volume doesn't figure to come down any time soon. They also still have a pair of premier targets in NCADV RAINN and Mister Hogmally, so it's not like McDummy is throwing to scrubs. High volume with good targets should keep McDummy fantasy relevant.
5) Blaine Falco
New York is not a pass happy team. Falco threw just 537 pass attempts last season, placing him 12th in passing volume. So why is he still ranked so high? Because the Silverbacks offense is friggin ridiculous. There has not been a single QB in the league who comes anywhere close to Falco's efficiency over the last two seasons, and he hasn't even hit peak yet. He's throwing to one of the best WR corps in the entire league and has a top 3 running back lining up in the backfield. Falco's ceiling will be limited as long as New York remains a run focused team, but Falco's growth may force a change in playcalling sooner rather than later.
6) Painted Penguin
Yeah, the Butchers aren't exactly good. Yeah, they were already the 2nd highest passing volume team last season and Painted Penguin still limped to a QB12 finish for fantasy. You know what I say to that? This pick is probably a mistake. But I'm still planting my flag here regardless! Volume is king for fantasy, and while the Butchers struggled to get anything going offensively their talent is still concentrated in the passing game. Penguin is going to sling it. All he needs is a few more breaks to go his way and he'll at least be fantasy relevant.
7) Adrian St. Christmas
The career journeyman QB finds now finds himself with one of the most sim cursed teams I have ever seen. Was it that the Fire Salamanders were cursed or was it just Roque Santa Cruz? We'll find out soon enough. But it is worth noting that Berlin has a deep WR corps. Sure, none of the wideouts have over 1k TPE anymore, but he's got three wideouts over 850 TPE along with a tight end very nearly at the same level. Certainly enough that a good QB can make things happen, right? Right?
8) Absolute Unit
Even I was blindsided by Unit's ascension to fantasy relevance last season, and I'm GM of Yellowknife! With the Wraiths defense a shell of its former self, the offense picked up the slack with enormous volume, both running and passing (4th most pass attempts, 5th most rush attempts). Looking at that defense on paper, things don't really seem to be on the rise just yet, so Unit should once again lead a high volume offense. The big concern here is that both Unit and his top weapon (Calvin Spiff) are regressing pretty heavily at this point. Yellowknife has other players who can step into the forefront (RB Money Tolliver, TE Detective Crashmore) and have a much deeper wide receiver rotation now, but is that enough to keep the offense firing on all cylinders?
Running Backs
1) Frank Dux
Dux's last few seasons have been a roller coaster. After breaking out in S42, S43 was quite the disappointment. But then Dux was traded to New York. All it did last season was make a mess of a crowded backfield, but with Michaelangelo McTurtle now deep in regression Dux stands out as the clear RB1 for the offensive powerhouse Silverbacks going into S44. There's certainly some risk of a committee backfield, but even if that does happen Dux's TPE should keep him at the top of the rotation.
2) Armor Queen
Berlin's last minute trade for Pete Zuh last season ruined Queen's real shot at a breakout, but she has a second chance here. Zuh is pretty deep into regression, entering S44 barely floating above 600 TPE and mostly inactive. Queen, meanwhile, is really just now hitting her stride and should have Zuh's TPE doubled in short order. Even if the Fire Salamanders continue to operate with a committee backfield, Queen should be the clear leader of it. Queen should also get a boost for being part of one of the league's better offenses on paper, though Berlin needs to break free of their sim curse for that to really come into play.
3) Danny Nedelko
At some point Arizona has to start using an RB rotation. What's the point of having Sherwin Blue Jr, the highest TPE running back in the league, if you don't plan on actually using him? Strictly speaking Nedelko is still maxed out himself, but it's just a waste of cap space to leave Blue in purgatory. The risk of an RBBC is too great to ignore, which is the only reason Nedelko isn't the clear RB1 in an otherwise muddy season for projections. However, an RBBC would not be a death sentence for Nedelko. If anything a committee backfield would embolden Arizona to run the ball even more, which means Nedelko will still have plenty of volume to go with likely improved efficiency. His ceiling is in flux depending on what the Outlaws do with Blue, but his floor is as safe as ever.
4) Money Tolliver
Those paying attention last season saw that I had Tolliver ranked quite highly despite being at middling TPE sharing a backfield with another middling TPE running back. Was that bias as the Wraiths' GM? Possibly. But I wasn't wrong. Tolliver filled in as a hybrid RB/WR nicely, racking up fantasy points as both a runner and receiver. Yellowknife has enough receiver depth this season to actually fill out an entire starting lineup, but Tolliver remains the best weapon the Wraiths have. He'll continue to be moved around and involved in the offense. The only real risk here is whether the Wraiths offense can support a repeat performance as QB Absolute Unit begins to fade with regression.
5) Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin
Much like Nedelko, JHM is going to be mired in a committee backfield. However, also like Nedelko, Cape Town runs with enough volume and efficiency that it really hasn't slowed him down much. Sure, Harbinger-Marjin isn't hitting 300+ fantasy points anymore, but he's not far off. Is he actually going to finish this season as the RB5? Probably not. Is he going to be a top 10 RB? Almost certainly, and that kind of safe floor makes him pretty valuable in my book.
6) Kumquat Archipelago
Archipelago has had a great run as a fantasy running back, consistently finding himself at or near the top of the fantasy rankings over the years. However, eventually regression comes for all, and Arch is starting to show his age. Mind you, he's still certainly a solid back, and he will almost certainly continue to be both the lead back in Baltimore's rotation as well as a consistent presence as a wide receiver. He is below 1k TPE, though, and the TPE balance of the offense makes me believe Baltimore will shift to being more pass heavy. With Arch's opportunities dwindling and his skill level being sapped by father time, it's unlikely he will return to fantasy dominance.
7) Leandre Diarra
Diarra is the engine of Orange County's offense. Most of what they accomplish is going to go through his legs. The only problem is... what exactly are we expecting the Otters to accomplish on offense? It's true that they were certainly respectable as a unit last season and they've managed to largely replace the talent they lost when they traded Thomas Robinson to Sarasota, but the fact remains that this is one of the lower TPE offenses in the league. A repeat of last year's performance may be difficult, which will hurt everyone involved, including Diarra.
8) Bean Delphine Jr
If TPE is anything to go by, gone are the days of Bean being a workhorse running back. Regression has hit the longtime fantasy stud hard, and the door is now open for recently converted Stetson David to start eating into Bean's workload. Still, Honolulu should boast one of the league's better offenses, and Bean is still the lead back for the time being. There's upside to be had here, even if the floor is a bit shakier than we've become accustomed to.
9) Sherwin Blue Jr
Look, I know Arizona hates fantasy and just likes to taunt people with Blue, but come on. Blue is literally the highest TPE running back in the league now! At some point he has to get some carries, right? Right?! In all seriousness, Blue is one of the more polarizing players for fantasy this season. His ceiling is that he could overtake Danny Nedelko as the lead back for Arizona's committee. His floor is being used exclusively as a FB and TE. If you feel like gambling, no one gives as much potential value - or risk - as Blue.
10) Nakiri Ayame
Ayame already finished as the RB10 last season and the TPE difference between Ayame and JHM has only decreased this season. She'll benefit from a major role in the ISFL's #1 rushing attack, which shows no signs of slowing down. The only real risk here is that Cape Town's receivers have been slightly upgraded going into S44, but the Crash should continue to be a run focused team. Whatever decrease in volume might happen will almost surely be offset by improved efficiency as defenses try to balance the improved passing game against stopping the relentless ground attack.
11) Kyle Crane
On the one hand, Crane does benefit from being the clear workhorse back in New Orleans, and he's actually getting to solid TPE levels. On the other hand, NOLA's offense is... well, bad. There's some upside if the Second Line decide to feed their best weapon, but no amount of volume is going to change the fact that there isn't a clear path to scoring touchdowns in this offense. Unless Crane manages to command almost every TD New Orleans scores, his ceiling is going to be rather low.
12+13) Howard Coward / Jeff Newman
Why am I combining these two when I separate out the other committee backfields? Because this particular backfield has a history of being nearly perfectly split, with only minor deviations season to season. Interestingly enough, Coward has beaten Newman for fantasy purposes each of the last two seasons despite being marginally lower TPE, but only by 20 points in S42 and 13 points in S43. As for their ranking in general, Austin sits at an interesting crossroads from a playcalling perspective. Longtime QB Queen Elizabeth II is getting old, and regression is rapidly wiping out her TPE. She still has elite weapons to throw to, but will the Copperheads continue to throw with their aging QB? Or will they lean into their pair of elite running backs? Coward and Newman have struggled to produce reliable fantasy points so far, but there's serious potential here if the Copperheads change up their gameplan.
14) Lord Farquaads
This is quite the tumble for the defending RB5, but this isn't just any normal circumstance. For starters, San Jose swapped out their QB. Owen Farrell may have been getting a little long in the tooth, but Josh Patterson still has a little ways to go before making up the TPE difference. On top of downgrading at QB, the receiving corps is looking rather flat as well. The bottom line is that this offense is severely lacking talent, which means there probably won't be many TDs to go around. This situation is not unlike the one Kyle Crane finds himself in with NOLA, but unlike Crane Farquaads isn't the only running back in his backfield. Will rookie Maple Dogwood take a significant share of the backfield work? Maybe, maybe not. But the fact that the risk exists on an offense that already figures to be low scoring is a scary proposition.
15) Ceti Pyxis
For as good as Kumquat Archipelago was for the Hawks last season, Pyxis just couldn't seem to find a groove despite being right on Archipelago's tail in terms of TPE. Maybe Baltimore can unlock Pyxis the same way they managed to unlock her backfield mate, but the more likely scenario is that Pyxis will continue to be in Archipelago's shadow as the pair of backs regress. If the Hawks throw more this season as they likely figure to do, that just means lower volume on top of reduced efficiency. Not a great combo.
16) Ace Anderson
On his own, Anderson is a rather low TPE running back thrust into a borderline workhorse role. If the Sailfish operated with even the remote semblance of a balanced offense, this would likely mean a respectable outlook for the young back. Unfortunately for Anderson, Sarasota is known for their outrageously pass happy playcalling, and there is little reason to believe that will change given the weapons Willier Miller has to work with. Still, a workhorse back is worth something.
17) Jake Jefferson
See everything I have for Ace Anderson above? Copy that, but for an even lower TPE back on a worse offense.
18) Adebayo Akinfenwa
The big Wraith is coming for this Wraith. Akinfenwa has had a long and productive career, but with this last round of regression he has fallen well behind backfield mate Money Tolliver. He'll still see some use - especially if Tolliver continues to split out wide as a receiver to maximize his versatile talents - but his days of being a sneaky fantasy stud are likely over.
Wide Receivers
1) Johnny Blaze Jr
Johnny Blaze Jr just put up one of the best receiving seasons of all time. Will he repeat? Almost certainly not now that Sarasota has Thomas Robinson commanding some targets as well. Still, the Sailfish are incredibly pass happy and Blaze figures to remain their WR1. The volume will be there, as will the TDs.
2) Rocky Moreaux
Moreaux has several factors working in his favor going into S44. First of all, Kumquat Archipelago is fading due to regression. Arch may be a running back, but his heavy usage outside split up the target share quite a bit. A lower TPE Archipelago means more targets for Moreaux, both because Arch won't split the targets as much and because it means the Hawks are likely to throw more. On top of that, Jay Money was traded away during the offseason, reducing the effectiveness of Baltimore's WR3 and concentrating the TPE talent on just Moreaux and Shane Turnbull. It's probably not quite enough to level the playing field with Blaze, but it certainly should be enough to make Moreaux a stud fantasy asset.
3) Octavio Perez
Like I said above for Nova Montagne, maybe I'm getting suckered into believing in the Hahalua again, but damnit they look like they should be good on paper! Honolulu's RB situation is somewhat in flux as Bean Delphine Jr heads deep into regression, which opens the doors for Perez to be the clear WR1 of a very pass heavy attack. Doubly so since long time target competition Leek Mai-Heinous has swapped over to offensive line.
4) Austin Morley
Morley quietly finished last season as the overall WR3. He may not score many TDs in Chicago's anemic offense, but his 123 catches and 1390 yards ranked second only to Blaze Jr last season and there's little reason to believe a change is coming. Chicago has a maxed out QB, Morley has no real competition for targets, and the Butchers figure to be playing from behind a quite a bit this season.
5) NCADV RAINN
I projected RAINN to be a breakout candidate last year and, well... it didn't really work out. For reasons I can't explain, somehow QB Wolfie McDummy Jr had a stellar season and it flat out didn't translate to his WR1, who finished S43 as the overall WR15. So here's to second chances! McDummy continues to grow into being an elite QB, Colorado still has no run game to speak of, and Mister Hogmally (RAINN's biggest competition for targets) has regressed down to being more or less equal with RAINN in TPE. This has to work out eventually, right?
6+7) Mandrews McHollywood / Matthew Mara
I don't know what New York has in the water, but these two receivers were almost identical last season (finished with just 2 points separating them). I'm not even going to try to predict which one will win out this coming season. What I do know is that the Silverbacks boast an absolutely elite offense, and there's a very real chance they finally open up the passing game a bit with QB Blaine Falco nearing his build cap. Guaranteed plenty of TDs with the potential to see increased catches and yardage. Doesn't get much safer.
8) Thomas Robinson
While it's likely Johnny Blaze Jr will continue to be utilized as the true WR1, Sarasota will almost certainly throw enough for the newly acquired Robinson to be fantasy relevant. Lord knows they have the volume and offensive efficiency to make both elite.
9) Shane Turnbull
Mirroring Sarasota, Baltimore's elite WR2 is likely to find himself in the same situation as Thomas Robinson. The Hawks are likely to be a bit more pass happy than last season, but should still be an offensive juggernaut with plenty of scoring opportunities. Only reason he falls behind Robinson is that it's highly unlikely that Baltimore will be able to outpace the Sailfish in pass attempts.
10) Sconnie McSix
McSix got hit pretty hard by regression this offseason, then immediately announced that this would be his final season. It's unlikely McSix will relinquish the WR1 role for Berlin, but he's not the undisputed WR1 anymore either. The Fire Salamanders are more likely to spread the ball around a bit to take advantage of their deep receiving corps, a strategy which will likely hurt McSix's bottom line.
11) Florida Man
A third WR2 who finds himself in a very similar situation as Robinson and Turnbull. Florida Man lags a little behind the competition in TPE and Honolulu seems likely to lag behind Sarasota and Baltimore in overall effectiveness, but the theme remains the same; team with regressing running game and elite passing game is likely to throw a ton.
12) Kairo Knight
It probably wouldn't surprise anyone to learn that Cape Town finished S43 with the fewest pass attempts in the league. Quite frankly that's probably going to happen again, or close to it. However, there is some glimmer of hope for Knight. QB Creg Jerrith IV is still a maxed out QB, and Knight is starting to separate himself from his competition at receiver. He'll need to be incredibly efficient to be a good fantasy receiver because the volume is almost certain to not be there, but a very efficient season is not out of the question as opponents should be more focused on trying to stop the Crash's deadly backfield duo.
13) Benji Aguilera
Pretty much the same situation as Knight, only lower TPE and attached to an even better RB tandem.
14+15) Zaphod Beeblebrox / Delores Bickerman
Austin's offense has been baffling for a few seasons now. They've had the passing volume to support elite receivers, but for some reason have a tendency to rotate their receivers through the formations. This has regularly resulted in disappointing finishes for their otherwise stud receivers. Now there's also the threat of the Copperheads leaning more into their running game as QB Queen Elizabeth II enters her golden years. There's still potential here - Austin could both concentrate their receiving roles and continue to feed the passing game - but it feels like hoping for that may be grasping at straws.
16) Calvin Spiff
Spiff his old. His QB is getting old. But the Wraiths are once again likely going to need that offense to pick up the slack of a very low TPE defense, and Spiff is still far and away the best receiver on Yellowknife's roster. The targets will be there.
17) Big McLarge Huge
McLarge Huge had a breakout campaign in S43, finishing as the WR6 overall despite being mid TPE himself and having a low TPE QB throwing him the ball. You can bank on that being the status quo if you want, but that looks more like a fluke to me. Orange County is also one of the more run heavy teams in the league, further limiting the sustainability of his remarkable finish last season. He is still their WR1, though, so a repeat isn't entirely out of the question.
18) Keanu Calhoun
I'm not really sure what to make of the San Jose offense. Nothing about it strikes me as being particularly effective. Whatever they do manage to produce, though, has a good chance of going through Calhoun. The future Hall of Fame hopeful made it clear that he wants to be the featured receiver, so whatever the Sabercats do will likely keep him fed. Just don't be surprised if that's a steady diet of russet potatoes instead of steak.
Tight Ends
1) Mister Hogmally
I don't know what happened to the tight end field this season, but they just kinda all died. Hogmally is effectively ISFL's own Travis Kelce for how much he stands out from the rest of the crowd. A clear top target for one of the premier passing teams, Hogmally offers massive positional advantage for whoever drafts him.
2) Detective Crashmore
Crashmore is similar to Hogmally, only... less. Crashmore himself is lower TPE and the Wraiths aren't quite as prolific as a passing team. Still, Crashmore is clearly one of Yellowknife's top weapons, so that's worth something in the bleak tight end landscape.
3) Lucius Salem
Salem is getting hammered by regression, and he's no longer the clear 2nd target in Sarasota's high flying passing attack. But the fact that he should still be involved at all in said passing attack is enough to rank him 3rd.
4) Nick Williams
Yeah, Nick Williams was awful last season, and if Berlin pulls the same depth chart shenanigans as they did last season Williams will be awful again. But at a certain point, Berlin has to admit that their 800+ TPE tight end is probably better to play as their TE1 than their sub-400 TPE wide receiver. Food for thought.
5) American Boot
God this is depressing. Boot's corpse (he already announced that this will be his last season) is literally the worst skill player on Cape Town's run heavy offense, but he at least still has over 600 TPE in one of the better offenses in the league. Yes, that's how low the bar is.
6) Kenny Szymborski
I guess someone has to catch passes from rookie Josh Patterson. Why not the tight end?
7) Bread Bowl
Similar situation as American Boot, except worse.
Offensive Line
1) Bengal Tigerheart
The mauler continues to anchor the left end of Baltimore's high flying offense. With more passing likely in store for the Hawks, Tigerheart's stock should only continue to go up.
2) Raya Ho'opa'i
Sticking with the potentially misguided theme of believing in the Hahalua. Ho'opa'i is a high TPE lineman set to be the left tackle of a Honolulu team that is probably about to see a sizable leap in pass attempts. The potential for a breakout season is there.
3) Nathan Meagher
There's a little bit of hope in this ranking that Berlin can figure out their sim cursed woes, but it's worth mentioning that Meagher was already the OL5 last season despite Berlin's struggles. If the Fire Salamanders figure things out, Meagher could rocket up the ranks in a hurry.
4) Brandon Mason
The second highest TPE lineman in the league carries some risk. As noted above, there's a very real chance the Copperheads shift to being a more run focused team this season, which will probably hurt Mason's overall potential (pass heavy offenses tend to be better for offensive linemen). Still, when you're high enough TPE you can make your own good fortune, and Mason definitely fits the bill.
5) Dusty Wilson
Dusty may be starting to regress, but he's still coming off an OL1 finish last season. The Wraiths aren't likely to operate quite as high powered of an attack in S44, though, so that may represent Wilson's peak.
6) Fortified Fridge
Another elite lineman wasted on a very run heavy offense. Fridge is good enough to make his own good fortune (and his mauler archetype helps), but the Outlaws aren't likely to pass enough to make Fridge elite.
7) Walrus Jones
Similar to Fridge, but on a worse offense that will probably result in fewer plays run. Fewer plays means fewer opportunities to record pancakes.
8) Swantavius Payne
The future Hall of Fame linemen isn't quite what he used to be (nor is Cape Town's run heavy offense doing him any favors), but he's still the mauler left tackle for one of the better offenses in the league. He'll be fine.
Kickers
Unlike the positions above, kickers really don't have much say in how well they'll do. Their success is largely derived from factors outside their control, namely how good the offense is that they're attached to. Therefore, their ranking is more a gauge of how good their respective offenses are likely to be, with some adjusting based on whether the kicker themselves can reliably make the opportunities their offenses give them.
1) Ray Baker
2) Swantavius King
3) Wing Wang
4) Bob Kickerson
5) Jayme Jayne Jay-Jaymison
6) Mike Makmur
7) Charlie Brown
8) Golden Foote
Defensive Linemen
1) Mo Gago
Long time defensive stalwart Daron Arnold's regression opened the door for Gago to become the dominant force on Yellowknife's defensive line. With little other talent anywhere in the Wraith's front seven, Gago is set up to terrorize opposing backfields uncontested.
2) MC Hammer
After trading away Mabel Pines, Hammer is now the clear top dog on Baltimore's defensive line. He'll have to compete with a slew of solid-to-great linebackers to rack up stats, but at least his competition on the line itself isn't that compelling.
3) Carly Rae Jensen
Very similar situation as MC Hammer, only Jensen's competition is a little stiffer as Austin boasts a better defensive line and a slightly better pair of outside linebackers.
4) Bridge Burner
The defending DL1 faces a tough road to defending his title as he will have to deal with stiff competition all across Honolulu's front seven for stats. However, Burner is still the highest TPE defensive lineman in the entire league. That counts for something.
5) Joseph Reed
Reed showed cracks in his armor last season as the long time defensive stalwart slipped to a DL3 finish in S43. Regression is not treating the Butcher kindly, so a rebound may be a tall order. Still, he is the best player in Chicago's front seven, so the chances should be there.
6) Sir Tywrell Xah'Aawrone
Xah'Aawrone finds himself at a similar skill level as Joseph Reed, and with no notable talent left along the defensive line. He does, however, have to contend with a decent linebacker corps, which could take away a little bit of his potential upside.
7) Lionel Scrimmage
The Silverbacks boast an elite front seven, and there's a chance Scrimmage might not even be the the every down attack dog of the defensive line. They are the best defensive lineman on New York's roster, though, however slight the margin might be.
8) Alex Armstrong
I've learned over the seasons that it's very difficult for defensive ends to crack the elite ranks of fantasy defensive linemen. However, Armstrong has a very real chance in S44. He already posted a DL7 finish last season, and could potentially benefit from a 4-3 defense in San Jose this season. There's a lot of risk here given the historical performance of DEs compared to DTs, but if anyone could upset the status quo it would be Armstrong.
Linebackers
1) Sledge Hammer
To be honest, I really struggle to identify what makes linebackers good for fantasy. Every time I think I've found a pattern, the sim throws me a curveball and I have to start all over. What we do know, though, is that your best bet to finding a good fantasy linebacker is to find a high TPE, outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense. Hammer fits the bill as the clear top dog of Baltimore's linebacker corps.
2) Akaki Akayre
Akayre is slipping a bit due to regression, but the Arizona linebacker did finish last season as the overall LB1 for a reason. He's the best player in the Outlaws' front seven, a position which is likely to serve him well once again.
3) Sim Sunigh
Sunigh is one of the best linebackers in the league, and with little competition along the Otters' front seven he should be a wrecking ball after being mired in a 4-3 defense last season.
4) Tank McGibbons
Austin's front seven is an odd mix of studs and scrubs. Maybe he strikes a balance with the other elite members of Austin's defensive line and linebackers and repeats last season's strong performance. Maybe they all sabotage each other into irrelevance.
5) Maxwell Jacob Friedman
The Hahalua boast a strong linebacker corps top to bottom along with a strong defensive line. However, he managed to parlay that into the overall LB2 finish last season so clearly Honolulu found something that works for him.
6) Max Honestly
The Sailfish really don't have much to write home about along their front seven, so Honestly has a clear path to relevance. The main thing holding him back is being somewhat middling in TPE himself.
7) Rolud Onyxgut
With longtime Cape Town stalwarts Christian Marciano and Barry Badman fading toward retirement, Rolud Onyxgut is perfectly poised to pick up the slack. There is some risk of Cape Town running a 4-3 defense on occasion and Onyxgut himself isn't particularly high TPE, but hopefully the lack of other strong options along the front seven opens up some doors for him.
8) Cruella de Ville
I mentioned above the Alex Armstrong holds intriguing upside based on what appears to be 4-3 personnel in San Jose. That's not such good news for Cruella. As good as de Ville has been, a switch to a 4-3 base defense means fewer opportunities for the defending LB3. Still, her high TPE should keep her afloat.
Defensive Backs
1) Jake Williams
A high TPE corner on a team with a juggernaut offense. Opponents are going to have to pass to keep up, which is going to feed right into Williams's production.
2) Luigi Lanikai
Even if the Hahalua can't figure out their offensive woes, Lanikai will still benefit from what looks to be a pass funnel defense on paper (the comparatively weak safeties make it more enticing to attack Honolulu's defense through the air than the ground). If the Hahalua manage to get their offense rolling again, that could be exasperated even more as teams chuck it to keep up.
3) Bonzi Buddy
Defensive back performances tend to be tied closer to TPE than most, so Buddy's regression is not doing him any favors. However, New York boasts a powerhouse offense and buzzsaw front seven, so opponents are going to be trying to pass on the Silverbacks endlessly. Buddy should have plenty of opportunities.
4) Apollo Program
The journeyman CB finds himself in Colorado. His TPE is still a tad lower than you'd like to see from a good fantasy DB, but he proved last year he could make it work in the right situation. The Yeti certainly have a solid offense, so Program has the potential for a strong season.
5) Harley Andrews
Andrews still boasts a high TPE total and the Sailfish consistently field one of the top offenses in the league. Where Andrews might be hurt is that Sarasota's front seven largely lack any teeth. Opponents are more likely to run the ball to keep it out of the hands of the Sailfish offense, which could hurt Andrews' potential.
6) Charlie Thorson
Berlin has an odd relationship with the sim, so it's hard to say how much opponents are actually going to throw on them. Thorson certainly has potential to be great, but there are a lot of things that need to be ironed out by the Fire Salamanders before he can live up to that potential.
7) Zamir Kehla Jr
It's rather difficult to tell if Austin's defense will be more pass funnel or run funnel as their studs and scrubs approach has left some odd holes. Regardless, Kehla himself is a bit low on TPE for what you'd like to see out of an elite fantasy DB. Not bad, but not great.
8) Brooks Piggott
On the one hand, San Jose absolutely has a pass funnel defense as Piggott is really the only notable player among the Sabercats' defensive backs. On the other hand, San Jose's offense will not be doing him any favors.