02-13-2024, 07:11 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-20-2024, 09:36 AM by lemonoppy. Edited 1 time in total.)
14: 
(=)
Record: 1-7
Record in Last 4 Games: 1-3
Point Differential: -9.2 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 27-25 win vs New York
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 30-14 loss at New Orleans
Going into this last week, I had thoughts about putting this team at 13th. Their second straight multi-possession loss where they were completely outmatched, along with a specific other result, put an end to that. This team has gone full on tank, as you might have seen on the Color Rush screen, sold off their pieces and in doing so made a lot of other teams better, and has maybe 2 good chances for wins left in the season. I'd say this was the worst team we'd seen in a while, but it's not even the worst team of the decade at this point. Maybe that changes with a bunch more trades though. Before going into full sell mode, though, they did scrape out a win over an also horrendous New York squad that means that Honolulu will not become the second franchise with two winless seasons.
13:
(-1)
Record: 1-7
Record in Last 4 Games: 0-4
Point Differential: -7.9 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 37-21 loss vs Sarasota
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 30-27 loss at Arizona
A completely woeful squad that's only somewhat buoyed by their recent gritty performance versus an otherwise top Arizona team. Colorado's interesting in that they have played worse the worse their opposition was; they would easily have won against the Silverbacks if not for them getting in their own way as often as they did, they let Sarasota look like a good team at home, but they only lost to the Crash and the Outlaws by one possession apiece, and even came back from 14 down against the Outlaws. Still, that 0-4 record over the last 4 goes completely unmatched, as does the poor competition that they've let dominate them.
12:
(-2)
Record: 2-6
Record in Last 4 Games: 1-3
Point Differential: -5.8 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 24-16 win at Colorado
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 27-14 loss vs Austin
That 27-14 loss was a lot worse than it looks; the Silverbacks were completely shut out until there were less than 6 minutes left in the game. Other than that, though, this team has been putting on decent performances, at least for a bottom feeder. There's very much a large gap between 13th and 12th here, and these next few are all pretty close together. The problem is that they keep losing against other bad teams. Losing by 3 to Chicago in OT isn't great. Losing to a missed 2 point try that was scrubbed from existence away to the Hahalua has to really sting, though. And the team is still averaging a full point against them per game in Safeties!
11:
(+2)
Record: 3-5
Record in Last 4 Games: 2-2
Point Differential: -8.9 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 14-9 win vs Baltimore
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 40-10 loss at Austin
Parts of me want to put this team higher; the win over Baltimore is the single most impressive result any team in the entire bottom half had this section, and they do have a better record both in the last 4 games and total than some other teams, but I just can't shake the stinkers they have laid in back to back weeks. Sure, away to the Crash and Copperheads wasn't an easy pair of games, but for them to go as badly as they did makes their Week 5 and 6 victories look more like flukes than anything else. Believe it or not, with the 3rd worst offense and the 2nd worst defense, Sarasota has the worst average ranking among teams in terms of points. Worse than the Hahalua, worse than the Yeti.
That being said, by some miracle (which is called playing in the NSFC) they are only a game out of the playoffs. So I will cover their next 4 games. They have one tough home game against Arizona, and three very winnable games: home against Berlin, and away against New York and Chicago. None of those last 3 teams are escaping the Below Average section of this article, so I could totally see a 3-1 stretch to put them in the playoff hunt or even the playoffs themselves if things go poorly enough for other teams.
10:
(-1)
Record: 3-5
Record in Last 4 Games: 1-3
Point Differential: -3.1 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 23-20 loss vs Yellowknife
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 30-21 loss vs Berlin
Yes, I think Yellowknife requiring a comeback to just eke out a win over you is better than beating the Silverbacks in OT. Other than that, this team has shown no ability to hang with middling teams. This team now has wins over the bottom 3 teams in the rankings and multiple possession losses in literally every non Wraiths game. Again, this is a team in the NSFC whose two cross conference games were the Hahalua and the Silverbacks, and still has managed a 3-5 record with a very negative point differential. That's what keeps them this low.
So what about their next 4 games? Well, until the Second Line's resurgence, it looked really good! They have an away day to Yellowknife and then home games vs the Sailfish, the Crash, and the above Second Line. That being said, if the Second Line's resurgence is merely a mirage then they still have an advantage against 2 of those teams and home field advantage against the Crash. At best I see 3-1, which just like the Sailfish would put them in contention for the playoff spots because the ASFC is nearly a win better across the conference right now.
9:
(-3)
Record: 3-5
Record in Last 4 Games: 3-1
Point Differential: -2.8 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 30-21 win at Chicago
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 23-10 loss at New Orleans
There was a reason I didn't trust this team. Boasting a bad offense and a barely below average defense, basically the opposite of the Butchers, this team has arguably looked better over the last 4 weeks than the first 4, considering that they came a 2 point conversion away from tying the game against the Wraiths and haven't looked quite as hopeless as they did against the Hawks. But they came close in their losses out of conference against the Second Line and the Outlaws. That Second Line loss in particular basically assured that I'm putting a team I'm not going to bother doing a next 4 game writeup for a spot over them.
Their next 4 games are almost evenly split; they've got a home and away set against the worst their conference has to offer in the Sailfish and Yeti, followed by a home and away set against 2 of the top 5 teams in the league in the Hawks and Otters. It feels hard to give them better than a 2-2 record here, and that's not really good when I think it's likely that one of their fellow 3-5 teams goes 3-1 at the same time.
8:
(+3)
Record: 2-6
Record in Last 4 Games: 2-2
Point Differential: -3.7 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 16-14 loss at Arizona
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 51-23 loss at Orange County
If I were to just cover the last 3 games, then this team would actually be one of the most impressive over that stretch, with a 2 point loss to arguably top of the league Arizona and big wins in their other 2 games. Granted, both of them are against fellow below average teams, but they beat Berlin and Honolulu by double digits and generally seem to have turned a corner since the signing of new acquisitions. The main issue for this team is that they're unlikely to go 8-0 the rest of the way, and even if they did that still might not be enough to make it into the playoffs with how stacked the top 4 teams of the conference are. They are the exact same number of games outside the Playoff spots that they would be at 0-8 in the NSFC.
7:
(-3)
Record: 5-3
Record in Last 4 Games: 2-2
Point Differential: +4.5
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 18-17 loss at San Jose
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 18-13 loss vs Cape Town
The Wraiths are still the 2nd seed in the conference, same as they were last time. They are still well on their way to making a playoff spot, still 2 games up on the people outside of the playoffs entirely, and still have not had a convincing game since Week 3. It's now past Week 8. Sure, 3 of their 4 games were on the road, sure, the San Jose game was absolutely a great performance that they barely lost, sure, they are still a game up on the team directly in front of them on these rankings, but the fact remains that they were a 2 point conversion failure away from going to Overtime against the Fire Salamanders, took a last minute long touchdown pass to beat Chicago, and their entire offensive production against the Crash was basically a single 55 yard run. Outside of that they averaged less than 5 yards per pass attempt and less than 3 yards per run. When you got that stymied at home, it's difficult to put you over that very same team, especially when you had multiple chances to stake your claim over inferior teams and pointedly did not.
Speaking of chances to stake your claim over inferior teams, the next 4 games might be the easiest stretch of 4 any team has. Going away to the Crash could be a loss, but the other 3 games are against bottom 5 teams at home in the Butchers, the Silverbacks, and the Yeti. This should be an easy 3-1 or even 4-0 stretch that might catapult the Wraiths into 1st seed contention.
6:
(+2)
Record: 4-4
Record in Last 4 Games: 3-1
Point Differential: +1.4 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 18-13 win at Yellowknife
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 16-6 loss at Orange County
Easily the most impressive team in the NSFC over the last 4 games, the Crash have managed to drag one of the presumptive titans of the conference down towards their level, win somewhat comfortably against the bottom 2 of their conference, and not get completely embarrassed, at least on defense, by the team that may have become the single strongest in the league with their trade acquisitions in Orange County. Still, this is a very very lopsided team; their offense is the 2nd worst in the entire league, only the Hahalua have less points per game, but their defense is better than all but the Hawks and the Sabercats so far this season.
Their next 4 games are pretty rough; going away to face the resurgent and retooled Second Line, home against the Wraiths and the Sabercats, then away against the Butchers to round things off. An 0-4 record isn't out of the question with that slate of games, though I dearly hope it doesn't come to pass. I think they top out at 3-1; it's hard to judge the Second Line right now with who they've faced and where, and the team's defense is talented enough to hold people in check. I don't think 3-1 is all too likely though.
5:
(-3)
Record: 6-2
Record in Last 4 Games: 2-2
Point Differential: +8.8 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 40-20 win at Honolulu
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 14-9 loss at Sarasota
Maybe I'm being a bit harsh to this team, having them this low, but the loss to the Sailfish really stings here. By point differential, this is the best team in the league, but if there was ever a season to punish one team for having a much, much easier strength of schedule due to being in a much, much easier conference, and a cross conference game against the dregs of that conference, then it's now. It's also hard to specifically put this team above a team that beat them before a trade that boosted them to the upper echelons of the league, IN Baltimore. Baltimore boasts the T-2nd best offense and the T-best defense by points, though they're much worse on both fronts by yardage.
Baltimore's next 4 games include the toughest 2 on their schedule arguably all season. After an away day to the Yeti, they face both the Sabercats (away) and the Copperheads (at home) in back to back weeks. They round out their schedule with a much easier opponent at home, the Fire Salamanders. A 2-2 stretch might put their first seed in jeopardy if they follow that up with a loss to either the Wraiths or the Crash.
4:
(-3)
Record: 6-2
Record in Last 4 Games: 2-2
Point Differential: +6.0 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 18-17 win vs Yellowknife
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 33-20 loss at Austin
The top 4 teams in the ASFC all have arguments to be above or below other teams. While the Sabercats have in general cooled off tremendously from their first 4 games, they haven't cooled off enough to not still be up here; tough losses against the Outlaws and the Copperheads away keep their record in check, and their win over Yellowknife was the farthest thing from comfortable, but this is still a team in a playoff spot in one of the most difficult conferences to say that in halfway through the season, maybe ever. The other half of the tied best defense, and the 6th best offense, the Sabercats have only let a team score more than 20 on them once, but were unable to get more than 20 points themselves in their last 3 games against stiff competition.
Their next 4 games are tough, seeing them face 3 current playoff teams and the Silverbacks, but they do have the advantage of facing the harder 2 teams, the Hawks and the Copperheads, at home, and their only away day is against the Crash. Going 4-0 is a distinct possibility and would put the Sabercats in prime position for their first playoff berth in nearly a decade. Meanwhile, going 1-3 or 2-2 might see them as the odd man out of the 4 headed monster currently at the top of the ASFC.
3:
(+2)
Record: 7-1
Record in Last 4 Games: 3-1
Point Differential: +6.8 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 33-20 win vs San Jose
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 30-13 loss at Orange County
From here on out, every team has an argument to be at the top. I was originally going to have this team in 2nd, but the collapse in the 4th quarter of the Otters game was too much to bear; going from winning to losing by 3 possessions is not exactly the kind of feat you're trying to achieve. The Copperheads have the tied for 2nd best offense, and the 6th best defense by points, but actually surpass that in their yardage marks at 2nd and 1st per game. This is just a really well rounded and good team, currently leading the most top heavy conference I've ever seen on a head to head win. With all of that in mind, why aren't they 2nd at least? Because the team above them just had a more impressive set of performances recently and as a tiebreaker, beats them out in point differential by a pretty significant margin.
2:
(+1)
Record: 7-1
Record in Last 4 Games: 4-0
Point Differential: +8.1 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 17-10 win vs San Jose
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 16-14 win vs New Orleans
On one hand, this team has been extremely shaky in their last 2 games against bad teams; the pre-Tanksgiving New Orleans was within 10 yards of a game winning field goal chance before a sack fumble basically won the game for the Outlaws, and they let the Yeti come back and force Overtime after being down 2 possessions at the start of the 4th. But it's hard to argue with the 5 win streak this team is on, and their other 2 games were at least really good; beating San Jose and demolishing Berlin in Berlin. Being owners of the single best offense in the league and the 4th best defense is a mark only the Hawks can compare themselves to, and the Hawks obviously had a much easier schedule so far.
Their next 4 games do include more opportunities for them to actually slip up, with away days to the Silverbacks and the Sailfish. They also have a home game against the Hahalua, but that's not the matchup everyone has their calendars circled for. Next week we get to see the team that I would have had at the number 1 spot last week take on the new number 1 in their own backyard. Going to Orange County should be a fight, but even with a loss there this team should go 3-1 in the next section of schedule.
1:
(+6)
Record: 6-2
Record in Last 4 Games: 4-0
Point Differential: +6.0 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 30-13 win vs Austin
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 38-34 win at Baltimore
By record and point differential this team is lower, sure. They're merely tied for 4th in point differential and tied for 3rd in record. I have them directly above the 2 teams that have beaten them so far this season. But this team has rebuilt and has had by far the most impressive last 4 weeks of any team in the league. Their worst performance is beating a 6-2 team in their house by 4, thanks to a 10 point comeback with 5 minutes to go. Every other performance has been amazing: utterly stomping the pre-trade Second Line 51-23 and completely shutting down the offense of the Crash 16-6 are their less impressive performances when compared to their 4th quarter beatdown of the Copperheads. The Second Line stomping and Baltimore win even came before the trade that gave this team two key pieces in Battle Angel and Liath Squirrel. This team "merely" has the 4th best offense and the 5th best defense, but no team has looked anywhere near as good over these past 5 weeks, not even their fellow team on a 5 game win streak in the Outlaws.
The Otters definitely have a hard and an easy half of their schedule in the 8 games left, and coming up is the harder one. They host Arizona, and follow that up with games that could easily trip them up away to Austin, to Berlin, and to new look NOLA. I think a 3-1 is the likeliest outcome, which could still end up leaving the Otters out in the cold depending on if the conferences continue to be just as lopsided as they are now.
(=)Record: 1-7
Record in Last 4 Games: 1-3
Point Differential: -9.2 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 27-25 win vs New York
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 30-14 loss at New Orleans
Going into this last week, I had thoughts about putting this team at 13th. Their second straight multi-possession loss where they were completely outmatched, along with a specific other result, put an end to that. This team has gone full on tank, as you might have seen on the Color Rush screen, sold off their pieces and in doing so made a lot of other teams better, and has maybe 2 good chances for wins left in the season. I'd say this was the worst team we'd seen in a while, but it's not even the worst team of the decade at this point. Maybe that changes with a bunch more trades though. Before going into full sell mode, though, they did scrape out a win over an also horrendous New York squad that means that Honolulu will not become the second franchise with two winless seasons.
13:
(-1)Record: 1-7
Record in Last 4 Games: 0-4
Point Differential: -7.9 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 37-21 loss vs Sarasota
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 30-27 loss at Arizona
A completely woeful squad that's only somewhat buoyed by their recent gritty performance versus an otherwise top Arizona team. Colorado's interesting in that they have played worse the worse their opposition was; they would easily have won against the Silverbacks if not for them getting in their own way as often as they did, they let Sarasota look like a good team at home, but they only lost to the Crash and the Outlaws by one possession apiece, and even came back from 14 down against the Outlaws. Still, that 0-4 record over the last 4 goes completely unmatched, as does the poor competition that they've let dominate them.
12:
(-2)Record: 2-6
Record in Last 4 Games: 1-3
Point Differential: -5.8 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 24-16 win at Colorado
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 27-14 loss vs Austin
That 27-14 loss was a lot worse than it looks; the Silverbacks were completely shut out until there were less than 6 minutes left in the game. Other than that, though, this team has been putting on decent performances, at least for a bottom feeder. There's very much a large gap between 13th and 12th here, and these next few are all pretty close together. The problem is that they keep losing against other bad teams. Losing by 3 to Chicago in OT isn't great. Losing to a missed 2 point try that was scrubbed from existence away to the Hahalua has to really sting, though. And the team is still averaging a full point against them per game in Safeties!
11:
(+2)Record: 3-5
Record in Last 4 Games: 2-2
Point Differential: -8.9 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 14-9 win vs Baltimore
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 40-10 loss at Austin
Parts of me want to put this team higher; the win over Baltimore is the single most impressive result any team in the entire bottom half had this section, and they do have a better record both in the last 4 games and total than some other teams, but I just can't shake the stinkers they have laid in back to back weeks. Sure, away to the Crash and Copperheads wasn't an easy pair of games, but for them to go as badly as they did makes their Week 5 and 6 victories look more like flukes than anything else. Believe it or not, with the 3rd worst offense and the 2nd worst defense, Sarasota has the worst average ranking among teams in terms of points. Worse than the Hahalua, worse than the Yeti.
That being said, by some miracle (which is called playing in the NSFC) they are only a game out of the playoffs. So I will cover their next 4 games. They have one tough home game against Arizona, and three very winnable games: home against Berlin, and away against New York and Chicago. None of those last 3 teams are escaping the Below Average section of this article, so I could totally see a 3-1 stretch to put them in the playoff hunt or even the playoffs themselves if things go poorly enough for other teams.
10:
(-1)Record: 3-5
Record in Last 4 Games: 1-3
Point Differential: -3.1 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 23-20 loss vs Yellowknife
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 30-21 loss vs Berlin
Yes, I think Yellowknife requiring a comeback to just eke out a win over you is better than beating the Silverbacks in OT. Other than that, this team has shown no ability to hang with middling teams. This team now has wins over the bottom 3 teams in the rankings and multiple possession losses in literally every non Wraiths game. Again, this is a team in the NSFC whose two cross conference games were the Hahalua and the Silverbacks, and still has managed a 3-5 record with a very negative point differential. That's what keeps them this low.
So what about their next 4 games? Well, until the Second Line's resurgence, it looked really good! They have an away day to Yellowknife and then home games vs the Sailfish, the Crash, and the above Second Line. That being said, if the Second Line's resurgence is merely a mirage then they still have an advantage against 2 of those teams and home field advantage against the Crash. At best I see 3-1, which just like the Sailfish would put them in contention for the playoff spots because the ASFC is nearly a win better across the conference right now.
9:
(-3)Record: 3-5
Record in Last 4 Games: 3-1
Point Differential: -2.8 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 30-21 win at Chicago
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 23-10 loss at New Orleans
There was a reason I didn't trust this team. Boasting a bad offense and a barely below average defense, basically the opposite of the Butchers, this team has arguably looked better over the last 4 weeks than the first 4, considering that they came a 2 point conversion away from tying the game against the Wraiths and haven't looked quite as hopeless as they did against the Hawks. But they came close in their losses out of conference against the Second Line and the Outlaws. That Second Line loss in particular basically assured that I'm putting a team I'm not going to bother doing a next 4 game writeup for a spot over them.
Their next 4 games are almost evenly split; they've got a home and away set against the worst their conference has to offer in the Sailfish and Yeti, followed by a home and away set against 2 of the top 5 teams in the league in the Hawks and Otters. It feels hard to give them better than a 2-2 record here, and that's not really good when I think it's likely that one of their fellow 3-5 teams goes 3-1 at the same time.
8:
(+3)Record: 2-6
Record in Last 4 Games: 2-2
Point Differential: -3.7 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 16-14 loss at Arizona
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 51-23 loss at Orange County
If I were to just cover the last 3 games, then this team would actually be one of the most impressive over that stretch, with a 2 point loss to arguably top of the league Arizona and big wins in their other 2 games. Granted, both of them are against fellow below average teams, but they beat Berlin and Honolulu by double digits and generally seem to have turned a corner since the signing of new acquisitions. The main issue for this team is that they're unlikely to go 8-0 the rest of the way, and even if they did that still might not be enough to make it into the playoffs with how stacked the top 4 teams of the conference are. They are the exact same number of games outside the Playoff spots that they would be at 0-8 in the NSFC.
7:
(-3)Record: 5-3
Record in Last 4 Games: 2-2
Point Differential: +4.5
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 18-17 loss at San Jose
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 18-13 loss vs Cape Town
The Wraiths are still the 2nd seed in the conference, same as they were last time. They are still well on their way to making a playoff spot, still 2 games up on the people outside of the playoffs entirely, and still have not had a convincing game since Week 3. It's now past Week 8. Sure, 3 of their 4 games were on the road, sure, the San Jose game was absolutely a great performance that they barely lost, sure, they are still a game up on the team directly in front of them on these rankings, but the fact remains that they were a 2 point conversion failure away from going to Overtime against the Fire Salamanders, took a last minute long touchdown pass to beat Chicago, and their entire offensive production against the Crash was basically a single 55 yard run. Outside of that they averaged less than 5 yards per pass attempt and less than 3 yards per run. When you got that stymied at home, it's difficult to put you over that very same team, especially when you had multiple chances to stake your claim over inferior teams and pointedly did not.
Speaking of chances to stake your claim over inferior teams, the next 4 games might be the easiest stretch of 4 any team has. Going away to the Crash could be a loss, but the other 3 games are against bottom 5 teams at home in the Butchers, the Silverbacks, and the Yeti. This should be an easy 3-1 or even 4-0 stretch that might catapult the Wraiths into 1st seed contention.
6:
(+2)Record: 4-4
Record in Last 4 Games: 3-1
Point Differential: +1.4 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 18-13 win at Yellowknife
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 16-6 loss at Orange County
Easily the most impressive team in the NSFC over the last 4 games, the Crash have managed to drag one of the presumptive titans of the conference down towards their level, win somewhat comfortably against the bottom 2 of their conference, and not get completely embarrassed, at least on defense, by the team that may have become the single strongest in the league with their trade acquisitions in Orange County. Still, this is a very very lopsided team; their offense is the 2nd worst in the entire league, only the Hahalua have less points per game, but their defense is better than all but the Hawks and the Sabercats so far this season.
Their next 4 games are pretty rough; going away to face the resurgent and retooled Second Line, home against the Wraiths and the Sabercats, then away against the Butchers to round things off. An 0-4 record isn't out of the question with that slate of games, though I dearly hope it doesn't come to pass. I think they top out at 3-1; it's hard to judge the Second Line right now with who they've faced and where, and the team's defense is talented enough to hold people in check. I don't think 3-1 is all too likely though.
5:
(-3)Record: 6-2
Record in Last 4 Games: 2-2
Point Differential: +8.8 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 40-20 win at Honolulu
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 14-9 loss at Sarasota
Maybe I'm being a bit harsh to this team, having them this low, but the loss to the Sailfish really stings here. By point differential, this is the best team in the league, but if there was ever a season to punish one team for having a much, much easier strength of schedule due to being in a much, much easier conference, and a cross conference game against the dregs of that conference, then it's now. It's also hard to specifically put this team above a team that beat them before a trade that boosted them to the upper echelons of the league, IN Baltimore. Baltimore boasts the T-2nd best offense and the T-best defense by points, though they're much worse on both fronts by yardage.
Baltimore's next 4 games include the toughest 2 on their schedule arguably all season. After an away day to the Yeti, they face both the Sabercats (away) and the Copperheads (at home) in back to back weeks. They round out their schedule with a much easier opponent at home, the Fire Salamanders. A 2-2 stretch might put their first seed in jeopardy if they follow that up with a loss to either the Wraiths or the Crash.
4:
(-3)Record: 6-2
Record in Last 4 Games: 2-2
Point Differential: +6.0 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 18-17 win vs Yellowknife
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 33-20 loss at Austin
The top 4 teams in the ASFC all have arguments to be above or below other teams. While the Sabercats have in general cooled off tremendously from their first 4 games, they haven't cooled off enough to not still be up here; tough losses against the Outlaws and the Copperheads away keep their record in check, and their win over Yellowknife was the farthest thing from comfortable, but this is still a team in a playoff spot in one of the most difficult conferences to say that in halfway through the season, maybe ever. The other half of the tied best defense, and the 6th best offense, the Sabercats have only let a team score more than 20 on them once, but were unable to get more than 20 points themselves in their last 3 games against stiff competition.
Their next 4 games are tough, seeing them face 3 current playoff teams and the Silverbacks, but they do have the advantage of facing the harder 2 teams, the Hawks and the Copperheads, at home, and their only away day is against the Crash. Going 4-0 is a distinct possibility and would put the Sabercats in prime position for their first playoff berth in nearly a decade. Meanwhile, going 1-3 or 2-2 might see them as the odd man out of the 4 headed monster currently at the top of the ASFC.
3:
(+2)Record: 7-1
Record in Last 4 Games: 3-1
Point Differential: +6.8 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 33-20 win vs San Jose
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 30-13 loss at Orange County
From here on out, every team has an argument to be at the top. I was originally going to have this team in 2nd, but the collapse in the 4th quarter of the Otters game was too much to bear; going from winning to losing by 3 possessions is not exactly the kind of feat you're trying to achieve. The Copperheads have the tied for 2nd best offense, and the 6th best defense by points, but actually surpass that in their yardage marks at 2nd and 1st per game. This is just a really well rounded and good team, currently leading the most top heavy conference I've ever seen on a head to head win. With all of that in mind, why aren't they 2nd at least? Because the team above them just had a more impressive set of performances recently and as a tiebreaker, beats them out in point differential by a pretty significant margin.
2:
(+1)Record: 7-1
Record in Last 4 Games: 4-0
Point Differential: +8.1 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 17-10 win vs San Jose
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 16-14 win vs New Orleans
On one hand, this team has been extremely shaky in their last 2 games against bad teams; the pre-Tanksgiving New Orleans was within 10 yards of a game winning field goal chance before a sack fumble basically won the game for the Outlaws, and they let the Yeti come back and force Overtime after being down 2 possessions at the start of the 4th. But it's hard to argue with the 5 win streak this team is on, and their other 2 games were at least really good; beating San Jose and demolishing Berlin in Berlin. Being owners of the single best offense in the league and the 4th best defense is a mark only the Hawks can compare themselves to, and the Hawks obviously had a much easier schedule so far.
Their next 4 games do include more opportunities for them to actually slip up, with away days to the Silverbacks and the Sailfish. They also have a home game against the Hahalua, but that's not the matchup everyone has their calendars circled for. Next week we get to see the team that I would have had at the number 1 spot last week take on the new number 1 in their own backyard. Going to Orange County should be a fight, but even with a loss there this team should go 3-1 in the next section of schedule.
1:
(+6)Record: 6-2
Record in Last 4 Games: 4-0
Point Differential: +6.0 per game
Best Result in Last 4 Games: 30-13 win vs Austin
Worst Result in Last 4 Games: 38-34 win at Baltimore
By record and point differential this team is lower, sure. They're merely tied for 4th in point differential and tied for 3rd in record. I have them directly above the 2 teams that have beaten them so far this season. But this team has rebuilt and has had by far the most impressive last 4 weeks of any team in the league. Their worst performance is beating a 6-2 team in their house by 4, thanks to a 10 point comeback with 5 minutes to go. Every other performance has been amazing: utterly stomping the pre-trade Second Line 51-23 and completely shutting down the offense of the Crash 16-6 are their less impressive performances when compared to their 4th quarter beatdown of the Copperheads. The Second Line stomping and Baltimore win even came before the trade that gave this team two key pieces in Battle Angel and Liath Squirrel. This team "merely" has the 4th best offense and the 5th best defense, but no team has looked anywhere near as good over these past 5 weeks, not even their fellow team on a 5 game win streak in the Outlaws.
The Otters definitely have a hard and an easy half of their schedule in the 8 games left, and coming up is the harder one. They host Arizona, and follow that up with games that could easily trip them up away to Austin, to Berlin, and to new look NOLA. I think a 3-1 is the likeliest outcome, which could still end up leaving the Otters out in the cold depending on if the conferences continue to be just as lopsided as they are now.
![[Image: ChickenLips.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/ChickenLips.gif)
