*Ultimus Preview

[caleb.grim]

Hi everyone! Here is the game breakdown for the Ultimus. So far, this method has gotten 3 of the 4 games correct, so take that for what it’s worth. In case you are curious, the advantages are determined by standardizing the averages for each team and comparing z-scores. Good luck to both teams tonight!

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Utlimus XLV

Austin Copperheads (9-7) vs. Sarasota Sailfish (9-7)

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AUS Scoring Offense vs. SAR Scoring Defense

28.0 PPG (3rd) vs. 26.2 PPG (9th)

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Advantage: 

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SAR Scoring Offense vs. AUS Scoring Defense

27.6 PPG (4th) vs. 27.3 PPG (12th)

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Advantage: 

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AUS Total Offense vs. SAR Total Defense

384.4YPG (4th) vs. 356.4 YPG (5th)

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Advantage: 

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SAR Total Offense vs. AUS Total Defense

391.1 YPG (2nd) vs. 357.2 YPG (6th)

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Advantage: 

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AUS Run Offense vs. SAR Run Defense

100.9 YPG (3rd) vs. 96.9 YPG (12th)

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Advantage: 

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AUS Pass Offense vs. SAR Pass Defense

283.5 YPG (5th) vs. 259.5 YPG (4th)

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Advantage: 

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SAR Run Offense vs. AUS Run Defense

81.4 YPG (8th) vs. 98.8 YPG (13th)

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Advantage:

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SAR Pass Offense vs. AUS Pass Defense

309.7 YPG (3rd) vs. 258.4 YPG (3rd)

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Advantage: 

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Regular Season Meetings

Week 5 at Sarasota: Sarasota 37 - Austin 31

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Advantage:

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Homefield Advantage

Sarasota Home Record: 4-4 (League Average: 4.6 Home Wins)

Austin Away Record: 4-4 (League Average: 3.4 Away Wins)

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Advantage: none

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Record in Last 6 Regular Season Games

Austin: 3-3

Sarasota: 3-3

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Advantage: none

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Austin Keys to the Game:

1. Keep the Offense Roling

While Austin was the 3rd highest scoring team in the ISFL during the regular season, they have been at a different level in the playoffs. Scoring 40+ points the past two games, the Copperheads have been able to score in a variety of different ways. With five different players scoring touchdowns, the offense has turned into a well-oiled machine.

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2. Hold onto the Football

In their week 5 meeting with Sarasota, the Copperheads fumbled the ball 4 times. Two of these were recovered by the Sailfish and changed the complexion of the game. The first gave the Sailfish a short field which turned into a field goal. The second occurred with the Copperheads down 3 with less than two minutes left in the game and ended any possibility of a game winning drive.

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3. Don’t Overlook Special Teams

In their previous meeting this season, Johnny Blaze Jr. (@JBLAZE_THE_BOSS) returned a punt for a touchdown. Charlie Brown (@Kyle) hasn’t been asked to do much beyond extra points in the playoffs so far but showed some struggles this year from distance, missing 6 field goals over 40 yards. With the expectation of a high scoring game, a mistake on special teams could be the difference.

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Sarasota Keys to the Game:

1. Take Advantage of the Copperhead’s Porous Run Defense

In their previous matchup, Ace Anderson (@DangWookie) 99 yards on 20 carries and Kumquat Archipelago (@I Love Feet!) added 23 yards on 4 carries for one of Sarasota’s best rushing outputs on the season. If the Sailfish can average 5 yards per attempt again, their offense becomes nearly unstoppable.

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2. Find the Mismatch

The Sailfish offense can spread the ball around in the passing game with 5 players receiving 5 or more targets in both of their playoff victories. Exploiting the weak point in the defense is made possible by the array of weapons in the passing game.

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3. Have the Defense Step Up in the 2nd Half

The Austin Copperheads have destroyed teams coming out of halftime outsourcing their opponents 52 - 14 in the 2nd half of their playoff games. In both instances, they have turned halftime deficits into wins. While the Sailfish have outscored their opponents 37 - 20 in the 2nd half, it falls on their defense to prevent a second half scoring surge.

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Advantage Count: 6 - 3

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Prediction based on Advantage Count: Sarasota comes out hot and scores an opening drive touchdown on a catch and run by Johnny Blaze Jr. (@JBLAZE_THE_BOSS) which is followed up by a quick turnover forced by their defense to put them in position for a quick two score lead. Going into halftime, things look bleak for Austin as they look flat for the whole first half. Coming out of halftime though, the Copperheads continue their strong finishes and are able to get back into the game after multiple scores by Delores Bickerman (@Kyamprac). While the Austin defense comes up big on a late third down stop, Swantavious King (@Yeenoghu) is able to pin the Copperheads on their own 2-yard line for the last possession of the game. Down 3 with under a minute to go, the Austin drive fails before it even has a chance to begin and Max Honestly (@Sizz) gets around the edge to sack Jay Cue III (@Opera_Phantom) for a safety on the first play of the drive securing the Ultimus victory for the Sailfish.

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32 - 27

[soevil]

I enjoy quite literally all of your content. Please keep it up.

[Raven]

Let's go fish

[Bamford13]

Jay Cue has won zero (0) championship games without Jordan Bamford on his team

[wizard_literal]

killing it in the media game as always! great work

[TwoSocks]

Jay Cue has won zero (0) championship games without Jordan Bamford on his team

Jay Cue has won one (1) championship game without Jordan Bamford on his team

[Bamford13]

Jay Cue has won zero (0) championship games without Jordan Bamford on his team

Jay Cue has won one (1) championship game without Jordan Bamford on his team

I was wrong. Bamford can’t win without Cue, Cue can win without Bamford